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Jordan Hicks 2018 Outlook

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What's this guy's dynasty value? Any thoughts about his long-term upside? 

Edited by jnormy

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Everyone pretty much cutting bait?  Hasn't done much lately and he's a walking potential blow-up with all the walks.

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In deeper or keeper leagues, you hold him, maybe bench him. Guy has a 100 mph SINKER. You don't drop that. 

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14 minutes ago, MJDrocks said:

Everyone pretty much cutting bait?  Hasn't done much lately and he's a walking potential blow-up with all the walks.

 

I drop him whenever I have an injury or a great WW add.  Then I add him whenever I can again, but yeah, my league actually counts walks and he has as many as Morton does in half the innings.  I feel like he's figuring it out: he has the K upside but he's wild and not being able to locate.  I fear that it's a "turn the corner" kind of situation and I'll give up on him right before he does and he's lights-out for the rest of the season.

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Currently has a sub 1.00 (0.96 era) and decent whip (1.18) but still sports a nasty 8 ks/13 bb in 18.2 innings.   He seems to have settled down a bit and hasn't walked anyone in his last 3.1 innings but still only a single strikeout during that time.

My question is how good is this guy going to be once he straightens out all these ratios??  I think it's quite likely we are looking at the long term Cardinals closer here...

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53 minutes ago, knuckleheads said:

Currently has a sub 1.00 (0.96 era) and decent whip (1.18) but still sports a nasty 8 ks/13 bb in 18.2 innings.   He seems to have settled down a bit and hasn't walked anyone in his last 3.1 innings but still only a single strikeout during that time.

My question is how good is this guy going to be once he straightens out all these ratios??  I think it's quite likely we are looking at the long term Cardinals closer here...

 

I feel like I've heard this whole "long term cardinals closer" speel before...

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2 minutes ago, S1mcity said:

 

I feel like I've heard this whole "long term cardinals closer" speel before...


Ok ignore the "long term closer" thing then.  It's actually kind of irrelevant here but a potential byproduct to the end result.  Point was that although the peripherals are downright awful he bottom line is pretty darn good.  Almost always those high walk rates combined with a paltry k rate don't lead to anywhere decent.  However, seems like he's getting by so far.  Question really is how good is he going to be if/whenever he turns that around??? 

If not more to say then so be it...    

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2 minutes ago, Csiebert5 said:

He’s touched 104 thrice and 105 twice today! Wow! 

 

Those pitches register as a sinker too lol the downward action on his pitches are insane 

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This was from yesterday but shows the movement he has on his pitches:

 

 

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He is filthy! Major leaguers can catch up to 100mph now but not 105! All these pitches looked fast as hell! Usually watching on tv doesn’t do justice but you could tell the pitches during that AB were on another level of velocity.

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7 hours ago, Helms said:

 

 

 

105 with this movement. My god.

 

I am just befuddled how a guy that throws this hard with this much insane movement can only have 9 strikeouts in 22 innings????  I get the high walks given all the movement but the Ks should go along with this.  Has there ever been a comparable pitcher to this in memory?   I can't think of one...

In spite of the terrible k/bb rates he has done alright from and ERA and Whip (tad high) standpoint which tells you something.  Usually I would look at those kind of numbers and say that the era/whip are not sustainable and he won't last long but this is just something different...

 

What are we looking at here if he gets his s--- together.  A righty Chapman without the k's????  

Edited by knuckleheads

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7 minutes ago, knuckleheads said:

 

I am just befuddled how a guy that throws this hard with this much insane movement can only have 9 strikeouts in 22 innings????  I get the high walks given all the movement but the Ks should go along with this.  Has there ever been a comparable pitcher to this in memory?   I can't think of one...

In spite of the terrible k/bb rates he has done alright from and ERA and Whip (tad high) standpoint which tells you something.  Usually I would look at those kind of numbers and say that the era/whip are not sustainable and he will last long but this is just something different...  

That is hilariously bad. That's a 9.0% strikeout rate. His walk rate is 15.7%. Your BB% should never come close to your K%, but he goes above and beyond that.

Edited by Fuzzy_Slippers
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I didn’t think it was even possible to throw that hard and miss so few bats. This guy’s inability to strike people out is uncanny. 

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5 hours ago, Fuzzy_Slippers said:

That is hilariously bad. That's a 9.0% strikeout rate. His walk rate is 15.7%. Your BB% should never come close to your K%, but he goes above and beyond that.

And yet he's the fastest thrower in baseball. That is quite unique, uniquely awful.

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7 hours ago, Fuzzy_Slippers said:

That is hilariously bad. That's a 9.0% strikeout rate. His walk rate is 15.7%. Your BB% should never come close to your K%, but he goes above and beyond that.

Yeah I addressed this weirdness a bit in the SP/RP thread. 

 

I think there’s a perfectly reasonable argument to be made that a guy who throws a sinker at 100+ is almost completely unique, so much so that maybe he’s a peripheral beater. I’m not sure that we’ve ever seen anything close to that, and maybe the projections are just never going to like a sinkerballer like that anyways. 

 

That said, there has to be a line too. Maybe his super-fast sinker is a blindspot in the peripheral/projection world. But not with a goddamn 3.68 K/9 matched to a 6.55 BB/9. 

 

Also, I love the movement and velocity, but he’s got to still control it, because besides walks, he’s missing so bad he gave Doobs a free shot at 1st with a throw in the dirt that was missed. 

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Reminds me of Joe Kelly when he was on the Cards. Threw 100 plus and couldn't buy a strikeout as a starter.  Kelly has added that change up which has increased his K/9 and I would imagine it will take a better second pitch to do the same for Hicks.

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I think it is important to remember that he had never pitched above high A before this year and that he only had 27 career IP in high A.  It's hard to look to the past to see if he has a track record for k's as it is a small sample size. (10.67 k/9 and 2.00 BB/9 in A+ 27IP as both a starter and a reliever) but there is some hope.

Edited by alisgodnow

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