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Jerick McKinnon 2018 Outlook

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Definitely like a lot of things about McKinnon, especially the strength of schedule and pass catching.

 

However, just to play devil's advocate: since a lot of folks keep mentioning JMc's contract as an indication that he will be "the guy" and not get mired down in an RBBC, can anyone tell me the name of the RB Shanahan "pounded the table" for last year? I seriously can't remember his name. Seems like he could be involved too now that he's in his second year? Kyle's dad didn't earn the name "Satanahan" in fantasy circles for his backfield clarity. Is Kyle a chip off the old RB-Hell Rock?

 

Don't feel that strongly either way but wondering what folks think before I succumb to intoxications or the early summer hype trains.

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6 minutes ago, FreakFries said:

Definitely like a lot of things about McKinnon, especially the strength of schedule and pass catching.

 

However, just to play devil's advocate: since a lot of folks keep mentioning JMc's contract as an indication that he will be "the guy" and not get mired down in an RBBC, can anyone tell me the name of the RB Shanahan "pounded the table" for last year? I seriously can't remember his name. Seems like he could be involved too now that he's in his second year? Kyle's dad didn't earn the name "Satanahan" in fantasy circles for his backfield clarity. Is Kyle a chip off the old RB-Hell Rock?

 

Don't feel that strongly either way but wondering what folks think before I succumb to intoxications or the early summer hype trains.

Shanahan Sr's backfields were actually very good. Once Shanny Sr settled on a RB, that RB was going to put up over 1000 yards and score double digit TD's. He did it with a bunch of JAGs. The problem was in those seasons without a clear RB, Shanny Sr wouldn't let fantasy circles know until week one or two into the season. If Kyle is anything like his dad, McKinnon should be the lead back.

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20 minutes ago, FreakFries said:

However, just to play devil's advocate: since a lot of folks keep mentioning JMc's contract as an indication that he will be "the guy" and not get mired down in an RBBC, can anyone tell me the name of the RB Shanahan "pounded the table" for last year? I seriously can't remember his name.  

 

Don't feel that strongly either way but wondering what folks think before I succumb to intoxications or the early summer hype trains.

Joe Williams.    On the team- and seemingly competing for the backup role with Breida.   He’s a guy that was targeted last draft.  His rookie season didn’t pan out- fumbles and drops- but they do like him. 

 

10 minutes ago, devaster said:

Shanahan Sr's backfields were actually very good. Once Shanny Sr settled on a RB, that RB was going to put up over 1000 yards and score double digit TD's. He did it with a bunch of JAGs. The problem was in those seasons without a clear RB, Shanny Sr wouldn't let fantasy circles know until week one or two into the season. If Kyle is anything like his dad, McKinnon should be the lead back.

True  

M Shanny had 7 1000 yard backs posting 12 1000 yard seasons over his Denver career.   Then Morris ran for 1600 with Wsh. 

 

It is not the system we should be questioning- just McKinnon.  Can he hold up, can he be the 3 down back or is it destined to be a timeshare with an improved Williams.    Not sure.  Draft both 

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13 minutes ago, Impreza178 said:

Joe Williams.    On the team- and seemingly competing for the backup role with Breida.   He’s a guy that was targeted last draft.  His rookie season didn’t pan out- fumbles and drops- but they do like him. 

 

True  

M Shanny had 7 1000 yard backs posting 12 1000 yard seasons over his Denver career.   Then Morris ran for 1600 with Wsh. 

 

It is not the system we should be questioning- just McKinnon.  Can he hold up, can he be the 3 down back or is it destined to be a timeshare with an improved Williams.    Not sure.  Draft both 

 

I expect a timeshare. And I still expect him to be a top-8 RB. Super high floor.

 

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Well yeah, Mckinnon is going to have a backfield mate. He's not going to tote the rock 300+ times.

If we could get 200-220 carries and 60-80 receptions, he's going to be a fantasy monster just on volume. If he's actually good? Watch out.

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Part of what makes me feel so good about McKinnon is the coach and QB around him. They are both highly intelligent football minds who recognize the mismatch that a guy like McKinnon catching the ball creates for a defense and specifically linebackers. Opens up other things. Bake in the volume it seems like he's locked in for and the only real worry this guy has is injury.

 

I feel like for the long-term McKinnon owners would almost prefer someone else establish themselves and take some of the load off of him. He only needs 50-65% of the total carries and lock in his pass-catching role to secure top 15 status in ppr.

 

In a landscape of sketchy workloads and offenses, McKinnon is a good bet!

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I think at this point there's not much reason to doubt volume.  Can he score TD's?    Devonta Freeman was once the RB1 overall in this role, but he got there in part by tying for the league lead with 11 rush TD's.   McKinnon has 7 rush TD's in 4 seasons.    

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5 hours ago, BrianM said:

I think at this point there's not much reason to doubt volume.  Can he score TD's?    Devonta Freeman was once the RB1 overall in this role, but he got there in part by tying for the league lead with 11 rush TD's.   McKinnon has 7 rush TD's in 4 seasons.    

 

He was used sparingly around the goal line. Shanny basically said he intends for this guy to do everything. 

 

I think JMcK gonna be a super stud. 

 

I'm angry he displaced Hyde, but now I'm over my anger and want him on my team. 

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Thanks for that link.  McKinnon's quotes in there don't sound like they are coming from a player who's been told he will be part of a rbbc.

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I’m gonna have to side with ol common sense on this one and say they didn’t break the bank for a rb to use him mostly on 3rd downs. High ceiling and floor if you ask me I’m scooping him up in every 3rd round he’s available for me to get him. That offense should be pretty good too and defense still questionable. 

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See the thing is, there is a lot of hype surrounding this guy.  Many of you talk about drafting him in the 3rd round but if you really want him it's going to take a 2nd round pick.

 

I love people who say I'm going to take X player in X round.  Many of you must not play in shark leagues to know that strategy doesn't work a majority of the time.  

 

If you like a guy, take him where you want him to make sure he's on your team, otherwise you stand a high chance of being disappointed your tactic didn't work.  

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Posted (edited)

In PPR, who outside the first round in a 12 teamer is going to be more reliable?  CMC?  Freeman? McCoy? Howard?  As sure as the sun rises, JM is going to get a bunch of touches and targets every game in an offense that, health permitting, is almost certain to be productive.  He is going to produce chunk plays many weeks.  He is going to get plenty of chances in the RZ.  He has no competition for the lead role, and he will be the first guy up in every down, distance and 2 minute situation.  If you follow the team, you know that to be a fact.

 

We can quibble whether he'll finish exactly as the 14th best RB in PPR (his current ADP).  But he's more likely to finish in the neighborhood than most RBs I will be considering after the first round.

 

 

Edited by Rolling Thunder

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24 minutes ago, Rolling Thunder said:

In PPR, who outside the first round in a 12 teamer is going to be more reliable?  CMC?  Freeman? McCoy? Howard?  As sure as the sun rises, JM is going to get a bunch of touches and targets every game in an offense that, health permitting, is almost certain to be productive.  He is going to produce chunk plays many weeks.  He is going to get plenty of chances in the RZ.  He has no competition for the lead role, and he will be the first guy up in every down, distance and 2 minute situation.  If you follow the team, you know that to be a fact.

 

We can quibble whether he'll finish exactly as the 14th best RB in PPR (his current ADP).  But he's more likely to finish in the neighborhood than most RBs I will be considering after the first round.

 

 

 

So with everything you just stated I've interpreted that to mean, you'd take him in the 2nd round then?

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4 hours ago, theSPANKER said:

 

So with everything you just stated I've interpreted that to mean, you'd take him in the 2nd round then?

 

IMO, he is absolutely in the conversation with the guys I referenced (CMC, Freeman, McCoy and Howard).  Right now, Cook is the 11th and Mixon is the 16th RB off the board in PPR.  JM is as reliable as Cook, and more reliable than Mixon.  

 

If you burn a 2nd rounder on JM in PPR, you won't end up with a bust, assuming both he and Jimmy G. play all or most of the year.

 

 

 

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4 hours ago, Rolling Thunder said:

 

IMO, he is absolutely in the conversation with the guys I referenced (CMC, Freeman, McCoy and Howard). 

 

Maybe because, crow-like, I am drawn to shiny new things, but I vastly prefer McKinnon over all of those guys.

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1 hour ago, SharkSwimmer said:

Maybe because, crow-like, I am drawn to shiny new things, but I vastly prefer McKinnon over all of those guys.

 

Reliability wise, Freeman is fine.  I love McCoy as a player, but he could be playing in an offense without a QB.  I can't believe CMC would have a higher ADP in PPR than McKinnon.  Howard will probably have a nice season, but he is more valuable in standard than PPR.

 

McKinnon is on a new team, but he isn't "new."  He has grown into a very capable pro.  Shanahan knows very well what McKinnon is capable of doing in the particular offense that Shanahan runs.  Is there really any doubt that McKinnon won't do alot more of what he did well in Minny? It's not rocket science.  Just take the best of McKinnon from the past few years and increase it by 50% or more.  I'll take that in PPR.

 

Breida (and maybe Williams, if he makes the 53) will get some series every game.  Shanahan is grooming a stable of like-skilled RBs so his offense remains the same when he spells his lead guy.  Shanahan will figure out how far he can push McKinnon, and then you'll see the back-up guys used in all the same down and distance scenarios for as many series as are necessary to maintain McKinnon's productiveness.  Here again though, McKinnon has already established himself

to be a very good RB, so the risk that Breida or Williams steal series from him because they flash is nonexistent.

 

Health for McKinnon and Jimmy G. are the only real risks I see for McKinnon going into this season.

 

 

 

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29 minutes ago, Rolling Thunder said:

 

Reliability wise, Freeman is fine.  I love McCoy as a player, but he could be playing in an offense without a QB.  I can't believe CMC would have a higher ADP in PPR than McKinnon.  Howard will probably have a nice season, but he is more valuable in standard than PPR.

 

McKinnon is on a new team, but he isn't "new."  He has grown into a very capable pro.  Shanahan knows very well what McKinnon is capable of doing in the particular offense that Shanahan runs.  Is there really any doubt that McKinnon won't do alot more of what he did well in Minny? It's not rocket science.  Just take the best of McKinnon from the past few years and increase it by 50% or more.  I'll take that in PPR.

 

Breida (and maybe Williams, if he makes the 53) will get some series every game.  Shanahan is grooming a stable of like-skilled RBs so his offense remains the same when he spells his lead guy.  Shanahan will figure out how far he can push McKinnon, and then you'll see the back-up guys used in all the same down and distance scenarios for as many series as are necessary to maintain McKinnon's productiveness.  Here again though, McKinnon has already established himself

to be a very good RB, so the risk that Breida or Williams steal series from him because they flash is nonexistent.

 

Health for McKinnon and Jimmy G. are the only real risks I see for McKinnon going into this season.

 

 

 

:rolleyes::rolleyes:

 

just post a pic of a screaming high school girl and be done with it. :P

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3 hours ago, Impreza178 said:

:rolleyes::rolleyes:

 

just post a pic of a screaming high school girl and be done with it. :P

 

With CMC sporting a higher ADP, there are still souls to convert.  With time, I am confident that even you will see the light my brother.  :P:P

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Posted (edited)

Bobby Turner is the true guru of Shanahan's run game.  If you want reliable  insight into Shanahan's RBs, take note of every word that Turner shares publically, which aren't many.  In this piece, you'll find a rare interview with Turner:

 

https://www.ninersnation.com/2018/6/7/17437116/49ers-running-backs-coach-bobby-turner-jerick-mckinnon-matt-breida-joe-williams

 

I interpret Turner's comments as comfirming what we already know, namely that McKinnon will be used heavily, Breida will spell McKinnon without the offense missing a beat, and Williams is fighting for a roster spot.  

 

Also notable is how quick Turner is to talk about the speed and passing catching abilities of his RBs.  There is simply no place for 2 down grinders in this offense.  If you manage to draft McKinnon AND Breida in PPR, you will be virtually guaranteed year-long top 10 production in PPR from at least one of your RB roster positions.

 

Edited by Rolling Thunder
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RT-

 

...you got any insight regarding the rookie Jeffery Wilson out of North Texas? I'm currently sitting on both McKinnon AND Breida, but I'm keeping my eye on the SF backfield as we get closer to the season (injuries/depth). With Williams face planting last yr, it's not a given that he isn't cut, or he just underperforms, and the 3rd RB spot comes down to McNicohls/Wilson.

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4 minutes ago, FollowTheLeader said:

RT-

 

...you got any insight regarding the rookie Jeffery Wilson out of North Texas? I'm currently sitting on both McKinnon AND Breida, but I'm keeping my eye on the SF backfield as we get closer to the season (injuries/depth). With Williams face planting last yr, it's not a given that he isn't cut, or he just underperforms, and the 3rd RB spot comes down to McNicohls/Wilson.

 

It has been crickets on McNichols and Wilson so far.  Frankly, seeing as how McNichols was with the team all of last year (mostly on the Practice Squad), I am surprised that no one has ever uttered a promising word publically about him.  That is never good for a player's prospects.

 

Personally, I love Wilson in this outside zone scheme.  From what little tape I have seen, he looks born for it.  Unfortunately, I believe that Wilson had one of the highest fumble rates in college last season.  That may have been why he went undrafted.  It is hard to cure ball security issues overnight, so Wilson may have a higher bar to clear to secure a roster spot than most.

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Posted (edited)
20 minutes ago, Rolling Thunder said:

 

It has been crickets on McNichols and Wilson so far.  Frankly, seeing as how McNichols was with the team all of last year (mostly on the Practice Squad), I am surprised that no one has ever uttered a promising word publically about him.  That is never good for a player's prospects.

 

Personally, I love Wilson in this outside zone scheme.  From what little tape I have seen, he looks born for it.

 

My thoughts exactly, hence why I am keeping an eye on this backfield. Thanks for reinforcing B) 

 

*and Wilson can catch!

 

20 minutes ago, Rolling Thunder said:

Unfortunately, I believe that Wilson had one of the highest fumble rates in college last season.  That may have been why he went undrafted.  It is hard to cure ball security issues overnight, so Wilson may have a higher bar to clear to secure a roster spot than most.

 

Agreed, definitely a hurdle he'll have to overcome, and put behind him...

 

Edited by FollowTheLeader

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I found the following PFF piece informative primarily because it includes a chart that shows the percentage of snaps that notable RBs garnered last season in the games they played in, as well as the percentage of obvious pass down snaps they got:

 

https://www.profootballfocus.com/news/fantasy-football-metrics-that-matter-every-down-rbs

 

The first 3 names are no surprise.  Yep, Bell (89.7% total snaps), Elliott (86.6%) and Gurley (80.9%).  But the 4th name is a surprise. It is the ill-suited, square-peg-in-a-round-hole, Carlos Hyde (71.4%).  

 

So what do think the odds are that Shanahan signed (for an above-market price) the only FA RB he targeted with the intent to use him less?  And what are the odds that Shanahan knows a supreme fit for his outside zone run system when he sees it?

 

I wish all my off-season evaluations were this easy.

 

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1 minute ago, Rolling Thunder said:

So what do think the odds are that Shanahan signed (for an above-market price) the only FA RB he targeted with the intent to use him less?  And what are the odds that Shanahan knows a supreme fit for his outside zone run system when he sees it?

 

I wish all my off-season evaluations were this easy.

 

Wow, you're really buying the story line. 

 

Tell me, what great RBs did SF pass up in FA to sign this guy?

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