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Scott Kingery 2018 Outlook

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2 hours ago, CORTEz said:

The Phillies easily have multiple players who Kingery can probably easily beat out.

 

Franco to me, is a horrible hitter...I'm guessing we'll see him have another .240 BA season...

 

I'm not at all sold of JP Crawford either...Crawford would have to get off to a tremendous start to hold off Kingery from stealing starts at SS.

 

And Nick Williams to me is still a ? mark. He had a solid first season, but who knows what happens there.

 

So I think there's a good chance you'll see Kingery in the lineup 3 outa every 4 or 5 games to start. Could end up being every day if he starts mashing like he's been doing.

 

To me...(again this might just be a pipe dream from a Kingery owner), but the Phillies would be smart to deploy a starting lineup similar to this:

 

1) Cesar Hernandez

2) Scott Kingery

3) Carlos Santana

4) Rhys Hoskins

5) Odubel Herrera

6) Aaron Altherr/Nick Williams

7) Maikel Franco

8) Jorge Alfaro

 

We'll see what happens.

 

Fantasy baseball isn't the same as Real baseball.  I know, shocking revelation.  I noticed your proposed Phillies lineup excludes their defensive position.

 

I don't think Kingery has the defensive tools a MLB team looks for in the demanding SS position.  Heck, while we're at it lets give Kingery some starts at Catcher as his bat is better than Alfaro's.

 

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1 hour ago, FootballFan101 said:

 

More like Babe Ruth and Ty Cobb rolled into one.

 

It's pretty comical reading some of these predictions saying that his floor is 30HR and 30 SB (something zero MLB players did last year and something Kingery didn't even do in the minors last year)

Where did anyone say his floor was 30-30?! Haha I agree some of the expectations are pretty aggressive, but don’t just make stuff up to get your point across.

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1 hour ago, jb_power said:

 

Fantasy baseball isn't the same as Real baseball.  I know, shocking revelation.  I noticed your proposed Phillies lineup excludes their defensive position.

 

I don't think Kingery has the defensive tools a MLB team looks for in the demanding SS position.  Heck, while we're at it lets give Kingery some starts at Catcher as his bat is better than Alfaro's.

 

 

Most fantasy owners only look at stats and completely forget about defense. Crawford has the potential to be a Gold Glove SS. The Phillies were a bottom 10 defense last year and putting Hoskins in the OF and Kingery possibly at SS isn't going to improve that defense. Defensively they have three good players: Crawford, Hernandez and Herrera.  

 

Franco is the one that is easiest to replace. He hasn't been hitting and his defense at 3B is below average.

 

 

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JP Crawford hit .214 with no power last year..but still ended up with a .356 OBP and bring plus defense at short. Franco is the obvious guy who suffers the most for PT. Kingery brings tangible upgrades both defense and offense

 

Re: Kingerys SB's.  Lots of guys fail to come close to their MILB SB totals in the majors because catchers/pitchers are just so much better defending the run. Springer/Eaton were 40 SB guys in the upper minors and neither have sniffed that total.

 

 So hearing the news about the Phillies confidence in his speed/encouragement?  This counters the SB regression that was going to happen.  SB projections from guys with no MLB exp is very hard because MILB SB totals don't translate like K% and ISO do.  They can go the way of Eaton or the way of Goldschimdt(i.e. turn into a legit base runner at the MLB level) 

 

Right now to me, they just means he actually stands a chance to reach that MILB SB that he was otherwise going to regress hard in. Then add more SBs like 45. 

Edited by Slatykamora

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Kingery plays elite defense at 2nd so I think he could hold his own at SS a few games, but I wouldn't expect him to usurp JP. Best case scenario is he gets 10 games or so there and picks up SS elig.

Edited by Dirtywater97

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18 minutes ago, Dirtywater97 said:

Kingery plays elite defense at 2nd so I think he could hold his own at SS a few games, but I wouldn't expect him to usurp JP. Best case scenario is he gets 10 games or so there and picks up SS elig.

SS has been one of the several positions the Phillies have had him play, so it wouldn't surprise me if he does get the occasional time there (and possibly even enough to gain eligibility).

 

I said it a few days ago and others have now said it as well, and where he will likely get most of his playing time will be at 3B because Franco is easily the most expendable.  Crawford is still a big enough piece of their future that they wouldn't give up on him anytime soon.

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I honestly believe some of you guys are sorely mistaken on the playing time issue.  How often do we hear teams say their prospects are in AAA because they need to be playing everyday?  Why wouldn't that still apply here?  They just signed the kid to a 9 year deal (6 years + 3 team options).  You don't maximize that by only playing him 4 games a week.

 

I just think those of you saying that are looking at the situation completely backwards.  It's not who moves aside for Scott Kingery, it's who moves aside to keep Hernandez or Franco or Alther or Williams or whomever in the lineup.

 

Of those guys, Hernandez is easily the best player, so I'd imagine a good number of Kingery's starts come at positions other than 2B.  Crawford is a good defensive SS, but he probably loses a game a week to Kingery.  Hernandez probably loses a game a week to Kingery.  The easily identified weak links here are Franco and the Alther/Williams situation in the OF.  Those dudes are now part time players, not Scott Kingery.

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Kingery may get spot starts at SS when Crawford needs a day off or if he gets dinged up, but it's crazy talk for anyone to suggest that Kingery is going to replace Crawford at SS. That's looking purely through the lens of fantasy and not looking at the real game of baseball. Crawford won't be a great fantasy SS, but he's going to play very good defense and have a solid OBP for the Phils. 

 

I'm leaning toward what others are saying...the tea leaves are pointing towards Franco being the odd-man-out here. The Phillies aren't sitting Crawford's defense for Kingery. They aren't sitting a proven Hernandez for Kingery right now. Fitting him into the OF doesn't seem likely. But they signed him to a longterm contract and are bringing him to Philadelphia, and they aren't doing that to sit his keester on the bench. So who does he replace then? A very replaceable Maikel Franco. 

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I have to believe

Kingery is going to play 2B most everyday ... with a small mixture at 3B/OF

 

Hernandez is going to play SS with some mixing in at 2B when Kingery moves to 3B or OF 

 

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7 minutes ago, shakestreet said:

I have to believe

Kingery is going to play 2B most everyday ... with a small mixture at 3B/OF

 

Hernandez is going to play SS with some mixing in at 2B when Kingery moves to 3B or OF 

 

No... 

 

Hernandez is a .370 OBP guy.  

 

Crawford is a plus defensive SS. 

 

If Kingery gets everyday time it's 3B

Edited by kittenmittons

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9 hours ago, CORTEz said:

 

 

You'll be eating those words WahooManiac. Quote me.

 

@handyandy86 - .270 BA, with 15 HRs and 15 SB will be his floor, IF he gets 450-500 ABs this season...If he only gets between 250-350...I'd say his floor will still be a .270 BA, with 8-10 HR/10 SB.

 

 

 

Like what @WahooManiac said, I think you're using the word "floor" as your prediction.  Even if he does end up going .270-15-15, that doesn't mean that was his floor.  A floor is the worst case scenario, and clearly worst case scenario for a rookie is that he's overmatched and goes back to AAA.  You can feel that's unlikely to happen and you project at least .270-15-15, but you can't call that someone's floor until you have a few years of MLB data to go on.  

 

It's also a bit of a cop out to base floor predictions on number of AB's.  If he ends up not looking ready for MLB pitching and hits .220 he'll probably get sent down after 150-200 AB's.

 

Either way I hope you're right in your predictions.  

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4 hours ago, Slatykamora said:

JP Crawford hit .214 with no power last year..but still ended up with a .356 OBP and bring plus defense at short. Franco is the obvious guy who suffers the most for PT. Kingery brings tangible upgrades both defense and offense

 

Re: Kingerys SB's.  Lots of guys fail to come close to their MILB SB totals in the majors because catchers/pitchers are just so much better defending the run. Springer/Eaton were 40 SB guys in the upper minors and neither have sniffed that total.

 

 So hearing the news about the Phillies confidence in his speed/encouragement?  This counters the SB regression that was going to happen.  SB projections from guys with no MLB exp is very hard because MILB SB totals don't translate like K% and ISO do.  They can go the way of Eaton or the way of Goldschimdt(i.e. turn into a legit base runner at the MLB level) 

 

Right now to me, they just means he actually stands a chance to reach that MILB SB that he was otherwise going to regress hard in. Then add more SBs like 45. 

 

Stolen base totals may not translate well but when you combine success rate (King's 85%) with a large number of stolen bases (29), I believe you can accurately predict that the player will have a decent chance at impactful stolen base numbers (20+). 

 

Plus I'll leave this little quote:

"They introduced advanced stats, using terms Kingery knew little about. This was the new Phillies. The group talked to him about his baserunning and encouraged him to steal more bases. Kingery thought he has been a bit tentative and was told to take chances this spring and be aggressive. Kingery left the meeting feeling as if he could steal 45 bases this season." -- Philly.com

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11 hours ago, kittenmittons said:

No... 

 

Hernandez is a .370 OBP guy.  

 

Crawford is a plus defensive SS. 

 

If Kingery gets everyday time it's 3B

Exactly.  He will probably get the occasional start in several other places, and could even cut a game off of certain players that they would have gotten otherwise, but 3B is the likely destination if they decide to settle on playing him at one position everyday.  Honestly, it shouldn't be that hard unless Franco realizes this and puts in the extra effort.

 

Nobody truly knows how much playing time Kingery will get right away.  It is correct that it doesn't make much sense to keep him up if they aren't going to play him enough, but the contract affords them the option to not have to play him everyday if they choose not to.  Obviously I expect him to play enough since you still have to take into account the development aspect of it into play (him sitting the bench doesn't do anything good for his development regardless of service time not being an issue).

 

I've been really high on Kingery every since late last season and planned on drafting him in my keeper league even if he started the season in AAA.  I'm just not sure I'd take him right away in my 12 team keeper league (after the first 9 rounds of keepers get processed) over good players that are still out there.  If he is still there shortly after, then maybe.  It's been something I've been mulling ever since the contract was announced on Sunday.

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8 hours ago, Fenamo said:

 

Stolen base totals may not translate well but when you combine success rate (King's 85%) with a large number of stolen bases (29), I believe you can accurately predict that the player will have a decent chance at impactful stolen base numbers (20+). 

 

Plus I'll leave this little quote:

"They introduced advanced stats, using terms Kingery knew little about. This was the new Phillies. The group talked to him about his baserunning and encouraged him to steal more bases. Kingery thought he has been a bit tentative and was told to take chances this spring and be aggressive. Kingery left the meeting feeling as if he could steal 45 bases this season." -- Philly.com

 

I think that if the Phillies are using advanced metrics to decide this, it could change if doesn't translate to the bigs with a similar success rate.  

 

By SABR math, an SB is worth .2 runs and a CS is worth somewhere around -.4 runs so you have to be around 66% just to break even. 

 

I think teams factoring in SABR is largely responsible for the decline in MLB SBs. 

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13 hours ago, handyandy86 said:

 

Like what @WahooManiac said, I think you're using the word "floor" as your prediction.  Even if he does end up going .270-15-15, that doesn't mean that was his floor.  A floor is the worst case scenario, and clearly worst case scenario for a rookie is that he's overmatched and goes back to AAA.  You can feel that's unlikely to happen and you project at least .270-15-15, but you can't call that someone's floor until you have a few years of MLB data to go on.  

 

It's also a bit of a cop out to base floor predictions on number of AB's.  If he ends up not looking ready for MLB pitching and hits .220 he'll probably get sent down after 150-200 AB's.

 

Either way I hope you're right in your predictions.  

 

20 hours ago, WahooManiac said:

Sure, I'll quote ya! You seem to be confusing the word floor and prediction though.  ☺

I hope the kid hits well too

 

I hope my "predictions" are correct too.. Just to clear this up...When I say "floor", I mean just what you said. "his worst case scenario" if he gets 450-500 AB's this season.

 

What I called out, was my prediction as to what his "floor" would be if he gets 500 ABs. And to me, in the scenario of him getting 450-500 AB's this season, his "floor" would likely .270 BA, 15 HR, 15 SB.

 

I agree with what you guys are saying if I were to use "floor" as a generalistic term, but again, I don't think I used the term incorrectly seeing as how I mentioned what it would be if he were to get the ABs.

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[ Guys, probably best to step back from the "no, floor means *this* argument.] 

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When are people drafting Kingery now?  Forgive me if I missed it, but I searched "draft" in this thread and it didn't return any results.  Fantasy pros has him at 308, which I'm assuming hasn't adjusted much yet.

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3 minutes ago, Magoo said:

Went 69 in an NFBC draft today. That's a serious FOMO pick.

I'm a big Kingery guy, but that is just lunacy come on now...

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17 minutes ago, Magoo said:

Went 69 in an NFBC draft today. That's a serious FOMO pick.

 

That value is not nice.

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50 minutes ago, BALCO All-Stars said:

When are people drafting Kingery now?  Forgive me if I missed it, but I searched "draft" in this thread and it didn't return any results.  Fantasy pros has him at 308, which I'm assuming hasn't adjusted much yet.

 

faab in keepers May 2017 for $2  && 12th round in a 10 team redraft

Edited by ragrag

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