Rolling Thunder

2018 WR Rankings and Discussion

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53 minutes ago, FreakFries said:

 

 

You our are right about those targets. That was frustrating to no end last season. He got tons of targets but considering how many he got, he didn’t seem to do much with them. I’d like to say that was a fluke but that’s how it was almost the whole season. Adams on the other hand seemed to do more with the targets he had. Not saying that was anything special but he was certainly more consistent than Allen. That said, I’d probably take Allen over Adams too. But they both have their pros and cons.

I posted this on another thread.  It’s from PFF (see below).  What I’ve discovered is Adams is underrated here.  It may be because Rodgers didn’t play much last year, or Adams started his career slowly.  But, people seem to think he’s just an average WR, and he’s considerably better.

 

Davante Adams, Green Bay Packers

To answer our initial question, Adams’ season by adjusted-WR Rating was indeed superior to Hill’s. His +30.7 differential actually ranks 10th-best by any wide receiver of the PFF era (since 2007). Fellow wide receiver Randall Cobb also ranked within the top-20, while Jordy Nelson (the PFF-era leader in WR Rating) ranked bottom-20 for the first time in his career. Perhaps this played a role in his departure, but in either case both Adams and Cobb appear to be strong ADP values assuming more available targets and a healthy return of Aaron Rodgers.

 

https://www.profootballfocus.com/news/fantasy-football-metrics-that-matter-adjusted-wr-rating

 

Jordy Nelson leads all wide receivers in career WR Rating this past decade, but fell to just 72.6 last year. Davante Adams, meanwhile, was far more impressive, and especially so considering 61 percent of his targets came from Brett Hundley(70.6 passer rating in 2017). Perhaps this played a role in Green Bay’s decision to release Nelson and sign Adams to a four-year, $58 million extension. After finishing sixth-best in fantasy points per game last year, he seems like a safe investment at ADP WR9 with a healthy Aaron Rodgers and less competition for targets.

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Posted (edited)
On 3/26/2018 at 9:54 AM, BrianM said:

Adams has the TD production to feel safe about drafting him high, as his floor is up there.   

 

I think you are confusing ceiling and floor.

Edited by dmb3684

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On 3/24/2018 at 7:59 AM, joshua18 said:

 

Pryor has never been elite. He barely got 1000 yards in 2016 despite Hugh forcefeeding him targets to bolster his own reputation. 

 

Anderson is legit, as he showed last year and the end of 2016. Being suspended isn't the same as being booted from the league. 

 

McCown would have to stay healthy to supplant 2015 Fitzmagic, who threw for more yards and as many TDs as Aaron Rodgers that season. He's never stayed healthy, and at age 38 it's unwise to assume he'll do so for the first time ever. 

 

All that being said, I like Enunwa this year

I like enunwa as well. Good value pick

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12 hours ago, dmb3684 said:

 

I think you are confusing ceiling and floor.

 

*Looks down- sees "Davante Adams highly likely to score 8 TD's at least" written on the ground*

 

Nope, I'm good. 

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On 3/24/2018 at 7:31 AM, Lord_Varys said:

 

I still don't understand the Michael Thomas love -- from a fantasy perspective.

 

He is a great player.  He's Brees's number 1.  Most catches in his first two years or something like that.  A reliable fantasy asset.  All that, sure.  But he is not an elite fantasy WR1.  He still finished behind Brandin Cooks for goodness sake.  Does anyone else remember that long discussion about which player would outscore the other?  No one seems to care who won that battle.

 

Don't know how we can say he'll be worth whatever people pay.  FantasyPros.com has him WR4, leading the second tier, right after the Brown, Hopkins, ODB tier.  That is undoubtedly overvalued.

 

I just. don't. get it.  

 

It's simple really

 

Saints passing

2017: 536 att- 4189yds-23tds

2016:  674 att-5074yds- 38tds

 

-22% atts  -20% yds -49% tds = massive drop off in passing as the Saints focused on the ground game.

No one predicted the saints would run the ball the way they did post Cooks

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1 hour ago, BrianM said:

 

*Looks down- sees "Davante Adams highly likely to score 8 TD's at least" written on the ground*

 

Nope, I'm good. 

 

Right, but TDs can be fluky. A player that is a lock for 80 catches or  so would have a high floor and a TD dependent player would have a higher ceiling.

 

 

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19 minutes ago, dmb3684 said:

 

Right, but TDs can be fluky. A player that is a lock for 80 catches or  so would have a high floor and a TD dependent player would have a higher ceiling.

 

 

 

I think Adams is safe to score a lot of TD's- my personal view.   Some folks think he wont achieve the greatest of heights folks like me have deemed possible, and that's worth a debate, but I think at worst, Adams is a top 12 guy.   Volume Volume Volume, red zone prowess.   

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42 minutes ago, BrianM said:

 

I think Adams is safe to score a lot of TD's- my personal view.   Some folks think he wont achieve the greatest of heights folks like me have deemed possible, and that's worth a debate, but I think at worst, Adams is a top 12 guy.   Volume Volume Volume, red zone prowess.   

 

Right. His ADP is mid 2nd round. If he finishes 10-12 his floor wouldn't meet his ADP, thus his floor isn't as high as you think. Agreed?

 

FWIW I like Adams this year too

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19 minutes ago, dmb3684 said:

 

Right. His ADP is mid 2nd round. If he finishes 10-12 his floor wouldn't meet his ADP, thus his floor isn't as high as you think. Agreed?

 

FWIW I like Adams this year too

 

Haven't looked much at ADP's.  If he's going that early, yep.    But everyone's floor is below their ADP to some degree.  Technically his floor is lower than i'm even stating, since an injured Rodgers is a reasonable premise.   That's my only real concern with Adams.   

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38 minutes ago, BrianM said:

 

Haven't looked much at ADP's.  If he's  But everyone's floor is below their ADP to some degree.  Technically his floor is lower than i'm even stating, since an injured Rodgers is a reasonable premise.   That's my only real concern with Adams.   

 

I just looked for reference. It's way too early anyhow. I'm a buyer in mid second round though. 

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20 hours ago, dmb3684 said:

 

Right, but TDs can be fluky. A player that is a lock for 80 catches or  so would have a high floor and a TD dependent player would have a higher ceiling.

 

 

 

But are they really fluky for the unquestioned number one WR in a Rodgers led offense? He’s gonna throw close to 40 TDs, it’s almost impossible for Adams not to have 8+ of those.

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18 hours ago, dmb3684 said:

 

I just looked for reference. It's way too early anyhow. I'm a buyer in mid second round though. 

 

I do agree he’s looking at mid 2nd with the sheer amount of RBs that will be going in the 1st.

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Posted (edited)

Can we talk JuJu here?

 

From week 8 through the end of the regular season, JuJu was an eye-popping #3 overall WR for PPG in PPR.  He averaged 19 pts in those 7 consecutive games.

 

After the top 6-7 WRs, here is a rough list (I know I'm probably missing some) of the guys who probably deserve to be in the next tier or series of tiers:

 

M. Thomas

Evans

Baldwin

 

Cooper

D. Thomas

ARob

 

Diggs

Fitz

Garcon

T.Y. (presumably Luck-less)

Landry

Jeffrey

Thielen

Hill

 

Should we really put JuJu with the top of that group given his consistently elite numbers from the last half of 2017?  That concept is hard to process because he's so new, but his most meaningful numbers, obvious talent, and unchanged circumstances are facts that are hard to ignore.

 

Also, please share any thoughts you might have about how the list might be separated into tiers.  After ARob, I really haven't spent much time ranking folks.

 

Edited by Rolling Thunder

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4 minutes ago, Rolling Thunder said:

Can we talk JuJu here?

 

From week 8 through the end of the regular season, JuJu was an eye-popping #3 overall WR for PPG in PPR.  He averaged 19 pts in those 7 consecutive games.

 

After the top 6-7 WRs, here is a rough list (I know I'm probably missing some) of the guys who probably deserve to be in the next tier or series of tiers:

 

M. Thomas

Evans

Baldwin

 

Cooper

D. Thomas

ARob

 

Diggs

Fitz

Garcon

T.Y. (presumably Luck-less)

Landry

Jeffrey

Thielen

Hill

 

Should we really put JuJu with the top of that group given his consistently elite numbers from the last half of 2017?  That concept is hard to process because he's so new, but his most meaningful numbers, obvious talent, and unchanged circumstances are facts that are hard to ignore.

 

Also, please share any thoughts you might have about how the list might be separated into tiers.  After ARob, I really haven't spent much time ranking folks.

 

 

Thats just not true unless you leave out the 2 weeks he missed and count the meaningless week 17 where Big Ben, AB and Bell didn't even play. 

 

Total PPR pts from wks 8-16 (thru FFL championship week), he got 104.3, which was WR22 over that stretch.

 

Juju has become vastly overvalued IMO. 

 

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2 hours ago, joshua18 said:

 

Thats just not true unless you leave out the 2 weeks he missed and count the meaningless week 17 where Big Ben, AB and Bell didn't even play. 

 

Total PPR pts from wks 8-16 (thru FFL championship week), he got 104.3, which was WR22 over that stretch.

 

Juju has become vastly overvalued IMO. 

 

 

Here is what I have for JuJu over the last 7 regular season games he played in:

 

Week / Points*

 

  8 / 32.2

10 / 20.7

11 / 8.7

13 / 5.7

15 / 17.4

16 / 19.5

17 / 29.3

 

These points totals include a 2 pt bonus for 100 yd games, but other than that, they represent standard PPR scoring.

 

If I am doing my math right, the total for the 7 games is 133, or 19 PPG.  For the season, only Nuk (22.2) and AB (20.7) had higher PPG production than JuJu's PPG in the second half of the season.  Allen came in 3rd at 17.8 PPG.

 

How did I calculate JuJu's PPG over the last 7 games that he played wrong?    

 

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2 hours ago, Rolling Thunder said:

 

Here is what I have for JuJu over the last 7 regular season games he played in:

 

Week / Points*

 

  8 / 32.2

10 / 20.7

11 / 8.7

13 / 5.7

15 / 17.4

16 / 19.5

17 / 29.3

 

These points totals include a 2 pt bonus for 100 yd games, but other than that, they represent standard PPR scoring.

 

If I am doing my math right, the total for the 7 games is 133, or 19 PPG.  For the season, only Nuk (22.2) and AB (20.7) had higher PPG production than JuJu's PPG in the second half of the season.  Allen came in 3rd at 17.8 PPG.

 

How did I calculate JuJu's PPG over the last 7 games that he played wrong?    

 

 

You're counting week 17 which you shouldn't -- no Big Ben, AB or Bell; it was basically a preseason game that helped no FFL owners. That's the biggest difference. 

 

PPG doesn't help when you miss games -- its cherry picking. Those weeks 12 and 14 he missed were crucial to seasons, which is why total points over that time period (wks 8-16) is a far more useful metric IMO. If the PIT starters had played week 17, it might have been more reason to believe it's applicable to the 2018 season.

 

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2 hours ago, Rolling Thunder said:

 

Here is what I have for JuJu over the last 7 regular season games he played in:

 

Week / Points*

 

  8 / 32.2

10 / 20.7

11 / 8.7

13 / 5.7

15 / 17.4

16 / 19.5

17 / 29.3

 

These points totals include a 2 pt bonus for 100 yd games, but other than that, they represent standard PPR scoring.

 

If I am doing my math right, the total for the 7 games is 133, or 19 PPG.  For the season, only Nuk (22.2) and AB (20.7) had higher PPG production than JuJu's PPG in the second half of the season.  Allen came in 3rd at 17.8 PPG.

 

How did I calculate JuJu's PPG over the last 7 games that he played wrong?    

 

Rolling...he's no Amari Cooper (good thing)

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1 hour ago, psygolf said:

Rolling...he's no Amari Cooper (good thing)

If A. Brown goes down Juju becomes a top5 WR.

 

Amari Cooper needs to take a taxi to catch a bus.

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2 hours ago, joshua18 said:

 

You're counting week 17 which you shouldn't -- no Big Ben, AB or Bell; it was basically a preseason game that helped no FFL owners. That's the biggest difference. 

 

PPG doesn't help when you miss games -- its cherry picking. Those weeks 12 and 14 he missed were crucial to seasons, which is why total points over that time period (wks 8-16) is a far more useful metric IMO. If the PIT starters had played week 17, it might have been more reason to believe it's applicable to the 2018 season.

 

 

I have to admit, you lost me with this post.

 

Ok, if you drop week 17 (who's "cherry picking" now ??), you get 17.5 PPG over 6 games played, which would leave him #5 (instead of #3).  Still top tier.

 

Also, my post focused slowly on his production when he plays.  The fact that he did not play in a few games in the second half of last season is neither here nor there.  If you're suggesting JuJu can't be counted on to be durable, so it doesn't matter how productive he is when he plays, then that's fodder for a different post.

 

And did you mean to say "PPG doesn't help when you miss games"???  I thought that is exactly what it's for?

 

Anyway, I'm not auditioning to be JuJu's agent.  I'm just asking where folks are thinking they'll slot him in PPR compared to the other guys I listed.

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 Juju should be behind all those on the list (except maybe Jeffrey who may not be ready week 1 recovering from shoulder surgery) unless AB misses significant time and Bryant remains irrelevant. 

 

The week 17 game was meaningless, and without it Juju is a low-ceiling WR2/WR3 at best.

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8 minutes ago, Rolling Thunder said:

 

I have to admit, you lost me with this post.

 

Ok, if you drop week 17 (who's "cherry picking" now ??), you get 17.5 PPG over 6 games played, which would leave him #5 (instead of #3).  Still top tier.

 

Also, my post focused slowly on his production when he plays.  The fact that he did not play in a few games in the second half of last season is neither here nor there.  If you're suggesting JuJu can't be counted on to be durable, so it doesn't matter how productive he is when he plays, then that's fodder for a different post.

 

And did you mean to say "PPG doesn't help when you miss games"???  I thought that is exactly what it's for?

 

Anyway, I'm not auditioning to be JuJu's agent.  I'm just asking where folks are thinking they'll slot him in PPR compared to the other guys I listed.

 

8 minutes ago, Rolling Thunder said:

 

I have to admit, you lost me with this post.

 

Ok, if you drop week 17 (who's "cherry picking" now ??), you get 17.5 PPG over 6 games played, which would leave him #5 (instead of #3).  Still top tier.

 

Also, my post focused slowly on his production when he plays.  The fact that he did not play in a few games in the second half of last season is neither here nor there.  If you're suggesting JuJu can't be counted on to be durable, so it doesn't matter how productive he is when he plays, then that's fodder for a different post.

 

And did you mean to say "PPG doesn't help when you miss games"???  I thought that is exactly what it's for?

 

Anyway, I'm not auditioning to be JuJu's agent.  I'm just asking where folks are thinking they'll slot him in PPR compared to the other guys I listed.

There is a huge variance of where Juju is being drafted.  In 12 person PPR he’s going anywhere from the 6th to 9th rounds.  The more humans picking in the mock drafts results in Juju getting taken earlier.

 

Juju is getting taken later than all the guys you mentioned.  You’re going to need to know your league...  Do people draft by ADP or do they ignore it and do their own thing?  If they follow ADP he’s getting taken around Woods, which is stupid cheap.

 

Whatever Juju’s ADP ends up, I’m taking him one round before that to ensure that I get him.  

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“Those are just my first thoughts.  I have others.”

 

lmao

 

 

anyone else just down on the WR group as a whole this year? Me personally I like a lot of mid/late round wrs and the same can’t be said for rbs. So ideally I’ll be going rb in 2 of the first 3 rounds so that I don’t get stuck banking on some rbbc guy for an rb2 

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Posted (edited)
43 minutes ago, Panthers8912 said:

“Those are just my first thoughts.  I have others.”

 

lmao

 

 

anyone else just down on the WR group as a whole this year? Me personally I like a lot of mid/late round wrs and the same can’t be said for rbs. So ideally I’ll be going rb in 2 of the first 3 rounds so that I don’t get stuck banking on some rbbc guy for an rb2 

 

 

i think alot of people who dont own AB will be unhappy with their wr1 and even more with their wr2. Not alot of guys are going to get 15 targets a game

Edited by dashoe

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2 hours ago, Panthers8912 said:

“Those are just my first thoughts.  I have others.”

 

lmao

 

 

anyone else just down on the WR group as a whole this year? Me personally I like a lot of mid/late round wrs and the same can’t be said for rbs. So ideally I’ll be going rb in 2 of the first 3 rounds so that I don’t get stuck banking on some rbbc guy for an rb2 

 

This is exactly what ive been doing in early mocks. RB is a disaster afterwards. Ive typically gone 3 RBs straight in mocks.

 

i see alot of early talk about DT. is everyone forgetting about Emmaunel Sanders though ? Hes been going late in drafts and looks like a screaming value. Lets not forget before last years debacle. He had 3 consecutive 1000+ yd/ 5+ TD seasons. I think keenum is certainly competent enough to feed both DT and Sanders. their passing tree is very skinny out there. 

 

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14 hours ago, Panthers8912 said:

anyone else just down on the WR group as a whole this year? Me personally I like a lot of mid/late round wrs and the same can’t be said for rbs. So ideally I’ll be going rb in 2 of the first 3 rounds so that I don’t get stuck banking on some rbbc guy for an rb2 

 

I dont like much in the WR9 to 20ish group, so I plan to get one that's above that line, then pass on the lot for a couple rounds, stocking up on RB's.

 

In that shy away group, i love Fitzgerald and always seem to get him, but I think this is the year people finally price him right.  I'm also willing to take a shot at Diggs or Thielen if either is avail in the WR17/18 range.

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