Rolling Thunder

2018 WR Rankings and Discussion

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Just now, jumper said:

Quincy Enunwa will be coming back from his surgery next year and going a Jets team that's still rudderless and lacks a stud WR1. Robby Anderson is a moron whose off-field antics may get him bounced from the NFL, Kearse has no guaranteed money for 2018 and could be cut with no dead money cap hit, and who knows if the real Terrelle Pryor is the 2016 elite or 2017 terrible version of himself.   In 2016, Enunwa had 105 targets with a 14+ YPC average (admittedly only 58 receptions on those targets for 857 yards and 4 TD).  Making a couple assumptions:  (1) presuming 2018 McCown is a slight improvement at QB over 2016 Fitzpatrick, (2) Jets go from near the bottom of the league in pass attempts to league median (adding ~50 attempts),  (3) Quincy maintains or improves his ~100 target share in the offense, and (4) Quincy can improve his catch rate then you have a plausible WR2 whose current consensus ADP is WR69 and 202 overall. 

 

Pryor has never been elite. He barely got 1000 yards in 2016 despite Hugh forcefeeding him targets to bolster his own reputation. 

 

Anderson is legit, as he showed last year and the end of 2016. Being suspended isn't the same as being booted from the league. 

 

McCown would have to stay healthy to supplant 2015 Fitzmagic, who threw for more yards and as many TDs as Aaron Rodgers that season. He's never stayed healthy, and at age 38 it's unwise to assume he'll do so for the first time ever. 

 

All that being said, I like Enunwa this year

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Posted (edited)
48 minutes ago, joshua18 said:

 

We were talking about Thomas as the legit stud WR that he is. His floor is definitely higher in PPR, but with Edelman and Hogan back, Cooks may not see as many targets or TDs as he did in 2017.

 

Oh yeah, not saying Cooks will beat Thomas again. He's a whole other discussion. 

 

Thomas "should" get more TDs. I wanna see elite performance before I pay a premium for it. 

Edited by Lord_Varys

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8 minutes ago, joshua18 said:

 

Pryor has never been elite. He barely got 1000 yards in 2016 despite Hugh forcefeeding him targets to bolster his own reputation. 

 

Anderson is legit, as he showed last year and the end of 2016. Being suspended isn't the same as being booted from the league. 

 

McCown would have to stay healthy to supplant 2015 Fitzmagic, who threw for more yards and as many TDs as Aaron Rodgers that season. He's never stayed healthy, and at age 38 it's unwise to assume he'll do so for the first time ever. 

 

All that being said, I like Enunwa this year

 

Robby has been arrested twice already, the second being when he told the police officer "I'll nut in your wife's eye" after being stopped going 60mph over the speed limit so his conduct getting him booted isn't a complete pipe dream.  And Fitz's sole magic season of 2015 still was only good enough for 15th most in the NFL that year, that's a mark that could (emphasis on could) be duplicated by McCown and/or Bridgewater and whatever rook the Jets draft this year.  

 

That being said there were a lot of assumptions baked into my tout, so take it for what it's worth.  It's a lot of dominos to fall into place but the stake you're putting in at current ADPs is pretty minimal, like a 17th or 18th round pick.  

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Pryor is nothing more than a complimentary WR at this point. He never has been and never will be "elite". How much more do we need to see? I'm not sure he gets drafted in my Standard leagues. If he does it's gonna be real late. 

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5 hours ago, joshua18 said:

 

He didn't finish behind Cooks in my leagues. Maybe you only play standard leagues that count week 17?  In the PPR fantasy season last year, he was the WR5 (16.2 PPG) vs WR13 (13.4 PPG) for Cooks.

 

Hes a complete stud who is due for positive TD regression in a year the Saints are unlikely to have as few passing attempts as they did in 2017. Plus they added no real WR or TE weapons to compete with him for targets. Easily a top-6 WR IMO.

 

Exactly.  Everything worked against Thomas last year(had three tds called back and No had by far the best running game in the league) and he still finished as a top 5 WR in ppr.  

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Unless Anderson ends up on the commissioner list, we should know the exact suspension length before the season. I think he flashed too much for the Jets to just cut him loose, they kept Richardson when he was arguably just as stupid. (I consider 143 with a minor and resisting arrest as dumb as 60 over and threatening to cuckold an officer)

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On 3/24/2018 at 1:40 PM, hoppychokes said:

Unless Anderson ends up on the commissioner list, we should know the exact suspension length before the season. I think he flashed too much for the Jets to just cut him loose, they kept Richardson when he was arguably just as stupid. (I consider 143 with a minor and resisting arrest as dumb as 60 over and threatening to cuckold an officer)

 

There's ZERO chance the jets cut Anderson.

 

Edit:  I should clarify.  There's zero chance they cut him just based on what he's done thus far.

 

 

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On 3/24/2018 at 4:31 AM, Lord_Varys said:

 

I still don't understand the Michael Thomas love -- from a fantasy perspective.

 

He is a great player.  He's Brees's number 1.  Most catches in his first two years or something like that.  A reliable fantasy asset.  All that, sure.  But he is not an elite fantasy WR1.  He still finished behind Brandin Cooks for goodness sake.  Does anyone else remember that long discussion about which player would outscore the other?  No one seems to care who won that battle.

 

Don't know how we can say he'll be worth whatever people pay.  FantasyPros.com has him WR4, leading the second tier, right after the Brown, Hopkins, ODB tier.  That is undoubtedly overvalued.

 

I just. don't. get it.  

 

We must play in different leagues.

 

In all the leagues I play in (4 of them, all PPR), Michael Thomas was #7, with 16.2  PPG.  Cooks was #19, with 13.7 PPG.

 

Just as importantly, Thomas showed up when I needed him most:

 

Week 13 -- 18.0 pts

Week 14 -- 27.7 pts 

Week 15 -- 24.3 pts

 

Not sure where the disconnect is coming from, but Thomas is a very good player, in a very good situation, with a very good record for production.  Cooks doesn't come close in my book.

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On 3/24/2018 at 4:46 AM, Lord_Varys said:

Tier One

1. Antonio Brown - until he stops being the best WR in the game, I'll rank him here.

2. DeAndre Hopkins - for obvious reasons

Tier Two

3. Davante Adams - Rodgers #1.  Was WR6 (standard) on a points per game basis in 2017 even with Rodgers injury.  12+ TDs seems a certainty.

4. Odell Beckham Jr. - Shurmur helps the offense.  But he's not in AB's tier anymore.

Tier Three

5. Julio Jones - 6-9 points every week, with two weeks of 25+.  Boost in PPR.  Can't complain.

6. AJ Green - The offense has to improve.  Right?

7. Doug Baldwin - Jimmy Graham was a red zone magnet which really hurt Baldwin.  He's gone so TDs should improve dramatically.  Defense is done which will force offense to throw, and there's no one left to catch any of Wilson's 550 targets.

Tier Four

8. Mike Evans - This would be a big improvement on his WR20 finish last year (WR19 points per game).  2016 was great, but Godwin, Howard, and DJax are here now.

9. Michael Thomas - Super steady and reliable low end WR1.

10. Keenan Allen - I would have to take him at this point but the injury risk still frightens me.

11. T.Y. Hilton - going to bounce back strong with Luck back and no other good WRs.

12. Alshon Jeffery - Slow start but really emerged down the stretch last year.

 

Agree with petekrum big time on all of his points, especially Will Fuller providing great value.

 

This is a good list.

 

As always, PPR vs Standard affects slotting quite a bit.

 

Both Allen and Thomas have to be higher in PPR.

 

I'd probably go with ARob before Jeffrey in PPR, although it's close.  I usually favor incumbent players with incumbent QBs over a player facing new surroundings, but I'm unconvinced that Jeffrey will ever be the target hog that he was with Cutler.  Like I said, it's a close decision.

 

 

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7 hours ago, Rolling Thunder said:

 

We must play in different leagues.

 

In all the leagues I play in (4 of them, all PPR), Michael Thomas was #7, with 16.2  PPG.  Cooks was #19, with 13.7 PPG.

 

Just as importantly, Thomas showed up when I needed him most:

 

Week 13 -- 18.0 pts

Week 14 -- 27.7 pts 

Week 15 -- 24.3 pts

 

Not sure where the disconnect is coming from, but Thomas is a very good player, in a very good situation, with a very good record for production.  Cooks doesn't come close in my book.

 

Looks like you're in PPR.

 

Cooks had more points in standard over 17 weeks.  Also a very good player, very good situation, very good record.

 

Thomas WR10 and WR8 in his first two years.  Not worth a WR4 price tag until he proves it.

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48 minutes ago, Lord_Varys said:

 

Looks like you're in PPR.

 

Cooks had more points in standard over 17 weeks.  Also a very good player, very good situation, very good record.

 

Thomas WR10 and WR8 in his first two years.  Not worth a WR4 price tag until he proves it.

 

I play in mostly standard leagues. Looking back at the rankings it looks like Thomas was WR #8 with 147 point and Cooks was WR #10 with 144. This is without any special scoring in my leagues as well.

 

That being said, I would agree in standard at least I wouldn't put Thomas as the WR4. I think he is right around #6-#8

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Alshon's a tough sell for me.   He's going to have to play catchup a bit this offseason after surgery, and he's in a spread it around offense.  In PPR last year, Agholor had around the same amount of points as Alshon, and did it on much less targets (120 to 95).   Jeffery I think will have bigger games at times, but Agholor week to week is much more consistent there.  

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On 3/24/2018 at 6:31 AM, Lord_Varys said:

 

I still don't understand the Michael Thomas love -- from a fantasy perspective.

 

I just. don't. get it.  

 

I feel the same way about Davante Adams.

 

On 3/24/2018 at 6:46 AM, Lord_Varys said:

Tier One

1. Antonio Brown - until he stops being the best WR in the game, I'll rank him here.

2. DeAndre Hopkins - for obvious reasons

Tier Two

3. Davante Adams - Rodgers #1.  Was WR6 (standard) on a points per game basis in 2017 even with Rodgers injury.  12+ TDs seems a certainty.

4. Odell Beckham Jr. - Shurmur helps the offense.  But he's not in AB's tier anymore.

 

I realize that Adams had a breakout year of sorts last year (74 rec / 885 yards / 10 TDs), and that he did well with Rodgers in 2016 (75 rec / 997 yards / 12 TDs), but I see him as having realized his ceiling until proving otherwise. True, Jordy is gone, and that's 1257 yards and 14 TDs from 2016 (97 receptions) unaccounted for. But Adams also didn't do much of anything except drop passes his sophomore year when Jordy was out (483 yards, 1TD). I suppose Adams' drops have improved---he's now credited for 5 dropped passes in 2017 and 5 dropped passes in 2016----but I still don't see the necessary gameplay, the tenaciousness, including reliable hands, to move him up to #3 on the chart. I watch the Pack weekly. Sometimes Adams makes great plays, sometimes he's where he should be and snatches an easy TD, and sometimes he's achieving decent separation. Other times, he's not. Coaching staff has helped him to improve significantly from 2014/2015, and I imagine he'll grow, but from where I sit Adams need to improve in varied facets, including anger and energy and focus (traits that help OBJ and Keenen Allen and Nuk to command the field in their roles as #1 target). Every play is imperative, and hopefully Adams will play with more urgency, but until I see it Adams ranks considerably lower in my notebook.

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Posted (edited)
16 minutes ago, cohenstantinople said:

I feel the same way about Davante Adams.

 

I realize that I said "I won't pay WR4 for Thomas until he proves it", even after saying I'm gonna pay WR4 for Adams, who has not yet proven it.

 

My thinking is this:

- Adams was WR6 in points per game in 2017.  Even with Brett Hundley.

- GB WR1 has historically been a high end fantasy WR1 when healthy, with Rodgers.

- NO's WR1 has historically not been a high end fantasy WR1.  Brees spreads it around.

- Adams had 12TD in 16 games in 2016, then 10TD in 14.5 games in 2017, again with Hundley.  Thomas had 9 (in 15g) and 5 (in 16g).  Since I lean standard, I feel a hell of a lot safer about Adams TD potential.

Edited by Lord_Varys

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Adams has the TD production to feel safe about drafting him high, as his floor is up there.   There's no reason we should expect less than 75 catches based on the last couple of years.    Now, Jordy is gone, and all those targets are free, he's got 90 catch potential on top of his 12 TD upside.    Once you get past the guys with zero question marks, Adams fits right in with that next group.   I'm still not taking him over Julio or OBJ, but I'm absolutely slotting right behind those guys.   In my auction league, I feel fairly certain he's my WR1 next year right now since I feel like I'll get him a few $ cheaper than guys in the same bucket.

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20 minutes ago, BrianM said:

Adams [...] I'm still not taking him over Julio or OBJ, but I'm absolutely slotting right behind those guys.

 

Forgetting AB, Nuk, and Keenan Allen? or do you place Adams above these three?

 

For me, I'm still looking to reconcile where to place Adams, though I do not count him in my top 5, no way.

 

Green and Evans could easily end 2018 with top 5 numbers... or just as easily end just outside the top 10. Maybe MThomas too. Curious to see how Diggs and Thielen fare with Cousins at QB. And DThomas and Sanders with Keenum. If one WR emerges on either Denver or the Vikings, I'd expect big numbers.

 

36 minutes ago, Lord_Varys said:

 

I realize that I said "I won't pay WR4 for Thomas until he proves it", even after saying I'm gonna pay WR4 for Adams, who has not yet proven it.

 

My thinking is this:

- Adams was WR6 in points per game in 2017.  Even with Brett Hundley.

- GB WR1 has historically been a high end fantasy WR1 when healthy, with Rodgers.

- NO's WR1 has historically not been a high end fantasy WR1.  Brees spreads it around.

- Adams had 12TD in 16 games in 2016, then 10TD in 14.5 games in 2017, again with Hundley.  Thomas had 9 (in 15g) and 5 (in 16g).  Since I lean standard, I feel a hell of a lot safer about Adams TD potential.

 

Like BrianM implied, I feel safer acquiring Adams in auction --- there's more wiggle room regarding the roster. For a draft pick, I don't see choosing Adams in the first round, and I would only choose him in the mid-to-late second. I'd sooner go with Cobb (or Jordan Matthews if he's a Packer) in Round 6. (Unless Adams has some record-breaking pre-season --- is that a thing?)

 

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6 minutes ago, cohenstantinople said:

For a draft pick, I don't see choosing Adams in the first round, and I would only choose him in the mid-to-late second.

 

Same.  I wouldn't take any WR not named AB or Nuk in the 1st round in any format.  Mid-to-late 2nd is fair for Adams, for me personally.

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9 minutes ago, cohenstantinople said:

 

Forgetting AB, Nuk, and Keenan Allen? or do you place Adams above these three?

 

 

I just assumed AB and Nuk are 1 and 2 for everyone, so I omitted them from that particular comment.   Keenan Allen is probably also ahead of Adams for me as well, I'm not scared of Allen.   

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Adams is a huge value pick in my eyes depending on where your draft position is. Him and Rogers will have a huge year. No Doubt!

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Posted (edited)
On 3/26/2018 at 8:00 AM, Lord_Varys said:

Looks like you're in PPR.

 

Everyone is my man. 

Edited by P@ckersFan

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I think Adams will have a great year, but he isn't the burner that Jordy was, so he's not going to be replacing that kind of production. Also, Rodgers likes to spread it around and Jimmy Graham is bound to see a ton of red one targets, which is where Adams does a lot of damage. There's absolutely no way that I'd rank Adams higher than OBJ, Thomas, Julio, AJ Green, or Keenan Allen. 

 

He's a great value pick at the back half of the 2nd round, but I think making him a top 15 pick would be crazy. 

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On 3/26/2018 at 6:48 AM, Lord_Varys said:

 

I realize that I said "I won't pay WR4 for Thomas until he proves it", even after saying I'm gonna pay WR4 for Adams, who has not yet proven it.

 

My thinking is this:

- Adams was WR6 in points per game in 2017.  Even with Brett Hundley.

- GB WR1 has historically been a high end fantasy WR1 when healthy, with Rodgers.

- NO's WR1 has historically not been a high end fantasy WR1.  Brees spreads it around.

- Adams had 12TD in 16 games in 2016, then 10TD in 14.5 games in 2017, again with Hundley.  Thomas had 9 (in 15g) and 5 (in 16g).  Since I lean standard, I feel a hell of a lot safer about Adams TD potential.

Doesn't make your statement any less hypocritical. I can do the same for Thomas by stating he still had a very good season despite the abnormal uptick in rushing TDs and an anomaly season in terms of QB production.

 

Paying for players that haven't proven it is part of fantasy. Once they have proven it it's too late.

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On ‎3‎/‎26‎/‎2018 at 9:48 AM, Lord_Varys said:

 

I realize that I said "I won't pay WR4 for Thomas until he proves it", even after saying I'm gonna pay WR4 for Adams, who has not yet proven it.

 

My thinking is this:

- Adams was WR6 in points per game in 2017.  Even with Brett Hundley.

- GB WR1 has historically been a high end fantasy WR1 when healthy, with Rodgers.

- NO's WR1 has historically not been a high end fantasy WR1.  Brees spreads it around.

- Adams had 12TD in 16 games in 2016, then 10TD in 14.5 games in 2017, again with Hundley.  Thomas had 9 (in 15g) and 5 (in 16g).  Since I lean standard, I feel a hell of a lot safer about Adams TD potential.

 

 

I am not sold on D Adams but I think people should consider how valuable this was last year in standard. For example, Keenen Allan finished as the WR3 (!!!) and yet was just a middling WR2 (at best) before he had two 25 point games in weeks 14 and 15. You could easily make the case that Adams was more valuable because his production was more consistent. Sort of like a 2015 and 2016 M Crabtree. If Adams finishes as the WR11 (like last year) but puts up the consistent per-game floor again like he did, I'd be happy to have him over a 2017 K Allen who blows up for 2 games and gets 30-60 yards and an occasional TD the rest of the year. Time will tell. I would hesitate to grab Adams in the 2nd but think he's a great pick in the 3rd.

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1 hour ago, FreakFries said:

 

 

I am not sold on D Adams but I think people should consider how valuable this was last year in standard. For example, Keenen Allan finished as the WR3 (!!!) and yet was just a middling WR2 (at best) before he had two 25 point games in weeks 14 and 15. You could easily make the case that Adams was more valuable because his production was more consistent. Sort of like a 2015 and 2016 M Crabtree. If Adams finishes as the WR11 (like last year) but puts up the consistent per-game floor again like he did, I'd be happy to have him over a 2017 K Allen who blows up for 2 games and gets 30-60 yards and an occasional TD the rest of the year. Time will tell. I would hesitate to grab Adams in the 2nd but think he's a great pick in the 3rd.

I’m planning RB-RB (PPR) but I’d consider D. Adams in the 2nd If my RB isn’t there.  

 

D. Adams will put up more TD’s than K. Allen, but I have him ranked after him.  

 

Take a look at K. Allen’s targets after the bye: 7, 13, 14, 14, 8, 9, 10, 12.  K. Allen is excellent with volume.

 

The one knock against K. Allen is great defenses can shut him down.  Both receivers feist on bad D’s.

 

In PPR the winner is K. Allen, but I might swap the 2 If Green Bay has a favorable schedule.

 

If I get either of these guys in the 3rd I’d be thrilled.

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1 hour ago, seanismorris said:

I’m planning RB-RB (PPR) but I’d consider D. Adams in the 2nd If my RB isn’t there.  

 

D. Adams will put up more TD’s than K. Allen, but I have him ranked after him.  

 

Take a look at K. Allen’s targets after the bye: 7, 13, 14, 14, 8, 9, 10, 12.  K. Allen is excellent with volume.

 

The one knock against K. Allen is great defenses can shut him down.  Both receivers feist on bad D’s.

 

In PPR the winner is K. Allen, but I might swap the 2 If Green Bay has a favorable schedule.

 

If I get either of these guys in the 3rd I’d be thrilled.

 

 

You our are right about those targets. That was frustrating to no end last season. He got tons of targets but considering how many he got, he didn’t seem to do much with them. I’d like to say that was a fluke but that’s how it was almost the whole season. Adams on the other hand seemed to do more with the targets he had. Not saying that was anything special but he was certainly more consistent than Allen. That said, I’d probably take Allen over Adams too. But they both have their pros and cons.

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