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Jerick McKinnon 2018 Outlook

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I don't know, I'm just getting that Lamar Miller feeling all over again. Remember when Houston signed him and he was going to destroy the NFL with his amazing YPC and otherwordly skills? 

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7 minutes ago, wonderbread said:

I don't know, I'm just getting that Lamar Miller feeling all over again. Remember when Houston signed him and he was going to destroy the NFL with his amazing YPC and otherwordly skills? 

 

McKinnon isn't an RB1 for anyone though.  Miller was getting drafted as one back in '16, and was a top 5 or 6 back for a lot of people.  McKinnon is an RB2, and no more, and that's only because he won free agent RB musical chairs- he's got the path to volume that few guys fail to get.  

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1 hour ago, wonderbread said:

I don't know, I'm just getting that Lamar Miller feeling all over again. Remember when Houston signed him and he was going to destroy the NFL with his amazing YPC and otherwordly skills? 

 

Getting this same vibe....

only Miller actually did something before being traded. 

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2 hours ago, BrianM said:

 

McKinnon isn't an RB1 for anyone though.  Miller was getting drafted as one back in '16, and was a top 5 or 6 back for a lot of people.  McKinnon is an RB2, and no more, and that's only because he won free agent RB musical chairs- he's got the path to volume that few guys fail to get.  

 

In PPR he's an RB1. He was a top-15 RB last year despite not getting snaps until week 5. 

 

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1 hour ago, joshua18 said:

 

In PPR he's an RB1. He was a top-15 RB last year despite not getting snaps until week 5. 

 

 

What he did on the Vikings production wise is almost irrelevant for fantasy purposes to what he will do on the Niners.  I think a better framework is looking at the volume Hyde received last season and how mckinnon plugs into that system. If Shanny uses him the same way with more targets he could be a ppr beast as a legit top5.

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2 hours ago, dashoe said:

 

What he did on the Vikings production wise is almost irrelevant for fantasy purposes to what he will do on the Niners.  I think a better framework is looking at the volume Hyde received last season and how mckinnon plugs into that system. If Shanny uses him the same way with more targets he could be a ppr beast as a legit top5.

 

He may produce pretty well, but it’ll be a cold day when he’s a top 5 RB.

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33 minutes ago, petekrum said:

 

He may produce pretty well, but it’ll be a cold day when he’s a top 5 RB.

 

Carlos Hyde finished as the #8 rb in ppr on a bad SF team

I drafted Hyde last season because i bet on the volume of his situation

I expect the team to be better and the rb's to produce more 

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6 hours ago, Impreza178 said:

 

Getting this same vibe....

only Miller actually did something before being traded. 

 

You're missing on this one. 

 

Shanahan has his guy.  He is going to mine McKinnon's PPR ceiling, which in this new system is substantial.

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34 minutes ago, FantasyGuru24 said:

I expect Devonta Freeman numbers from 2016

 

1000 yards rushing + 500 receiving is lofty, but I like the optimism.

 

46 minutes ago, dashoe said:

 

Carlos Hyde finished as the #8 rb in ppr on a bad SF team

I drafted Hyde last season because i bet on the volume of his situation

I expect the team to be better and the rb's to produce more 

 

4 minutes ago, Rolling Thunder said:

 

You're missing on this one. 

 

Shanahan has his guy.  He is going to mine McKinnon's PPR ceiling, which in this new system is substantial.

 

I like that I picked McKinnon off waivers last season, and it’s great he’s on my dynasty team will DHenry’s recent devaluation, but I have trouble determining his draft value in re-draft. Where do yous see his “value” pick?

 

I think he’ll do well in SF, but I’m wary about his durability + the Breida-JoeWilliams factor.

 

 

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8 minutes ago, cohenstantinople said:

 

1000 yards rushing + 500 receiving is lofty, but I like the optimism.

 

 

 

I like that I picked McKinnon off waivers last season, and it’s great he’s on my dynasty team will DHenry’s recent devaluation, but I have trouble determining his draft value in re-draft. Where do yous see his “value” pick?

 

I think he’ll do well in SF, but I’m wary about his durability + the Breida-JoeWilliams factor.

 

 

 

Joe williams is the unknown factor and breida is the known factor. Breida couldnt displace hyde when given the opportunities last season; supposedly they were supposed to be a thunder and lightning combo and it never happened it was all Hyde thundering and moving the ball. joe williams we have never seen play and he is coming off of an injury. Shanny letting Hyde go and signing mckinnon to a big contract with joe on the roster tells me mkinnon is the rb he plans to feature with brieda and joe doing the fill-ins.  Nothing is set in stone becuase joe/breida could make it a real competition in camp earning more consideration in the offense but the mkinnon signing makes the obvious statement; its his job to lose

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8 hours ago, wonderbread said:

I don't know, I'm just getting that Lamar Miller feeling all over again. Remember when Houston signed him and he was going to destroy the NFL with his amazing YPC and otherwordly skills? 

 

In defense of Lamar, he was playing with the worst QB of all  time.

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I'm buying in this year. I like him a lot. Obviously depends on price once draft time hits.

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20 minutes ago, cohenstantinople said:

 

1000 yards rushing + 500 receiving is lofty, but I like the optimism.

 

 

 

I like that I picked McKinnon off waivers last season, and it’s great he’s on my dynasty team will DHenry’s recent devaluation, but I have trouble determining his draft value in re-draft. Where do yous see his “value” pick?

 

I think he’ll do well in SF, but I’m wary about his durability + the Breida-JoeWilliams factor.

 

 

 

Folks, there is no doubt that Shanahan intends to ride McKinnon long and hard.  

 

I bet that you never hear from Williams again.  He almost got cut this off-season.

 

I bet Breida, for all his talent (which is decent), is there to give McKinnon a rest when he needs it.  Shanahan has said so much, and he's been true to his word so far.  

 

The draft will be worth monitoring, but the rookie they pick up will need to be exceptional to upset Shanny's big plans for  McKinnon.

 

I am so sure of McKinnon's high usage in what I believe will be a productive offense that the only guys I would definitely take before him in PPR are, Bell, Elliot, Gurley, DJ, Kamara, Fournette, Cook, Gordon and Freeman.  Yes, I believe McKinnon may end up out-performing Hunt, Ingram, Mixon and McCaffrey.  That is how well his skill set marries with the particular circumstances in SF.

 

 

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I’d rather have Mixon or A. Robinson at the same price as McKinnon.

 

Maybe he was a bad fit with the Vikings, but he wasn’t that impressive.  

 

I didn’t see anything that would suggest he could be a workhorse.  I will admit he flashed at times, but I worry about his consistency with volume work.

 

I liked McKinnon in the 4th round, but he’s now in the 3rd round and I’m getting nerves.  Currently Lewis or Berkhead offer better value much later.

 

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2 hours ago, FantasyGuru24 said:

I expect Devonta Freeman numbers from 2016

Possibly a bit better because there is no obvious Tevin Coleman on the 49ers roster.

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1 hour ago, seanismorris said:

I’d rather have Mixon or A. Robinson at the same price as McKinnon.

 

Maybe he was a bad fit with the Vikings, but he wasn’t that impressive.  

 

I didn’t see anything that would suggest he could be a workhorse.  I will admit he flashed at times, but I worry about his consistency with volume work.

 

I liked McKinnon in the 4th round, but he’s now in the 3rd round and I’m getting nerves.  Currently Lewis or Berkhead offer better value much later.

 

 

Not sure I'd use "bad fit" to describe his Minny circumstances.  "Underutilized" is more accurate IMO.

 

Did you know that in the 7 games that McKinnon received at least 5 targets last season, he posted nearly 19 PPG in PPR?  Did you also know that Hyde, as ill-suited for Shanahan's offense as he was, averaged 5.5 targets per game over his 16 games last season?  If McKinnon is utilized for a full season like he was utilized in those 7 games, he will be a top 5 RB in PPR in 2018.

 

He's the show in SF folks.  You can bet he'll be utilized more than enough to put up the sort of numbers that he put up in those 7 games last season.

 

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3 minutes ago, Rolling Thunder said:

 

Not sure I'd use "bad fit" to describe his Minny circumstances.  "Underutilized" is more accurate IMO.

 

Did you know that in the 7 games that McKinnon received at least 5 targets last season, he posted nearly 19 PPG in PPR?  Did you also know that Hyde, as ill-suited for Shanahan's offense as he was, averaged 5.5 targets per game over his 16 games last season?  If McKinnon is utilized for a full season like he was utilized in those 7 games, he will be a top 5 RB in PPR in 2018.

 

He's the show in SF folks.  You can bet he'll be utilized more than enough to put up the sort of numbers that he put up in those 7 games last season.

 

Yep. I got all that.

 

But why was he underutilized?  They did everything possible to put someone else on the field other than McKinnon.

 

I don’t know why... he generally grades out pretty well.  Even going back to the draft, he showed excellent athleticism...

 

I have to conclude the Vikings didn’t believe in his durability.

 

McKinnon is very high risk in the 3rd without answers.  I don’t think answers will be coming.

 

McKinnon was a great upside sleeper, but the hype has made him unattractive...

 

I’m always looking for value... like Wilson threw 34TDs last year (2nd most in the league) and 2 of his top3 receivers are gone.

 

Where’s the Baldwin hype train?  Hopefully it misses the station so I can capitalize.  I like that kind of value...

 

 

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2 minutes ago, seanismorris said:

Yep. I got all that.

 

But why was he underutilized?  They did everything possible to put someone else on the field other than McKinnon.

 

I don’t know why... he generally grades out pretty well.  Even going back to the draft, he showed excellent athleticism...

 

I have to conclude the Vikings didn’t believe in his durability.

 

McKinnon is very high risk in the 3rd without answers.  I don’t think answers will be coming.

 

McKinnon was a great upside sleeper, but the hype has made him unattractive...

 

I’m always looking for value... like Wilson threw 34TDs last year (2nd most in the league) and 2 of his top3 receivers are gone.

 

Where’s the Baldwin hype train?  Hopefully it misses the station so I can capitalize.  I like that kind of value...

 

 

 

Shhhh...

 

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This one is going to seem really obvious in hind-sight.  Shanahan loves riding a featured back in the running game and the passing game.  Shanahan has now a proven track record of offensive success.  And the 49ers went out and got McKinnon and paid him big bucks.  McKinnon is going to be an offensive centerpiece and is going to have a big year.

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I'll throw a dart at Breida in the last round of my PPR redraft.  

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9 hours ago, seanismorris said:

I’d rather have Mixon or A. Robinson at the same price as McKinnon.

 

I liked McKinnon in the 4th round, but he’s now in the 3rd round and I’m getting nerves.  Currently Lewis or Berkhead offer better value much later.

 

 

Mixon will cost significantly more as his ADP will rise, though I agree that ARob will be similarly priced. I’m not sure who I would chose between those two yet. But I’d definitely definitely go McK over Lewis (because of volume) and Burkhead (because he’s an RB for the Bilichick, and that backfield is always a headache to reckon).

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8 hours ago, SharkSwimmer said:

Possibly a bit better because there is no obvious Tevin Coleman on the 49ers roster.

 

Better? Wasn't Freeman like the #1 RB that year?

 

Crazy talk.

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7 hours ago, seanismorris said:

Yep. I got all that.

 

But why was he underutilized?  They did everything possible to put someone else on the field other than McKinnon.

 

I don’t know why... he generally grades out pretty well.  Even going back to the draft, he showed excellent athleticism...

 

I have to conclude the Vikings didn’t believe in his durability.

 

McKinnon is very high risk in the 3rd without answers.  I don’t think answers will be coming.

 

McKinnon was a great upside sleeper, but the hype has made him unattractive...

 

I’m always looking for value... like Wilson threw 34TDs last year (2nd most in the league) and 2 of his top3 receivers are gone.

 

Where’s the Baldwin hype train?  Hopefully it misses the station so I can capitalize.  I like that kind of value...

 

 

 

I'm all over Baldwin this year.

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