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Rex Burkhead 2018 Outlook

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5 minutes ago, Flyman75 said:

 

That's not really a big salary, though. James White is signed to a bigger deal, though with fewer guaranteed dollars. Burkhead is the 24th highest paid RB in the league on a per-year basis. 

 

 

Agreed, but it's a lot of money for a guy who was 3rd on the Bengals depth chart, and shows that Hoody thought he was a good pick up at that price.

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1 minute ago, Flyman75 said:

 

Btw, I appreciate the good and civil disagreement :). Seems rare these days on the RW forums that guys can disagree without it turning into a urinating match, lol. I guess we probably look at the stats differently. Bottom line is that we'll all find out soon enough, lol. 


Exactly :D That's why we play the game - you take the stats and draw the best conclusion you can using the info you have. The fact that people come to different conclusions is just par for the course. There are a lot of scenarios that could lead this to being a more traditional backfield using one or two backs, I typically just approach the New England situation with a lot of trepidation and assume that everyone will fill a niche role - which sounds bad but has traditionally been a great source of value, you just have to ride the waves of Bill's week-to-week decisions which is tricky at best. 

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Just now, Red Dog said:

 

Agreed, but it's a lot of money for a guy who was 3rd on the Bengals depth chart, and shows that Hoody thought he was a good pick up at that price.

 

That's a good point. 

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1 minute ago, DekuTree said:


Exactly :D That's why we play the game - you take the stats and draw the best conclusion you can using the info you have. The fact that people come to different conclusions is just par for the course. There are a lot of scenarios that could lead this to being a more traditional backfield using one or two backs, I typically just approach the New England situation with a lot of trepidation and assume that everyone will fill a niche role - which sounds bad but has traditionally been a great source of value, you just have to ride the waves of Bill's week-to-week decisions which is tricky at best. 

 

I generally approach the NE situation with trepidation, too. LOL. And I try to prepare for the unexpected, and literally nothing shocks me when it comes to BB and his RBs. Everyone will laugh, but I would not be shocked to see Hill with 250 touches this year (few receptions) and Burkhead with 150 touches. I wouldn't be shocked to see Michel average 15-18 touches once he's healthy. I wouldn't be shocked to see Hoodie give Burk 250 touches if he can handle it. It also wouldn't shock me to see Hill inactive 12/16 weeks while Burkhead, White, and Michel each get 100-125 touches. Lol. I think the numbers over the years show that BB prefers a backfield with 1-2 guys leading the way, but they also show that he's going to go with whatever works. 

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7 minutes ago, kdko said:

 

Like who?  He usually kicks the wheels on scrubs. 

 

come on guy, he hasn't only brought in scrubs, was Moss a scrub, woodhead, Hogan, galloway, lloyd, blount  scrubs when they were signed? No they were considered talented players who were either not being used properly on other teams or tainted in some manner  or viewed as post prime but their football talent was never a question.  those are just a few names i am sure there were many others. I''m sure there are even more on defense. Some worked out and others did not. Hoodie brings in the talent that he believes works with his system; that's why he is successful he finds the right talent that executes, he just doesnt get talent for the sake of talent. 

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18 minutes ago, Flyman75 said:

 

That's not really a big salary, though. James White is signed to a bigger deal, though with fewer guaranteed dollars. Burkhead is the 24th highest paid RB in the league on a per-year basis. 

 

what was he ranked the year he signed his contract?  Aslo 24th is not cheap for a rb when you have talented vets playing for min guarantee + heavy incentive deals.

Every year the contracts get bigger as revenues increase for the NFL.

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3 minutes ago, dashoe said:

 

come on guy, he hasn't only brought in scrubs, was Moss a scrub, woodhead, Hogan, galloway, lloyd, blount  scrubs when they were signed? No they were considered talented players who were either not being used properly on other teams or tainted in some manner  or viewed as post prime but their football talent was never a question.  those are just a few names i am sure there were many others. I''m sure there are even more on defense. Some worked out and others did not. Hoodie brings in the talent that he believes works with his system; that's why he is successful he finds the right talent that executes, he just doesnt get talent for the sake of talent. 

 

Now you're kind of changing what you're saying to 'he brings players who under performed yet shine in their system,' which I do agree with.  Your original narrative was that he brings in superior players that aren't part of the gameplan because they can't execute the system.  Chad Johnson is the only real example of that I can think of.  Moss was a stud and an immediate starter and focal point of that offense.  Blount, Woodhead, Lloyd and Hogan were not studs or superior talents.  3 of those 4 were undrafted.  They were journeyman and underperformers who were brought in, that became successful in their system.  Galloway came in off a bad injury iirc and never recovered from that.

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14 hours ago, Jetdog16 said:

What a preposterous post. Of course Belichick plays the superior player. That's literally what his career has been built upon. Casting aside overrated stars or players past their prime for guys on the roster who could perform their job better. And nobody considered James White the top talent in the Pats' backfield last year. That is totally absurd. 

 

2 hours ago, dashoe said:

 

 

Hoodie plays the guy who EXECUTES BEST in his schemes not the superior talent. He has brought in plenty of 'talented' or 'superior players but the ones who take the field every Sunday are the guys who execute and don't make mistakes; the guys who make his offense work.

 

38 minutes ago, kdko said:

 

Like who?  He usually kicks the wheels on scrubs. 

 

18 minutes ago, dashoe said:

 

come on guy, he hasn't only brought in scrubs, was Moss a scrub, woodhead, Hogan, galloway, lloyd, blount  scrubs when they were signed? No they were considered talented players who were either not being used properly on other teams or tainted in some manner  or viewed as post prime but their football talent was never a question.  those are just a few names i am sure there were many others. I''m sure there are even more on defense. Some worked out and others did not. Hoodie brings in the talent that he believes works with his system; that's why he is successful he finds the right talent that executes, he just doesnt get talent for the sake of talent. 

 

4 minutes ago, kdko said:

 

Now you're kind of changing what you're saying to 'he brings players who under performed yet shine in their system,' which I do agree with.  Your original narrative was that he brings in superior players that aren't part of the gameplan because they can't execute the system.  Chad Johnson is the only real example of that I can think of.  Moss was a stud and an immediate starter and focal point of that offense.  Blount, Woodhead, Lloyd and Hogan were not studs or superior talents.  3 of those 4 were undrafted.  They were journeyman and underperformers who were brought in, that became successful in their system.  Galloway came in off a bad injury iirc and never recovered from that.

 

 

no I think I am being pretty consistent in my messaging, I think you are steering things into a different direction because you ae focused on a 'scrubs' premise

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Just now, dashoe said:

 

no I think I am being pretty consistent in my messaging, I think you are steering things into a different direction because you ae focused on a 'scrubs' premise

 

Ummm, pretty sure you said this 

 

Just now, dashoe said:

He has brought in plenty of 'talented' or 'superior players but the ones who take the field every Sunday are the guys who execute and don't make mistakes; the guys who make his offense work.

 

 

So I ask again, how many talented or superior players did he bring in that didn't execute?  He turns leftovers into 5 star meals.  

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21 hours ago, reichl555 said:

Exactly.  If healthy he will be a PPR machine.  In fact I will make a prediction:  He will finish higher than CMAC in PPR leagues.

I like your optimism my man, CMC was getting like 6-8 targets in the passing game alone last season though from what I recall. That's Volume is tough to beat.

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28 minutes ago, dashoe said:

what was he ranked the year he signed his contract?  Aslo 24th is not cheap for a rb when you have talented vets playing for min guarantee + heavy incentive deals.

Every year the contracts get bigger as revenues increase for the NFL.

 

Well, if I looked at it correctly, it's a new contract..three year deal and he becomes a UFA in 2021. 

 

Also, I didn't say 24th was a cheap contract. I just said it isn't a big contract :). 

 

I didn't look at Hill's contract, but on an annual basis, White is making $4mil, Burk $3.25mil, and Michel something like $2.4mil. But Michel has the largest percentage of his dollars guaranteed (iirc...Michel 87%, Burk 56%, White 39%). I think when it comes to guaranteed dollars, Michel is higher annually than both White and Burk. 

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Looks like Michel is out, I think this could be the Burkhead show (and it might be the only time that Michel is not going to be there)

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Anyone worried about "easing" burkhead into action today? I can't see them running successful vs Houston so I can see a lot of passes from the backfield. I would hope it's burkhead receiving them and not White 

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Houston was second in the league last season in terms of passes allowed to running backs. James White played 50% of the snaps against Houston last year and had one catch for 11 yards. Lewis only had 3 catches for 12 yards and no one rushed successfully in that game. 

 

I'd probably sit my NE RBs. 

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4 minutes ago, ajs723 said:

Houston was second in the league last season in terms of passes allowed to running backs. James White played 50% of the snaps against Houston last year and had one catch for 11 yards. Lewis only had 3 catches for 12 yards and no one rushed successfully in that game. 

 

I'd probably sit my NE RBs. 

 

It's hard to run for any yards when the QB threw for nearly 400 yards and 5 TD passes. That was a September game and Burkhead was not playing and Lewis was still just getting his footing. They had a completely different rushing attack by mid-season.

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4 minutes ago, nonstopfan said:

 

It's hard to run for any yards when the QB threw for nearly 400 yards and 5 TD passes. That was a September game and Burkhead was not playing and Lewis was still just getting his footing. They had a completely different rushing attack by mid-season.

Fair. I still think Houston is probably the worst RB matchup in the league. 

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29 minutes ago, ajs723 said:

Fair. I still think Houston is probably the worst RB matchup in the league. 

 

If Burkhead couldn't catch balls I'd be more concerned. Hopefully the Pats figure out a way to get him in space without slamming him into that D-line

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1 minute ago, kball09 said:

 

If Burkhead couldn't catch balls I'd be more concerned. Hopefully the Pats figure out a way to get him in space without slamming him into that D-line

Only the Chiefs allowed fewer catches to running backs last season. Those linebackers are elite. Anything could happen, but if you have a better matchup, the sensible thing is probably to stay away from this backfield for week 1. 

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To be completely fair to Burkbutt, this was a typical performance of his last year.  Granted, he may have a few more catches and he would vulture a TD based off of all of Dion Lewis' hard work getting the ball down the field.....but, this is what Burkhead is.  Still, he runs harder than anyone out there and is floor-ceiling is 8-25. 

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Not sure what to think, but don't want to make any snap judgements without considering.

 

 

Edited by Robrain

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Jeremy Hill out for the year with a torn ACL.

 

Just have to fend off Sony and we are golden.

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Obviously his total yardage wasn't anything to write home about, but Burkhead owners have to be happy about his workload. 19 touches on a Pats offense will translate to way more points against a weaker defense. Also, I haven't gone back but I believe Burkhead had a red zone target and was open, but Brady just made a bad pass. I'm willing to bet that he's more involved in the passing game moving forward too, and Hill being out for the year will definitely help him out as far as goal line touches. Now the only thing to be worried about is how Michel looks when he's back from injury. If he doesn't pan out to much more than a chance of pace guy, Burkhead could be looking at a 300 touch season. 

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1 hour ago, Robrain said:

Not sure what to think, but don't want to make any snap judgements without considering.

 

 

Yeah, I watched most of this game and he didn't look all that great IMO. But with Hill out as long as he stays healthy, that ticks off one of my boxes for success. Although it will be interesting to see what happens when Michel gets back (I think he takes over if he's healthy and if he doesn't fumble a lot).

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