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Packdog

Jerick McKinnon 2018 Outlook

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Posted (edited)
1 hour ago, joshua18 said:

In other words, McKinnon hasn't sucked.

 

I'm not going to go that far...in the 2017 fantasy playoffs he scored less than 7 points twice. 

 

But he did perform better in the 2016 fantasy playoffs like you said, posting 12.8, 16.1, and 13.5 points respectively. I just wonder how many playoff caliber teams were starting a guy who averaged less than 10 pts/wk that year. 

Edited by P@ckersFan

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11 minutes ago, P@ckersFan said:

 

I'm not going to go that far...in the 2017 fantasy playoffs he scored less than 7 points twice. 

 

But he did perform better in the 2016 fantasy playoffs like you said, posting 12.8, 16.1, and 13.5 points respectively. I just wonder how many playoff caliber teams were starting a guy who averaged less than 10 pts/wk that year. 

I'm obviously not a McKinnon guy, but this type of thinking doesn't matter. 

 

The only relevant questions are:

 

1. Can McKinnon carry a full load as a lead back? Can he be effective enough between the tackles for SF to feed him the ball?

 

2. Can he be a better goal line player than he's shown?

 

3. Can the SF offense rank inside the top half of the league?

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46 minutes ago, Experienced Rookie said:

I'm obviously not a McKinnon guy, but this type of thinking doesn't matter. 

 

The only relevant questions are:

 

1. Can McKinnon carry a full load as a lead back? Can he be effective enough between the tackles for SF to feed him the ball?

 

2. Can he be a better goal line player than he's shown?

 

3. Can the SF offense rank inside the top half of the league?

 

Well obviously those are the questions surrounding him, I don't think anyone on either side would argue that and everyone's points on the matter are on the record. We allowed to have other fantasy football related conversations on this forum. 

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4 minutes ago, P@ckersFan said:

 

Well obviously those are the questions surrounding him, I don't think anyone on either side would argue that and everyone's points on the matter are on the record. We allowed to have other fantasy football related conversations on this forum. 

Absolutely.

 

I'm merely pointing out that whatever he did in the fantasy playoffs 2 years ago, and the fact that he wasn't likely started by any playoff teams really isn't relevant to his value now.

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4 hours ago, Experienced Rookie said:

I'm obviously not a McKinnon guy, but this type of thinking doesn't matter. 

 

The only relevant questions are:

 

1. Can McKinnon carry a full load as a lead back? Can he be effective enough between the tackles for SF to feed him the ball?

 

2. Can he be a better goal line player than he's shown?

 

3. Can the SF offense rank inside the top half of the league?

 

I feel good about 1 and 3, but there's no way to say yes, for sure, to #2.  Time will tell on that.  

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49ers coach Kyle Shanahan has been impressed with RB Joe Williams' offseason after he spent his rookie year on injured reserve with an ankle injury.

"I think he has a different mindset — understands a little bit more the standard of the NFL and difference," Shanahan said Tuesday. "I think his body looks a lot better than it did last year. He put on a lot of muscle mass and he took advantage of the year of not playing." Reporter Matt Maiocco — who said Williams "did not create an overall favorable impression" last summer — posited in April that Williams could have a tough time making the 53-man roster. He needs to carve out a role behind Jerick McKinnon and Matt Breida.
 
 
Jun 12 - 4:13 PM
 
 
One down on the RBBC threat? 
 
Brieda is going to be a 7th or 8th round pick come August. Bummer.
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I'm currently having a tough  time valuing the SF backfield.

 I'm not confident it's as cut and dry as the ADP's suggest.  This offense is becoming expensive to acquire jimmyg-garcon-mckinnon are not cheap

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It is well-known that Joe Williams did not endear himself to Shanahan and Lynch after Shanahan pounded the table to draft him.  Fair to say, Williams ended his rookie season on, or near, the roster bubble.

 

In a presser held on the first day of minicamp yesterday, Shanahan for the first time since draft day spoke something positive about Williams:

 

https://www.nbcsports.com/bayarea/49ers/shanahan-encouraged-what-hes-seen-49ers-rb-joe-williams

 

It should be noted that during the same presser, Shanahan said that McKinnon has been everything they hoped he would be when they signed him, so there's that too.  But as long as Shanahan is openly allowing for the possibility that Williams can become the player he (Shanahan) thought on draft day that Williams could become, it cannot be said with certainty that Williams is a zero threat to McKinnon's stranglehold on snaps.  The situation still needs to play out some more in the PS to draw any final conclusions.

  

 

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On 6/13/2018 at 9:12 AM, Rolling Thunder said:

It is well-known that Joe Williams did not endear himself to Shanahan and Lynch after Shanahan pounded the table to draft him.  Fair to say, Williams ended his rookie season on, or near, the roster bubble.

 

In a presser held on the first day of minicamp yesterday, Shanahan for the first time since draft day spoke something positive about Williams:

 

https://www.nbcsports.com/bayarea/49ers/shanahan-encouraged-what-hes-seen-49ers-rb-joe-williams

 

It should be noted that during the same presser, Shanahan said that McKinnon has been everything they hoped he would be when they signed him, so there's that too.  But as long as Shanahan is openly allowing for the possibility that Williams can become the player he (Shanahan) thought on draft day that Williams could become, it cannot be said with certainty that Williams is a zero threat to McKinnon's stranglehold on snaps.  The situation still needs to play out some more in the PS to draw any final conclusions.

  

 

 

"Joe has come a long way" is not the endorsement I need to keep me from dropping Joe in dynasty... Find the "We want Joe on the field every down" endorsement.

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I am saying with certainty that Joe isn't a threat to McKinnon, did none of these writers watch his college career at all? If Joe starts the season on a roster that will be a win.

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On 6/13/2018 at 7:09 PM, NYR Fan 116894 said:

 

 

With OTAs a wrap, the concensus of beat writers is that McKinnon will be used in lots of different ways in what promises to be a productive offense.  Barring injury, I don't see how McKinnon is not consistently productive in PPR (standard may be a different story).

 

So while everyone knows I have been positive about McKinnon's prospects from the start, with all OTA returns in, I am back to sound a word of caution when it comes to McKinnon's valuation relative to ADP range options like McCoy, Howard or even Collins who have bell cow potential.

 

Matt Breida endeared himself to the Shanahan/Lynch braintrust last season.  That admiration has only grown this off-season.  Just as importantly, Breida demonstrates explosiveness, hands and overall scheme fit nearly on par with McKinnon.  So while there is no question that McKinnon will be used alot (and likely successfully IMO), I am now beginning to embrace the possibility that Breida's role may be larger than I originally envisioned.   Because they are clones in terms of skill sets, the likely outcome will be that each will get their own series during games, including RZ and 2 minute/catch up ones. How many more McKinnon gets relative to  Breida will determine their respective productions.

 

If I believed with confidence that Breida's share of the work in 2018 was going to be the same (or better yet, less) than it was in 2017 (when Hyde played a high percentage of the total RB snaps), I would not worry an ounce about McKinnon's draft price.  Breida's growth (and talent) though has me at least thinking harder about it now.

 

 

 

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On ‎6‎/‎14‎/‎2018 at 2:27 PM, hoppychokes said:

I am saying with certainty that Joe isn't a threat to McKinnon, did none of these writers watch his college career at all? If Joe starts the season on a roster that will be a win.

 

Who knows?  But apparently Shanahan did and wanted Joe badly.  

  His opinion > beat writers > yours  :D

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51 minutes ago, Impreza178 said:

 

Who knows?  But apparently Shanahan did and wanted Joe badly.  

  His opinion > beat writers > yours  :D

Do you not remember Shanahans opinion after he got him? Just because he wanted him doesnt mean he doesnt now regret it, the best praise he is willing to pile on is that Joe has a shot of making the roster, probably as special teams.

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40 minutes ago, hoppychokes said:

Do you not remember Shanahans opinion after he got him? Just because he wanted him doesnt mean he doesnt now regret it, the best praise he is willing to pile on is that Joe has a shot of making the roster, probably as special teams.

A coach should be piling on praise in June?

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Posted (edited)
1 hour ago, Impreza178 said:

A coach should be piling on praise in June?

If a beat writer is willing to say he has a chance at getting offensive snaps, the coach should be saying more than Joe has a shot at the roster through special teams.

 

Edit: Enough offensive snaps to dent McKinnons load that is

Edited by hoppychokes

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28 minutes ago, hoppychokes said:

If a beat writer is willing to say he has a chance at getting offensive snaps, the coach should be saying more than Joe has a shot at the roster through special teams.

 

Edit: Enough offensive snaps to dent McKinnons load that is

 

Thats not how coachspeak works.    

Does the player

A: need encouragement

or B: a kick in the azz?   

 

We’re talking about a backup here.  You get nothing until u earn it. 

 

 And Breida is about the size of your average talking M&M.   If Joe isn’t a factor it makes me more confident in Jerick-  Breida can’t ever be a primary back.  

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As big a fan of McKinnon as I am, someone will step up to make this a timeshare. He should still finish as a top-10 RB this season.

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2 hours ago, joshua18 said:

As big a fan of McKinnon as I am, someone will step up to make this a timeshare. He should still finish as a top-10 RB this season.

100% with you there, I dont believe Mckinnon could take all the touches and remain healthy. Someone will step up.

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2 hours ago, joshua18 said:

As big a fan of McKinnon as I am, someone will step up to make this a timeshare. He should still finish as a top-10 RB this season.

How many players have to get hurt while he stays healthy for this to happen?

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11 minutes ago, Experienced Rookie said:

How many players have to get hurt while he stays healthy for this to happen?

 

Even if McKinnon alternates series regularly with Breida (an outcome I see coming to a certain degree), McKinnon could still churn out some pretty impressive PPR numbers if the "chunk" plays (both run and pass) that Shanahan strives for emerge.  That's the thing to understand about this offense.  With the right cut and streak guy, who can also excel in the pass game, Shanahan is rather confident that he can gash most defenses for big plays a few times each game.  The 44 pts he hung on a stellar JAX defense in a game JAX was playing to win in week 16 was just another example of Shanahan's acumen offensively.  

 

Top 10 for McKinnon in PPR is still a possibility even if Breida gets 33%-40% of the series.  If not top 10, then certainly close to it.

 

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Not sure why we are assuming McKinnon will get hurt or be unable to handle a sizable work load.  He's almost exactly the same size as Devonta Freeman.

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3 hours ago, Experienced Rookie said:

How many players have to get hurt while he stays healthy for this to happen?

 

None

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