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Mr2Saint

Corey Davis 2018 Outlook

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Drafted #5 in 2017

Struggled with injuries all pre-season and regular season. Could never get on the same page with Mariotta.

Really came on towards the end of the season/playoffs. Looked really strong in the divisional game vs. the Pats.

New HC. New OC.

 

What is to be expected of Davis in year 2?

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12 minutes ago, Mr2Saint said:

 

What is to be expected of Davis in year 2?

 

Can’t be worse than 2017, 34 receptions in 11 games for 375 yards and zero TDs.

 

I’m not as optimistic as mmcc1029, but I expect his talent to emerge more regularly. Don’t know where or how to draft him yet, or if I should target Davis or not, but I’m glad he’s on my dynasty roster for the long run.

 

In a league where I’m allowed two keepers after round 6, today I’m leaning against keeping Davis in Round 7.

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I'm high on Davis as a breakout guy- really overall i'm high on Titans.  Not going to make them all top priorities for me, but I plan on getting Davis somewhere and hoping he returns good value.   Might even try to pair him with Mariota and surge further if i'm right.

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Titans offense was too slow and Walker was too much of the passing game focus if that doesnt change I avoid Davis. 

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3 minutes ago, dashoe said:

Titans offense was too slow and Walker was too much of the passing game focus if that doesnt change I avoid Davis. 

 

Speed is the key, absolutely.  They ran so few plays last year, that is the change I'm hoping for if I do land Davis or Mariota.   There's no way really to know how much that'll change.   It takes a leap of faith of sorts to buy in here, no doubt.   Davis clearly has talent, and Mariota has had at least one succesful season so we know he's at least able to put up points if the circumstances allow it.  

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5 hours ago, BrianM said:

 really overall i'm high on Titans. 

 

Were you also high on the Titans last year?

 

It is a rare occurrence, a perfect storm of sorts, where an entire football team fails to produce at least one viable fantasy player (including defense here). The 2017 Titans were that perfect storm of fantasy flop.

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Meh not touching this dude just off sheer annoyance of the Titans and the fact that I got sucked into starting him a few times like the shmuck that I am.. Titans are not producing any studs period that being said you may find good value with some of their players in the draft I would imagine but if you're drafting based on potential as well I don't think you can pinpoint anyone and say this guy has a chance to blow up easy pass for me.

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7 minutes ago, cohenstantinople said:

 

Were you also high on the Titans last year?

 

It is a rare occurrence, a perfect storm of sorts, where an entire football team fails to produce at least one viable fantasy player (including defense here). The 2017 Titans were that perfect storm of fantasy flop.

I was not, tbh.  I usually get Delanie Walker somewhere, last year it didn't happen.   Only guy i drafted was Davis in my auction, he ended up cheaper than i expected.  Obviously that didn't pay off but it wasn't damaging either.

 

I dont think they're going to suddenly turn into the Saints or anything, but if I see Titans getting ADP's based solely on last year, I'm likely buying shares in Walker, Mariota, and Davis a bit.  

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The Titans are basically a team full of Jermichael Finleys/This-is-the-year! types.

 

I am going to be so happy not getting involved with this sh*t show this year.

 

And yes, I have major recentcy bruised-balls.

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12 minutes ago, cohenstantinople said:

 

Were you also high on the Titans last year?

 

It is a rare occurrence, a perfect storm of sorts, where an entire football team fails to produce at least one viable fantasy player (including defense here). The 2017 Titans were that perfect storm of fantasy flop.

Yeah, reminds me of the Rams of 2016. I have little hope that they will have the same turn around the Rams had the following year. The Titans just seems like one of those bad organizations that just can't seem to get it together.

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1 minute ago, BrianM said:

I was not, tbh.  I usually get Delanie Walker somewhere, last year it didn't happen.   Only guy i drafted was Davis in my auction, he ended up cheaper than i expected.  Obviously that didn't pay off but it wasn't damaging either.

 

I dont think they're going to suddenly turn into the Saints or anything, but if I see Titans getting ADP's based solely on last year, I'm likely buying shares in Walker, Mariota, and Davis a bit.  

 

Interesting that the best Titan to own this year, at least in PPR, might end up being Dion Lewis.

 

Walker has slowed down a bit, but it's difficult to determine if last year's bust was Walker's age, Mariota's game-play, or both. Probably both. I have Jonnu Smith---and Davis, and DHenry---stashed on a dynasty roster, but I don't know if they'll see the light of day this coming season and become weekly producers. That said, I imagine some Titans would make excellent best-ball candidates.

 

1 minute ago, wonderbread said:

Yeah, reminds me of the Rams of 2016. I have little hope that they will have the same turn around the Rams had the following year.

 

I wish...

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I think Walker will be his usual self.   Top 10 TE, for at least one more season.     On the RB's, I have no idea where I'll rank em, to be honest.   I

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I have him as a 7th round keeper, i think we haven’t seen his potential just yet due to the injury in the offseason and then again in the middle of the season. Matthews took a step back as a focus in the offense towards the end of the season and with decker gone, i expect a boost in targets. Yes Delanie Walker is still there but i think there’s enough targets for Davis to have an impact. Right now i have him as an upside WR3. I think there will be multi TD weeks for him, he has a nose for the end zone. 

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I take big swings at players in this type of situation often.    Top end talent, low price, and reason to anticipate a volume increase.    Davis is still going at WR4 prices in some cases I'm guessing, so at least once, he'll be mine.     It reminds me of two players who recently were high picks who i grabbed in year two for low costs-  DeVante Parker and DeAndre Hopkins.    Obviously one broke out, the other didnt.     

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I preface all of this by saying that I'm a big Titans fan, but I try to be as objective as possible when it comes to fantasy and the upside (or lack-thereof) of Titans players in fantasy.

 

Was listening to the Locked On Titans podcast the other day when they interview Mike Keith (play by play for Titans Radio). He talked about how the Patriots playoff game where Davis had 5 for 63 and 2 TDs really served as a spring board for the offseason for Davis. Said that the momentum from that breakout has carried into Spring camp and that he is finally 100% healthy.

 

People can understandably be down on the Titans based on last year, but it's an entirely new staff and offense in town. LaFleur is an innovative offensive mind where as the Mularkey/Robiskie combination was as predictable as it gets. I would expect the play calling to be much improved which should lead to LaFleur scheming Davis open. He also spoke to the rapport that Mariota and LaFleur are building which should help the offense as a whole. Additionally, the Titans did nothing in the draft or free agency to address the WR position. 

 

I am expecting the Titans to be much different this year. Davis is a WR3 to me with upside for more. In keepers and dynasties, I would be buying low if possible. I have no clue what his ADP is in redraft but I'm sure you could pick him up as your 4th WR without spending too much draft capital. 

 

Projection:

80 catches

900 yards

6-8 touchdowns

 

That projection is pretty close to what JuJu did last year which made him a WR2. 

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if the titans passing attack reverts back to the Delanie Walker show + sneaky Rishard compounded with the slowest clock killing offense in the NFL I will be very frustrated.

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Like every other team, the players themselves mean less than how the team has changed.

 

The old head coach and OC are gone because they didn't like moving the football and scoring points.  They made the playoffs, but still left.  So the core of the team is fantastic.

 

Mike Vrabel has his first HC job.  Very successful linebacker; Texans DC last year.  Offensive guy calling the shots will be Matt Lafleur.  He was OC for the Rams last year, took the lateral move as OC because this job comes with calling the plays.  Previous role was QB coach in Atlanta and Kyle Shanahan.....highest scoring offense in the NFL.  Coaches leave, offense goes to crap.  That's how it works.

 

So, the 2018 Titans offense will be similar to the 2017 Rams and 2016 Falcons.  Vrabel spent most of his career with NE, so he'll want points on the scoreboard.

 

Davis is definitely an upgrade on from Robert Woods last year.  He is also on par with Watkins as a red zone target.  Mariota is better than Goff.  Running game is comparable.  Offensive line is fantastic.  Their defensive coordinator retired from Baltimore, then moved to TEN when they opened a position for his son.  Defense will be better this year from coaching.

 

Offense should have ~15 rushing and ~25 passing TDs this year.  Davis was hurt last year, and Decker is gone.  If he can step up, he is a great red zone target and should get 6-8 TDs.  Yards will depend on Matthews. 

 

Conservatively, 800-1200 yards and 6-8 TDs.  Should be a solid WR2/3.

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Let's see, Matt LaFleur was the Falcons QB coach in 2016 when Matt Ryan won the MVP, and was the Rams OC last year when the Rams led the NFL in points per game.
As was mentioned, the Mularkey/Robiskie combo was terrible, think of them as Jeff Fisher before McVay/LaFleur.
The point is when a shift this big happens, you should evaluate based on talent, not on the previous season's numbers (see Gurley, Todd)
I personally don't know how to watch a game and evaluate talent, but everyone seems to think Davis has oodles of it, so I'll defer to their opinion and I won't let the 2017 numbers deter me.
Putting my money where my mouth is, in my dyansty league a guy wanted Rodgers from me and was offering Davis +. I eventually came to the conclusion that Davis and Rodgers are pretty even in dynasty, and took the extra Jared Goff and late 1st round pick and made the deal.

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Here are the current 6th round FFC PPR ADP WRs listed in order:

 

Devin Funchess 

Corey Davis 

Pierre Garcon

Chris Hogan 

Marvin Jones

 

I'll definitely be trying to get a hold of both David and Garcon in my leagues. 

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On 5/5/2018 at 1:27 AM, Dreams And Dwightmares said:

Here are the current 6th round FFC PPR ADP WRs listed in order:

 

Devin Funchess 

Corey Davis 

Pierre Garcon

Chris Hogan 

Marvin Jones

 

I'll definitely be trying to get a hold of both David and Garcon in my leagues. 

 

Garcon is starting to heat up for me as well.  SF threw a ton last year, and hasn't exactly made me think they'll change that.   Garcon's sneakily looking like a guy that'll see top 10 targets.  

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On 5/5/2018 at 1:27 AM, Dreams And Dwightmares said:

Here are the current 6th round FFC PPR ADP WRs listed in order:

 

Devin Funchess 

Corey Davis 

Pierre Garcon

Chris Hogan 

Marvin Jones

 

I'll definitely be trying to get a hold of both David and Garcon in my leagues. 

 

I can't wait to wait on WRs so hard this year.  I'd love any of those guys at WR3, would be comfortable with them as WR2 even.

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