Mr2Saint

Chris Carson 2018 Outlook

Recommended Posts

5 minutes ago, erik vulaj said:

borderliner rb1/rb2... detroit has given up 6th most fantasy pnts to rbs. the lions will always be bad so always play their opponent! lol

There's not a ranking outside of chriscarson.com that has him ranked as a borderline RB1 this week.

  • Like 1
  • Haha 4

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
15 minutes ago, BGDDYKWL said:

There's not a ranking outside of chriscarson.com that has him ranked as a borderline RB1 this week.

 

Dave Richard of CBS has him ranked at 16. Jamey Eisenberg and Heath Cummings has him at 18 in Standard.

 

FantasyPros has him at 18.

 

I've seen way worse offenses than someone moving Carson up a " few spots" on their own individual rankings.

Edited by nonstopfan

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Pat Fitzmaurice has him at #14 in standard, and is ranked #12 on the season in the FantasyPros experts pool. So do Mauricio Gutierrez and Andrew Seifter (also having decent seasons). Brad Evans ... I guess he kinda counts despite the bluster ... actually has him at #8, which is IMO too high, but the point is some people see him pushing on the upper RB2/ lower RB1 bubble this week. The average seems to be around 19, true, but it's not unanimous.

  • Like 1

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
4 minutes ago, TrueToTheBlue said:

I imagine the Lions getting snacks will help their run D though 

 

Not this week

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
2 hours ago, nonstopfan said:

 

Dave Richard of CBS has him ranked at 16. Jamey Eisenberg and Heath Cummings has him at 18 in Standard.

 

FantasyPros has him at 18.

I'm so used to leagues these days being half to full PPR that I wasn't even thinking standard. But yes, in standard I could certainly understand that ranking. With so many RBs catching balls, and Carson essentially catching none, I can't see him cracking the top 18 in anything outside of a straight standard scoring league.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

 

1 hour ago, cnewbykkn said:
  1 hour ago, TrueToTheBlue said:

I imagine the Lions getting snacks will help their run D though 

1 hour ago, cnewbykkn said:

 

Not this week

 

Why not ?   Snacks lines up against the center every week no matter which team he plays for.  

 

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Penny was limited at Wednesday's practice due to a finger injury, John Boyle of the Seahawks' official site reports.

On the heels of 70 yards from scrimmage Week 6 and a subsequent bye, Penny is tending to a finger concern of some sort. His ability to practice in some capacity Wednesday is an encouraging sign, but he would allay all concerns with a full session before week's end.

 

--looks like its a signal it's going to be a lot of Carson and Davis

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

You guys talking about rankings? ESPN has him at 12 in standard. I own him and I like Carson but this rotation does have me worried. Going to have to see how it plays out.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
8 hours ago, BGDDYKWL said:

I got crucified for this a few weeks ago but outside of a 12-teamer and bad bye week situation he's still unstartable. So now we're talking a guy in a full on committee who you had to sit due to injury, who got you 5.9 points in full PPR in his last game, who you then had to sit because of a bye, who you now have to sit to see how he will be used moving forward.

 

I hate to call people out. But this is just a stupid statement. He's not in a full on committee. A Jones and R Jones are in a committee. Clement is in a committee etc. Carson is the lead back thats giving up more touches than most would like. Its not a full on committee. But it is something of concern. To say he's unstartable its a ridiculous statement at this point. You bringing up PPR. Of course JAGS are more relevant. Go start Buck Allen. He may score more in full blown PPR. In standard where only yards and TDs count Carson is a RB2.

Edited by StevenSC400

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
4 minutes ago, StevenSC400 said:

 

I hate to call people out. But this is just a stupid statement. He's not in a full on committee. A Jones and R Jones is in a committee. Clement is in a committee etc. Carson is the lead back thats giving up more touches than most would like. Its not a full on committee. But it is something of concern. To say he's unstartable its a ridiculous statement at this point.

 

I agree. The issue with a committee is that usually it leads to insufficient touches. Even if you want to say Carson is in a committee (which is debatable) he has had 65 carries and averaged over 90 ypg in his past 3 starts so touches (and production) haven't been an issue. The Seahawks have had a lot more success once they decided to take a more run-heavy approach so I don't see them getting away from it anytime soon. The biggest concern with Carson is the health. I view him as a mid-range RB2 and I think you would be hard pressed to name 20 RBs you would prefer over him let alone render him completely unstartable particularly this week with a good matchup. 

 

Yeah Carson had a bad game last week (wasn't completely his fault since Seahawks rested him in a blow out) but that doesn't make him unstartable. RB1s like Zeke, Kamara and Hunt have all had bad weeks, it happens. Carsons volume and involvement as well as his past production shows that when he is healthy he is more likely than most RBs outside of the top 15 or so to put up a good score. 

  • Like 1

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
1 minute ago, Jaw1 said:

 

I agree. The issue with a committee is that usually it leads to insufficient touches. Even if you want to say Carson is in a committee (which is debatable) he has had 65 carries and averaged over 90 ypg in his past 3 starts so touches (and production) haven't been an issue. The Seahawks have had a lot more success once they decided to take a more run-heavy approach so I don't see them getting away from it anytime soon. The biggest concern with Carson is the health. I view him as a mid-range RB2 and I think you would be hard pressed to name 20 RBs you would prefer over him let alone render him completely unstartable particularly this week with a good matchup. 

 

Yeah Carson had a bad game last week (wasn't completely his fault since Seahawks rested him in a blow out) but that doesn't make him unstartable. RB1s like Zeke, Kamara and Hunt have all had bad weeks, it happens. Carsons volume and involvement as well as his past production shows that when he is healthy he is more likely than most RBs outside of the top 15 or so to put up a good score. 

 

I watched that whole game and I watch football in general. For people that just check the box score it looked mediocre at best. However he had so many solid runs that got called back. He had a nice 20 yards gain alone that I remember where he just trucked over linebackers getting called back. A TD called back. It was a hard game to watch. But I liked what I saw. Got to look at more than a box score sometimes. Guy is the real deal. His health is my only concern. Even 1 missed game could put him back.

  • Like 1

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
9 hours ago, StevenSC400 said:

 

I hate to call people out. But this is just a stupid statement. He's not in a full on committee. A Jones and R Jones are in a committee. Clement is in a committee etc. Carson is the lead back thats giving up more touches than most would like. Its not a full on committee. But it is something of concern. To say he's unstartable its a ridiculous statement at this point. You bringing up PPR. Of course JAGS are more relevant. Go start Buck Allen. He may score more in full blown PPR. In standard where only yards and TDs count Carson is a RB2.

 

 

 Market share of the offense: carries+targets

Mike Davis  4-1-25-14-9 = 53      31.5% share  
Penney   12-12-3-9-0-11 = 47      29% share    
Carson  12-7-34-20-14 =  87       54.7%  share 

 

 

Not sure how you define committe but this looks like a rbbc, particularly with the deliberate uptick in Davis market share and the insistence on the coaching staff to keep Penny involved. 

Pure bellcow rb's get+80% market share and lead rb's in a rbbc get at least 60%.  Gamescript should not affect that lead rb market share but in SEA rotation it does

What keeps carson relevant is that SEA is ranked #3 in run plays and are committed to it, so the volume is always going tobe there for any rb in that backfield but good luck figuring out the splits.

The problem is week to week you can't reliably predict if he will get 30% or 70% of the market share, which makes him a weekly rb3/flex  with rb2 upside.

 

 

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
55 minutes ago, dashoe said:

 

 

 Market share of the offense: carries+targets

Mike Davis  4-1-25-14-9 = 53      31.5% share  
Penney   12-12-3-9-0-11 = 47      29% share    
Carson  12-7-34-20-14 =  87       54.7%  share 

You realize how misleading this is since they all didn't play every game, right?

The weeks that need to be looked at are 2, 3, 6, and 7.

 

Mike Davis 4-1-14-9 = 28     21.7% share

Penney 12-3-0-11 = 26         20.2% share

Carson 7-34-20-14 = 75       58.1% share

 

EDIT: A lot of your comments are still relevant in spite of your calculations being inaccurate and irrelevant.

Edited by jbj
  • Like 4

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
47 minutes ago, dashoe said:

 

 

 Market share of the offense: carries+targets

Mike Davis  4-1-25-14-9 = 53      31.5% share  
Penney   12-12-3-9-0-11 = 47      29% share    
Carson  12-7-34-20-14 =  87       54.7%  share 

 

 

Not sure how you define committe but this looks like a rbbc, particularly with the deliberate uptick in Davis market share and the insistence on the coaching staff to keep Penny involved. 

Pure bellcow rb's get+80% market share and lead rb's in a rbbc get at least 60%.  Gamescript should not affect that lead rb market share but in SEA rotation it does

What keeps carson relevant is that SEA is ranked #3 in run plays and are committed to it, so the volume is always going tobe there for any rb in that backfield but good luck figuring out the splits.

The problem is week to week you can't reliably predict if he will get 30% or 70% of the market share, which makes him a weekly rb3/flex  with rb2 upside.

 

 

 

I think there's a bit more due diligence needed to be done on these touch counts than just adding up the totals for the year.  There are plenty of nuances and game scripting at play that I think we need to consider to fully evaluate this.

 

Week 1 - Mike Davis was not active, the game had horrible flow, and I think Carroll was still unsure how he was going to use his RBs.  In the grand scheme of how this will play out ROS (what we care about in fantasy) this game doesn't hold much relevance, but Carson and Penny split touches 50/50.

 

Week 2 - Davis was active but a small player in the backfield.  Another horrible game with not much running or success in general offensively.  Again I don't think numbers from this game mean much to any player's usage going forward.

 

Week 3 - Here's where things got interesting - the Seahawks finally committed to running the ball, Carson was unsurprisingly a lot more effective when he was able to get into the flow, and he ended up with 89% of the touches.  Now I don't think that's indicative of how heavy of a workload Carson will get moving forward, but it was an important development as this was the first game Carroll really chose to ride Carson over Penny.  And after RBs seeing only 24 and 23 touches the first two weeks, this week they saw 38.

 

Week 4 - After such a great Week 3, of course Carson is injured and is out.  Mike Davis gets the ball 25 times (good for 74% of the workload) as Carroll again shies away from using Penny, and Davis does a good job running the ball.  Just as it looked like Carson had left Penny in the dust, now comes in a new contender.  34 touches to RBs kept the increased onus on the ground game.

 

Week 5 - Carson back and with the success of Davis in the previous week, Carroll used both and completely ignored Penny, despite him being active.  Carson saw 20 touches while Davis saw 14, and both were very effective, with Davis putting up 5.6 YPC and Carson 6.1 YPC.  Again 34 RB touches.  This is starting to look like a 2-RB race.

 

Week 6 - On the surface of reading the box score, you'd think this was taking a turn as more of a 3-way committee again, with Carson getting 14 touches to Penny's 11 and Davis' 9.  However if you look closer at the game script and who got touches at what points of the game, it still points to Penny being an afterthought.  Carson had 9 of his 14 touches in the 1st half, and none in the 4th quarter after going up 27-0.  Penny only had 3 touches in the first 3 quarters, and 8 in the 4th quarter when they were just running out the clock.  The take-away from this game for me is not that the touches were split 14-11-9 at the end of the game, but that they were split 14-8-3 in the first three quarters when Carroll still had his foot on the gas.  Another week of 34 total RB touches, and if the game stayed competitive for 4 quarters Carson was on pace for another 19-20 touches.

 

So my reading of the tea leaves is this:

- everything changed in Week 3

- since Week 3 Penny has been an afterthought, only getting significant touches in the 4th quarter of a blowout.  

- Davis put pressure on Carson in Week 4 when he was out, but Carson has out-played Davis since, and each subsequent game he has gained a larger piece of the pie back from Davis.

- Since Week 3 Seattle has consistently given RBs 34+ touches a game, with the "lead" back (Davis W4, Carson W5 and W6) seeing about 20 touches a game.  Usage in the past two weeks says Carson is that lead guy, and if anything he is slowly opening a bigger gap between himself and Davis.

 

Conclusion:

Carson will continue to get around 20 touches per game, except in very odd game scripts (like going up by almost 30 points).  I don't care about the semantics of whether it's RBBC or lead/secondary or whatever, the bottom line is - if Carson is getting 20 touches a game going forward, like everything is pointing to, he will be a very viable RB2 in fantasy.  20 touches is plenty of a back like Carson to do some damage and put up some good numbers.

  • Like 1

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
33 minutes ago, jbj said:

You realize how misleading this is since they all didn't play every game, right?

The weeks that need to be looked at are 2, 3, 6, and 7.

 

Mike Davis 4-1-14-9 = 28     21.7% share

Penney 12-3-0-11 = 26         20.2% share

Carson 7-34-20-14 = 75       58.1% share

 

EDIT: A lot of your comments are still relevant in spite of your calculations being inaccurate and irrelevant.

 

The point is sound whichever way you want to slice and dice the data. The coaching staff has been inconsistent with their approach to weekly distribution. What has been apparent is they are ery intent on getting penny touches regardless of his production. i don't see that as a positive for Carson or Davis, I see that as a messy and unpredicatable situation

Market share accounts for games played they each played, no need to break out every single game which is why there is the breakout  of touches, if u want to do that calculation. that the nice thing about data you can work with it in multiple ways but don't expect someone to exhaust every application of it for u.:)

Edited by dashoe

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
41 minutes ago, dashoe said:

 

 The coaching staff has been inconsistent with their approach to weekly distribution.

 

The coaching staff is 'inconsistent' when they don't give carries to a guy who's injured and out for the week?

 

Darn wishy washy coaches, not playing guys who aren't at the game. :)

  • Like 1

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
52 minutes ago, dashoe said:

 

The point is sound whichever way you want to slice and dice the data. The coaching staff has been inconsistent with their approach to weekly distribution. What has been apparent is they are ery intent on getting penny touches regardless of his production. i don't see that as a positive for Carson or Davis, I see that as a messy and unpredicatable situation

Market share accounts for games played they each played, no need to break out every single game which is why there is the breakout  of touches, if u want to do that calculation. that the nice thing about data you can work with it in multiple ways but don't expect someone to exhaust every application of it for u.:)

 

I don't see that at all.  After sharing touches in Weeks 1 and 2 with Carson, he had 3 in Week 3.  Then up to 9 in Week 4 because Carson was out injured and they couldn't give the ball to Mike Davis 35 times.  Week 5 he had 0 touches while being active.  Then Week 6 he got 11, pretty much every one in the 4th quarter up 27-0 while resting Carson and Davis.

 

Penny is a distant third in this backfield, and is essentially just a run-out-the-clock punching bag at this point.  Nothing indicates they're intent at all on getting him touches, other than to save miles on their top 2 RB's in a blowout.

  • Like 1

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Hoping this guy has a big game so I can t trade. Can’t trust this head coach to run let alone with Chris 

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
Just now, BudFox said:

Hoping this guy has a big game so I can t trade. Can’t trust this head coach to run let alone with Chris 

 

Seahawks have literally been one of the most run-heavy teams the past few weeks (they looked awful the first 2 weeks when they weren't but since they switched they have been a competitive team and now are in the wild card conversation) and Carson has averaged over 20 touches per game since the Seahawks made the switch (excluding the game he sat out due to injury, and including last game where he was rested in a blow out). If you can't trust him to get touches I'm not sure who you are going to trade for outside of the clear RB1 bellcows (which would take significantly more than Carson to get) that would make you feel more confident. 

  • Like 1

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Join the conversation

You can post now and register later. If you have an account, sign in now to post with your account.

Guest
Reply to this topic...

×   Pasted as rich text.   Paste as plain text instead

  Only 75 emoji are allowed.

×   Your link has been automatically embedded.   Display as a link instead

×   Your previous content has been restored.   Clear editor

×   You cannot paste images directly. Upload or insert images from URL.

Loading...