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Eric Ebron 2018 Outlook

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5 hours ago, CharlieWhitehurst said:

Jack Doyle had 4 TD'S last year with no TE competition. Highly doubt he will be getting many targets now. 

 

Well those 4 TD's represented nearly 30% of the TD's that Brissett (13 TD's) threw last year. The return of Luck with no competition would have likely doubled that number for Doyle. I was going to be targeting Doyle late in every league, especially PPR. So sad.

Edited by nonstopfan
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5 hours ago, CharlieWhitehurst said:

Jack Doyle had 4 TD'S last year with no TE competition. Highly doubt he will be getting many targets now. 

 

How many times did the Colts actually get down field and throw goal line passes?  

 

I feel like they spent most of the season punting from their own side of the field.

 

In 2017 he had the most passes thrown to him on the Colts inside of the 10 yard line.

 

In 2016 he was behind TYH and tied with Moncrief.

 

https://www.pro-football-reference.com/years/2017/redzone-receiving.htm

 

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5 hours ago, CharlieWhitehurst said:

Jack Doyle had 4 TD'S last year with no TE competition. Highly doubt he will be getting many targets now. 

 

With Luck back, he certainly will.

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12 minutes ago, nonstopfan said:

 

Well those 4 TD's represented nearly 30% of the TD's that Brissett (13 TD's) threw last year. The return of Luck with no competition would have likely doubled that number for Doyle. I was going to be targeting Doyle late in every league, especially PPR. So sad.

 

You still should. He's better than Ebron.

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6 hours ago, jumper said:

 

This guy is a fast starter, he's already well on his way to making the fanbase of his second consecutive team extremely salty about picking him.  Ebron is getting Mike Tolbert level grief here and without even vulturing a bunch of 1 yard TD runs.  I'd say this is a good move for Indy and at worst neutral for Doyle. As 96mnc said Ebron is likely going to play as a big slot receiver rather than as an inline blocker TE type like Ed Dickson but in real life you'd rather have Ebron rather than Dickson, real football != fantasy football.  There's still plenty of offensive snaps to go around in Indy even for two TEs; besides Doyle/Ebron you have TY and then a bunch of nobody WRs and Marlon Mack as your RB1.  Unless the Colts have a magic draft and get instant contributors at the RB position and probably 2 solid WR2 types than Ebron and Doyle are both still going to eat. 

 

Brissett had 400+ attempts last year, let's say Luck is back and the Colts revert to their more typical average of 350ish attempts per season. TY in his best years gets around 130-140 targets, that leaves another 200ish to go around for Ebron/Doyle, WR2 (LOL) Chester Rogers (who?), and the rest of the offense.  Presuming Doyle maintains his 75-80ish targets (which given the fewer number of attempts is actually an increase in overall target share), give 60ish to Ebron, 25 or so for the RB, and the rest for the WR scrapheap.  That's not a unrealistic distribution IMHO.  And should Indy draft an impact player like Saquon Barkley, you can move up the RB receptions to the 50ish range maybe?  Still not probably going to come out of the targets from one player exclusively.  Now that Crabtree is signed with the Ravens there's likely no significant WR free agent signing that could assume a heavy number of targets.  At the #6 draft position the Colts are unlikely to draft a WR, either Saquon or a OL makes the most sense and either won't be calamitous to an offense without many other receiving weapons.  Now if the Colts do something crazy like trade for Dez or something then I'll revisit this, but right not I'm not worried. 

 

Colts have like 14 draft picks.  They will be addressing the RB position.

 

Let me correctly myself... They will LIKELY be addressing the RB position.

 

With a healthy Andrew Luck I believe the pass attempts are going to be much closer to 600 than 350.  That defense still looks pretty bad IMO.  I don't think any team throws 350 attempts except teams from the 90s.

Edited by Dreams And Dwightmares

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5 hours ago, Dreams And Dwightmares said:

 

Colts have like 14 draft picks.  They will be addressing the RB position.

 

Let me correctly myself... They will LIKELY be addressing the RB position.

 

With a healthy Andrew Luck I believe the pass attempts are going to be much closer to 600 than 350.  That defense still looks pretty bad IMO.  I don't think any team throws 350 attempts except teams from the 90s.

 

All the RBs in the world won’t help unless 1) Luck is healthy, and 2) the defense gets an overhaul. 

 

I’d also suggest the o-line would benefit from repair and I’m underwhelmed by the WR corps: Chester Rogers and Ryan Grant are not the answer. They should take Decker and Pryor and hope one of these vets can pitch in, or get especially creative (lucky?) with rookie talent in the draft.

 

i see a troubled team playing from behind, Luck’s mortality in question, and Brissett making appearances to scramble for his life. They should hold a seance or exorcism or host a sacrifice before the draft

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17 hours ago, Dreams And Dwightmares said:

 

Colts have like 14 draft picks.  They will be addressing the RB position.

 

Let me correctly myself... They will LIKELY be addressing the RB position.

 

With a healthy Andrew Luck I believe the pass attempts are going to be much closer to 600 than 350.  That defense still looks pretty bad IMO.  I don't think any team throws 350 attempts except teams from the 90s.

 

Yes you’re correct, I mixed completions with attempts/targets. I believe my basic point stands that maintaining TYs target share still leaves plenty for TEs absent some major roster change. The remaining FA pool of WR isn’t elite talent, Indy is unlikely to use multiple high picks on WR (and this isn’t seen as a draft with a lot of WR elite talent anyway), and even if they draft Barkley he isn’t going to see 100+ targets. If

Ebron target share goes down it’s probably because of relative under-performance or drops.

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19 minutes ago, jumper said:

 

Yes you’re correct, I mixed completions with attempts/targets. I believe my basic point stands that maintaining TYs target share still leaves plenty for TEs absent some major roster change. The remaining FA pool of WR isn’t elite talent, Indy is unlikely to use multiple high picks on WR (and this isn’t seen as a draft with a lot of WR elite talent anyway), and even if they draft Barkley he isn’t going to see 100+ targets. If

Ebron target share goes down it’s probably because of relative under-performance or drops.

 

I hear you and you might be right.  

 

This situation reminds me a lot of Dwayne Allen / Coby Fleener.

 

Occassionally one or the other would get hurt and that meant the healthy guy would have a relevant couple of games, but more often than not both guys were just garbage and if you were forced to play one / made a poor decision and played one you were completely rolling the dice and praying for a TD.

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On 3/20/2018 at 8:00 PM, wonderbread said:

Lol, did you just call Andrew Luck a poor man's version of Matthew Stafford? 

Can I borrow the time machine you appear to be stuck in?  Got some bets I need to place.

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2 hours ago, JJ1223 said:

Can I borrow the time machine you appear to be stuck in?  Got some bets I need to place.

I wasn't disagreeing with him, just laughing at the comparison. If you take a look, you'll notice that I liked his original comment. No need to get all worked up. I remember when these forums were just a bunch of dudes looking for FF information and having a laugh. Seems everyone wants to compare jocks these days.

Edited by wonderbread

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16 minutes ago, wonderbread said:

I wasn't disagreeing with him, just laughing at the comparison. If you take a look, you'll notice that I liked his original comment. No need to get all worked up. I remember when these forums were just a bunch of dudes looking for FF information and having a laugh. Seems everyone wants to compare jocks these days.

Not worked up at all and definitely just having a laugh.  However, you clearly seemed to be insinuating that calling Luck a poor man's Stafford was a laughable comparison, even though it's actually scary accurate (check the numbers).  If I misread you, my bad, but either way, it's all in fun and I promise you no ill will intended.

 

As far as Ebron with Luck, I can definitely see him having a bump in production over last year.  Part of his problem was that he couldn't handle Stafford's rocket passes.  Luck should be a better pair, not that he throws particularly soft, but Stafford just absolutely rifles everything.  I don't think he will ever be a TD machine, he will probably stick around the 4-6 range, but I can absolutely see his recs and yards increasing.

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21 hours ago, CharlieWhitehurst said:

He will not get more than 4 TD'S this year. 

 

If he and Luck each play more than 12 games this season, he definitely will. 

 

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This is Reich's team, for better or for worse.  What might that mean for Ebron's and Doyle's fortunes?  I am happy to read about how Brisset isn't Luck, and vice versa, but the Colts acquired Ebron for a reason, and I suspect that reason has something to do with the particular offense that the new CS is planning to run.

 

All you folks have more clairvoyance and smarts than me, so I'm hoping you have some thoughts on what Reich has up his sleeve given his coaching history/tendencies to date and what he may have revealed publically since being hired.

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9 hours ago, Rolling Thunder said:

This is Reich's team, for better or for worse.  What might that mean for Ebron's and Doyle's fortunes?  I am happy to read about how Brisset isn't Luck, and vice versa, but the Colts acquired Ebron for a reason, and I suspect that reason has something to do with the particular offense that the new CS is planning to run.

 

All you folks have more clairvoyance and smarts than me, so I'm hoping you have some thoughts on what Reich has up his sleeve given his coaching history/tendencies to date and what he may have revealed publically since being hired.

 

The dream for Ebron fans is that Reich designates him the receiving TE -- like Gates in SD and Ertz in PHI, and not the blocking TE -- like Green/Henry in SD or Celek in PHI. 

 

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5 minutes ago, CyberneticGhostOfXMasPast said:

Expect plenty of 2 TE sets

 

1. The WRs suck

2. The OL sucks even more

 

2 TEs + 5 OL should give Luck at least a little time to play QB again - in theory

 

If they get Meredith, there are several WR corps worse than Hilton/Meredith/Grant.

 

 

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2 minutes ago, joshua18 said:

 

If they get Meredith, there are several WR corps worse than Hilton/Meredith/Grant.

 

 

 

There is nothing special or threatening whatsoever from any of them (aside from Hilton of course)

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32 minutes ago, joshua18 said:

 

The dream for Ebron fans is that Reich designates him the receiving TE -- like Gates in SD and Ertz in PHI, and not the blocking TE -- like Green/Henry in SD or Celek in PHI. 

 

 

Even with Ertz's heavy usage, Burton still got reasonable play in Philly   Maybe that had to do more with Pederson than Reich, but it is a small data point relative to what sort of offense may be going in this season in Indy.  

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This for me is one of the biggest question marks going into training camp. With Reich -- and the assumed return of Luck, it's a given that the offense will be light years ahead of the 2017 version. Obviously this means a nice rebound for Hilton, but every other position seems to be clear as mud. Ebron has the talent to be the #2 option in the passing game, which would easily make him a top-5 TE. But can he realistically beat out Chester Rogers, Doyle and Grant?

 

For dynasty leaguers with older TEs like Olsen, Jimmy Graham or Delanie Walker, is it too risky to trade for him? 

What's your over/under predictions? 750 yards and 8 TDs? 

 

 

 

Edited by AirForceOne

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500 yards, 3 TD's.  My jaw would hit the floor if he got 8 TD's.     There really isn't any reason to think Ebron moves past Doyle.  There's new coaches, but both Luck and Brissett know him, and produced with him.  Ebron's a new kid on the block, and one with a "failed to live up to expectations" tag.  He's not coming in like a Jimmy Graham would.  

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18 minutes ago, AirForceOne said:

 Ebron has the talent to be the #2 option in the passing game, which would easily make him a top-5 TE. But can he realistically beat out Chester Rogers, Doyle and Grant?

 

Well, he has the draft pedigree... but I'm not so sure the talent has been proven yet. Maybe it's the durability that hasn't been proven. Probably both.

 

19 minutes ago, AirForceOne said:

For dynasty leaguers with older TEs like Olsen, Jimmy Graham or Delanie Walker, is it too risky to trade for him? 

What's your over/under predictions? 750 yards and 8 TDs?

 

I'd sooner grab Jonnu Smith to back up Walker, and I'd keep Olsen and Graham. If you're thinking of trading for Ebron and giving up one of these solid veterans, you're not competing for the playoffs this season.

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18 hours ago, AirForceOne said:

This for me is one of the biggest question marks going into training camp. With Reich -- and the assumed return of Luck, it's a given that the offense will be light years ahead of the 2017 version. Obviously this means a nice rebound for Hilton, but every other position seems to be clear as mud. Ebron has the talent to be the #2 option in the passing game, which would easily make him a top-5 TE. But can he realistically beat out Chester Rogers, Doyle and Grant?

 

For dynasty leaguers with older TEs like Olsen, Jimmy Graham or Delanie Walker, is it too risky to trade for him? 

What's your over/under predictions? 750 yards and 8 TDs? 

 

 

 

Not really the right thread for this, but I would say that people are so low on him that you should be able to get him really cheap. If I could get him for a 3rd in a Dynasty, why not? I think 750 yards and 8 TDs is very optimistic. Maybe around 600 yards and 5-6 touchdowns would be more realistic. I would prefer trading for David Njoku over Ebron if I had the option and the price is right.

 

Edited by wonderbread

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https://www.indystar.com/story/sports/nfl/colts/2018/06/16/andrew-luck-frank-reich-colts-wrap-up-offseason-workouts/704683002/?utm_source=feedblitz&utm_medium=FeedBlitzRss&utm_campaign=indystar%2Fcolt

 

Quote

There have been numerous additions to a team that has turned over more than two-thirds of its players since January 2017. But tight end Eric Ebron is one newcomer who looks as though he could be particularly impactful.

 

As Reich said, they team is not in pads and offseason practices can, at times, be fool’s gold. But Ebron has been among the more impressive Colts this offseason, and Reich seems poised to fully tap into Ebron’s versatile skill set. Reich and offensive coordinator Nick Sirianni are going to put lots on Ebron’s plate, and they firmly believe the free-agent pickup can handle it.

 

“He’s really smart,” Reich said. “I knew that because we did our homework before he got here. We knew he was a smart player. But he’s like really a highly intelligent football player. And that’s really good because you want to use a guy with the versatility that he has and move him around and call all kinds of things with him. That helps. And he’s an explosive athlete.”

 

Ebron said he’s lined up just about everywhere except tailback during this offseason. He’s still working on persuading Reich to give him a snap or two in the backfield – it’s not happening, by the way – so he might have to settle for the outside receiver, slot receiver, traditional inline tight end and whatever else Reich can cook up.

 

There’s no question you’ll get a different assessment of Ebron if you speak to Detroit Lions fans, who gladly waved goodbye when he was cut earlier this spring. His dropped passes and sometimes questionable attitude are behind that.

 

But Ebron has a fresh start in Indy, and it’s up to him to make good on it. The Colts are fully prepared to give him that chance.

 

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