• Announcements

    • Patrick Bateman

      Check out the new Rotoworld Beta Site!   11/14/2018

      Rotoworld has been the industry leader in fantasy news and analysis for years, but it was time for a much-needed facelift!  While our around-the-clock, comprehensive coverage will remain the same, the new Rotoworld design will be sleeker, easier to navigate, more video-friendly and will finally be mobile-optimized.    That’s right, you can finally stop pinching the screens on your phones to read our content!  Right now we’re in the beta phase of our launch, and it’s still a work-in-progress, but we’d love for you to check out our soon-to-be new digs, and let us know what you think: https://beta.rotoworld.com.    And then please use the Contact Us button to give us feedback!  
Rolling Thunder

2018 WR Rankings and Discussion

Recommended Posts

Early in the off-season, it can be helpful to have a thread that can serve as a depository for random thoughts on a particular position, at least until we transition into using individual player threads more.  Also, the team outlook threads are often devoted (properly so) to topics like draft strategy, the wisdom (or lack thereof) of trades, and the like.  

 

As I begin to form my initial WR rankings, I'm curious to hear who folks believe may be under or over valued as top tier WRs, and the reasons supporting those beliefs.  The consensus seems to be that drafting RBs early will be popular, so I'm interested in whether folks believe that there are top WRs that are likely to return superior value because their worth is being surpressed by recency bias in any of its various forms.  

 

I will kick off the discussion with a general observation that 96mnc made recently in another thread:

 

The key is finding those guys that due to situation (lack of other weapons, bad D, pass heavy coach, coach that funnels targets to a particular receiver spot) can project to 160+ targets.  

 

It is not my intent to limit this thread just to WRs that posters believe will reach the rarified air of 160+ targets, but the reasoning offered for what typically dictates a WR's fantasy fortunes is sound.  I would think that "situation" will have a lot to do with why folks identify particular top WRs as potentially good or bad values. 

 

In terms of top WRs who may end up somewhat undervalued, I have AJG and Evans on my list.  D. Thomas may be in store for more of a bounce back than he'll be given credit for.

 

I feel as if OBJ will be overvalued.  

 

I feel as if Nuke and M. Thomas will be worth whatever folks pay for them.

 

Those are just my first thoughts.  I have others.

 

 

  • Like 1

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

I like Evans to improve a bit.    Even at his worst, he's been pretty productive.  In my keeper, he'll be available and i'm hoping he slides down in round one so I can grab him there late.   He'll be one of maybe two or three WR1's not kept.   

 

I'm not scared of Julio at all even without the TD's.   He still puts up amazing catch and yardage totals.  Still top 5  (Brown, Hopkins, OBJ, Keenan/Julio tied)

 

I'm not scared of OBJ.   I'll still rank him third behind Brown and Hopkins.   I've had good luck with players that other teams avoided for off the field stuff.   

 

I'm ready to jump Davante Adams to the top tier.  He was 13th in PPR last year with what, half of Aaron Rodgers?   Now, without Jordy, he's an alpha for sure.  Jimmy Graham certainly is going to get TD's, but I think Adams can get enough, and can be one of the top yardage guys.    

 

 

 

  • Like 1

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
50 minutes ago, Rolling Thunder said:

In terms of top WRs who may end up somewhat undervalued, I have AJG and Evans on my list.  D. Thomas may be in store for more of a bounce back than he'll be given credit for.

 

I feel as if OBJ will be overvalued.  

 

I feel as if Nuke and M. Thomas will be worth whatever folks pay for them.

 

Those are just my first thoughts.  I have others.

 

I agree that AJG and Evans will be undervalued, though only slightly: I suspect they'll be pushed to the late late 1st and into the second round because of the elevation of other players and either (or both) could return WR1 numbers.

 

I'd add Keenen Allen to your Nuke and MThomas list, as his play was monstrous last season, finally healthy.

 

Good chance OBJ will be suspended, if not for the pepperoni cocaine incident of last week, for the upcoming incident, whatever that is. I somehow got Zeke in Round 3 last year, made to the championship (where Zeke returned), and feel like it was a great gamble that paid off. I'd go OBJ in the third even with a six-game suspension pending. Of course, this is all speculation at the most imaginative level at this point.

 

7 minutes ago, BrianM said:

I'm ready to jump Davante Adams to the top tier.  He was 13th in PPR last year with what, half of Aaron Rodgers?   Now, without Jordy, he's an alpha for sure.  Jimmy Graham certainly is going to get TD's, but I think Adams can get enough, and can be one of the top yardage guys.   

 

If Jordan Matthews signs with Green Bay, I see Rodgers with sufficient targets that will cut heavily into Adams' production. I don't see Adams as the next Jordy regarding output. I can see Cobb improving significantly, and along with Graham and TyMont back at receiver (in name or in role), I see Adams' production as being unpredictable as Rodgers enjoys spreading the ball around. I could be off on Adams, but I do not think he has the talent to rank him in the top tier of WRs.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
Just now, cohenstantinople said:

 

 

 

 

If Jordan Matthews signs with Green Bay, I see Rodgers with sufficient targets that will cut heavily into Adams' production. I don't see Adams as the next Jordy regarding output. I can see Cobb improving significantly, and along with Graham and TyMont back at receiver (in name or in role), I see Adams' production as being unpredictable as Rodgers enjoys spreading the ball around. I could be off on Adams, but I do not think he has the talent to rank him in the top tier of WRs.

 

I'm not sure how Matthews would fit TBH,  You'd think he'd be redundant considering Cobb.      Adams for me is firmly in the second tier with a couple guys i'll blurb

 

AJ Green-  seems to be a perennial top 10 guy, but never cracks top 5 much.   Drafting him with that same expectation.   I see him with a lower ceiling than Adams, similar floors.   

 

Mike Thomas-  off the charts talent, loved watching him play.   Qualms are that they're so balanced now- which you cant argue given their success.  But Thomas is the third banana in NO behind Ingram and Kamara.    Most of the guys we're looking at drafting above Thomas are the central figure for their teams (outside of QB of course).  Adams won't quite be that kind of player, as GB has other talent to share that load, but he's clearly the favorite for target share, with a HOF prime QB, and no more co-WR1 sharing with him.    

 

Ultimately if given three shots at a WR with these three available, i probably take all three once each, though maybe I boldly take Adams twice and Thomas once.   Its likely a "you can't go wrong" scenario

  • Like 1

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
11 minutes ago, lolcopter said:

Nuke?

 

8 minutes ago, BrianM said:

Gotta nuke somethin'

 

Take away receptions, yards, and touchdowns---and work ethic---and DeAndre Hopkins is garbage and has absolutely nothing to offer your fantasy team.

 

deandre-hopkins.gif?w=500&h=308

giphy.gif

dehop22.gif

20141203_Fahey_07.gif

 

 

  • Like 1

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

His nickname is Nuk you doofuses, I’ll chalk that one up to autocorrect

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
1 hour ago, lolcopter said:

His nickname is Nuk you doofuses, I’ll chalk that one up to autocorrect

 

I "autocorrected" first, so that's all on me.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
Posted (edited)
2 hours ago, BrianM said:

Still top 5  (Brown, Hopkins, OBJ, Keenan/Julio tied)

 

M. Thomas has to be #6, right?

 

Not holding you to it (between now and August lots will change), but how would you round out your top 10?  Baldwin?  Adams? TY? ARob?  Cooper?  D. Thomas?

 

How do you read Woods, Garcon, Gordon and Crabtree?  Maybe Shuster too?

 

Edited by Rolling Thunder

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
20 minutes ago, Rolling Thunder said:

 

M. Thomas has to be #6, right?

 

Not holding you to it (between now and August lots will change), but how would you round out your top 10?  Baldwin?  Adams? TY? ARob?  Cooper?  D. Thomas?

 

How do you read Woods, Garcon, Gordon and Crabtree?  Maybe Shuster too?

 

I dont have things written in but Thomas is 6 or 7.  I like Adams that much, i might 6 him.   Green is 8th i'm sure.    After that?  Dunno, blurbing some possibles

 

Baldwin- favorite of mine, been drafting him and Russ a ton lately.  But i think i'm fading them this year, so probably not.   Still he'll be top 15 at least.

Hilton-  if we're sure Luck's 100%, yep, Hilton likely top 10's.  Same thing as always though- big games coupled with duds.   

Fitzgerald-  I get him every year in a league, and he always pays off.    

Thielen-  Another favorite- was on my one league champ last year

 

Of that second group:

Juju-  Big fan.   Will aim for him next year and i'm willing to pay WR2 cost for him.    

Gordon-  It'll maybe be fun to grab him one time, but i'm not willing to pay top 20 WR cost to do it, and I assume there's one guy in my league that will do just that, so, probably not happening

Garcon- haven't thought a lick about him-  WR3 I guess.   Certainly has potential for more

Woods-  WR3, i dont see him scoring many TD's.    Its Gurley's show, he gets his share but i dont think Woods is a guy i need to target

Crabtree-   Whatever Mike Wallace just did, he'll do the same, maybe a little better at most.  WR3 in that mix. 

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
4 hours ago, BrianM said:

Fitzgerald-  I get him every year in a league, and he always pays off.    

 

I haven't mentioned Fitz because he probably doesn't qualify as a "top WR" in most folks'  books, but he could be a screaming value this season.  Everyone has already kicked Bradford under the bus, but if Bradford can pull a Keenan and actually play all or most of the season, Fitz might have his best year in quite awhile.

 

I am still all in on AJG.  The Dalton/AJG lovefest is one of the few true ones left (Big Ben/AB and Ryan/Julio probably still qualify).  We no longer have Cutler/Jeffrey, Rodgers/Nelson or Tannehill/Landry to depend on.   Maybe Watson/Hopkins will emerge, but right now, no one has stronger chemistry than Dalton and AJG.  As long as Dalton is breathing, he'll force things AJG's way come hell or high water.  If the O-line improves in Cincy and Mixon comes on, Dalton will rebound considerably.  That rebound, if it happens, will lift AJG to the front of WR pack IMO.    

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
15 minutes ago, Rolling Thunder said:

 

I haven't mentioned Fitz because he probably doesn't qualify as a "top WR" in most folks'  books, but he could be a screaming value this season.  Everyone has already kicked Bradford under the bus, but if Bradford can pull a Keenan and actually play all or most of the season, Fitz might have his best year in quite awhile.

 

I am still all in on AJG.  The Dalton/AJG lovefest is one of the few true ones left (Big Ben/AB and Ryan/Julio probably still qualify).  We no longer have Cutler/Jeffrey, Rodgers/Nelson or Tannehill/Landry to depend on.   Maybe Watson/Hopkins will emerge, but right now, no one has stronger chemistry than Dalton and AJG.  As long as Dalton is breathing, he'll force things AJG's way come hell or high water.  If the O-line improves in Cincy and Mixon comes on, Dalton will rebound considerably.  That rebound, if it happens, will lift AJG to the front of WR pack IMO.    

 

AJG simply didn't get enough targets last year. If Eifert can stay healthy, he significantly dents Green's TD upside. 

 

The Dalton/Green connection doesn't mean much if Green isn't getting fed a minimum of 9 targets/game. 

 

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
4 hours ago, joshua18 said:

 

AJG simply didn't get enough targets last year. If Eifert can stay healthy, he significantly dents Green's TD upside. 

 

The Dalton/Green connection doesn't mean much if Green isn't getting fed a minimum of 9 targets/game. 

 

Do we really belive Eifert can stay healthy?? The biggest thing going against AJG is he can't stay healthy.  But I agree if he does he should finish top 4 to 10.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
Posted (edited)

I like Devante Adams to have a big year as the unquestioned number one receiver in a Rodgers led offense.

i like Allen Robinson to return to form and put up something like 1100-1300 and 8+ TDs

i think Josh Gordon could flirt with WR1 numbers

I think Will Fuller could put up solid WR2 numbers with Watson at QB.

i like Evans to rebound big time.

 

Edited by petekrum
  • Like 3

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
Posted (edited)
18 hours ago, Rolling Thunder said:

I feel as if Nuke and M. Thomas will be worth whatever folks pay for them.

 

I still don't understand the Michael Thomas love -- from a fantasy perspective.

 

He is a great player.  He's Brees's number 1.  Most catches in his first two years or something like that.  A reliable fantasy asset.  All that, sure.  But he is not an elite fantasy WR1.  He still finished behind Brandin Cooks for goodness sake.  Does anyone else remember that long discussion about which player would outscore the other?  No one seems to care who won that battle.

 

Don't know how we can say he'll be worth whatever people pay.  FantasyPros.com has him WR4, leading the second tier, right after the Brown, Hopkins, ODB tier.  That is undoubtedly overvalued.

 

I just. don't. get it.  

Edited by Lord_Varys

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Tier One

1. Antonio Brown - until he stops being the best WR in the game, I'll rank him here.

2. DeAndre Hopkins - for obvious reasons

Tier Two

3. Davante Adams - Rodgers #1.  Was WR6 (standard) on a points per game basis in 2017 even with Rodgers injury.  12+ TDs seems a certainty.

4. Odell Beckham Jr. - Shurmur helps the offense.  But he's not in AB's tier anymore.

Tier Three

5. Julio Jones - 6-9 points every week, with two weeks of 25+.  Boost in PPR.  Can't complain.

6. AJ Green - The offense has to improve.  Right?

7. Doug Baldwin - Jimmy Graham was a red zone magnet which really hurt Baldwin.  He's gone so TDs should improve dramatically.  Defense is done which will force offense to throw, and there's no one left to catch any of Wilson's 550 targets.

Tier Four

8. Mike Evans - This would be a big improvement on his WR20 finish last year (WR19 points per game).  2016 was great, but Godwin, Howard, and DJax are here now.

9. Michael Thomas - Super steady and reliable low end WR1.

10. Keenan Allen - I would have to take him at this point but the injury risk still frightens me.

11. T.Y. Hilton - going to bounce back strong with Luck back and no other good WRs.

12. Alshon Jeffery - Slow start but really emerged down the stretch last year.

 

Agree with petekrum big time on all of his points, especially Will Fuller providing great value.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Is there anyone high on Marvin Jones? He seemed very good when targetted last year, and with the inability to have a run game in detroit it might be a breakout year for him.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
2 minutes ago, egolam said:

Is there anyone high on Marvin Jones? He seemed very good when targetted last year, and with the inability to have a run game in detroit it might be a breakout year for him.

 

I like him, but I think you saw his ceiling last year, and I wonder if the talented Golladay might start to eat into his numbers.

  • Like 1

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
Posted (edited)

Allen Robinson seems to epitomize the undervalued WR who could easily be top 10. With their new offensive system, the  Bears offense could turn things around like the Rams did. He was brought in to be a big, dominant, go-to WR. It’s not a sure thing, which is why he’s potentially undervalued, but when you remove 2017’s season lost to injury, he’s just one season removed from putting up 1400/14 in 2015. Even his “disappointing” 900/6 in 2016 wouldn’t be a season killer based on his current value. Robinson is a prototypical low risk high reward WR in 2018. 

Edited by Lamont Sanford

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
32 minutes ago, Lord_Varys said:

 

I still don't understand the Michael Thomas love -- from a fantasy perspective.

 

He is a great player.  He's Brees's number 1.  Most catches in his first two years or something like that.  A reliable fantasy asset.  All that, sure.  But he is not an elite fantasy WR1.  He still finished behind Brandin Cooks for goodness sake.  Does anyone else remember that long discussion about which player would outscore the other?  No one seems to care who won that battle.

 

Don't know how we can say he'll be worth whatever people pay.  FantasyPros.com has him WR4, leading the second tier, right after the Brown, Hopkins, ODB tier.  That is undoubtedly overvalued.

 

I just. don't. get it.  

 

He didn't finish behind Cooks in my leagues. Maybe you only play standard leagues that count week 17?  In the PPR fantasy season last year, he was the WR5 (16.2 PPG) vs WR13 (13.4 PPG) for Cooks.

 

Hes a complete stud who is due for positive TD regression in a year the Saints are unlikely to have as few passing attempts as they did in 2017. Plus they added no real WR or TE weapons to compete with him for targets. Easily a top-6 WR IMO.

 

  • Like 3

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
16 hours ago, Rolling Thunder said:

 

M. Thomas has to be #6, right?

 

Not holding you to it (between now and August lots will change), but how would you round out your top 10?  Baldwin?  Adams? TY? ARob?  Cooper?  D. Thomas?

 

How do you read Woods, Garcon, Gordon and Crabtree?  Maybe Shuster too?

 

 

I would easily take Thomas over Allen. Given the age difference, probably over Julio as well.

  • Like 1

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
Just now, joshua18 said:

 

He didn't finish behind Cooks in my leagues. Maybe you only play standard leagues that count week 17?  In the PPR fantasy season last year, he was the WR5 (16.2 PPG) vs WR13 (13.4 PPG) for Cooks.

 

Hes a complete stud who is due for positive TD regression in a year the Saints are unlikely to have as few passing attempts as they did in 2017. Plus they added no real WR or TE weapons to compete with him for targets. Easily a top-6 WR IMO.

 

 

I do look at standard mainly.  And I'm looking at my league page which included week 17. Fun fact actually, I had a bet with a friend that Cooks would finish ahead of Thomas. Literally only two weeks of the entire year that Thomas was ahead of Cooks in total points were Week 2 (by a tenth of a point)... And Week 16.  And since that's our league year I lost the bet. Now I have to look at the players page which includes week 17 and Cooks is ahead of Thomas again, reminding me. 

 

Anyways, what were we talking about? 

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
7 minutes ago, Lord_Varys said:

 

I do look at standard mainly.  And I'm looking at my league page which included week 17. Fun fact actually, I had a bet with a friend that Cooks would finish ahead of Thomas. Literally only two weeks of the entire year that Thomas was ahead of Cooks in total points were Week 2 (by a tenth of a point)... And Week 16.  And since that's our league year I lost the bet. Now I have to look at the players page which includes week 17 and Cooks is ahead of Thomas again, reminding me. 

 

Anyways, what were we talking about? 

 

We were talking about Thomas as the legit stud WR that he is. His floor is definitely higher in PPR, but with Edelman and Hogan back, Cooks may not see as many targets or TDs as he did in 2017.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Quincy Enunwa will be coming back from his surgery next year and going a Jets team that's still rudderless and lacks a stud WR1. Robby Anderson is a moron whose off-field antics may get him bounced from the NFL, Kearse has no guaranteed money for 2018 and could be cut with no dead money cap hit, and who knows if the real Terrelle Pryor is the 2016 elite or 2017 terrible version of himself.   In 2016, Enunwa had 105 targets with a 14+ YPC average (admittedly only 58 receptions on those targets for 857 yards and 4 TD).  Making a couple assumptions:  (1) presuming 2018 McCown is a slight improvement at QB over 2016 Fitzpatrick, (2) Jets go from near the bottom of the league in pass attempts to league median (adding ~50 attempts),  (3) Quincy maintains or improves his ~100 target share in the offense, and (4) Quincy can improve his catch rate then you have a plausible WR2 whose current consensus ADP is WR69 and 202 overall. 

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Create an account or sign in to comment

You need to be a member in order to leave a comment

Create an account

Sign up for a new account in our community. It's easy!

Register a new account

Sign in

Already have an account? Sign in here.

Sign In Now

  • Recently Browsing   0 members

    No registered users viewing this page.