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2018 WR Rankings and Discussion

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14 minutes ago, Gohawks said:

What logic is this? His one season with double digit TDs? His 6 TD average per season? There is no indication that his TDs will improve to a number that is worthy of a #2 ranking. Don't make the mistake of overdrafting him again.

 

He was 11th in targets inside the 20 and 4th in targets inside the 10.  I refuse to believe there is something inherit about a 6’3/220lb WR that makes him bad in the red zone, just like if I flipped a coin 5 times and it landed on heads every time I wouldn’t think that coin is more prone to turn heads.

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14 hours ago, Chwf3rd said:

Updated Standard Ranks:

 

Tier 1 - Top 5

1 Antonio Brown - the safest player in all of fantasy and on par with the top RBs

Tier 2 - Round 1/2

2 Julio Jones - elite yardage totals + logic tells you the TDs will improve

3 OBJ - always produces when healthy

4 DeAndre Hopkins - not sure how he does it with his skill set but targets should continue to be there

5 Michael Thomas - similar to Julio in that the yardage floor is very high and should get more TDs

6 Davante Adams - combines the upside of turning into the new Jordy with an awesome TD floor as a locked in starting outside WR for ARod

7 AJ Green - inconsistent but I think the entire Bengals offense rebounds this year

8 Keenan Allen - Hunter Henry's ACL injury helps solidify his target share but injury concerns still linger although most of his injuries can be written off as flukey

9 Mike Evans - still very inefficient with his targets but could be a huge steal at this spot

Tier 3 - Round 3

10 TY Hilton - this is assuming that Luck is coming back, absolutely love grabbing him in the 3rd as he's locked in for huge target numbers for Andrew Luck

11 Doug Baldwin - a little disappointing last year but still has a solid floor, Jimmy Graham's redzone targets opened up, and I think SEA could have a lot of favorable game scripts with the declining defense

12 Amari Cooper - Crabtree's targets just left + seems like Gruden wants to build the passing attack around him

13 Stefon Diggs - flashes awesome ability and good production, he has big breakout potential with Cousins.

14 Adam Thielen - I believe in Diggs' talent more than Thielen hence his placement below Diggs. However, i've heard many NFL analysts say that if you watch MIN's offense he's the clear #1 WR target.

15 Tyreek Hill - the Watkins addition scares me a little but he's shown that he can produce on low target numbers. Plus, I think he's so dynamic that he demands usage in any offense.

Tier 4

16 Alshon Jeffery - production was mostly TD dependent last year but still the #1 WR on a great offense and received 120 targets last year

17 Marvin Jones - looked like he established a great rapport with Stafford last year and I think he has Stafford's trust. Seemed like he was developing into their #1 WR last year

18 Sammy Watkins - I can't seem to quit him, year after year. I totally believe in his talent + he is now in the best situation of his career by far.

19 Golden Tate - situation shouldn't change

20 Larry Fitzgerald - the offense terrifies me but still put up numbers last year without Palmer and Bradford likes his underneath targets.

21 Allen Robinson - I'm fading him this year as the track record of WRs changing teams isn't great. Has to learn a new offense, coming off a torn ACL, and playing with unproven Trubisky. Huge upside is still there as just a few years ago he looked like the next elite WR

22 Josh Gordon - I would have him higher but for his QB situation. I don't think Tyrod is capable of supporting Gordon and Landry plus I don't necessarily trust a rookie QB either.

23 JuJu Smith - lots of his production came on single plays but is playing on a hugely productive offense. Not sure how much upside is there with AB and LeVeon eating up so many targets.

24 Brandin Cooks - the potential of a Sammy Watkins like role is terrifying but hard to ignore his production thus far

25 Chris Hogan - one of my favorite targets right now. Very productive when he played last year and there are huge target opportunities for one of the most productive offenses in the NFL with Brandin Cooks and Amendola gone + Edelman out for the first 4 games

26 Pierre Garcon - At least 1 WR for SF is going to be a gigantic value this year and right now it looks like Garcon. Before his injury he was receiving huge target volume and was on pace for 80/1000/0 without Jimmy G. The X receiver role for Shanahan is incredibly valuable and I have a hard time seeing anyone else on the roster who fits that mold.

27 Michael Crabtree - still a reliable target and should be the #1 WR for BAL

28 Robert Woods - good value right now but risk if Cooks gets a bigger role than Watkins did

29 Demaryius Thomas - still receiving huge target volume and should have a better QB. However, I'm not ready to buy into Keenum after 1 year and watching DT the last few years I think he's significantly declined. I'd rather get Emmanuel Sanders at a much cheaper price.

30 Emmanuel Sanders - love the talent and he's who I want when betting on a DEN rebound.

31 Jarvis Landry - I'll move him significantly higher in PPR. I think his decline is being overstated as he still has a solid target floor because he gets separation so quickly.

Tier 5

32 Julian Edelman - I think he comes in and resumes his old role/production once he's back

33 Devante Parker - still believe in the talent + opportunity is there with Landry gone. Just needs to stay healthy and the upside is enough for me to take the jump here

34 Corey Davis - upside play as hopeful #1 WR for young QB on hopefully improving offense

35 Kelvin Benjamin - the #1 WR on an offense

36 Devin Funchess - I think there is significant upside in the #1 WR for CAR but not sure if its him or Moore

37 DJ Moore - see above

37 Marquis Lee - see above

38 Robby Anderson - see above

39 Randall Cobb - I don't think he benefits that much from Jordy's absence as I think that production gets transferred more to Jimmy Graham + the other outside WR but the opportunity is still there

40 Jamison Crowder - not that much competition on the roster

41 Geronimo Allison - I won't actually draft him here as he's available much later but I absolutely love him. The #2 outside WR for ARod is one of the best TD opportunities in the entire NFL and it looks like Allison will take that spot. Just being on the field with ARod in 3 WR sets creates incredible TD upside. Plus whenever he filled in for Adams or Jordy he has produced. Legit 10 TD upside.

42 Sterling Shepard - quietly has been extremely productive over his last 2 years and was on pace for 85/1063/3 last year, albeit without OBJ. Upside capped with all the other targets.

43 Cooper Kupp - higher in PPR but don't see a big difference between him and Jamison Crowder

44 Allen Hurns - presumed #1 WR on an NFL offense

45 Will Fuller - maybe I should move him up a little higher in case I'm wrong but this is me taking a stance that I don't believe in his production last year

46 Martavis Bryant - suspension risk knocks him down a little but we know he's extremely physically talented + in a contract year + Gruden seems to love him. I'll move him up if the suspension rumor blows over

47 Nelson Agholor - not a ton of upside

48 Marquis Goodwin - cheap investment in the SF offense

49 Jordy Nelson - don't believe in him but maybe he can take on a Crabtree-like role and get a bunch of TDs

50 Tyler Lockett - possible post hype sleeper and Richardson is gone + SEA may have to throw a lot more

51 Kenny Stills - will almost certainly outproduce WR50 but in a non-best ball league you won't ever feel comfortable playing him + upside is capped

52 J'Mon Moore - see Geronimo Allison. Huge opportunity and if he doesnt hit you can drop him quickly

53 Quincy Enunwa - post hype sleeper + Robby Anderson's off field concerns + I think the Jets offense has some potential with Darnold

54 Kenny Golliday - I'm not really buying in with Jones and Tate already there

55 Josh Doctson - maybe should be higher given the draft capital + target opportunity but I dont think he fits well with Alex Smith

 

 

WR1s (top 12) - Get at least one of these guys in the 1st 4 rounds

1 - AB, ODB, Nuke, Devante Adams: Lots of yards and TDs on a weekly basis

2 - Julio (Sarkisian), Thomas (running game), AJ Green, TY (weekly boom/bust): Less consistent than the first group on a weekly basis

3 - Evans (Winston suspension), Allen (Tyrell Williams spells Henry), Baldwin, Alshon Jeffrey (end of year-post season/#1 offense/safe floor): lower yards/TDs. WR1s by ranking only (top 12)

 

WR2s (next 12)

4 - Everyone else is pretty much the same....like the next 30-40 guys.  Nit pick all you want.  Replace Jeffery with anyone you want.  Doesn't really matter.  Some weeks they get lots of yards.  Other weeks someone else gets lots of TDs.  Don't waste your time trying to figure it out.  Load up on RBs instead.

 

I prefer drafting at the end of the first round....everyone else grabs their favorite bust pick making my choice far less biased.  Ideally, I'd go RB late first, DeVante early second, RB late 3rd, Jeffery early 4th, RB 5th, RB 6th.  7-9 are typically TE+2WRs: make some educated guesses.  First 11 0r 12 QBs are gone by the 10th round: again, I'm not making a biased QB selection based on hope and conjecture.  Also, if your QB sucks, a 10th round pick is super easy to jettison; 4th round QBs, not so much.   11-16th grab the flashy rookies from preseason games.  I told everyone else to get Kamara last year after he went undrafted.  I got Ingram cheap and was hoping Kamara wouldn't be a stud. Bias sucks. 

 

Streaming RBs and WRs based on opponents wins a lot of weekly point titles and keeps you in the hunt when your best players go down.  This draft strategy is killer.  Don't hesitate picking up the WRs on waivers who everyone is saying "who the eF is this guy?"  He typically ends up being a legit WR2.  Get two of those guys.  Forget the guys you thought would be putting up their numbers.  That's a good way to lose.

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3 minutes ago, Chwf3rd said:

 

He was 11th in targets inside the 20 and 4th in targets inside the 10.  I refuse to believe there is something inherit about a 6’3/220lb WR that makes him bad in the red zone, just like if I flipped a coin 5 times and it landed on heads every time I wouldn’t think that coin is more prone to turn heads.

Yeah but at a certain point of a guys career he is what he is.  Jones has shown to be a yardage monster that will never full fill his TD potential.  For some reason he just doesn't win that much one on one in the end zone.  

 

http://www.nfl.com/videos/nfl-game-highlights/0ap3000000905968/Eagles-make-pivotal-fourth-down-stop-as-ball-goes-through-Julio-s-hands-in-end-zone

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2 minutes ago, youngrice said:

Yeah but at a certain point of a guys career he is what he is.  Jones has shown to be a yardage monster that will never full fill his TD potential.  For some reason he just doesn't win that much one on one in the end zone.  

 

http://www.nfl.com/videos/nfl-game-highlights/0ap3000000905968/Eagles-make-pivotal-fourth-down-stop-as-ball-goes-through-Julio-s-hands-in-end-zone

 

Yes,

Atlanta's RBs score most of their TDs in the red zone.  With Sarkisian calling the plays, they score fewer TDs. 

When Shanahan left, offensive scoring went from first to worst.

Julio has never been effective in the red zone his entire career.  No reason to believe this year will be different.  Nothing has changed. 

There is the whole "contract holdout" thing though.  That never helps.

 

He does get 200 yards in lots of game though.  That's why he's still a WR1.  Assuming he plays and isn't injured from his holdout.

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2 hours ago, Gohawks said:

You have 100 beans in a jar. 40 red, 25 green, 20 blue, and 15 orange. You bet $100 that orange will be the bean picked out of the jar. You win.

 

 

You're still an idiot. 

That’s not very nice to say

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58 minutes ago, Panthers8912 said:

That’s not very nice to say

I’m saying you in the general sense not directing it at anyone.

 

My point is, Brown isn’t 50%+ likely to be WR1 but he is the most likely.

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10 hours ago, afl5013 said:

Really having trouble ranking guys in the Baldwin-Hilton-Cooper-Diggs-Fitz tier. I'm a lot higher on Cooper, but my rankings for those 5 change daily. 

 

I think what I have right now is:

Hilton (assuming Luck is a full participant)

Cooper

Baldwin

Fitz

Diggs 

 

10 hours ago, RMJ_12 said:

Baldwin #1

 

I agree with @RMJ_12

 

In most tiers/groupings you can make an argument for all of the above, if you take out Baldwin you definitely can IMO. I'm just going of the top of my head but Graham and Paul Richardson have left. in 2015 when Graham was hurt Baldwin put up one of the better halves of football for a WR, Seattle should pass as much as last 3 years but likely more and he produced.

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1 hour ago, turner46 said:

 

 

I agree with @RMJ_12

 

In most tiers/groupings you can make an argument for all of the above, if you take out Baldwin you definitely can IMO. I'm just going of the top of my head but Graham and Paul Richardson have left. in 2015 when Graham was hurt Baldwin put up one of the better halves of football for a WR, Seattle should pass as much as last 3 years but likely more and he produced.

 

And they’ve replaced them with.... BMarsh? Yeah, last year was sour for Baldwin owners... but as a sore Baldwin owner, my memories are of Richardson and Graham having frustratingly good games in those Baldwin stinkers. Those guys are both gone now.

 

First mock I did when the opportunity to take Baldwin came up I passed because of how frustrating he was. But after that I thought about it rationally and moved him up my board. And I think that initial reaction is why he’s a good ADP value imo

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