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Jerick McKinnon 2018 Outlook

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43 minutes ago, Rolling Thunder said:

I was alerted to this interesting factoid, so I figured I should share it.  Take a gander who the "NFL Comparison" was for Joe Williams in his draft profile:

 

http://www.nfl.com/draft/2017/profiles/joe-williams?id=2557936

 

Yep, none other than Jerick McKinnon.  

 

Given KS' famous table pounding on draft day last year, this cooincidence takes on a little more meaning.

 

Right now the contract is the only thing I trust. But it's a pretty good sign for those who believe in McKinnon.

 

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48 minutes ago, Rolling Thunder said:

I was alerted to this interesting factoid, so I figured I should share it.  Take a gander who the "NFL Comparison" was for Joe Williams in his draft profile:

 

http://www.nfl.com/draft/2017/profiles/joe-williams?id=2557936

 

Yep, none other than Jerick McKinnon.  

 

Given KS' famous table pounding on draft day last year, this cooincidence takes on a little more meaning.

 

I think that was a bad comp as McKinnon is a completely different level of athlete.

 

However,  in the context of what you are saying about KS' Joe Williams love then it is relevant.  

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Joe Williams posted this on the day Jerick mckinon  was signed  :lol:

Edited by dashoe
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I was thinking this through and wondering why he scored that kind of deal in this RB market.   So I checked out his contract numbers on Spotrac and it turns out that this is another more than meets the eye contract.    Its heavily front loaded like Garoppolo's deal-.   There's a 5.5 mil roster bonus now, while they have tons of cap.  Most teams would signing bonus that money and spread it out.   


 McKinnon gets 12 mil guaranteed at signing, and that's it- he collects it all this year.    If they decide they hate him, he's gone next year with 1.5 in dead cap space- not too bad.    If they want to keep him, they lock him in for a 4.5 mil cap hit- very palatable.    After that it gets sketchy- its likely this is a 2 year deal at best, but they can always restructure.     As long as ownership doesn't have a problem shelling out the cash, this is good work, ultimately.      

 

Its surely debateable that he's even worth that 12 million, but while i hesitate to say unique, i think he's got a skillset that wasn't available with many of the FA's out there.   They're buying him for basically option years going forward, and paying a premium now to get that done.     I can't quite get to the point of saying this is a good move for certain, but i'm no longer aghast.

Edited by BrianM
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On 3/16/2018 at 2:01 PM, BrianM said:

I was thinking this through and wondering why he scored that kind of deal in this RB market.   So I checked out his contract numbers on Spotrac and it turns out that this is another more than meets the eye contract.    Its heavily front loaded like Garoppolo's deal-.   There's a 5.5 mil roster bonus now, while they have tons of cap.  Most teams would signing bonus that money and spread it out.   


 McKinnon gets 12 mil guaranteed at signing, and that's it- he collects it all this year.    If they decide they hate him, he's gone next year with 1.5 in dead cap space- not too bad.    If they want to keep him, they lock him in for a 4.5 mil cap hit- very palatable.    After that it gets sketchy- its likely this is a 2 year deal at best, but they can always restructure.     As long as ownership doesn't have a problem shelling out the cash, this is good work, ultimately.      

 

Its surely debateable that he's even worth that 12 million, but while i hesitate to say unique, i think he's got a skillset that wasn't available with many of the FA's out there.   They're buying him for basically option years going forward, and paying a premium now to get that done.     I can't quite get to the point of saying this is a good move for certain, but i'm no longer aghast.

 

Very nice analysis, especially the skill set observation.

 

Maybe it will turn out to be overkill, but Lynch and his people are targeting the people with the precise skill sets that KS says he wants, and they are paying whatever it takes to get them.  If you happen to be one of those players, you can hold out for an above-market contract knowing that this FO will cave.  Lynch, who is still a former player at heart, would rather "do right" by the guys and have them love him, so overpaying doesn't bother him, at least not yet.

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19 minutes ago, Rolling Thunder said:

 

Very nice analysis, especially the skill set observation.

 

Maybe it will turn out to be overkill, but Lynch and his people are targeting the people with the precise skill sets that KS says he wants, and they are paying whatever it takes to get them.  If you happen to be one of those players, you can hold out for an above-market contract knowing that this FO will cave.  Lynch, who is still a former player at heart, would rather "do right" by the guys and have them love him, so overpaying doesn't bother him, at least not yet.

 

 

Sounds a bit like a hallmark card salesman and not an NFL GM doesnt it? I'm a bit skeptical about that sentiment that the GM wants to be loved and will pay professional athletes for it. Much cheaper  and more gratifying to coach pop warner and take the kids out for ice cream afterwards.

Edited by dashoe

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12 hours ago, dashoe said:

 

 

Sounds a bit like a hallmark card salesman and not an NFL GM doesnt it? I'm a bit skeptical about that sentiment that the GM wants to be loved and will pay professional athletes for it. Much cheaper  and more gratifying to coach pop warner and take the kids out for ice cream afterwards.

 

To get a glimpse of where Lynch's sentiments might really be, all you needed to see was his behavior down on the sidelines with the players when the team got its first win last season.  You would have never guessed he was a GM.  Heartwarming for sure, but enough to raise a red flag to anyone who appreciates the player/management dynamic.  I could be completely wrong (I really don't know the man), but I'm guessing he's already on the road to

learning some hard lessons (e.g., when the surplus of cap he inherited is gone and the early precedents he's set become problematic in the future).

Edited by Rolling Thunder

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15 minutes ago, Rolling Thunder said:

 

To get a glimpse of where Lynch's sentiments might really be, all you needed to see was his behavior down on the sidelines with the players when the team got its first win last season.  You would have never guessed he was a GM.  Heartwarming for sure, but enough to raise a red flag to anyone who appreciates the player/management dynamic.  I could be completely wrong (I really don't know the man), but I'm guessing he's already on the road to

learning some hard lessons (e.g., when the surplus of cap he inherited is gone and the early precedents he's set become problematic in the future).

 

 

I get it you are Niners fan and bleed it. I can appreciate that because when I started playing fantasy I moved towards being  a fan of individual players and less of teams, so color me jaded and cynical as to the non business interpretations of organizations.

Lynch is a new GM and he is going to make some good moves such as signing Jimmy G and some questionable moves such as the jerick contract. 

I hope your prism is the correct one because then it would mean there is some humanity in the game that is counter to the widget and metrics and contract model we see daily. :)

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2 hours ago, dashoe said:

 

 

I get it you are Niners fan and bleed it. I can appreciate that because when I started playing fantasy I moved towards being  a fan of individual players and less of teams, so color me jaded and cynical as to the non business interpretations of organizations.

Lynch is a new GM and he is going to make some good moves such as signing Jimmy G and some questionable moves such as the jerick contract. 

I hope your prism is the correct one because then it would mean there is some humanity in the game that is counter to the widget and metrics and contract model we see daily. :)

 

So far, the "humanity" part from Lynch (and KS, I believe) looks to be real.  Granting Bowman his release last season, instead of looking for a trade that would net some minimal draft capital in return, is some proof of that.  

 

Then, just last week, the aquisition of Richburg triggered another "do right" moment from Lynch.  A few weeks before, they had signed Dan Kilgore to a team friendly extension.  They told him that they wanted him to be their starting center again.  Kilgore is a middle of the pack center according to PFF.  He is a legitimate starter.

 

Well, lo and behold, they won the bidding war for Richburg, whose best position is center.  When they told Kilgore that Richburg would likely start at center, and that they wanted Kilgore to prepare to play guard, he did not react too kindly.  Rather than shop him around (he probably would have netted a 5th or 6th rounder in return), they approached the Fins when Mike Pouncey wanted out.  The Fins said that they would give Kilgore a real chance to start at center, and Kilgore was pleased to go to Miami.  The Niners then shipped him there for virtually nothing (don't believe the media spin that the alleged cost savings was a big quid pro quo for the deal).  

 

End of story, Kilgore was very appreciative and Lynch and KS stopped feeling "bad" (the term they used at the presser) for doing the sudden about face to Kilgore, who was a popular guy in the locker room.

 

Yes, I do believe that Lynch is trying to build a reputation as a "players" GM, for better or for worse.

Edited by Rolling Thunder
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5 hours ago, dashoe said:

 

I hope your prism is the correct one because then it would mean there is some humanity in the game that is counter to the widget and metrics and contract model we see daily. :)

 

NE has been pretty successful with that model.

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1 hour ago, 96mnc said:

 

NE has been pretty successful with that model.

 

Only because they have the GOAT QB (playing for $10 million/year less than his market value) and HC. 

 

Kubiak was the only NFL HC who was always honest with the media about player injuries, and he won a ring. Being dishonest and cold hearted is not a prerequisite for winning in the NFL. 

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Interesting report that attempts to explain why SF ended up overpaying significantly for McKinnon:

 

http://www.nydailynews.com/sports/football/jets/offensive-weapon-jets-targeted-missed-article-1.3883545?utm_content=buffer33e67&utm_medium=social&utm_source=twitter.com&utm_campaign=mmehta+twitter

 

Excessive contract amount aside, I believe that McKinnon is a lock to be a big time PPR performer in KS' system, especially with JG pulling the trigger.  At this stage of his career, McKinnon is a true pro.  There is little doubt that he will be able to execute what he's asked to execute.  I am also relatively certain that KS and JG know how mine McKinnon's unique talents to their fullest. 

 

In PPR, I bet McKinnon ends up being the best thing this side of Alvin Kamara.

Edited by Rolling Thunder

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1 hour ago, Rolling Thunder said:

Interesting report that attempts to explain why SF ended up overpaying significantly for McKinnon:

 

http://www.nydailynews.com/sports/football/jets/offensive-weapon-jets-targeted-missed-article-1.3883545?utm_content=buffer33e67&utm_medium=social&utm_source=twitter.com&utm_campaign=mmehta+twitter

 

Excessive contract amount aside, I believe that McKinnon is a lock to be a big time PPR performer in KS' system, especially with JG pulling the trigger.  At this stage of his career, McKinnon is a true pro.  There is little doubt that he will be able to execute what he's asked to execute.  I am also relatively certain that KS and JG know how mine McKinnon's unique talents to their fullest. 

 

In PPR, I bet McKinnon ends up being the best thing this side of Alvin Kamara.

 

Kamara scored 13 tds in essentially 11 games.  That's quite the pace for McKinnon to match. 

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1 hour ago, Rolling Thunder said:

 

 

In PPR, I bet McKinnon ends up being the best thing this side of Alvin Kamara.

 

 

A highly efficient record setting player?  I would settle for pre-injury chris Thompson or similar production to Duke

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18 hours ago, Rolling Thunder said:

Interesting report that attempts to explain why SF ended up overpaying significantly for McKinnon:

 

http://www.nydailynews.com/sports/football/jets/offensive-weapon-jets-targeted-missed-article-1.3883545?utm_content=buffer33e67&utm_medium=social&utm_source=twitter.com&utm_campaign=mmehta+twitter

 

Excessive contract amount aside, I believe that McKinnon is a lock to be a big time PPR performer in KS' system, especially with JG pulling the trigger.  At this stage of his career, McKinnon is a true pro.  There is little doubt that he will be able to execute what he's asked to execute.  I am also relatively certain that KS and JG know how mine McKinnon's unique talents to their fullest. 

 

In PPR, I bet McKinnon ends up being the best thing this side of Alvin Kamara.

 

That is possible-  but Kamara is clearly a gifted football player.    He did more in one season than McK has EVER done.    Jerrick so far looks more like a combine superstar and less like a football player.    

 

I urge caution with some of these pie-in-the-sky expectations and comps.   System alone does not grant one superior vision.  

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Teams have a year of film on how Kamara is used.  Sophomore slumps are not entirely myth.

 

Teams will be spending 2018 learning to their detriment how KS uses McKinnon.

 

Heath equal (for the players and their respective QBs), I bet McKinnon's production won't lag Kamara's all that much.  I will be setting their respective acquisition values accordingly.

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14 minutes ago, Rolling Thunder said:

Teams have a year of film on how Kamara is used.  Sophomore slumps are not entirely myth.

 

Teams will be spending 2018 learning to their detriment how KS uses McKinnon.

 

Heath equal (for the players and their respective QBs), I bet McKinnon's production won't lag Kamara's all that much.  I will be setting their respective acquisition values accordingly.

 

 

Teams had 16 games of film on how to stop kamara knowing he would avg about 15 touches per game post AP getting cut and it didnt happen. Payton is a master play caller.  Studying 1season of film is not going to shut him down, if anything he gets better at learning his position, how the offense is run in depth and what defenses are doing, Studying film is a 2 way street and separates gifted players from great players. Kamara showed us how gifted he is with just a basic understanding of Paytons offense, this season he will have the opportunity to show us if he can become a great player

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20 minutes ago, Rolling Thunder said:

Teams have a year of film on how Kamara is used.  Sophomore slumps are not entirely myth.

 

Teams will be spending 2018 learning to their detriment how KS uses McKinnon.

 

Heath equal (for the players and their respective QBs), I bet McKinnon's production won't lag Kamara's all that much.  I will be setting their respective acquisition values accordingly.

 

Are you basing it on the same amount of touches that kamara averages or are u assuming jerick will be the lead rb like ingram is the lead rb for the saints?

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1 hour ago, dashoe said:

 

Are you basing it on the same amount of touches that kamara averages or are u assuming jerick will be the lead rb like ingram is the lead rb for the saints?

 

Not sure I would use a comparison with Ingram, but yes, I believe that McKinnon will get the opportunity to lead what I am relatively certain will be one of the most productive offenses in the league, so long as JG plays.  

 

McKinnon for me is about as sure a bet in PPR as anything this coming season.  I won't engage in a debate where he'll end up relative to the proven elite PPR RBs in the league.  I am simply convinced he'll be very productive, such that he'll return acceptable to terrific value depending on whatever his cost ends up being,

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18 minutes ago, NYR Fan 116894 said:

McKinnon dynasty owners:

 

Animated GIF

 

This gif makes me lol every time 

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Somewhat predictable, but Zimmer could have declined to comment:

 

"Zimmer told ESPN’s Courtney Cronin McKinnon is worth the money."

 

Zimmer said, “He hit the hole much better last year, accelerated out, good in pass protection even though he’s a smaller guy. Great guy. We’re going miss him.”

 

During a breakfast interview this week, Shananhan said this:

 

“I feel like if you’re not at 230 pounds, people say you can’t handle it for the whole year. I personally think guys who are 230 pounds have a hard time handling it for the whole year. It’s just hard to do that for 16 games in the NFL, no matter who you are. So I really don’t wish that on anybody, to tell you the truth. I’d want to balance him out, and whomever we had I’d want to do that. But you’re gonna have a lead guy, one guy who’s going to get in more than the other people, and that’s what Jerick is for us.”

 

Not commenting on what his redraft or auction price ought to be, but McKinnon is going to be consistently productive in PPR.  I bet he proves to be durable too.  He is one of the more reliable players in my initial rankings.

 

 

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So should I be keeping Mckinnon over Tyreke Hill in my Keeper league? Neither player is my rb1 or wr1.

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9 minutes ago, sberko1243 said:

So should I be keeping Mckinnon over Tyreke Hill in my Keeper league? Neither player is my rb1 or wr1.

 

Go post in the “asst coach” forum.  There’s a lot that goes into a call like this.  

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On 3/27/2018 at 7:46 AM, JSA2422 said:

 

This gif makes me lol every time 

 

fIwBWTo.gif%5B

 

Edited by lolcopter

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