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Jerick McKinnon 2018 Outlook

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Shanny was banging the table for Joe Williams last year too as mentioned above, remember him? I'm sure JM will have some games primarily reliant on pass receptions but just don't see him as a true 3 downer, especially at the GL. If this guy is that good why did the team that knew him best go pay Lat Murray, who for my money out played him, a good chunk of change and drafted Cook so high? So many other players I prefer at his draft point.

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1 hour ago, joshua18 said:

 

You spelled "Joe Mixon" wrong.

 

fixed, for accuracy. 

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56 minutes ago, The Invictus said:

If this guy is that good why did the team that knew him best go pay Lat Murray, who for my money out played him, a good chunk of change and drafted Cook so high?

Plus he is only two seasons removed from not being able to steal snaps from the plodfather.

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If the Niners sign Asiata late in camp, I'm out on McKinnon.

 

Otherwise?  Bring it on. 

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The guy had 4 seasons to prove himself and hasn’t done too much and this is with terrible competition for a significant part of time. No thanks. He’s had every chance to succeed and hasn’t so why will it change now?

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2 minutes ago, Gohawks said:

The guy had 4 seasons to prove himself and hasn’t done too much and this is with terrible competition for a significant part of time. No thanks. He’s had every chance to succeed and hasn’t so why will it change now?

 

He has succeeded, most just haven't paid attention. RB1 from wk 12 onward in 2016. RB1 once the starter from wk 5 last year. 

 

The doubters are still stuck stuck in early 2016 mode. Meanwhile, sharp players were able to get him for free this time a year ago. He's now in a situation with one of the highest floors in the league.

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10 minutes ago, Gohawks said:

The guy had 4 seasons to prove himself and hasn’t done too much and this is with terrible competition for a significant part of time. No thanks. He’s had every chance to succeed and hasn’t so why will it change now?

Shanny 

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1 hour ago, joshua18 said:

 

He has succeeded, most just haven't paid attention. RB1 from wk 12 onward in 2016. RB1 once the starter from wk 5 last year. 

 

The doubters are still stuck stuck in early 2016 mode. Meanwhile, sharp players were able to get him for free this time a year ago. He's now in a situation with one of the highest floors in the league.

He was a RB1 from wk5 onward? There were weeks where he couldn't be started and Latavius Murray was carrying the load. Perhaps he was a weekly RB1 in full-PPR? Even then I find it hard to believe.

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The good news is he was 20th in half ppr last season with ~10-15 carries a game. He is a near Saquon level athlete (at a lower weight). The bad news is his ypc has been bad the last two years. He is super talented as a receiver but seems like a big play guy at rb. The other good news is the 49ers line is so much better than last year with the additions of Richberg, McGlinchey, Cooper, and the competition between laken and garnett. Brown was considered a pretty average run blocker and McGlinchey should be an upgrade there and center has always been an important piece in Shanny's oline. 

 

I don't think we should give up on Breida and Joe Williams but would anyone be surprised if McKinnon ended the year with 175/60 or some sort of line like that?  They had 345 between Hyde and Breida last year. Is 200 that hard to see?  If those efficiency numbers go up as a runner he could be a very good standard option and a high end rb2 in ppr. 

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13 hours ago, devaster said:

He was a RB1 from wk5 onward? There were weeks where he couldn't be started and Latavius Murray was carrying the load. Perhaps he was a weekly RB1 in full-PPR? Even then I find it hard to believe.

 

Then look at the numbers...it's something few McKinnon bashers have actually done since Norv Turner quit in 2016.

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13 hours ago, devaster said:

He was a RB1 from wk5 onward? There were weeks where he couldn't be started and Latavius Murray was carrying the load. Perhaps he was a weekly RB1 in full-PPR? Even then I find it hard to believe.

 

iirc, Jet had a couple/few monster ppr games right off the bat (after Cook went down) .... folks blew their FAAB coin/waiver priority on Slats, and he fizzled out the gate, primarily due to him still feeling the effects of the ankle injury, it appeared.  meanwhile, the more astute chaps bagged Jet for a song, and reaped more immediate rewards.  

 

shifted more towards Slats once the ankle was negotiable, and Jet had himself some clunkers ... but the ppg avg from post Cook injury on certainly nailed the kid an RB1 designation. 

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2 hours ago, joshua18 said:

 

Then look at the numbers...it's something few McKinnon bashers have actually done since Norv Turner quit in 2016.

Feel free to post the numbers since it is your defense.

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28 minutes ago, devaster said:

Feel free to post the numbers since it is your defense.

 

I have in the past. Not gonna repeat myself. Feel free to do your own work instead of having it spoonfed to you. 

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I think the issue is that we're dealing with very small sample sizes, and with small samples you can kind of break down the numbers to fit different narratives.  Just looking at numbers from last year in my PPR league, Jerick certainly put up ridiculous numbers in bursts, and what averaged out to RB1 numbers after the Cook injury, but overall he showed a high degree of volatility.  Weeks 5-8 he was leaned on in what you would expect to be a similar way to how Shanny will probably use him this year - about 15 carries and 5-6 receptions per game - and he produced huge PPR numbers (21.6 PPG average).  After that his early down work diminished with the use of Lat, and there was a lot more bust than boom (9.6 PPG average thanks to a couple really good weeks surrounded by mediocre ones).  

 

What that all boils down is you either believe that Weeks 5-8 and the "Freeman style" usage he saw in that time period are indicative of how he will play this season, or you believe that the volatility of his usage and results are more indicative of who he is.  Personally I came into this discussion firmly in the "McKinnon is overrated" camp, but I'm starting to see a lot to like about him:

- performed very well when given the majority of touches

- Shanny offense is tailor made for his skill set

- low YPC could be more a result of low usage overall and failure to get in a groove (YPC was a much more respectable 4.42 when he was getting 15 carries per game)

- he's being paid like a bellcow, so you certainly expect the usage to be there, which should solidify his floor

 

I don't love the risk associated with all the unknowns and lackluster past results, but at the same time no RB after the 1st round is anything close to a sure thing, and not many have the ceiling that Jerick will playing in this system and with the touches he will get.  And TBH he looks less risky of a pick than some guys going ahead of him, like Cook and McCaffrey, and a lot less risky than those directly after him (Mixon and Shady).  In a vacuum it doesn't sound great to spend a pick at the 2/3 turn on McKinnon, but in the reality of the draft board, who else are you getting at RB at that spot that offers the same combination of solid floor and sky high ceiling?

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24 minutes ago, handyandy86 said:

In a vacuum it doesn't sound great to spend a pick at the 2/3 turn on McKinnon, but in the reality of the draft board, who else are you getting at RB at that spot that offers the same combination of solid floor and sky high ceiling?

 

Mixon.

 

I'm torn between these two.

 

I expect McKinnon will get about 15 carries a game (240 total).  4.2 YPC and he's over 1,000 yards rushing.  I think 1,000 is a good O/U.  I'd lean slightly under if I had to guess.  The OL is good out there, though.

      For reference, Hyde had exactly 240 last year at 4.1.

I expect he'll add about 70 receptions.  Maybe more.  He is an excellent receiver and Shanahan knows it.  500+ yards easy.

      For reference, Hyde had 59 last year for 350.

 

Mixon should get more carries.  I figure 280, or 17.5 per game.  I can't figure him for more than 4.0 at this point given last year, and that the line isn't THAT much better.  Still should be safely up to 1100 yards on that volume.

But Gio will steal about 40 recs.  Still leaves about 50 for Mixon.  400 yards seem fair?  Does to me.

 

Both guys are looking at about 1500 total yards one way or the other based on that.  I could be way wrong.  I think it's close enough for me to put them in the same tier.

 

And they both have a "sky high ceiling" given their situation (McKinnon) or talent (Mixon).  Neither are in objectively bad situations.  Neither are slouches.

 

I give the edge to McKinnon because I think he'll have a lot more TD opportunity, by nature of being in a better offense, and the receiving volume.  Hyde was 2nd in the league in 2017 in OTD, at 12.7.  He underperformed -- only 8 TDs last year -- but there is ample opportunity for McKinnon this year to hit pay dirt.  I generally give an edge to situation over talent, unless you're JAG and you have much better talent behind you.  Neither is the case here.

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1 hour ago, Lord_Varys said:

 

Mixon.

 

I'm torn between these two.

 

I expect McKinnon will get about 15 carries a game (240 total).  4.2 YPC and he's over 1,000 yards rushing.  I think 1,000 is a good O/U.  I'd lean slightly under if I had to guess.  The OL is good out there, though.

      For reference, Hyde had exactly 240 last year at 4.1.

I expect he'll add about 70 receptions.  Maybe more.  He is an excellent receiver and Shanahan knows it.  500+ yards easy.

      For reference, Hyde had 59 last year for 350.

 

Mixon should get more carries.  I figure 280, or 17.5 per game.  I can't figure him for more than 4.0 at this point given last year, and that the line isn't THAT much better.  Still should be safely up to 1100 yards on that volume.

But Gio will steal about 40 recs.  Still leaves about 50 for Mixon.  400 yards seem fair?  Does to me.

 

Both guys are looking at about 1500 total yards one way or the other based on that.  I could be way wrong.  I think it's close enough for me to put them in the same tier.

 

And they both have a "sky high ceiling" given their situation (McKinnon) or talent (Mixon).  Neither are in objectively bad situations.  Neither are slouches.

 

I give the edge to McKinnon because I think he'll have a lot more TD opportunity, by nature of being in a better offense, and the receiving volume.  Hyde was 2nd in the league in 2017 in OTD, at 12.7.  He underperformed -- only 8 TDs last year -- but there is ample opportunity for McKinnon this year to hit pay dirt.  I generally give an edge to situation over talent, unless you're JAG and you have much better talent behind you.  Neither is the case here.

 

I agree Mixon is in the conversation in that range, but to me McKinnon seems to have a much higher floor than Mixon, without really sacrificing the ceiling.   Especially in PPR, the Shanahan system is tailor made to feed lots of targets and touches to McKinnon.  Even if he puts up a lackluster YPC / YPR, I think he is saved from a fantasy standpoint by volume.  

 

Mixon definitely has the ceiling this year, but I still somewhat worry that he isn't going to have the same volume.  Marvin Lewis always seems to find a way to spread the ball around enough and have an anemic enough offense that nobody really hits those high end numbers lately.  Maybe it's just recency bias, but I have a lot more question marks with Cincy's offense and schemes and usage than I do with SF's.  

 

As you say, I would much rather buy into the situation than the talent.  And McKinnon's situation is that he is a perfect fit for a proven coach that will use him heavily, and with really nobody behind him with a similar skillset to push him.  Not to mention the contract and money tied up in him, which isn't something they can just give up on after 4-5 games and eat $30 million worth of crow.  

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8 minutes ago, handyandy86 said:

 

I agree Mixon is in the conversation in that range, but to me McKinnon seems to have a much higher floor than Mixon, without really sacrificing the ceiling.   Especially in PPR, the Shanahan system is tailor made to feed lots of targets and touches to McKinnon.  Even if he puts up a lackluster YPC / YPR, I think he is saved from a fantasy standpoint by volume.  

 

Mixon definitely has the ceiling this year, but I still somewhat worry that he isn't going to have the same volume.  Marvin Lewis always seems to find a way to spread the ball around enough and have an anemic enough offense that nobody really hits those high end numbers lately.  Maybe it's just recency bias, but I have a lot more question marks with Cincy's offense and schemes and usage than I do with SF's.  

 

As you say, I would much rather buy into the situation than the talent.  And McKinnon's situation is that he is a perfect fit for a proven coach that will use him heavily, and with really nobody behind him with a similar skillset to push him.  Not to mention the contract and money tied up in him, which isn't something they can just give up on after 4-5 games and eat $30 million worth of crow.  

Only one year is actually tied up with him.  They can cut him next year before training camp and essentially only be on the hook for around $11M.

 

 

 

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2 minutes ago, Magoo said:

Only one year is actually tied up with him.  They can cut him next year before training camp and essentially only be on the hook for around $11M.

 

 

 

That is how most deals are structured. Two year deals essentially because of the guaranteed money being up-front. It still wouldn't make much sense for the 49ers to give up on him in his 1st year after signing him to a big FA contract. If McKinnon lays an egg this season the team would probably look to the draft to start phasing him out in year two of his contract.

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1 minute ago, devaster said:

That is how most deals are structured. Two year deals essentially because of the guaranteed money being up-front. It still wouldn't make much sense for the 49ers to give up on him in his 1st year after signing him to a big FA contract. If McKinnon lays an egg this season the team would probably look to the draft to start phasing him out in year two of his contract.

Yea that's what I meant.  It's really a one year "prove it" deal.  

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5 hours ago, joshua18 said:

 

I have in the past. Not gonna repeat myself. Feel free to do your own work instead of having it spoonfed to you. 

No one cares about the past. Telling someone to look it up themselves when you are trying to prove a point is absolutely ridiculous. Anyone can make claims. 

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21 hours ago, Ravioli27 said:

The good news is he was 20th in half ppr last season with ~10-15 carries a game. He is a near Saquon level athlete (at a lower weight). The bad news is his ypc has been bad the last two years. He is super talented as a receiver but seems like a big play guy at rb. The other good news is the 49ers line is so much better than last year with the additions of Richberg, McGlinchey, Cooper, and the competition between laken and garnett. Brown was considered a pretty average run blocker and McGlinchey should be an upgrade there and center has always been an important piece in Shanny's oline. 

 

I don't think we should give up on Breida and Joe Williams but would anyone be surprised if McKinnon ended the year with 175/60 or some sort of line like that?  They had 345 between Hyde and Breida last year. Is 200 that hard to see?  If those efficiency numbers go up as a runner he could be a very good standard option and a high end rb2 in ppr. 

This is true. He is a solid pick. Just nowhere near the damn second round. I can’t imagine using my second draft choice on him.

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22 minutes ago, Gohawks said:

No one cares about the past. Telling someone to look it up themselves when you are trying to prove a point is absolutely ridiculous. Anyone can make claims. 

 

Would have taken you less time to look up the info I previously posted than it did to type your mini-rant.

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2 minutes ago, joshua18 said:

 

Would have taken you less time to look up the info I previously posted than it did to type your mini-rant.

No. It wouldn't have. Someone else already provided the details that confirmed what I remember from last season anyway. He may have ended up a RB1 in total point at the end of the season, but that doesn't account for injuries and volatility. I had him in standard and Latavius in 0.5 PPR last season.

 

Situation has changed, but the volatility has always been there with him from my experience. Just have to hope the volatility is lessened in the Shanny scheme, which some others have made some compelling arguments for.

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So I got number 1 in a 12 man PPR.  Thinking of going Gurley and then wrapping around with McKinnon.  Does anyone else have a bad feeling about taking him at the bottom of the 2nd/top of 3round round? I need to be sold.  Someone please sell me the dream. 

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5 minutes ago, dlionsfan901 said:

So I got number 1 in a 12 man PPR.  Thinking of going Gurley and then wrapping around with McKinnon.  Does anyone else have a bad feeling about taking him at the bottom of the 2nd/top of 3round round? I need to be sold.  Someone please sell me the dream. 

 

He has as high a floor as any RB not drafted with a top-6 pick. He may not be available at the 2.12/3.01 turn. 

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