Mr2Saint

Chris Carson 2018 Outlook

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2 hours ago, Jaw1 said:

Dude was a complete beast down the stretch. He never really got the respect he deserved this year thanks to the perceived injury risk and the unfounded belief that "who knows who Carroll is going to use next week" (The answer has been basically been Carson since last season with the only exception being when he was injured). Thanks to concerns about health and Penny I expect him to be undervalued again next year. 

 

Will be very interesting to see where he gets ranked next year for sure.  I think the injury concerns are very legitimate though, especially once his workload starts getting heavy in the 20+ carries area.  In most those games I see him tweak something and have to miss snaps - I know that's not uncommon for players to get nicked up here and there, but I feel it happens to him a lot more than other RBs that are on the field even more than he is.  Or the next game after a 20-25+ carry workload he'll injure something (like he did in week 3 after 32 carries and 72% snap share, and in week 9 after 25 carries and 67% snap share the week before).  After that, Pete wisely kept him more fresh in the 15-20 carry area, hovering around 50% snaps, and I think that's probably the best role for him to thrive and most importantly stay available every week.  No doubt Pete and the staff have recognized this and hopefully will aim to keep utilizing him as such next year too.  I know most fantasy owners want their players to be on the field more, but for me, I'd rather have them available every week and productive.  Being a 50% snap share back will knock him down a bit in the ranks.  He's also not a sexy runner that can get you huge explosive plays, he just grinds out yardage and is a steady play, which will probably ding him a bit when it comes to pre-draft rankings too.

 

I'd wager he ends up being priced at around $30.  I only do auction leagues so I dont know what that would be translated into snake ADP, but it'd be approximately where Henry and Drake were going coming into this year.  Which seems like a fair price to me.

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920x920.jpg

 

Guy is a specimen.  7th round pick out of Oklahoma State.   Totally overlooked by NFL scouts due to the pass 1st, pass 2nd, pass 3rd offense his team ran in college.  Will be a force for years if he can stay healthy, his running style is taxing.

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1 hour ago, Bryce84 said:

 

Will be very interesting to see where he gets ranked next year for sure.  I think the injury concerns are very legitimate though, especially once his workload starts getting heavy in the 20+ carries area.  In most those games I see him tweak something and have to miss snaps - I know that's not uncommon for players to get nicked up here and there, but I feel it happens to him a lot more than other RBs that are on the field even more than he is.  Or the next game after a 20-25+ carry workload he'll injure something (like he did in week 3 after 32 carries and 72% snap share, and in week 9 after 25 carries and 67% snap share the week before).  After that, Pete wisely kept him more fresh in the 15-20 carry area, hovering around 50% snaps, and I think that's probably the best role for him to thrive and most importantly stay available every week.  No doubt Pete and the staff have recognized this and hopefully will aim to keep utilizing him as such next year too.  I know most fantasy owners want their players to be on the field more, but for me, I'd rather have them available every week and productive.  Being a 50% snap share back will knock him down a bit in the ranks.  He's also not a sexy runner that can get you huge explosive plays, he just grinds out yardage and is a steady play, which will probably ding him a bit when it comes to pre-draft rankings too.

 

I'd wager he ends up being priced at around $30.  I only do auction leagues so I dont know what that would be translated into snake ADP, but it'd be approximately where Henry and Drake were going coming into this year.  Which seems like a fair price to me.

Great analysis dude.

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3 hours ago, OmegaRed88 said:

920x920.jpg

 

Guy is a specimen.  7th round pick out of Oklahoma State.   Totally overlooked by NFL scouts due to the pass 1st, pass 2nd, pass 3rd offense his team ran in college.  Will be a force for years if he can stay healthy, his running style is taxing.

 

When you read the early pages of this thread, you'll see so many people that failed to give Carson the respect he deserves, some pushing Penny as the next coming, others dismissing Carson because of his lack of draft pedigree. Chris Carson's toughness and talent in 2018 has earned and demands respect. He demolished his ADP and was a lot of fun to watch this year.

 

7Po1.gif

 

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55 minutes ago, cohenstantinople said:

 

When you read the early pages of this thread, you'll see so many people that failed to give Carson the respect he deserves, some pushing Penny as the next coming, others dismissing Carson because of his lack of draft pedigree. Chris Carson's toughness and talent in 2018 has earned and demands respect. He demolished his ADP and was a lot of fun to watch this year.

 

7Po1.gif

 

Penny fans were a cancer all year long. Never seen so many people be so ruthlessly attached to a rookie. Carson proved himself in the end. 

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1 hour ago, oliminator123 said:

Carson proved himself in the end. 

 

And in the beginning and middle, too, with help from his anti-gravity cleats.

 

carsonleapCAR

 

 

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2 hours ago, oliminator123 said:

Penny fans were a cancer all year long. Never seen so many people be so ruthlessly attached to a rookie. Carson proved himself in the end. 

 

They are probably still clamoring that you can't trust Carson and that Penny is about to take over...

 

 

Incredible levels of delusion from some Penny fans, even midway in to the season they were still forecasting Carson's demise.

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Just a dream for someone like me who went zero rb. Yeah this is the definition of a league winner with 250 total yards and 3 TD's in the semi and final weeks.

 

I think the other guy who said he will go about where Drake went is a pretty fair comparison, the lack of passing game involvement is the only drawback. The Seahawks must be shooting themselves for taking Penny in the 1st round when they had a guy like this in-house.

 

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13 hours ago, Bryce84 said:

 

Will be very interesting to see where he gets ranked next year for sure.  I think the injury concerns are very legitimate though, especially once his workload starts getting heavy in the 20+ carries area.  In most those games I see him tweak something and have to miss snaps - I know that's not uncommon for players to get nicked up here and there, but I feel it happens to him a lot more than other RBs that are on the field even more than he is.  Or the next game after a 20-25+ carry workload he'll injure something (like he did in week 3 after 32 carries and 72% snap share, and in week 9 after 25 carries and 67% snap share the week before).  After that, Pete wisely kept him more fresh in the 15-20 carry area, hovering around 50% snaps, and I think that's probably the best role for him to thrive and most importantly stay available every week.  No doubt Pete and the staff have recognized this and hopefully will aim to keep utilizing him as such next year too.  I know most fantasy owners want their players to be on the field more, but for me, I'd rather have them available every week and productive.  Being a 50% snap share back will knock him down a bit in the ranks.  He's also not a sexy runner that can get you huge explosive plays, he just grinds out yardage and is a steady play, which will probably ding him a bit when it comes to pre-draft rankings too.

 

I'd wager he ends up being priced at around $30.  I only do auction leagues so I dont know what that would be translated into snake ADP, but it'd be approximately where Henry and Drake were going coming into this year.  Which seems like a fair price to me.

 

I agree with the workload/injury concerns but $30 (assuming $200) seems a bit rich to me. Henry and Drake were like 4th rounders so I have him lower than that. I'm not sure he'll be drafted as a top 20 RB, I'm thinking like Ingram, Miller, Lynch, Hyde area which I'm assuming was like high teens based on a $200 budget.

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13 hours ago, OmegaRed88 said:

920x920.jpg

 

Guy is a specimen.  7th round pick out of Oklahoma State.   Totally overlooked by NFL scouts due to the pass 1st, pass 2nd, pass 3rd offense his team ran in college.  Will be a force for years if he can stay healthy, his running style is taxing.

 

he can slap my girl's a** and there's not a goddamn thing i can do about it but thank him for his service. 

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14 hours ago, OmegaRed88 said:

920x920.jpg

 

Guy is a specimen.  7th round pick out of Oklahoma State.   Totally overlooked by NFL scouts due to the pass 1st, pass 2nd, pass 3rd offense his team ran in college.  Will be a force for years if he can stay healthy, his running style is taxing.

Great post right here.  Pete Carroll has gone out of his way in post game press conferences to gush over Carson.  He said Carson coming off that horrid ankle injury last year showed up as the best guy in shape of any player on Seahawks roster.  A guy like Carson will have probably one chance at big second contract and best believe he’ll probably run through as many people as possible until he’s paid.  He should be firmly an RB1 next year.  

Edited by Cmilne23

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After this preseason I was all on team carson and rage dropped him after 2 weeks in a few leagues and held onto him in others. Big time regret dropping him. In 1 league where i started wr with julio nad michael thomas next 4 picks were royce freeman jay ajayi chris carson rex burkhead trying to hit on a rb lol. dropped carson after 2 weeks yet held onto royce freeman. I am interested in pairing him with penny in 2019 athough mike davis also would be interesting if he ever got 20 touches per game in this seattle offense. 

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3 hours ago, ilovepelas said:

After this preseason I was all on team carson and rage dropped him after 2 weeks in a few leagues and held onto him in others. Big time regret dropping him. In 1 league where i started wr with julio nad michael thomas next 4 picks were royce freeman jay ajayi chris carson rex burkhead trying to hit on a rb lol. dropped carson after 2 weeks yet held onto royce freeman. I am interested in pairing him with penny in 2019 athough mike davis also would be interesting if he ever got 20 touches per game in this seattle offense. 

Chris Carson has been a stud in the making, can't help but root for him.  The rashaad penny draft pick muddied the waters some, but I think Pete Carroll has found his guy.  Something seems off about penny, I think he is the next t rich in terms of draft pedigree verse success in the nfl 

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8 minutes ago, 1972Miamidolphins said:

Chris Carson has been a stud in the making, can't help but root for him.  The rashaad penny draft pick muddied the waters some, but I think Pete Carroll has found his guy.  Something seems off about penny, I think he is the next t rich in terms of draft pedigree verse success in the nfl 

 

There is nothing off with Penny. SEA run game under Carroll has been a  zone running scheme.  Schotty was supposed to scrap it and go to a gap run scheme and it was assumed he would use a fullback and multiple TE's in his personnel packages which was very similar to the offense penney ran in college and a big reason of why they drafted him. Instead for whatever reasons(probably starting off 0-2) they kept most of the zone run and implemented some gap and schotty went single rb with no fullback and te's and used more wr packages. 

Carson learned the zone scheme last year and picked up the gap schemes. Penny has struggled in picking up the schemes to the coaches satisfaction. So basically Penney is a fish out of water in the current running scheme and if he doesnt adapt or if Schotty doesnt implement his full system and using a FB and TE -penney will probably failfail.

 

So if people were wondering why the coaches keep giving Penney touches that's the reason why he was the best rb for schotty new scheme but not petes old scheme. He is talent wise a better rb than Carson but in the current scheme he hasnt figured out how to adapt his skill set and is ultimately failing.  You have seen some flashes of his talent in games but he is not consistent the way Carson is consistent.  He is either going to take it up to the next level in the offseason or bust.

 

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12 minutes ago, 1972Miamidolphins said:

Chris Carson has been a stud in the making, can't help but root for him.  The rashaad penny draft pick muddied the waters some, but I think Pete Carroll has found his guy.  Something seems off about penny, I think he is the next t rich in terms of draft pedigree verse success in the nfl 

Penny has an eating problem.  Came into camp out of shape, kinda worked it out in the first half of the season but it surfaced again later before he got injured.  IMO if you don't have the discipline to even keep your body, your main tool to succeed, in top form then that is a non-starter.  Future is not bright for Penny unless he gets that figured out first and foremost.

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24 minutes ago, dashoe said:

 

There is nothing off with Penny. SEA run game under Carroll has been a  zone running scheme.  Schotty was supposed to scrap it and go to a gap run scheme and it was assumed he would use a fullback and multiple TE's in his personnel packages which was very similar to the offense penney ran in college and a big reason of why they drafted him. Instead for whatever reasons(probably starting off 0-2) they kept most of the zone run and implemented some gap and schotty went single rb with no fullback and te's and used more wr packages. 

Carson learned the zone scheme last year and picked up the gap schemes. Penny has struggled in picking up the schemes to the coaches satisfaction. So basically Penney is a fish out of water in the current running scheme and if he doesnt adapt or if Schotty doesnt implement his full system and using a FB and TE -penney will probably failfail.

 

So if people were wondering why the coaches keep giving Penney touches that's the reason why he was the best rb for schotty new scheme but not petes old scheme. He is talent wise a better rb than Carson but in the current scheme he hasnt figured out how to adapt his skill set and is ultimately failing.  You have seen some flashes of his talent in games but he is not consistent the way Carson is consistent.  He is either going to take it up to the next level in the offseason or bust.

 

Excellent post, I can't think that deep.  I like how towards the end of the season it seemed to me that Seattle figured it all out and did what they did best, which benefited the likes of russel, Carson and Baldwin.  So with what you say, any odds they trade penny and commit to Carson?

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3 minutes ago, 1972Miamidolphins said:

Excellent post, I can't think that deep.  I like how towards the end of the season it seemed to me that Seattle figured it all out and did what they did best, which benefited the likes of russel, Carson and Baldwin.  So with what you say, any odds they trade penny and commit to Carson?

 

 I doubt they trade either one and it will be a full on competition in the offseason and you have to keep an eye on what schotty does with  further changes to the offense in terms of do we see more gap and less zone as the players get more comfortable.

Currently what you see ids the type of football Petey Boy likes, heavy run, aggressive defense and good special teams play that keeps the offense and defense in optimal field positions.

Bottom line is your new OC is not going to give up on his hand picked rb for the style of offense he eventually wants to run.

 

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On 12/24/2018 at 1:48 AM, OmegaRed88 said:

920x920.jpg

 

Guy is a specimen.  7th round pick out of Oklahoma State.   Totally overlooked by NFL scouts due to the pass 1st, pass 2nd, pass 3rd offense his team ran in college.  Will be a force for years if he can stay healthy, his running style is taxing.

 

On 12/24/2018 at 9:51 PM, dashoe said:

 

So if people were wondering why the coaches keep giving Penney touches that's the reason why he was the best rb for schotty new scheme but not petes old scheme. He is talent wise a better rb than Carson but in the current scheme he hasnt figured out how to adapt his skill set and is ultimately failing.  You have seen some flashes of his talent in games but he is not consistent the way Carson is consistent.  He is either going to take it up to the next level in the offseason or bust.

 

 

On 12/24/2018 at 10:08 PM, OmegaRed88 said:

Penny has an eating problem.  Came into camp out of shape, kinda worked it out in the first half of the season but it surfaced again later before he got injured.  IMO if you don't have the discipline to even keep your body, your main tool to succeed, in top form then that is a non-starter.  Future is not bright for Penny unless he gets that figured out first and foremost.

Totally disagree that Penny is more talented than Carson. More top-end speed maybe, but that’s questionable with his extra weight. 

Carson can do everything a RB needs to do. Power, speed, ball security, & rarely goes down on 1st contact. He’s also a capable receiver when needed & that team loves him. 

Penny came in to camp out of shape & still looked like a bowling ball 2 months later. Looked tentative most of the year, not as powerful, & think he needs work in the passing game. 

Carroll finally figured out who is best RB is. He’s proven he doesn’t care about draft position or big contracts when he started Wilson over Flynn. Penny & Davis will be clear backups to Carson in camp next year, with McKissic playing most of his snaps at WR (if they keep him). I won’t target Carson as my RB1, but I’m definitely buying as my RB2

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On 12/24/2018 at 4:48 AM, OmegaRed88 said:

 

 

Guy is a specimen.  7th round pick out of Oklahoma State.   Totally overlooked by NFL scouts due to the pass 1st, pass 2nd, pass 3rd offense his team ran in college.  

 

That's so far from the truth, no need to create stuff to embellish and  substantiate his current accomplishments.

 

1. he was a juco transfer

2. he was injured for 4 of his college games = 1/3 of the college season

3. He lacked the burst and change of direction on film that NFL scouts salivate over 

4. he shared the backfield with Justice Hill who was an All American

 

So being a rb in OSU's offensive scheme is not the reason scouts downgraded him for the draft.  Playing for Gundy i would argue raised his profile enough to get him a combine invite where he excelled and raised his draft stock

Edited by dashoe

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Traded my 2019 1st round pick (12th of 14th) for Carson.

 

Hoping for at least 1,250 and 11 next year which isn't unreasonable considering he 1,029 and 8 this season

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18 hours ago, VB1228 said:

Traded my 2019 1st round pick (12th of 14th) for Carson.

 

Hoping for at least 1,250 and 11 next year which isn't unreasonable considering he 1,029 and 8 this season

I think you did a very bad deal there.

1) I don't think he's top-12 yet

2) He has 9 months to prove you wrong by getting injured, arrested, fat, lazy, traded, shot, rich winning the lottery or any of 100 other things that could completely nullify his value. 

 

And I say that as someone who got a championship out of this cat. I mean, he had a great season, but trading up for him already in December seems WAY early, unless there is something essential I don't know about your league settings.

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On 12/26/2018 at 3:17 PM, VB1228 said:

Traded my 2019 1st round pick (12th of 14th) for Carson.

 

Hoping for at least 1,250 and 11 next year which isn't unreasonable considering he 1,029 and 8 this season

Image result for you're so screwed gif

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On 12/26/2018 at 12:17 PM, VB1228 said:

Traded my 2019 1st round pick (12th of 14th) for Carson.

 

Hoping for at least 1,250 and 11 next year which isn't unreasonable considering he 1,029 and 8 this season

 

Well, this appears to be some kind of keeper league.  Are a bunch of top players being kept?  What is the likely quality of player that will be available at pick 12?  Depending on your keeper format the trade might be okay, but making the trade this early seems ill-advised.  

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