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Brian Anderson 2018 Outlook

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He has been announced as the Marlins starting 3B to start the season (Prado's hurt). He crushed AAA last year and I've read that he could offer some more power (right now, I think he has about 20 HR potential). 

 

What do people think?

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NL-only flier at best until he shows something, especially given the bad team context.  No speed, bad ballpark, didn't hit a single homer in 100 PA last year.  Hasn't hit more than 14 at any level.  Too many other options at 3B to be digging this deep in mixed leagues, IMHO.

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On 3/15/2018 at 4:31 PM, tonycpsu said:

NL-only flier at best until he shows something, especially given the bad team context.  No speed, bad ballpark, didn't hit a single homer in 100 PA last year.  Hasn't hit more than 14 at any level.  Too many other options at 3B to be digging this deep in mixed leagues, IMHO.

 

Well, that's a little misleading. He hit 14 HR in 311 AB in AA last year (projects to 25 in 550 AB), but hit 22 for the season in 429 MiLB ABs. I'm not saying he's going to hit 25 for the Marlins this year, but he's at least worth keeping an eye on. Sometimes with injuries, you have to dig deep...two days in, and I already have 6 guys on the DL. 

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1 hour ago, Flyman75 said:

but he's at least worth keeping an eye on.

 

I don't think that's incompatible with my statement that he's NL-only flier until he shows something.  Hitting 25 at the major league level (or showing the ability to do so) would certainly be showing something.

 

Your point about hitting 22 across multiple MiLB levels last year is duly noted.  Dude's obviously going to get playing time on a team full of nobodies, so yeah, he could work his way into mixed league relevance. I just haven't seen anything in his profile to suggest a speculative pickup.  Keeping an eye on him is obviously a lower bar to clear.

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Pretty nice start to the year. 1st homer today and has looked good at the plate. 

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12 minutes ago, mavsfan23 said:

Pretty nice start to the year. 1st homer today and has looked good at the plate. 

 

People better not sleep on this kid. They've got him batting clean up for a reason.. yeah it's a terrible team.. but, he's an under the radar guy that could turn out to pay big dividends down the road. He's got more power than he showed in the minors. High ceiling pickup from the WW, if he's available in your dynasty league for some reason, better grab him while ya can. 

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He’s got the type of swing/approach that will keep him from having frequent slumps, even as a rookie. I see him putting up real solid numbers this season: something like .270/65/25/75 with a decent K/BB rate.

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2 hours ago, The Big Bat Theory said:

Unfortunately Prado will be off the DL sometime and cut into this kid's ABs.

 

Is there anywhere else he might play in that situation?

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No telling what will happen, but I doubt a rebuilding team sends him to the bench so they can get Prado at bats. Crazier things have happened, but if he hits I'd guess he stays at third and Prado gets AB's in a utility role. 

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Agree with the above.  This kid has been earning the shot at regular playing time.  Sitting him for Prado, on a re-building team, seems pointless.  It is the Marlins, so you never know, but it would be a really poor decision, imo.  Prado could be placed on waivers and if another team picks him up, I think that would suit the cost-conscious Marlins just fine if they do.

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Posted (edited)

Echo Mavsfan and BigPapi.. This guy is their future at 3B (if hes consistent) Although, the Marlins are definitely the one team that would go against the grain and do something completely ridiculous. BTW, he had a 2 out hit against Sale, and ended up being driven in by Justin Bour. 

 

*Just from a talent perspective, he's not exactly a "nobody" he was a fangraphs top 100 prospect before the year. 

Edited by JenksDodger
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He seems set in the #4 spot in the lineup.  I don't see how he loses at bats to Prado with the way he's been hitting.  Pick him up and get on board!

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Any more thoughts on him and his upside this year now that he's played a few more games?

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More walks than K's and his plate discipline numbers look amazing as well. Not swinging out of the zone, making contact when it's in the zone, low swinging strike%. His babip is a little high but I think we all expected a .275-.280ish hitter anyway. 

 

I think WARrate's projection above is reasonable, .270/65/25/75, with room for more in the avg/counting stats if he stays hitting cleanup 

 

 

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Posted (edited)

Wish I had some shares somewhere. His plate discipline is nuts. 20.5% O-swing, 68.2% z swing, 8.1% swstr.

 

Considering this you would think he would make more hard contact (and maybe he will as the year goes on he's still a rookie)

 

His profile reminds me a lot of Rhys Hoskins when it comes to the discipline numbers except Hoskins hits a ton of flyballs and Anderson hits a ton of grounders. Hoskins also hits the ball harder too. If he bought into the flyball revolution - look out.

Edited by Dirtywater97

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Hoskins is more apt to taking strikes in the zone than Anderson. Anderson for a rookie is showing an elite eye. His BABIP will normalize to around .300, but his OBP will be in the .400s

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23 minutes ago, WARrate said:

Hoskins is more apt to taking strikes in the zone than Anderson. Anderson for a rookie is showing an elite eye. His BABIP will normalize to around .300, but his OBP will be in the .400s

.400 OBP isn't likely. That would put him in Joey Votto/Rendon/Freeman etc level and I doubt he's that elite

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His OBP has remained high, but not much power.   Tonight's performance aside, is he WW fodder at this point or are any of you holding in non-OBP leagues?

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Posted (edited)

The only thing holding him back is lack of power.  Considering the number of ABs he's had, just not showing it and not sure why. 3 Hrs in 225 ABs is putrid, especially for a 3Bman.  And dating back to last year, 3 Hrs in over 300 ABs.

Edited by BigPapi44

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He’s got a healthy amount of doubles, so hopefully they’re a precursor to the HR’s. If he had 8 HR right now he’d have a very nice line for what he cost. 

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Honestly, what he has been doing is pretty impressive for a rookie. Only his 4th homer, but he also has 18 doubles and two triples after tonight. This raises his OPS to .831 and he has a .310 average and good counting stats considering he's playing for the dumpster fire that is the Marlins.

 

Just a little comparison for reference.

 

Travis Shaw .248/.341/.500/.841 37R, 39 RBI, 15 2B, 14 HR (29 XBH)

Brian Anderson .310/.383/.448/.831 36R, 32 RBI, 18 2B, 2 3B, 4 HR(24 XBH)

 

Granted, Shaw has way more power and a much better park to sustain his rates in ROS, but Anderson has been an incredible value so far for the people lucky/smart enough to scoop him off the wire or draft him.

 

Go get him if you can!

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