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Jerick McKinnon 2018 Outlook

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Posted (edited)
45 minutes ago, Experienced Rookie said:

Wow, you're really buying the story line. 

 

Tell me, what great RBs did SF pass up in FA to sign this guy?

 

It's your proclamation (in the 2018 RB Rankings thread) that McKinnon has proven himself to be a JAG and a scrub, such that he is certain to disappoint owners who draft him as a RB1 in any format, including PPR.  Are you wanting to evaluate the FA field now because you have doubts?

 

You'll find lots of thoughtful (and courteous) input posted throughout the earlier pages of this thread.

 

 

 

Edited by Rolling Thunder
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21 minutes ago, Rolling Thunder said:

 

It's your proclamation (in the 2018 RB Rankings thread) that McKinnon has proven himself to be a JAG and a scrub, such that he is certain to disappoint owners who draft him as a RB1 in any format, including PPR.  Are you wanting to evaluate the FA field now because you have doubts?

 

You'll find lots of thoughtful (and courteous) input posted throughout the earlier pages of this thread.

 

 

 

That's not true. I said the only format that warrants his ADP is in full PPR. 

 

You didnt answer my question by the way. You've touted that SF "hand picked McKinnon". So again, what great RBs did they pass up because they love McKinnon?

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Just now, Experienced Rookie said:

That's not true. I said the only format that warrants his ADP is in full PPR. 

 

You didnt answer my question by the way. You've touted that SF "hand picked McKinnon". So again, what great RBs did they pass up because they love McKinnon?

All of them.

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23 minutes ago, SharkSwimmer said:

All of them.

Ugh. You guys suck. 

 

I just wanted him to have to own the fact the the other FA RBs are all either old or suck. 

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14 minutes ago, Experienced Rookie said:

Ugh. You guys suck. 

 

I just wanted him to have to own the fact the the other FA RBs are all either old or suck. 

There's no particular reason to limit the analysis to pure free agent running backs.  The Niners also chose McKinnon over the entire rookie class of running backs, and over the several dozen or so restricted free agents or other guys who they could have acquired in a trade.  But instead they chose McKinnon over all those other guys.

 

So again, I stand by my statement.  The Niners picked McKinnon over all of them.

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10 minutes ago, SharkSwimmer said:

There's no particular reason to limit the analysis to pure free agent running backs.  The Niners also chose McKinnon over the entire rookie class of running backs, and over the several dozen or so restricted free agents or other guys who they could have acquired in a trade.  But instead they chose McKinnon over all those other guys.

 

So again, I stand by my statement.  The Niners picked McKinnon over all of them.

We'll see how many bonus points that earns you. 

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Posted (edited)
58 minutes ago, Experienced Rookie said:

That's not true. I said the only format that warrants his ADP is in full PPR. 

 

You didnt answer my question by the way. You've touted that SF "hand picked McKinnon". So again, what great RBs did they pass up because they love McKinnon?

 

Your question is totally irrelevant.  What matters is what Shanahan and Lynch believe (McKinnon is an ideal fit for Shanahan's particular system), and what they did (overpaid to make sure they signed him, and not draft anyone else).  Who you think is a better (or worse) FA RB in the abstract means nothing.

 

Oh, so now you're back-tracking on your unqualified proclamation that McKinnon is is junk, a scrub, and a multi-year failure?  Here is your first comment from the 2018 RB Rankings thread:

 

"This dude is junk.  He's had nearly 500 career carries, and has a 4.0 average.  He's already 26, and the best thing he's done is have a high SPARQ score."

 

I don't see a distinction being drawn between standard and PPR in that quote.

 

Here is your next comment:

 

"Call me when offseason words translate to fantasy points.  Ill get in my time machine, go back to 2013, and take CJ Spiller #1 overall.  Championship."

 

Sorry, but I don't see a format distinction being drawn in that comment.

 

Here is your 3rd comment:

 

"Michael Thomas is actually good. 

 

Plays for one of the best offenses in football. His QB is a HOFer. 

 

Didnt have 4 seasons of trash output, only to have people suddenly expecting him to be a superstar in year 5 because of coach speak."

 

I don't see the words "standard" or "PPR"

in that quote.

 

Here is your 4th statement:

 

"Ill take players who have actually performed at a high level on the field over guys that coaches sing the praises of in May 100% of the time."

 

Still no sign of a format distinction.

 

It wasn't until you were called on your statements that you tried to say you were fooling when comes to PPR.  

 

And, BTW, it is crystal clear throughout this thread that most posts in which McKinnon prospects are viewed postively are directed to PPR formats.  When you suggest that folks who are high on McKinnon must not be as smart as you, you are necessarily including PPR, because that is precisely the context in which they have expressed optimism.

 

Walk it back if you prefer.  What's done is done.

 

Edited by Rolling Thunder
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Not sure what's going on here, but no one is wrong to say that JMcK has been a loser up to this point in his career. 

 

I still think the guys a bum. 

 

That said, when you get hand picked by a Shanahan / Kubiak offense you not only have my curiosity, you have my attention. 

 

I've been a JMcK hater forever, but now I definitely want as many shares of him that I can acquire. Barring injury I definitely think he can pull off a top 10 PPR RB performance in 2018. 

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2 minutes ago, Dreams And Dwightmares said:

Not sure what's going on here, but no one is wrong to say that JMcK has been a loser up to this point in his career. 

 

I still think the guys a bum. 

 

That said, when you get hand picked by a Shanahan / Kubiak offense you not only have my curiosity, you have my attention. 

 

I've been a JMcK hater forever, but now I definitely want as many shares of him that I can acquire. Barring injury I definitely think he can pull off a top 10 PPR RB performance in 2018. 

 

Of course they're wrong. He was a leaguewinner down the stretch in 2016, and an RB1 last year once he got to play. 

 

Lots of butthurt owners quit on him before then, though, and it's pretty obvious to tell who they are...

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59 minutes ago, Rolling Thunder said:

 

Your question is totally irrelevant.  What matters is what Shanahan and Lynch believe (McKinnon is an ideal fit for Shanahan's particular system), and what they did (overpaid to make sure they signed him, and not draft anyone else).  Who you think is a better (or worse) FA RB in the abstract means nothing.

 

Oh, so now you're back-tracking on your unqualified proclamation that McKinnon is is junk, a scrub, and a multi-year failure?  Here is your first comment from the 2018 RB Rankings thread:

 

"This dude is junk.  He's had nearly 500 career carries, and has a 4.0 average.  He's already 26, and the best thing he's done is have a high SPARQ score."

 

I don't see a distinction being drawn between standard and PPR in that quote.

 

Here is your next comment:

 

"Call me when offseason words translate to fantasy points.  Ill get in my time machine, go back to 2013, and take CJ Spiller #1 overall.  Championship."

 

Sorry, but I don't see a format distinction being drawn in that comment.

 

Here is your 3rd comment:

 

"Michael Thomas is actually good. 

 

Plays for one of the best offenses in football. His QB is a HOFer. 

 

Didnt have 4 seasons of trash output, only to have people suddenly expecting him to be a superstar in year 5 because of coach speak."

 

I don't see the words "standard" or "PPR"

in that quote.

 

Here is your 4th statement:

 

"Ill take players who have actually performed at a high level on the field over guys that coaches sing the praises of in May 100% of the time."

 

Still no sign of a format distinction.

 

It wasn't until you were called on your statements that you tried to say you were fooling when comes to PPR.  

 

And, BTW, it is crystal clear throughout this thread that most posts in which McKinnon prospects are viewed postively are directed to PPR formats.  When you suggest that folks who are high on McKinnon must not be as smart as you, you are necessarily including PPR, because that is precisely the context in which they have expressed optimism.

 

Walk it back if you prefer.  What's done is done.

 

Here's the whole thing:

 

"

Comparing Gurley to McKinnon is like comparing Kate Upton after 3 hours of hair and makeup to Roseanne Barr, but after she's had 3rd degree burns over 80% of her body. 

 

Gurley is a FREAK! He had already had massive success at the pro level. You're right though. People way over reacted to his bad 2016. 

 

This happens every year. The general public makes sharp corrections that go beyond what's reasonable. Kind of like how McKinnon finds himself being drafted where he is. He's nothing like Gurley because he's never done even a fraction of what Gurley has, even with multiple extra years of opportunity. In fact, it's likely that he's not even as good as Hyde was in SF. 

 

Full PPR is the only format I'd consider drafting this scrub, and certainly no earlier than the late 3rd.

 

So I now need to lead with the PPR disclaimer for a player with a 2nd round ADP?? 

 

Are you admitting that if hes taken in the 2nd round in standard scoring that it's a bad pick? 

 

 

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Posted (edited)
25 minutes ago, Dreams And Dwightmares said:

 

 

That said, when you get hand picked by a Shanahan / Kubiak offense you not only have my curiosity, you have my attention. 

 

Was this an intentional Django Unchained reference??

Edited by Experienced Rookie

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the opportunity and contract is too big to ignore. the niners offense looked good with jimmy at the reigns. i was never a big mckinnon lover before the signing but his current situation has me changing my tune. in 12 teamers he's going late 2nd/early 3rd most often and i like him in that tier. to pair his potential with a top back and a lower end wr 1 or gronk in the first three picks could be a recipe for success (and something i have done numerous times already in bbs). i will continue to buy shares current price. he may very win you leagues and if he does bust it's not such a killer of a price tag that it can't be overcome

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Posted (edited)
1 hour ago, joshua18 said:

 

Of course they're wrong. He was a leaguewinner down the stretch in 2016, and an RB1 last year once he got to play. 

 

Lots of butthurt owners quit on him before then, though, and it's pretty obvious to tell who they are...

 

Both guys that had him in my 2 leagues in 2016 missed the playoffs.

 

He had some good games last year, but what does that mean, "once he got to play".  Week 5 on Dalvin Cook was gone and he was splitting work with Lat V who was consistently running better than him.  He got to play and he consistently got touches and was alright with them.  He had a chance to keep Lat V on the sidelines, but couldn't do enough with the ball to warrant that consideration, and it's not like that wasn't in play, cause Dalvin Cook had been doing it.

 

There aren't many guys that consistently get 15+ touches every game that suck, especially when a large amount of those are receptions in PPR.  

 

No one picked him up after Dalvin went down and then dropped him unless they are in 6 man leagues like Axe Elf where Dez Bryant isn't worthy of a roster spot.  And in my leagues the guys that were holding him held him even tighter after Cook went down.

Edited by Dreams And Dwightmares
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Posted (edited)

This is a lot more controversial than I thought. I try to keep an open mind on players, but so far most of the cons for him just call him a jag. That’s not really persuading me. What is persuading, on the other hand, was someone bringing up Carlos Hyde. Carlos Hyde may be/ probably is better than McKinnon. Yet he didn’t do so great last year. Under 1000 yards (although did he get injured or something? Feel like he did) and even when jimmy g took over no 100 yard games. He did have 4 tds in those 5 weeks though. Additionally, McKinnon is not as much a goaline back as Hyde (anyone know of any backup SF rbs are?). The receptions should be there regardless but I am a little more skeptical about drafting this guy. 

 

That said, the money, plus the coach who has great rb resume, and the perceived all around better offense make me still very interested in McKinnon. 

 

Also he has had a good sparq score. Not sure that really means much but people love bringing that up lol

 

edit: game log indicates he wasn’t injured and he did actually have one 100 yard game early on 

Edited by Panthers8912

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What Hyde did last year seems pretty irrelevant to what McKinnon will possibly do this year.  They are very different players.  And, don't forget, the 49ers were very bad last year until Jimmy G. got in there.

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The thing that still makes me nervous about McKinnon is an RBBC. 

 

I know McKinnon is “Shanahan’s Guy” but so was what’s-his-name that Shanahan “pounded the table” for last year (I honestly can’t remember his name. I don’t know why.) The Shanahan system has produced a lot of great fantasy RBs but it has also produced some Hellacious RBBCs. 

 

I hate picks like J Mic because if I draft him it will be RBBC and if I don’t he’ll be a top 10 RB that went in the 3rd.

 

Hopefull preseason provides some clarity.

Edited by FreakFries
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34 minutes ago, FreakFries said:

The thing that still makes me nervous about McKinnon is an RBBC. 

 

I know McKinnon is “Shanahan’s Guy” but so was what’s-his-name that Shanahan “pounded the table” for last year (I honestly can’t remember his name. I don’t know why.) The Shanahan system has produced a lot of great fantasy RBs but it has also produced some Hellacious RBBCs. 

 

I hate picks like J Mic because if I draft him it will be RBBC and if I don’t he’ll be a top 10 RB that went in the 3rd.

 

Hopefull preseason provides some clarity.

Sophomore Joe Williams? 

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If you can get the featured back in a Shanahan / Kubiak offense, I don't really think it matters if they share a lot of time, they still gonna give you value.

 

Devonta Freeman co-existed and thrived next to guys like Tevin Coleman.

Arian Foster co-existed and thrived next to guys like Ben Tate.

 

I think TDs is going to be what separates him from being a RB1 vs RB2 this year.

 

I personally think a lot of coaches are just honestly dumb.  They seem to believe that only a big galoot like Leg Blount can get in the end zone and ignore that some of the best TD makers in history were NOT giant RBs and in fact fairly average sized.

 

The Shanny tree generally gives all sized backs a fair shake at converting TDs, and if JMcK can convert them early then he's probably gonna end up being a top 10 back.  If he doesn't, then he's probably gonna just be a guy that does well that this forum hates because he didn't over achieve.   

Edited by Dreams And Dwightmares
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16 minutes ago, Dreams And Dwightmares said:

If you can get the featured back in a Shanahan / Kubiak offense, I don't really think it matters if they share a lot of time, they still gonna give you value.

 

Devonta Freeman co-existed and thrived next to guys like Tevin Coleman.

Arian Foster co-existed and thrived next to guys like Ben Tate.

 

I think TDs is going to be what separates him from being a RB1 vs RB2 this year.

 

I personally think a lot of coaches are just honestly dumb.  They seem to believe that only a big galoot like Leg Blount can get in the end zone and ignore that some of the best TD makers in history were NOT giant RBs and in fact fairly average sized.

 

The Shanny tree generally gives all sized backs a fair shake at converting TDs, and if JMcK can convert them early then he's probably gonna end up being a top 10 back.  If he doesn't, then he's probably gonna just be a guy that does well that this forum hates because he didn't over achieve.   

 

 

Haha! So true.

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10 hours ago, Dreams And Dwightmares said:

Not sure what's going on here, but no one is wrong to say that JMcK has been a loser up to this point in his career. 

 

I still think the guys a bum. 

 

That said, when you get hand picked by a Shanahan / Kubiak offense you not only have my curiosity, you have my attention. 

 

I've been a JMcK hater forever, but now I definitely want as many shares of him that I can acquire. Barring injury I definitely think he can pull off a top 10 PPR RB performance in 2018. 

 

This is mostly where I'm at as well.  I really dont think he's suddenly one of the best backs in the league, or close.  I just think he's landed in the perfect spot, in what i think is going to be a high scoring offense, with a strong lead role.  I'm still very curious to how his TD production will go in SF.    He absolutely could get Freeman type volume, but Freeman has done well in the red zone.    I really dont see how he falls below RB2 if healthy, and he's got the upside to really break out for that price.    Hoping to make him my second back for around $30 in my auction league. 

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(post deleted bc I took stats from the wrong year and am not posting updated stats because they do not fit my narrative)

Edited by P@ckersFan
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11 hours ago, joshua18 said:

Lots of butthurt owners quit on him before then, though, and it's pretty obvious to tell who they are...

 

The guy who had him in my league that year was definitely butthurt, but it probably had more to do with him finishing in 2nd to last place than it did him quitting on JMcK.

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46 minutes ago, P@ckersFan said:

(post deleted bc I took stats from the wrong year and am not posting updated stats because they do not fit my narrative)

 

In other words, McKinnon hasn't sucked. Thanks for at least being honest about why you deleted your post.

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