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Rolling Thunder

2018 WR Rankings and Discussion

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2 minutes ago, cohenstantinople said:

 

 

I like AB as the #1, but I wouldn't begrudge anyone from choosing Nuk over AB. The 26-year old was too focused, too on fire, and seemingly QB-proof, and his work ethic rivals AB's.

Did 2016 not happen now?

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Posted (edited)
27 minutes ago, RMJ_12 said:

Did 2016 not happen now?

 

No, it did not.

 

Neither did it happen for Todd Gurley.

Edited by cohenstantinople

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how often does AB finish 1st in standard? Seems like he's always 2nd to me. Don't flame me if he's been 1st for the past 20 years though 

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1 hour ago, Panthers8912 said:

Anyone else not sure browns the number 1 wr in standard? Think Hopkins and Odell score more tds 

 

Brown is the Mike Trout of WRs. There's no reason he shouldn't be the first WR off the board once again.

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Posted (edited)
20 minutes ago, Panthers8912 said:

how often does AB finish 1st in standard? Seems like he's always 2nd to me. Don't flame me if he's been 1st for the past 20 years though 

How often does he finish outside of the top 3?  Can't say the same about anyone except for maybe Odell.

Edited by RMJ_12

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Posted (edited)
1 hour ago, RMJ_12 said:

How often does he finish outside of the top 3?  Can't say the same about anyone except for maybe Odell.

 

exactly, he's a very safe pick and a virtual lock to be top 3 again. Would you hold it against someone for choosing hopkins over him though?

 

Also, I really don't trust Ben this year and he always has those annoying home/ away splits too. If both ben and watson stay healthy I feel like hopkins is more likely to finish wr1 than brown. Now the IF is obviously a concern, which is why AB gets drafted first

Edited by Panthers8912

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You're trying way too hard if you want to nitpick your way into convincing yourself not to take Antonio Brown as the first WR off the board. Take him and enjoy your 120/1400/10 season at a minimum.

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Updated Standard Ranks:

 

Tier 1 - Top 5

1 Antonio Brown - the safest player in all of fantasy and on par with the top RBs

Tier 2 - Round 1/2

2 Julio Jones - elite yardage totals + logic tells you the TDs will improve

3 OBJ - always produces when healthy

4 DeAndre Hopkins - not sure how he does it with his skill set but targets should continue to be there

5 Michael Thomas - similar to Julio in that the yardage floor is very high and should get more TDs

6 Davante Adams - combines the upside of turning into the new Jordy with an awesome TD floor as a locked in starting outside WR for ARod

7 AJ Green - inconsistent but I think the entire Bengals offense rebounds this year

8 Keenan Allen - Hunter Henry's ACL injury helps solidify his target share but injury concerns still linger although most of his injuries can be written off as flukey

9 Mike Evans - still very inefficient with his targets but could be a huge steal at this spot

Tier 3 - Round 3

10 TY Hilton - this is assuming that Luck is coming back, absolutely love grabbing him in the 3rd as he's locked in for huge target numbers for Andrew Luck

11 Doug Baldwin - a little disappointing last year but still has a solid floor, Jimmy Graham's redzone targets opened up, and I think SEA could have a lot of favorable game scripts with the declining defense

12 Amari Cooper - Crabtree's targets just left + seems like Gruden wants to build the passing attack around him

13 Stefon Diggs - flashes awesome ability and good production, he has big breakout potential with Cousins.

14 Adam Thielen - I believe in Diggs' talent more than Thielen hence his placement below Diggs. However, i've heard many NFL analysts say that if you watch MIN's offense he's the clear #1 WR target.

15 Tyreek Hill - the Watkins addition scares me a little but he's shown that he can produce on low target numbers. Plus, I think he's so dynamic that he demands usage in any offense.

Tier 4

16 Alshon Jeffery - production was mostly TD dependent last year but still the #1 WR on a great offense and received 120 targets last year

17 Marvin Jones - looked like he established a great rapport with Stafford last year and I think he has Stafford's trust. Seemed like he was developing into their #1 WR last year

18 Sammy Watkins - I can't seem to quit him, year after year. I totally believe in his talent + he is now in the best situation of his career by far.

19 Golden Tate - situation shouldn't change

20 Larry Fitzgerald - the offense terrifies me but still put up numbers last year without Palmer and Bradford likes his underneath targets.

21 Allen Robinson - I'm fading him this year as the track record of WRs changing teams isn't great. Has to learn a new offense, coming off a torn ACL, and playing with unproven Trubisky. Huge upside is still there as just a few years ago he looked like the next elite WR

22 Josh Gordon - I would have him higher but for his QB situation. I don't think Tyrod is capable of supporting Gordon and Landry plus I don't necessarily trust a rookie QB either.

23 JuJu Smith - lots of his production came on single plays but is playing on a hugely productive offense. Not sure how much upside is there with AB and LeVeon eating up so many targets.

24 Brandin Cooks - the potential of a Sammy Watkins like role is terrifying but hard to ignore his production thus far

25 Chris Hogan - one of my favorite targets right now. Very productive when he played last year and there are huge target opportunities for one of the most productive offenses in the NFL with Brandin Cooks and Amendola gone + Edelman out for the first 4 games

26 Pierre Garcon - At least 1 WR for SF is going to be a gigantic value this year and right now it looks like Garcon. Before his injury he was receiving huge target volume and was on pace for 80/1000/0 without Jimmy G. The X receiver role for Shanahan is incredibly valuable and I have a hard time seeing anyone else on the roster who fits that mold.

27 Michael Crabtree - still a reliable target and should be the #1 WR for BAL

28 Robert Woods - good value right now but risk if Cooks gets a bigger role than Watkins did

29 Demaryius Thomas - still receiving huge target volume and should have a better QB. However, I'm not ready to buy into Keenum after 1 year and watching DT the last few years I think he's significantly declined. I'd rather get Emmanuel Sanders at a much cheaper price.

30 Emmanuel Sanders - love the talent and he's who I want when betting on a DEN rebound.

31 Jarvis Landry - I'll move him significantly higher in PPR. I think his decline is being overstated as he still has a solid target floor because he gets separation so quickly.

Tier 5

32 Julian Edelman - I think he comes in and resumes his old role/production once he's back

33 Devante Parker - still believe in the talent + opportunity is there with Landry gone. Just needs to stay healthy and the upside is enough for me to take the jump here

34 Corey Davis - upside play as hopeful #1 WR for young QB on hopefully improving offense

35 Kelvin Benjamin - the #1 WR on an offense

36 Devin Funchess - I think there is significant upside in the #1 WR for CAR but not sure if its him or Moore

37 DJ Moore - see above

37 Marquis Lee - see above

38 Robby Anderson - see above

39 Randall Cobb - I don't think he benefits that much from Jordy's absence as I think that production gets transferred more to Jimmy Graham + the other outside WR but the opportunity is still there

40 Jamison Crowder - not that much competition on the roster

41 Geronimo Allison - I won't actually draft him here as he's available much later but I absolutely love him. The #2 outside WR for ARod is one of the best TD opportunities in the entire NFL and it looks like Allison will take that spot. Just being on the field with ARod in 3 WR sets creates incredible TD upside. Plus whenever he filled in for Adams or Jordy he has produced. Legit 10 TD upside.

42 Sterling Shepard - quietly has been extremely productive over his last 2 years and was on pace for 85/1063/3 last year, albeit without OBJ. Upside capped with all the other targets.

43 Cooper Kupp - higher in PPR but don't see a big difference between him and Jamison Crowder

44 Allen Hurns - presumed #1 WR on an NFL offense

45 Will Fuller - maybe I should move him up a little higher in case I'm wrong but this is me taking a stance that I don't believe in his production last year

46 Martavis Bryant - suspension risk knocks him down a little but we know he's extremely physically talented + in a contract year + Gruden seems to love him. I'll move him up if the suspension rumor blows over

47 Nelson Agholor - not a ton of upside

48 Marquis Goodwin - cheap investment in the SF offense

49 Jordy Nelson - don't believe in him but maybe he can take on a Crabtree-like role and get a bunch of TDs

50 Tyler Lockett - possible post hype sleeper and Richardson is gone + SEA may have to throw a lot more

51 Kenny Stills - will almost certainly outproduce WR50 but in a non-best ball league you won't ever feel comfortable playing him + upside is capped

52 J'Mon Moore - see Geronimo Allison. Huge opportunity and if he doesnt hit you can drop him quickly

53 Quincy Enunwa - post hype sleeper + Robby Anderson's off field concerns + I think the Jets offense has some potential with Darnold

54 Kenny Golliday - I'm not really buying in with Jones and Tate already there

55 Josh Doctson - maybe should be higher given the draft capital + target opportunity but I dont think he fits well with Alex Smith

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1 hour ago, GhostOfCap said:

Who did Will Fuller sleep with to get a 5th round ADP? This has to be a mistake, no?

Seems to be going 6th to 7th in mocks I do.  Have to expect people to reach for him with his track record for Watson.

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7 hours ago, GhostOfCap said:

Who did Will Fuller sleep with to get a 5th round ADP? This has to be a mistake, no?

People seem to expect that he's going to repeat the aberration 1.75 TD / game rate that he enjoyed with Watson.

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1 hour ago, FlashGordon401 said:

People seem to expect that he's going to repeat the aberration 1.75 TD / game rate that he enjoyed with Watson.

 

Or they're watching footage from Notre Dame.

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1 hour ago, FlashGordon401 said:

People seem to expect that he's going to repeat the aberration 1.75 TD / game rate that he enjoyed with Watson.

 

No, if they did, he'd be a 1st rd pick. 

 

He has plenty of room to regress and be a top-30 WR.

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11 hours ago, Chwf3rd said:

Updated Standard Ranks:

 

Tier 1 - Top 5

1 Antonio Brown - the safest player in all of fantasy and on par with the top RBs

Tier 2 - Round 1/2

2 Julio Jones - elite yardage totals + logic tells you the TDs will improve

3 OBJ - always produces when healthy

4 DeAndre Hopkins - not sure how he does it with his skill set but targets should continue to be there

5 Michael Thomas - similar to Julio in that the yardage floor is very high and should get more TDs

6 Davante Adams - combines the upside of turning into the new Jordy with an awesome TD floor as a locked in starting outside WR for ARod

7 AJ Green - inconsistent but I think the entire Bengals offense rebounds this year

8 Keenan Allen - Hunter Henry's ACL injury helps solidify his target share but injury concerns still linger although most of his injuries can be written off as flukey

9 Mike Evans - still very inefficient with his targets but could be a huge steal at this spot

Tier 3 - Round 3

10 TY Hilton - this is assuming that Luck is coming back, absolutely love grabbing him in the 3rd as he's locked in for huge target numbers for Andrew Luck

11 Doug Baldwin - a little disappointing last year but still has a solid floor, Jimmy Graham's redzone targets opened up, and I think SEA could have a lot of favorable game scripts with the declining defense

12 Amari Cooper - Crabtree's targets just left + seems like Gruden wants to build the passing attack around him

13 Stefon Diggs - flashes awesome ability and good production, he has big breakout potential with Cousins.

14 Adam Thielen - I believe in Diggs' talent more than Thielen hence his placement below Diggs. However, i've heard many NFL analysts say that if you watch MIN's offense he's the clear #1 WR target.

15 Tyreek Hill - the Watkins addition scares me a little but he's shown that he can produce on low target numbers. Plus, I think he's so dynamic that he demands usage in any offense.

Tier 4

16 Alshon Jeffery - production was mostly TD dependent last year but still the #1 WR on a great offense and received 120 targets last year

17 Marvin Jones - looked like he established a great rapport with Stafford last year and I think he has Stafford's trust. Seemed like he was developing into their #1 WR last year

18 Sammy Watkins - I can't seem to quit him, year after year. I totally believe in his talent + he is now in the best situation of his career by far.

19 Golden Tate - situation shouldn't change

20 Larry Fitzgerald - the offense terrifies me but still put up numbers last year without Palmer and Bradford likes his underneath targets.

21 Allen Robinson - I'm fading him this year as the track record of WRs changing teams isn't great. Has to learn a new offense, coming off a torn ACL, and playing with unproven Trubisky. Huge upside is still there as just a few years ago he looked like the next elite WR

22 Josh Gordon - I would have him higher but for his QB situation. I don't think Tyrod is capable of supporting Gordon and Landry plus I don't necessarily trust a rookie QB either.

23 JuJu Smith - lots of his production came on single plays but is playing on a hugely productive offense. Not sure how much upside is there with AB and LeVeon eating up so many targets.

24 Brandin Cooks - the potential of a Sammy Watkins like role is terrifying but hard to ignore his production thus far

25 Chris Hogan - one of my favorite targets right now. Very productive when he played last year and there are huge target opportunities for one of the most productive offenses in the NFL with Brandin Cooks and Amendola gone + Edelman out for the first 4 games

26 Pierre Garcon - At least 1 WR for SF is going to be a gigantic value this year and right now it looks like Garcon. Before his injury he was receiving huge target volume and was on pace for 80/1000/0 without Jimmy G. The X receiver role for Shanahan is incredibly valuable and I have a hard time seeing anyone else on the roster who fits that mold.

27 Michael Crabtree - still a reliable target and should be the #1 WR for BAL

28 Robert Woods - good value right now but risk if Cooks gets a bigger role than Watkins did

29 Demaryius Thomas - still receiving huge target volume and should have a better QB. However, I'm not ready to buy into Keenum after 1 year and watching DT the last few years I think he's significantly declined. I'd rather get Emmanuel Sanders at a much cheaper price.

30 Emmanuel Sanders - love the talent and he's who I want when betting on a DEN rebound.

31 Jarvis Landry - I'll move him significantly higher in PPR. I think his decline is being overstated as he still has a solid target floor because he gets separation so quickly.

Tier 5

32 Julian Edelman - I think he comes in and resumes his old role/production once he's back

33 Devante Parker - still believe in the talent + opportunity is there with Landry gone. Just needs to stay healthy and the upside is enough for me to take the jump here

34 Corey Davis - upside play as hopeful #1 WR for young QB on hopefully improving offense

35 Kelvin Benjamin - the #1 WR on an offense

36 Devin Funchess - I think there is significant upside in the #1 WR for CAR but not sure if its him or Moore

37 DJ Moore - see above

37 Marquis Lee - see above

38 Robby Anderson - see above

39 Randall Cobb - I don't think he benefits that much from Jordy's absence as I think that production gets transferred more to Jimmy Graham + the other outside WR but the opportunity is still there

40 Jamison Crowder - not that much competition on the roster

41 Geronimo Allison - I won't actually draft him here as he's available much later but I absolutely love him. The #2 outside WR for ARod is one of the best TD opportunities in the entire NFL and it looks like Allison will take that spot. Just being on the field with ARod in 3 WR sets creates incredible TD upside. Plus whenever he filled in for Adams or Jordy he has produced. Legit 10 TD upside.

42 Sterling Shepard - quietly has been extremely productive over his last 2 years and was on pace for 85/1063/3 last year, albeit without OBJ. Upside capped with all the other targets.

43 Cooper Kupp - higher in PPR but don't see a big difference between him and Jamison Crowder

44 Allen Hurns - presumed #1 WR on an NFL offense

45 Will Fuller - maybe I should move him up a little higher in case I'm wrong but this is me taking a stance that I don't believe in his production last year

46 Martavis Bryant - suspension risk knocks him down a little but we know he's extremely physically talented + in a contract year + Gruden seems to love him. I'll move him up if the suspension rumor blows over

47 Nelson Agholor - not a ton of upside

48 Marquis Goodwin - cheap investment in the SF offense

49 Jordy Nelson - don't believe in him but maybe he can take on a Crabtree-like role and get a bunch of TDs

50 Tyler Lockett - possible post hype sleeper and Richardson is gone + SEA may have to throw a lot more

51 Kenny Stills - will almost certainly outproduce WR50 but in a non-best ball league you won't ever feel comfortable playing him + upside is capped

52 J'Mon Moore - see Geronimo Allison. Huge opportunity and if he doesnt hit you can drop him quickly

53 Quincy Enunwa - post hype sleeper + Robby Anderson's off field concerns + I think the Jets offense has some potential with Darnold

54 Kenny Golliday - I'm not really buying in with Jones and Tate already there

55 Josh Doctson - maybe should be higher given the draft capital + target opportunity but I dont think he fits well with Alex Smith

 

In standard, Adams is easily a top-3 WR IMO. Highest TD floor in the league, and has already done it without Rodgers at QB. 

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2 minutes ago, joshua18 said:

 

No, if they did, he'd be a 1st rd pick. 

 

He has plenty of room to regress and be a top-30 WR.

 

Agreed. If you’re choosing the second WR on a team—Shepard, Lockett, Agholor—you could do a lot worse than Fuller, and there’s a good chance he’ll beat out #1 WRs on a handful of teams (assuming he and Watson stay healthy).

 

As of now, hard to see the second WR/targets on some teams (KC, LA, TEN, NE, JAX, CLE, DAL, +), for different reasons, and yet there are solid #2s maintaining ADP while Fuller ascends (JuJu, Sanders, Stills).

 

Considering the lack of developed TE talent in Houston, the apparent talent at QB, the hype that will keep coming, I wouldn’t be surprised to find Fuller’s ADP neck-and-neck with JuJu come mid-August.

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Really having trouble ranking guys in the Baldwin-Hilton-Cooper-Diggs-Fitz tier. I'm a lot higher on Cooper, but my rankings for those 5 change daily. 

 

I think what I have right now is:

Hilton (assuming Luck is a full participant)

Cooper

Baldwin

Fitz

Diggs 

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9 hours ago, GhostOfCap said:

Who did Will Fuller sleep with to get a 5th round ADP? This has to be a mistake, no?

 

High risk guy, but high reward as well.   There's no way he turns half his catches into TD's like he did those few weeks with Watson last year, but if that pair is healthy in 2018, with a full camp to practice together, they've got massive potential.    

 

In that tiering ranking the guy above posted, I love Fuller in the early 30's.   Bust potential is there, but i see it in all the guys in that range, and I feel great about his ceiling.    

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29 minutes ago, afl5013 said:

Really having trouble ranking guys in the Baldwin-Hilton-Cooper-Diggs-Fitz tier. I'm a lot higher on Cooper, but my rankings for those 5 change daily. 

 

I think what I have right now is:

Hilton (assuming Luck is a full participant)

Cooper

Baldwin

Fitz

Diggs 

Baldwin #1

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thoughts on James Washington?

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45 minutes ago, cdd10 said:

thoughts on James Washington?

I hope he’s trash and doesn’t do well with the Steelers and steal targets away from JuJu. 

 

-Every JuJu owner 

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5 minutes ago, boshtrich17 said:

I hope he’s trash and doesn’t do well with the Steelers and steal targets away from JuJu. 

 

-Every JuJu owner 

 

Same thing Martavis owners were saying about JuJu this time last year...

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Posted (edited)
18 minutes ago, joshua18 said:

 

Same thing Martavis owners were saying about JuJu this time last year...

Lol i know i was an ex Bryant owner and now current Juju 14th round keeper owner. I was scared then and scared now 

Edited by boshtrich17

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14 hours ago, Chwf3rd said:

2 Julio Jones - elite yardage totals + logic tells you the TDs will improve

What logic is this? His one season with double digit TDs? His 6 TD average per season? There is no indication that his TDs will improve to a number that is worthy of a #2 ranking. Don't make the mistake of overdrafting him again.

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On June 27, 2018 at 11:23 AM, Panthers8912 said:

how often does AB finish 1st in standard? Seems like he's always 2nd to me. Don't flame me if he's been 1st for the past 20 years though 

You have 100 beans in a jar. 40 red, 25 green, 20 blue, and 15 orange. You bet $100 that orange will be the bean picked out of the jar. You win.

 

 

You're still an idiot. 

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