sportsfreak2744

Jordan Hicks 2018 Outlook

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Posted (edited)
27 minutes ago, Dwightevans said:

Reminds me of Joe Kelly when he was on the Cards. Threw 100 plus and couldn't buy a strikeout as a starter.  Kelly has added that change up which has increased his K/9 and I would imagine it will take a better second pitch to do the same for Hicks.

 

Not a bad comp. for a hard thrower that didn't k a lot. But wasn't Kelly's problem a lack of movement on the fastball?  I might be wrong on that as I am just going on memory...

Edited by knuckleheads

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Lack of movement along with predictable sequencing and placement.  That’s always been why Kelly has never racked up strikeouts.

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There’s never been a guy like Hicks before. Tough to tell if he’s going to regress heavily or beat the odds because of his stuff.

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23 hours ago, BMcP said:

Lack of movement along with predictable sequencing and placement.  That’s always been why Kelly has never racked up strikeouts.

Looks to me like he actually has very nice two seam movement on his fastball. 

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1 hour ago, Dirty Little Birdie said:

Looks to me like he actually has very nice two seam movement on his fastball. 

 

Agreed - I was referring to his four-seamer.

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Posted (edited)

Hicks is a sinkerball pitcher who happens to throw harder than other sinkerballers.  Sinkerballers aren't good for fantasy.  They get a ton of balls put in play.  Dude doesn't control the zone at all.  Ks come from putting the FB in certain spots and throwing nasty secondary pitches to get hitters to react to certain areas of the zone.  He throws a 100 MPH sinkerball, which dudes can make contact on, often weak contact.  Hitters know what he's going to throw, I'm sure hitting a 100 MPH sinker isn't fun.  But he won't be a big K guy at the MLB level in his current form.  He's like Nick Blackburn with 10-12 MPH more.

Edited by mjk356

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14 hours ago, knuckleheads said:

 

I am just befuddled how a guy that throws this hard with this much insane movement can only have 9 strikeouts in 22 innings????  I get the high walks given all the movement but the Ks should go along with this.  Has there ever been a comparable pitcher to this in memory?   I can't think of one...

In spite of the terrible k/bb rates he has done alright from and ERA and Whip (tad high) standpoint which tells you something.  Usually I would look at those kind of numbers and say that the era/whip are not sustainable and he won't last long but this is just something different...

 

What are we looking at here if he gets his s--- together.  A righty Chapman without the k's????  

 

 

He's gonna kill somebody with that thing!

 

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10 hours ago, dkrocka said:

Why can't he just throw 98 and know where it's going.

This. If he stopped going for 105 and settled for 98 he have way better command and still be hard to hit. His pitches to Herrera were no where close to the strike zone. At least Chapman throws strikes.

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He threw 7 pitches, all strikes, in his inning of work the other night against the royals. With 2 k’s and 1 grounder. Average fb velocity was 101.3! 

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28 minutes ago, alisgodnow said:

He threw 7 pitches, all strikes, in his inning of work the other night against the royals. With 2 k’s and 1 grounder. Average fb velocity was 101.3! 

 

That's an impressive inning for Hicks. He needs to be watched closely if sitting on FA.  If he continues to throw strikes he clearly will be a shutdown reliever. 

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Looks like Hicks has started to fix his low strikout and high walks issues recently. Today he struck out 4 with no walks over 2 innings (8th-9th) vs the heart of the Brewers order to close out the win. Norris has done nothing to lose his job but should he slip Hicks is the guy to watch.  Should be owned in all holds leagues already.

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Posted (edited)
36 minutes ago, street sharks said:

That 5.47 xfip tho...

 

Yeah agreed but that is due to those terrible k/bb rates.  And yet he managed to keep things (ERA/WHIP) respectable.  Maybe he was extremely lucky or maybe he's just so hard to hit off the ground that he is an extreme outlier.  However, the reason for the post was just to note the recent improvements (more ks, less walks) which would appear to bode very well for him.

Edited by knuckleheads

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Should be given chance at the 8th or some saves given the issues they’re having in Stl

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This dude is absolutely filthy. His slider is great on it's own but couple it with a 100-105 mph fastball... just devastating.

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3 Ks in 8th, 12 pitches! Will he come out in 9th for 2 inning save op?

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Cards behind by 2 runs. So will he come out for the 9th?

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Another great outing. 2 innings, no baserunners, 4 K’s.

 

Not sure why he’s throwing 2 innings with the team down 2 but whatever.

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Kid has figured it out. Have to give him credit.. I was mocking him a couple pages back for his putrid K rate. Figured if he did figure something out it would take a lot longer than this. Amazing turnaround in a short period of time.

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4 minutes ago, absknicks said:

Kid has figured it out. Have to give him credit.. I was mocking him a couple pages back for his putrid K rate. Figured if he did figure something out it would take a lot longer than this. Amazing turnaround in a short period of time.

Ridiculously impressive how he harnessed his stuff this quickly and got control of his slider.

Check this thing out -

 

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I never understood how he couldn't miss any bats whatsoever. What an immediate and massive turnaround. To put it into numbers (these are the numbers I tend to look at when evaluating a pitcher):

 

April & May: 6.9% swinging strikes, 89.8% zone contact, 20.1% outside the zone swing %, 65.2% outside the zone contact 57.3% first pitch strikes

 

June (small sample though): 17.9% swinging strikes, 70% zone contact, 34% outside the zone swing %, 43.8% outside the zone contact %, 77.3% first strike %

 

So his first pitch strike % has sky-rocketed. The difference between at bats that start 1-0 vs 0-1 is an .826 OPS vs .605. With a refined slider to go along with monster heat that batters need to be geared up for, it makes sense that chase rate (outside zone swing %) would sky rocket. Tack on massive improvements in contact allowed and Hicks might be on his way to being the top-tier reliever people thought he could be. 

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I really don't think enough emphasis has been put on his experience.  Hicks skipped AA and AAA and only had 27IP in High A!  Kudos to the cards for rushing him to the majors.

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