Bastardo!

Cooper Kupp 2018 Outlook

Recommended Posts

29 minutes ago, Bastardo! said:

Sammy Watkins is gone . . .

 

 

Watkins was never a factor in his role and production, Goff spreads the ball around, gurley and woods had more targets than Sammy.

So I wouldnt make the leap to think Kupp's targets improve dramatically with Watkins gone. josh Reynolds should benefit with more targets.

 Plus they are in the market for another big body deep ball wr with Terelle Pryor name coming up.

Edited by dashoe
  • Like 4

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
21 minutes ago, dashoe said:

 

 

Watkins was never a factor in his role and production, Goff spreads the ball around, gurley and woods had more targets than Sammy.

So I wouldnt make the leap to think Kupp's targets improve dramatically with Watkins gone. josh Reynolds should benefit with more targets.

 Plus they are in the market for another big body deep ball wr with Terelle Pryor name coming up.

 

Good points. 

 

I do expect he will be well over 100 targets next year, assuming he stays healthy, with an over/under of 8 touchdowns.  I would draft as a high-end WR2. 

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
30 minutes ago, Bastardo! said:

I do expect he will be well over 100 targets next year, assuming he stays healthy, with an over/under of 8 touchdowns.  I would draft as a high-end WR2. 

 

Kupp finished at #25 last season (just out of the WR2 conversation), in 1pt/reception, 6pts/TD and 1pt/10yds. To be considered a high-end WR2 he would need to finish in the top 18(?). I just don't see it. He is a pure procession receiver, who only topped 15pts 6x last season (with only one of those games NOT resulting in pts from a TD), and he actually dropped quite a few balls last year, especially for a guy said to have great hands (5 drops). He did improve on his catch rate from the 1st half (~55%) to a 66% by seasons end. He is also not a threat for the big play.

 

By comparison Robert Woods put up 15pts or more, 5x, in 3 less games; with none of those games being TD dependent. Woods was also only 6rec, and ~80yds behind Kupp, in 3 less games.

 

I'd peg Kupp more as a WR3 with upside, and a great WR4. Lot of mouths to feed in LA already next season, and as mentioned earlier, LA will probably bring in another WR.

 

*last season in my dynasty league, I drafted Kupp in our rookie draft, and I just wasn't impressed with his overall physical abilities when I watched him. So, I moved Kupp + some other pieces for Marvin Jones (11th ranked WR in PPR), and I'm happy about it.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Look at snap counts on Cooper Kupp over the course of last season. He started the year playing about 60% of the snaps each week, and finished the season as pretty much an every down player. He'll be an every down player this season. Those extra snaps will boost him up. I say top 20 WR in PPR. 

  • Like 1

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
1 hour ago, Bastardo! said:

 would draft as a high-end WR2. 

 

Agree with FollowtheLeader above: drafting Kupp as a WR2 is reasonable, but temper the "high-end" expectations.

 

I do like the kid and I'm lucky to have snatched him on my dynasty team in the fifth round. I saw some horrible drops last season, but overall he has the tenacity and talent to grow and do well as a pro. Being a third generation NFL player means something as well to me, as football is in his blood and this comes out on the field (the spirit, not the actual blood).

  • Like 1

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
6 hours ago, cohenstantinople said:

 

Agree with FollowtheLeader above: drafting Kupp as a WR2 is reasonable, but temper the "high-end" expectations.

 

I do like the kid and I'm lucky to have snatched him on my dynasty team in the fifth round. I saw some horrible drops last season, but overall he has the tenacity and talent to grow and do well as a pro. Being a third generation NFL player means something as well to me, as football is in his blood and this comes out on the field (the spirit, not the actual blood).

 

The drops won't continue imo.

  • Like 1

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
23 minutes ago, 96mnc said:

 

The drops won't continue imo.

 

The drops stat needs context.  The cohort of NFL receivers with 5 or more drops and a lower catch % than Kupp (his was 66%) includes Michael Crabtree, Dez Bryant, Paul Richardson, Michael Crabtree, Davante Adams, Adam Thielen.

 

Now in fairness, a number of those players had more targets, so basically, of their incompletions, fewer were drops.  Not to be sarcastic, but as we're playing fantasy, the aesthetics of Kupp's incompletions probably aren't as important as the total number of incompletions he has?

 

Combined with the sample size of one year, being a rookie year, and his college track record, I don't see why we should assume the 5 drops are a trend until it becomes a trend.

Edited by rschroeder1
  • Like 1

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Is Kupp's upside peak Wes Welker?  I am inclined to say "no."  Welker in his prime was quicker and faster than Kupp is.  But Kupp might get onto the same city block if everything breaks his way.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
5 minutes ago, SharkSwimmer said:

Is Kupp's upside peak Wes Welker?  I am inclined to say "no."  Welker in his prime was quicker and faster than Kupp is.  But Kupp might get onto the same city block if everything breaks his way.

 

I'd say Marques Colston.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
41 minutes ago, CharlieWhitehurst said:

 He could be WR1 on a high-scoring team going forward. 

 

So could I, but the odds are seriously against both of us becoming a WR1.

 

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
3 minutes ago, cohenstantinople said:

 

So could I, but the odds are seriously against both of us becoming a WR1.

 

My wording could be taken out of context. I mean WR1 IRL on the Rams. Not a WR1 in fantasy aspect. 

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
5 minutes ago, CharlieWhitehurst said:

My wording could be taken out of context. I mean WR1 IRL on the Rams. Not a WR1 in fantasy aspect. 

 

“He could be WR1 on a high-scoring team going forward.“

 

I’d suggest a solid WR2 or handy slot receiver, an integral part of a competent offensive machine, producing solid numbers, but only rarely hitting WR1 numbers, and although I think he’s talented I don’t see him carrying a team as a WR1. My two cents. NFL ain’t Eastern Washington. But I am a Kupp fan. (Kupphead?)

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Rams face a lot of good secondaries this year but Kupp could benefit from that if Woods takes the attention away.  Expect a regression from the offense in general with the QB coach and Watkins both gone.  Or was Lafleur OC?

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
3 minutes ago, Lord_Varys said:

Rams face a lot of good secondaries this year but Kupp could benefit from that if Woods takes the attention away.  Expect a regression from the offense in general with the QB coach and Watkins both gone.  Or was Lafleur OC?

 

In name only.   Head coach called the plays. 

 

Reynolds can do the role Sammy was asked to do.   Sammy only got 70 targets and was primarily a clear out weapon. 

 

In the slot primarily, which is where I see Kupp, I think he's going to be really good.   He had 95 targets in 15 games (sat out week 16).  Not committing to a target projection right now but 110 is not crazy and I expect his catch rate to go up. 

  • Like 1

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
2 minutes ago, Lord_Varys said:

Rams face a lot of good secondaries this year but Kupp could benefit from that if Woods takes the attention away.  Expect a regression from the offense in general with the QB coach and Watkins both gone.  Or was Lafleur OC?

I think the offense should be fine. McVay is the defacto OC. As for Kupp, I have him as my WR3 and I'm loving him in that spot. A WR1? A little bit of a stretch I think, but his upside is a high end WR2 IMO. 

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
39 minutes ago, sasnumberonefan said:

I think the offense should be fine. McVay is the defacto OC. As for Kupp, I have him as my WR3 and I'm loving him in that spot. A WR1? A little bit of a stretch I think, but his upside is a high end WR2 IMO. 

Yes fantasy wise I would love him as a FLEX right now but could move up to WR2 for sure. For dynasty purposes I think his value is very, very high. 

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Cooper Kupp has a reasonable price in the late 6th round for a WR3.

 

My biggest problem with Kupp is Goff, I’m not 100% sold on him.

 

I’ll probably take a RB/TE/QB in the 6th, and wait a round to take Agholor or Fuller at WR#3.

 

I like those QB’s better...

 

Kupp is safer than both... but it’s a value thing, for a guy I won’t be starting every week anyways.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
1 hour ago, seanismorris said:

Cooper Kupp has a reasonable price in the late 6th round for a WR3.

 

My biggest problem with Kupp is Goff, I’m not 100% sold on him.

 

I’ll probably take a RB/TE/QB in the 6th, and wait a round to take Agholor or Fuller at WR#3.

 

I like those QB’s better...

 

Kupp is safer than both... but it’s a value thing, for a guy I won’t be starting every week anyways.

 

There's no reason at all not to be sold on Goff.  Why aren't you? 

 

If Kupp really a 6th round adp right now? 

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
4 hours ago, 96mnc said:

 

I'd say Marques Colston.

Totally different type of players.  Colston is huge, and in his prime was one of the most dangerous red zone presences in the entire league.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
2 hours ago, 96mnc said:

 

There's no reason at all not to be sold on Goff.  Why aren't you? 

 

If Kupp really a 6th round adp right now? 

It’s not so much Kupp is bad (he actually has a bright future) but there are better values.

 

Everyone is raving about Goff, and he does deserve credit for being greatly improved, but he’s still a middle of the pack QB.  I think the Rams will lean on Gurley as much as possible, and that limited the upside of Kupp.

 

I’m high on Gurley and the Rams D, so the passing attack can be conservative and still win.  Kupp’s targets for 2017 also got a bump with Woods missing 3 games.

 

Fuller (for example) has a better QB, is cheaper, and has a D that gives up ton of points.  The reason Fuller is cheap is because of injury concerns, but he’s high upside on the field.  Since we’re only taking about a WR3, I’d only start him if he’s healthy...

 

Here’s QBR

http://www.espn.com/nfl/qbr

 

Goff currently ranks as JAG.  He could continue to improve in his 3rd year, but I’m not that confident for fantasy. (#13 in 2017)

 

I expect D’s to come better prepared in 2018.

Edited by seanismorris

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
1 hour ago, seanismorris said:

It’s not so much Kupp is bad (he actually has a bright future) but there are better values.

 

Everyone is raving about Goff, and he does deserve credit for being greatly improved, but he’s still a middle of the pack QB.  I think the Rams will lean on Gurley as much as possible, and that limited the upside of Kupp.

 

I’m high on Gurley and the Rams D, so the passing attack can be conservative and still win.  Kupp’s targets for 2017 also got a bump with Woods missing 3 games.

 

Fuller (for example) has a better QB, is cheaper, and has a D that gives up ton of points.  The reason Fuller is cheap is because of injury concerns, but he’s high upside on the field.  Since we’re only taking about a WR3, I’d only start him if he’s healthy...

 

Here’s QBR

http://www.espn.com/nfl/qbr

 

Goff currently ranks as JAG.  He could continue to improve in his 3rd year, but I’m not that confident for fantasy. (#13 in 2017)

 

I expect D’s to come better prepared in 2018.

 

I like your thinking here and agree Fuller is higher upside (more risk) and probably will stay the better value.  

 

 

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Kupp's game is actually a bit similar to Jarvis Landry's, although he is not quite there yet.  Good route runner, good hands, good in the red zone, tough competitor, lacks top end speed to break those really big plays. 

 

For 2018, I would say Kupp is a high upside WR3, and better than that in ppr.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Join the conversation

You can post now and register later. If you have an account, sign in now to post with your account.

Guest
Reply to this topic...

×   Pasted as rich text.   Paste as plain text instead

  Only 75 emoji are allowed.

×   Your link has been automatically embedded.   Display as a link instead

×   Your previous content has been restored.   Clear editor

×   You cannot paste images directly. Upload or insert images from URL.

Loading...

  • Recently Browsing   0 members

    No registered users viewing this page.