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Jerick McKinnon 2018 Outlook

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8 hours ago, seanismorris said:

McKinnon is very high risk in the 3rd without answers.  I don’t think answers will be coming.

 

Last I checked, McKinnon had an early 6th round ADP in PPR.  I know it's early, and his ADP will undoubtedly rise, but he's no where near 3rd round at this point.

 

Anyway, I have said my peace for the benefit of early participants in this thread.  Going forward, I am going to resist sounding like a broken record and, in the

process, shooting myself in the foot by adding any more fuel to McKinnon's currently modest hype train.

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10 hours ago, seanismorris said:

I’d rather have Mixon or A. Robinson at the same price as McKinnon.

 

Maybe he was a bad fit with the Vikings, but he wasn’t that impressive.  

 

I didn’t see anything that would suggest he could be a workhorse.  I will admit he flashed at times, but I worry about his consistency with volume work.

 

I liked McKinnon in the 4th round, but he’s now in the 3rd round and I’m getting nerves.  Currently Lewis or Berkhead offer better value much later.

 

 

Same price give me mckinnon over mixon sharing a backfield with Gio.  I'll take a feature rb over a wr like Arob in the 3rd because I can pick up wr's cheaper in later rounds/waiver plus the influx of startable rb's suppresses wr prices so 3rd is too early to grab a wr.

Lewis shares a backfield with henry and burkehead is a NE rb so good luck guessing what u will get week to week in teems of production. There are alot of touches in the SF offense and the rb is used alot.

Edited by dashoe

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I like him, but I'm tempered since he's never handled the workhorse role.  He's had chances too when Peterson went down in the past.   I still think somebody mixes in here to some degree.    Where I'd worry most about McKinnon is TD production.   I know his role has been limited but he has only 12 TD's in four seasons.  

 

Also, i'm going to either bump or start a Doug Baldwin thread, as the few of you mentioning him has piqued my interest to discuss further.

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1 hour ago, dmb3684 said:

 

Better? Wasn't Freeman like the #1 RB that year?

 

Crazy talk.

You may be thinking of 2014.  In 2016, Freeman ran for 1079 yards and scored 11 TDs.  He also had 54-456-2 receiving.  Solid but nowhere near Zeke, David Johnson, Lev Bell, and the like.

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10 minutes ago, BrianM said:

I like him, but I'm tempered since he's never handled the workhorse role.  He's had chances too when Peterson went down in the past.   I still think somebody mixes in here to some degree.    Where I'd worry most about McKinnon is TD production.   I know his role has been limited but he has only 12 TD's in four seasons.  

 

Also, i'm going to either bump or start a Doug Baldwin thread, as the few of you mentioning him has piqued my interest to discuss further.

 

+1.  Definitely a guy I’m interested in but previous chances at the starting role have been...inconsistent....shall we say.  

 

I dont think there’s a chance he’s still going in the 6th by August.   Early third.    There’s not enough projectable starting workhorse backs to go much later.    He has top 10 upside and a rb2 floor even if someone else gets mixed in. 

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2 hours ago, Rolling Thunder said:

 

Last I checked, McKinnon had an early 6th round ADP in PPR.  I know it's early, and his ADP will undoubtedly rise, but he's no where near 3rd round at this point.

 

Anyway, I have said my peace for the benefit of early participants in this thread.  Going forward, I am going to resist sounding like a broken record and, in the

process, shooting myself in the foot by adding any more fuel to McKinnon's currently modest hype train.

There is very little consensus on ADP this time of year, but I’ve been watching him shoot up the boards.  

 

This is one is usually the most up to date, he’s current #37... (usually precludes ADP moves)

https://www.fantasypros.com/nfl/rankings/ppr-cheatsheets.php

 

I also watch what people are thinking in the practice drafts... he isn’t being taken in the 3rd yet but he’s rising.

https://fantasyfootballcalculator.com/mock-draft

 

Unless something changes in the draft, I’m fairly confident he’ll go late 3rd - early 4th.

 

The days McKinnon being a steal are over...  I wish we could have drafted last week ?

 

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2 minutes ago, seanismorris said:

There is very little consensus on ADP this time of year, but I’ve been watching him shoot up the boards.  

 

This is one is usually the most up to date, he’s current #37... (usually precludes ADP moves)

https://www.fantasypros.com/nfl/rankings/ppr-cheatsheets.php

 

I also watch what people are thinking in the practice drafts... he isn’t being taken in the 3rd yet but he’s rising.

https://fantasyfootballcalculator.com/mock-draft

 

Unless something changes in the draft, I’m fairly confident he’ll go late 3rd - early 4th.

 

The days McKinnon being a steal are over...  I wish we could have drafted last week ?

 

Late 3rd will still be a steal.

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As a Vikings fan and former owner of McKinnon in fantasy.  it is good news that he is starting and will get the lead role, however he is small and is injury prone.  I just don't see him making it an entire season.  When healthy though he is an every week starter at least until he wears down.

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10 minutes ago, SharkSwimmer said:

Late 3rd will still be a steal.

Exactly-  a lot of people will be thinking that.   That why it isn’t likely.  

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11 minutes ago, StuPitt said:

As a Vikings fan and former owner of McKinnon in fantasy.  it is good news that he is starting and will get the lead role, however he is small and is injury prone.  I just don't see him making it an entire season.  When healthy though he is an every week starter at least until he wears down.

Jerick McKinnon:  5'9 205 lbs.

Devonta Freeman:  5'8 206 lbs.

 

What else do you have?

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2 minutes ago, Impreza178 said:

Exactly-  a lot of people will be thinking that.   That why it isn’t likely.  

Think he will creep into the 2nd round?

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2 minutes ago, SharkSwimmer said:

Think he will creep into the 2nd round?

In PPR it’s going to happen in some leagues.   Standard- late third MIGHT hold.   But it only takes one guy to think that SF is going to be special.   

Edited by Impreza178

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3 minutes ago, SharkSwimmer said:

Late 3rd will still be a steal.

I’m concerned about durability, so I was looking through the old notes from roto.

 

Jerick McKinnon rushed seven times for 46 yards and caught 2-of-3 targets for nine yards in the Vikings' Week 14 loss to the Panthers.

McKinnon only got one touch after halftime, as he and Latavius Murray were complete non-factors in this one against the Panthers' stout run defense. The Vikings were playing catch-up the entire second half, and Case Keenum ripped off 44 attempts. McKinnon has had a rough past month-plus, but he's still getting enough work to sustain RB3/FLEX appeal next week against Cincy.
 

This is just strange.  If the Vikings are playing from behind, McKinnon should have had an increased role, as he’s the passing back.

 

Anyone know his pass blocking grade?

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5 minutes ago, SharkSwimmer said:

Jerick McKinnon:  5'9 205 lbs.

Devonta Freeman:  5'8 206 lbs.

 

What else do you have?

Wasn’t Freeman injured quite a bit last year and lost work to Coleman...

 

I’m not sure there is a relationship between size and durability anyways...

 

I am interested in McKinnon’s injury history, but i’m not seeing it analyzed anywhere.

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5 minutes ago, seanismorris said:

We need someone to pay for PFF ?

 

PFF (not paid)

This grade has everything to do with the numbers in the contract, as McKinnon’s numbers on the field have been pretty good at times. While running the football in the NFL has less value than many believe, production in the passing game is a stable trait for running backs, and McKinnon has been good in this facet of the game during his time with Minnesota. His 1.53 yards per route run mark in 2017 was top-20 at his position, while his 2.25 number in a complementary role in 2015 was third.

 

As a runner, McKinnon’s efficiency has been very dependent on the play of his supporting cast (which is true of most backs). When the 2014 and 2015 Minnesota offenses were 14th and 13th, respectively, in run-blocking grades, McKinnon averaged 4.8 and 5.1 yards per carry. When they were 23rd and 28th in 2016 and 2017, respectively, McKinnon’s efficiency fell to 3.4 and 3.8 yards per carry. While he graded well in our system in 2017 (he was the eighth-highest graded back), it’s clear that his individual talent alone is not enough to overcome poor play along the rest of the offense.

 

https://www.profootballfocus.com/news/pro-deal-grader-jerick-mckinnon-san-francisco-49ers

Edited by seanismorris

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10 minutes ago, seanismorris said:

 

PFF (not paid)

This grade has everything to do with the numbers in the contract, as McKinnon’s numbers on the field have been pretty good at times. While running the football in the NFL has less value than many believe, production in the passing game is a stable trait for running backs, and McKinnon has been good in this facet of the game during his time with Minnesota. His 1.53 yards per route run mark in 2017 was top-20 at his position, while his 2.25 number in a complementary role in 2015 was third.

 

As a runner, McKinnon’s efficiency has been very dependent on the play of his supporting cast (which is true of most backs). When the 2014 and 2015 Minnesota offenses were 14th and 13th, respectively, in run-blocking grades, McKinnon averaged 4.8 and 5.1 yards per carry. When they were 23rd and 28th in 2016 and 2017, respectively, McKinnon’s efficiency fell to 3.4 and 3.8 yards per carry. While he graded well in our system in 2017 (he was the eighth-highest graded back), it’s clear that his individual talent alone is not enough to overcome poor play along the rest of the offense.

 

https://www.profootballfocus.com/news/pro-deal-grader-jerick-mckinnon-san-francisco-49ers

Basically betting on McKinnon is betting the 49rs offense, which is a decent bet.

 

I’m still not seeing “bell cow” in McKinnon’s future.  If I’m going to bet (with to little information) I’ll say his upside is Duke Johnson.

 

Duke Johnson is in the top10-15 RB range (PPR).  

 

McKinnon is currently RB14 (37th overall) so priced appropriately.

Edited by seanismorris

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2 minutes ago, seanismorris said:

Basically betting on McKinnon is betting the 49rs offense, which is a decent bet.

 

I’m still not seeing “bell cow” in McKinnon’s future.  If I’m going to bet (with to little information) I’ll say his upside is Duke Johnson.

 

Duke Johnson is in the top10-15 RB range (PPR).

 

Then you're saying his move to SF won't change his production. He was a top-15 PPR RB last year. Counting from when he first saw meaningful snaps (week 5), he was a top-10 RB.

 

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6 minutes ago, joshua18 said:

 

Then you're saying his move to SF won't change his production. He was a top-15 PPR RB last year. Counting from when he first saw meaningful snaps (week 5), he was a top-10 RB.

 

Pretty much.  I read over the 49rs statement again.  

 

I think McKinnon is going to be the 49rs “change of pace” 1st & 2nd down guy, and dominate in 3rd downs.

 

In other words, someone else is going to be pounding the goal line for TDs...

 

McKinnon was #17 last year, his upside is #11 this year (PPR).

 

 

Edited by seanismorris

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16 minutes ago, Impreza178 said:

@vikingapocalypse

enlighten us if u would be so kind 

 

Mckinnon is a short but stout guy. 32 reps on the bench is no joke. It has somewhat translated to pass protection, as he is pretty highly regarded in that department. PFF ranked him the 8th best RB in pass protection last year

 

 

Ive always been a bit of a mckinnon truther. Hard to take anything from that 16 year, but i understand peoples hesitation. To me, hes been someone ive seen grow in the position. Especially considering this sparq king was a former qb. He runs like hes alot bigger then he is. The way he runs into guys sometimes your convinced hes gonna pop up hurt, but he pops right back up again. Ive yet to see any true durability issues besides an ankle in 16 i believe. Hes only fumbled like once or twice in his career as well. Dual threat with his pass catching chops. Its hard not to fall in love with the guy considering the contract SF gave him even if he has to share sometimes.

 

I pray to god he doesnt climb past the third round. And really i dont think he should. But hype has a way of getting out of control. I will be targetting, and a 3rd in both formats, i would consider. If you want him, youll have to pay.

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1 minute ago, seanismorris said:

Pretty much.  I read over the 49rs statement again.  

 

I think McKinnon is going to be the 49rs “change of pace” 1st & 2nd down guy, and dominate in 3rd downs.

 

 

What have you read that makes you believe the niners intend to use him as a change of pace? Thats a high price to pay for a change of pace back.

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2 minutes ago, vikingapocalypse said:

 

Mckinnon is a short but stout guy. 32 reps on the bench is no joke. It has somewhat translated to pass protection, as he is pretty highly regarded in that department. PFF ranked him the 8th best RB in pass protection last year

 

 

Ive always been a bit of a mckinnon truther. Hard to take anything from that 16 year, but i understand peoples hesitation. To me, hes been someone ive seen grow in the position. Especially considering this sparq king was a former qb. He runs like hes alot bigger then he is. The way he runs into guys sometimes your convinced hes gonna pop up hurt, but he pops right back up again. Ive yet to see any true durability issues besides an ankle in 16 i believe. Hes only fumbled like once or twice in his career as well. Dual threat with his pass catching chops. Its hard not to fall in love with the guy considering the contract SF gave him even if he has to share sometimes.

 

I pray to god he doesnt climb past the third round. And really i dont think he should. But hype has a way of getting out of control. I will be targetting, and a 3rd in both formats, i would consider. If you want him, youll have to pay.

I’d avoid him in standard, and consider him in the 4th round PPR.

 

The amount the 49rs paid him is curious.  Passing backs are getting paid... maybe to much.

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6 minutes ago, seanismorris said:

I’d avoid him in standard, and consider him in the 4th round PPR.

 

The amount the 49rs paid him is curious.  Passing backs are getting paid... maybe to much.

 

Its the type of back shanny is really drawn towards tho.  He loved freeman, he pounded the table for joe williams at the draft, he made breida(another high sparq athlete)an active part of the gameplan.

 

Anywhere else, id be more worried for a COP role, which as a dynasty owner was all i was hoping for. Paired with someone like henry in Tennessee perhaps; But with this contract, and this coach, i have less reservations. I could see a scenario where he ends up an rb1. Not to say he will, but the upside is there with this landing spot.

Edited by vikingapocalypse
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4 minutes ago, vikingapocalypse said:

 

What have you read that makes you believe the niners intend to use him as a change of pace? Thats a high price to pay for a change of pace back.

49ers coach Kyle Shanahan said Jerick McKinnon is good on all three downs.

"We think he's a great third-down back," Shanahan said. "We also think he's good on first and second down, too." The 49ers signed McKinnon to a workhorse-level contract, and everything which has come out since the signing suggests they view him as the unquestioned starter. Shanahan has coached a top-15 fantasy back five of his last six seasons. Mar 27 - 8:57 AM

 

I think the hype train is running on the workhorse contract...

 

From PFF

McKinnon joins a backfield that includes 2017 undrafted rookie Matt Breida (4.4 yards per carry on 105 carries as a rookie) and 2017 fourth-round pick Joe Williams, who spent his rookie season on injured reserve with an ankle injury. While it’s likely McKinnon will get a plurality of the snaps for the 49ers, he’s never carried the ball more than 20 times in a game in his career.

 

I think Breida + Williams will get the majority of the 1st, 2nd & goalline work.

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