smeeze

Julio Jones 2018 Season Outlook

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Skipping OTA's because he wants to "update" his contract. I'm not saying Julio is or isn't worth more but these players hold out for more money but if they start to suck would they let the team "update" the contract and pay them less? 

I think Julio is overrated and I would never draft him in the first round. 

Maybe Ryan is apart of the problem but has Julio been that amazing? 

In 2016 he caught 136 balls for 1870 yards and 8 TD's. That was an amazing year but there isn't much else to see IMO. 

In 2014, 2016 & 2017 he has 15 TD's combined while averaging about 90 catches per season. 

I'm not saying he's a bad player but I don't think he's worth a 1st round pick. 

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11 minutes ago, Under500Forever said:

Skipping OTA's because he wants to "update" his contract. I'm not saying Julio is or isn't worth more but these players hold out for more money but if they start to suck would they let the team "update" the contract and pay them less? 

I think Julio is overrated and I would never draft him in the first round. 

Maybe Ryan is apart of the problem but has Julio been that amazing? 

In 2016 he caught 136 balls for 1870 yards and 8 TD's. That was an amazing year but there isn't much else to see IMO. 

In 2014, 2016 & 2017 he has 15 TD's combined while averaging about 90 catches per season. 

I'm not saying he's a bad player but I don't think he's worth a 1st round pick. 

Never draft in the 1st round of fantasy? He is a target and reception hog, which is great for PPR. Standard you have to be more wary of him. Standard is all about scoring TD's. They provide so much more consistent weekly value in standard.

 

Teams do "update" contracts and pay players less. Restructures and pay cuts happen. They can happen because teams have leverage to do them. Just like players can hold out for a raise because they have leverage to do so. Aaron Donald has all the leverage in the world right now. The Rams are eventually going to have to pay or franchise him.

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The previous three years, saw him with six or more touchdown in each. I would think based of past history, a uptic to that number (six) is more then reasonable to project.

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11 minutes ago, devaster said:

Never draft in the 1st round of fantasy? He is a target and reception hog, which is great for PPR. Standard you have to be more wary of him. Standard is all about scoring TD's. They provide so much more consistent weekly value in standard.

 

Teams do "update" contracts and pay players less. Restructures and pay cuts happen. They can happen because teams have leverage to do them. Just like players can hold out for a raise because they have leverage to do so. Aaron Donald has all the leverage in the world right now. The Rams are eventually going to have to pay or franchise him.

 

I know contract restructuring does happen and I wasn't clear but I meant a guy like Julio. Would he take less money if he struggled? I doubt it.

I am not a fan of Julio in the 1st round. The targets are good but he has under 90 receptions in each of his last 2 seasons. Last year he had only 3 games over 100 yards receiving. 

A guy like Golden Tate has had more receptions (90+) and I think the same number of TD's between 2016 & 2017. He did have about 300-350 less yards in each of the seasons. Golden Tate was going in Round 5 in 2017 mock drafts. This is just an example but your drafting Julio 4 rounds before Tate to get 300 extra yards over the course of the season. Julio could blow up at anytime but I'm going by the stats over the last 2 years.

I'm just saying Julio hasn't been that dominant in his last 2 years to warrant a top 5-7 selection, hell not even the first round in my book. 

 

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1 hour ago, Under500Forever said:

Skipping OTA's because he wants to "update" his contract. I'm not saying Julio is or isn't worth more but these players hold out for more money but if they start to suck would they let the team "update" the contract and pay them less? 

I think Julio is overrated and I would never draft him in the first round. 

Maybe Ryan is apart of the problem but has Julio been that amazing? 

In 2016 he caught 136 balls for 1870 yards and 8 TD's. That was an amazing year but there isn't much else to see IMO. 

In 2014, 2016 & 2017 he has 15 TD's combined while averaging about 90 catches per season. 

I'm not saying he's a bad player but I don't think he's worth a 1st round pick. 

if he sucked the team would update his contract by getting rid of it and cutting him like what just happened to dez 

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Posted (edited)

Julio is frustrating and I wouldn't take him in the 1st round again. The guy has the talent to be the #1OA, but his QB and usage limit his productivity greatly. If he's there at the end of the 1st round (ppr) I will easily pass. It sucks to value him that way, love the real player and think he's incredible.

Edited by Mr.STD
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58 minutes ago, Mr.STD said:

Julio is frustrating and I wouldn't take him in the 1st round again. The guy has the talent to be the #1OA, but his QB and usage limit his productivity greatly. If he's there at the end of the 1st round (ppr) I will easily pass. It sucks to value him that way, love the real player and think he's incredible.

 

He's better in real life than in fantasy. 

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22 hours ago, devaster said:

Never draft in the 1st round of fantasy? He is a target and reception hog, which is great for PPR. Standard you have to be more wary of him. Standard is all about scoring TD's. They provide so much more consistent weekly value in standard.

 

Teams do "update" contracts and pay players less. Restructures and pay cuts happen. They can happen because teams have leverage to do them. Just like players can hold out for a raise because they have leverage to do so. Aaron Donald has all the leverage in the world right now. The Rams are eventually going to have to pay or franchise him.

 

This is actually not true - Donald has almost no leverage right now. He's on the last year of his rookie deal and the team can franchise him for the next 2 years...

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33 minutes ago, smeeze said:

 

This is actually not true - Donald has almost no leverage right now. He's on the last year of his rookie deal and the team can franchise him for the next 2 years...

I mentioned franchising him... some positions are still very costly to franchise like a pass rusher though. Donald has leverage as long as he continues to put up DPoY numbers every season.

 

Julio dominates every season and still draws most of the coverage in his direction.

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2 minutes ago, devaster said:

I mentioned franchising him... some positions are still very costly to franchise like a pass rusher though. Donald has leverage as long as he continues to put up DPoY numbers every season.

 

Julio dominates every season and still draws most of the coverage in his direction.

 

3 years of team control including the $6.89 million owed this season, followed by 2 years of the franchise tag is far more team-friendly than a mega contract making Donald the highest-paid defensive player in NFL history. Sorry to derail the Julio thread with Aaron Donald talk, but he literally has almost no leverage right now. Julio has significantly more. 

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3 hours ago, NYR Fan 116894 said:

 

 

Julio Jones also has 5 straight seasons of fewer than 9 TDs; impressive since he's been top-5 in WR targets over that timespan from an MVP QB. 

 

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12 minutes ago, joshua18 said:

 

Julio Jones also has 5 straight seasons of fewer than 9 TDs; impressive since he's been top-5 in WR targets over that timespan from an MVP QB. 

 

I think it really does fall on Ryan. Ryan is talented, but he isn't getting it to Julio when it comes to scoring. Sometimes it is a benefit for a great WR playing with a crappy supporting cast and/or QB because they will be funneled the ball. Sometimes they benefit from playing with a great QB, but sometimes they don't if that QB spreads the ball around too much or won't force it into tight windows.

 

Maybe it is coaching scheme. Because Belichick and the CS in GB find ways to get their main receivers the ball in the end zone. All of that with Brady and Rodgers usually top-5 in the league for not turning the ball over. Maybe Ryan just isn't as accurate or as good as his career resume suggests. I think the problem is probably with Ryan.

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35 minutes ago, joshua18 said:

 

Julio Jones also has 5 straight seasons of fewer than 9 TDs; impressive since he's been top-5 in WR targets over that timespan from an MVP QB. 

 

 

True. Julio had 19 targets inside the 20 last year (tied for 11th in the league) and 11 targets inside the 10 (tied for 4th). 

 

I'm certainly not projecting 3 TD's for him again though. Some positive regression there. Likely back to the 6-8 range.

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2 hours ago, devaster said:

I think it really does fall on Ryan. Ryan is talented, but he isn't getting it to Julio when it comes to scoring. Sometimes it is a benefit for a great WR playing with a crappy supporting cast and/or QB because they will be funneled the ball. Sometimes they benefit from playing with a great QB, but sometimes they don't if that QB spreads the ball around too much or won't force it into tight windows.

 

Maybe it is coaching scheme. Because Belichick and the CS in GB find ways to get their main receivers the ball in the end zone. All of that with Brady and Rodgers usually top-5 in the league for not turning the ball over. Maybe Ryan just isn't as accurate or as good as his career resume suggests. I think the problem is probably with Ryan.

 

 

it's Matt Ryan and the schemes of having Julio draw extra coverage and taking the low risk play available.

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1 minute ago, dashoe said:

 

 

it's Matt Ryan and the schemes of having Julio draw extra coverage and taking the low risk play available.

But as the previous poster has shown, Julio does get targets inside and 10 and 20 yard lines. Are those good targets though? Are they trying too many back shoulder fades into double/triple coverage where the ball won't be catch-able for anyone? Then it comes down to offensive scheme.

 

I remember watching the Falcons in scoring position against Philly last season in the playoffs and thought their plays to score with Julio and get Julio open were rather predictable.

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2 hours ago, devaster said:

I think it really does fall on Ryan. Ryan is talented, but he isn't getting it to Julio when it comes to scoring. Sometimes it is a benefit for a great WR playing with a crappy supporting cast and/or QB because they will be funneled the ball. Sometimes they benefit from playing with a great QB, but sometimes they don't if that QB spreads the ball around too much or won't force it into tight windows.

 

Maybe it is coaching scheme. Because Belichick and the CS in GB find ways to get their main receivers the ball in the end zone. All of that with Brady and Rodgers usually top-5 in the league for not turning the ball over. Maybe Ryan just isn't as accurate or as good as his career resume suggests. I think the problem is probably with Ryan.

 

Ryan force fed Julio 203 targets in 2015 and Julio still only got 8 TDs. Shanahan was also the OC that year.

 

I dont think its a problem that can be explained.

 

 

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56 minutes ago, devaster said:

But as the previous poster has shown, Julio does get targets inside and 10 and 20 yard lines. Are those good targets though? Are they trying too many back shoulder fades into double/triple coverage where the ball won't be catch-able for anyone? Then it comes down to offensive scheme.

 

I remember watching the Falcons in scoring position against Philly last season in the playoffs and thought their plays to score with Julio and get Julio open were rather predictable.

 

https://www.thefantasyfootballers.com/articles/fantasy-football-film-study-is-julio-jones-a-poor-red-zone-wr/

 

Conclusion
After examining all 18 of these targets and the context/game situations surrounding each play, I’d say 9 of Julio’s 18 Red zone targets were even catchable. Two of them shouldn’t even be considered a target as Ryan threw it out of the back of the end zone. So his 27.78% RZ catch rate should be more like 50%. His teammate Mohamad Sanu’s 6 RZ TDs were also a bit fluky on 11 targets. 
 
 

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6 minutes ago, dashoe said:

 

https://www.thefantasyfootballers.com/articles/fantasy-football-film-study-is-julio-jones-a-poor-red-zone-wr/

 

Conclusion
After examining all 18 of these targets and the context/game situations surrounding each play, I’d say 9 of Julio’s 18 Red zone targets were even catchable. Two of them shouldn’t even be considered a target as Ryan threw it out of the back of the end zone. So his 27.78% RZ catch rate should be more like 50%. His teammate Mohamad Sanu’s 6 RZ TDs were also a bit fluky on 11 targets. 
 
 

 

Good article and read. Thanks for that. But what I see are a whole bunch of un-catchable balls thrown by Ryan. They whittled that 18 targets down to 9 catchable balls. Julio caught 5 of those. His catch rate in the RZ is fine. Ryan's accuracy rate is garbage though.

 

Julio should be due for some positive regression, but you have to wonder if Ryan will be able to aid that positive regression. 3 straight seasons under double digit TD's isn't encouraging. Julio should definitely bounce back to have around 7-8 TD's. But the pipe dream of a Julio with double digit TD's is unlikely. Ryan simply doesn't throw enough accurate balls in the RZ or the offensive plays called aren't good enough.

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40 minutes ago, dashoe said:

 

https://www.thefantasyfootballers.com/articles/fantasy-football-film-study-is-julio-jones-a-poor-red-zone-wr/

 

Conclusion
After examining all 18 of these targets and the context/game situations surrounding each play, I’d say 9 of Julio’s 18 Red zone targets were even catchable. Two of them shouldn’t even be considered a target as Ryan threw it out of the back of the end zone. So his 27.78% RZ catch rate should be more like 50%. His teammate Mohamad Sanu’s 6 RZ TDs were also a bit fluky on 11 targets. 
 
 

 

 

I argued this last year as well. Its like they feel obligated to give him "RZ Targets" because he is a stud, so they run that stupid fade to Julio that never works. Then they use the other downs to run the plays they actually want to run down there. Figure out something different in the RZ for him. Its obvious if its going in his direction what route its going to be and it just doesn't look good and has a very low chance of succeeding.

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1 hour ago, dashoe said:

 

https://www.thefantasyfootballers.com/articles/fantasy-football-film-study-is-julio-jones-a-poor-red-zone-wr/

 

Conclusion
After examining all 18 of these targets and the context/game situations surrounding each play, I’d say 9 of Julio’s 18 Red zone targets were even catchable. Two of them shouldn’t even be considered a target as Ryan threw it out of the back of the end zone. So his 27.78% RZ catch rate should be more like 50%. His teammate Mohamad Sanu’s 6 RZ TDs were also a bit fluky on 11 targets. 
 
 

 

There's always a non-Julio related excuse every year. 3 different OCs and 2 different HCs the past 5 seasons, yet only scoring more than 6 TDs once and never more than 8 TDs. 

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21 minutes ago, nromn said:

 

 

I argued this last year as well. Its like they feel obligated to give him "RZ Targets" because he is a stud, so they run that stupid fade to Julio that never works. Then they use the other downs to run the plays they actually want to run down there. Figure out something different in the RZ for him. Its obvious if its going in his direction what route its going to be and it just doesn't look good and has a very low chance of succeeding.

Those missed targets weren't all back shoulder fades like I thought they might be though. A good amount of those misses were simply bad throws by Ryan that could have been catchable with a more accurate pass.

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Just now, joshua18 said:

 

There's always a non-Julio related excuse every year. 3 different OCs and 2 different HCs the past 5 seasons, yet only scoring more than 6 TDs once and never more than 8 TDs. 

And Matt Ryan being the common denominator, in addition to Julio. Either way that isn't changing. Matt Ryan isn't going to suddenly get more accurate in the RZ. Julio won't score more than 8 TD's. But 6-8 are possible.

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 Jones’s lack of scoring seems to be by design. His percentage of QB Matt Ryan’s targets drops steadily the closer Atlanta gets to the goal line: from 32.8 percent of passes when the Falcons are at least 80 yards from the end zone to just a little more than half that — 16.7 percent — when they’re in the red zone.

julio-salfino-1018-2.png
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6 hours ago, devaster said:

Those missed targets weren't all back shoulder fades like I thought they might be though. A good amount of those misses were simply bad throws by Ryan that could have been catchable with a more accurate pass.

Well nothing is an absolute, but his RZ target numbers that the Julio supporters like to spew were greatly skewed by those junk jump balls in the EZ that they never connect on.

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