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Ezekiel Elliott 2018 Outlook

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24 minutes ago, The Invictus said:

By who's standards would that be, yours?

 

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15 minutes ago, Bmore86 said:

I actually didn’t mention Witten at all in my prognosis as I was discussing the offensive line, not the tight end but it seems you have trouble keeping up with reality. There’s more evidence to this in your opinion that a young, dominant offensive line with continue to deteriorate. And still more evidence that you can’t keep up with reality as you say I’m assuming a lot by assuming that a player who has missed 5 games in his career will enter the season at full strength and is likely to play the season in that capacity. Other than that, good job.

 

If you think the lack of weapons on offense will affect Zeke, or Dak’s ability to throw downfield will affect him, or the stacked boxes will affect him, that’s cool. I can accept that and have taken all those things into account in my opinion of Zeke heading into this season. But acting like the Dallas offensive line play is likely to be worse is nonsense.

Well in anyones reality, they were worse last year than the years prior. But you just keep assuming that they'll be great, and that yard per carry drop is not reality but in fact a mirage in my own distorted matrix, then you're right. I'm sure it had absolutely nothing with them being lesser, and Tyron Smith's back injury you can blame all on which in any case will never ever rear it's ugly head again... in reality that never happens either. And in my reality, Witten blocked a lot and contributes to the O-Line production but why mention that, it doesn't matter outside of my own Rabbit Hole anyway.

Edited by The Invictus

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11 minutes ago, The Invictus said:

Well in anyones reality, they were worse last year than the years prior. But you just keep assuming that they'll be great, and that yard per carry drop is not reality but in fact a mirage in my own distorted matrix, then you're right. I'm sure it had absolutely nothing with them being lesser, and Tyron Smith's back injury you can blame all on which in any case will never ever rear it's ugly head again... in reality that never happens either.

So to be clear- you expect a guy who has missed 5 games in his career will get hurt again? And that adding a 2nd round pick at guard to a line already ranked in the top 5 will cause that line to deteriorate or possibly further deteriorate (it’s unclear to me if you already see the top 5 line in deterioration mode or if that’s just something you expect to happen). And that the top 5 offensive line is to blame for a full yard lower ypc for Zeke? 

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1 hour ago, SharkSwimmer said:

They can't really rush the passer or cover anyone.  Other than that, yeah, the Dallas D is pretty good.

 

54 minutes ago, The Invictus said:

What are you related to Jerry Jones or something? The team had one of the worst Defenses in the league, as pointed out...couldn't cover or rush the passer. But I'm sure they'll be 'top 10' as well too.

I guess the 8th overall defense from last year could be considered a "bad" defense.

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Just now, Bmore86 said:

So to be clear- you expect a guy who has missed 5 games in his career will get hurt again? And that adding a 2nd round pick at guard to a line already ranked in the top 5 will cause that line to deteriorate or possibly further deteriorate (it’s unclear to me if you already see the top 5 line in deterioration mode or if that’s just something you expect to happen). And that the top 5 offensive line is to blame for a full yard lower ypc for Zeke? 

To be clear you blamed all the woes of the down year from the O -line on his injury. 'Assuming'... I happen to think they will not regain the dominance of prior years which Elliott enjoyed the tail end of as a Rookie. And to be clear, back injuries can flare up at any time, and since you hinged everything on his back health, I will bet there are more factors involved than simple that. Losing Witten will also make it that much harder to regain their prior dominance. To be clear.

And I'd be remiss to mention EE did enter the season heavier and a bit out of shape and it showed. He did look better after his suspension but it wasn't a good look already on such a young player. We'll see which one shows up this September.

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9 minutes ago, RMJ_12 said:

 

I guess the 8th overall defense from last year could be considered a "bad" defense.

They are not a good one, In total yards yielded they were 8th, yes. Everything else that matters they were middle of the road or worse. 

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18 minutes ago, The Invictus said:

They are not a good one, In total yards yielded they were 8th, yes. Everything else that matters they were middle of the road or worse. 

Actually the only thing that REALLY matters is points allowed per game and they finished 13th in that category.  So not "bad".

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6 hours ago, The Invictus said:

To be clear you blamed all the woes of the down year from the O -line on his injury. 'Assuming'... I happen to think they will not regain the dominance of prior years which Elliott enjoyed the tail end of as a Rookie. And to be clear, back injuries can flare up at any time, and since you hinged everything on his back health, I will bet there are more factors involved than simple that. Losing Witten will also make it that much harder to regain their prior dominance. To be clear.

And I'd be remiss to mention EE did enter the season heavier and a bit out of shape and it showed. He did look better after his suspension but it wasn't a good look already on such a young player. We'll see which one shows up this September.

No I didn’t. I’ve maintained throughout that the offensive line has continued to be dominant, including last year. A slight downtick in their ranking can be attributed to a slight downtick in Tyron Smith’s performance due to injury but they remained young and dominant. Had I been involved in a discussion about why Elliot’s ypc was down last year, the injury/play of Tyron Smith would have been low on the list, and the offensive line play in general wouldn’t have made the list at all. I’d list what you mentioned about Zeke being in game shape, the loss of practice time for him, the continued distraction of his court case, the decline of the weapons around him, and some regression in Dak’s play. 

 

So go ahead and answer the questions I listed in the previous post. You do blame the top 5 offensive line for last year? You expect the addition of a 2nd round guard to the line to make it worse? And you now consider Tyron Smith likely to get injured? Yes or no answers will do. 

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Even if all the O-line guys for Dallas stay healthy and gel, who's going to respect the Cowboy's league-worst (by a pretty wide margin) WR and TE group?  That's right, worse then even Buffalo.  At least Buffalo has an NFL starting caliber TE and they also have Kelvin Benjamin.

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I agree with Sharkswimmer, Dallas hasn't  offensive alternative! The offense game is all in Dak and Zeke hands , I think that is a problem for a Team that finally want to go in Playoff ! Beasley is still wr1...he is too old

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Dez and Witten were not very productive last year, so I don't view their departures as huge obstacles. Dak has the ability to run and make plays outside the pocket which always keeps defenses more honest. Their line is still among the best in the league and the volume will be there. I could see a fear of offensive decline make you move Zeke behind the other guys in the top tier like Bell, DJ, Gurley, and maybe even AB in PPR, but I moving him past No. 5 would be lunacy. I think he's closer to deserving the No. 1 overall pick than he is falling to 6. 

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3 hours ago, Bmore86 said:

No I didn’t. I’ve maintained throughout that the offensive line has continued to be dominant, including last year. A slight downtick in their ranking can be attributed to a slight downtick in Tyron Smith’s performance due to injury but they remained young and dominant. Had I been involved in a discussion about why Elliot’s ypc was down last year, the injury/play of Tyron Smith would have been low on the list, and the offensive line play in general wouldn’t have made the list at all. I’d list what you mentioned about Zeke being in game shape, the loss of practice time for him, the continued distraction of his court case, the decline of the weapons around him, and some regression in Dak’s play. 

 

So go ahead and answer the questions I listed in the previous post. You do blame the top 5 offensive line for last year? You expect the addition of a 2nd round guard to the line to make it worse? And you now consider Tyron Smith likely to get injured? Yes or no answers will do. 

You maybe the only person that either plays FF or studies it, that is unwilling or unable to see a regression in the Offensive Line as a contributing factor in his full  1 YPC drop from the year prior. I don't recall reading him missing a terrible amount of practice time, after all he wasn't spending days in court or traveling for the appearances far for all that matter either. And at the age of 21, still shouldn't be a concern. I choose to look at more obvious factors that contributed to it. So to succinctly answer your questions again :

 

Yes ~ The O-Line contributed, not what it was. Even if they were on the higher end of the spectrum in relation to the league, still a downgrade

Possibly ~ No guarantee he'll jump right in and help immediately, many times they bust or just don't gel.

Yes ~ Back issues for Offensive Lineman are never good and I'll err on the side of decline than resurgence. 

 

I also take into account worst case scenarios when drafting, where I find many if not most FF players choose Best Case Scenarios to look at their players and teams. Not counting the homers of course which speak for themselves.

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1 hour ago, SharkSwimmer said:

Even if all the O-line guys for Dallas stay healthy and gel, who's going to respect the Cowboy's league-worst (by a pretty wide margin) WR and TE group?  That's right, worse then even Buffalo.  At least Buffalo has an NFL starting caliber TE and they also have Kelvin Benjamin.

 

I'm of the view that you are going to see a very slow Dallas offense and you will not see big chunky plays moving the ball downfield quickly and putting up points.

I mean I could be surprised if Gallup becomes a stud as a rookie or Hurns becomes a stud (woods/goodwin did it after leaving BuFF).

 

I mean Garret use to be considered and offensive genius correct? :)

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Dear God.. the loss of Dez and 500 yard Jason Witten is so overblown.  Zeke didn't rush for 1600 yards because of Dez.  Some of you tried to argue with me that Dez is washed, but now somehow he matters.

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You are saying that dez bryant and witten are not important ok? Who is the #1tight end now? And the WR? I don' see good players, only dak and zeke, for me is a problem ! You will see ...5games and we will have answers

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6 minutes ago, RMJ_12 said:

Dear God.. the loss of Dez and 500 yard Jason Witten is so overblown.  Zeke didn't rush for 1600 yards because of Dez.  Some of you tried to argue with me that Dez is washed, but now somehow he matters.

This is a fair point, but it ignores the real problem.  Dez and Witten are gone, and were they good or bad?  Whether or no, take a look at what is now left:  Gallup, a rookie with pretty uninspiring combine numbers; and three confirmed WR4 caliber guys in Hurns, Terrance, and Beasley.  And TE group that is severely lacking, to be generous.

Edited by SharkSwimmer
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2 hours ago, RMJ_12 said:

Dear God.. the loss of Dez and 500 yard Jason Witten is so overblown.  Zeke didn't rush for 1600 yards because of Dez.  Some of you tried to argue with me that Dez is washed, but now somehow he matters.

 

Despite Dez's struggles, teams still kept a safety on top of him. Witten is also always a focal point when gameplanning on defense. Zeke should still be fine though if his o-line stays healthy.

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7 minutes ago, tpat30 said:

 

Despite Dez's struggles, teams still kept a safety on top of him. Witten is also always a focal point when gameplanning on defense. Zeke should still be fine though if his o-line stays healthy.

 

No they didn't. Teams gave no help on Dez last year, and for most of the previous 2 seasons as well.

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21 hours ago, SharkSwimmer said:

They can't really rush the passer or cover anyone.  Other than that, yeah, the Dallas D is pretty good.

 

Is this accurate currently? Lawrence and Irving are solid D-Ends. Dallas was 15th in Sacks in 2017. They have a hole at safety, which they could realistically fill with Thomas before the season starts. Their corners are very young and talented and showed well in 2017. 

 

I think your opinion on the Cowboys defense is a little outdated. I’m not saying their great. But they aren’t poor rushing the passer, and their corners are talented.

Edited by taobball

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6 hours ago, joshua18 said:

 

No they didn't. Teams gave no help on Dez last year, and for most of the previous 2 seasons as well.

 

I watch every Cowboys game and i could've sworn never seeing the safety on his side playing up in the box. Maybe Dez was so irrelevant that I just didn't notice. I know the elite corners he played against didn't need help over the top. Are there stats on the amount of times this happened? I know he was never double teamed.

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21 hours ago, SharkSwimmer said:

They can't really rush the passer or cover anyone.  Other than that, yeah, the Dallas D is pretty good.

 

26 minutes ago, taobball said:

 

Is this accurate currently? Lawrence and Irving are solid D-Ends. Dallas was 15th in Sacks in 2017. They have a hole at safety, which they could realistically fill with Thomas before the season starts. Their corners are very young and talented and showed well in 2017. 

 

I think your opinion on the Cowboys defense is a little outdated. I’m not saying their great. But they aren’t poor rushing the passer, and their corners are talented.

 

Gonna flip a few more details on this. 

 

In 2016, Cowboys were 3rd in Time of Possession, 5th in Yards per Game, and 5th in Scoring Offense.

 

In 2016, the Cowboys allowed 260.4 Passing Yards per Game (26th). While having a high scoring offense doesn't help that factor, their amount of ball control IMO should've off-set that. These passing stats are a clear result of bad pass-defense, one way or the other.

 

In 2017, Cowboys regressed to 14th in Points/Yards, and 12th in Time of Possession. 

 

In 2017, Cowboys improved to allowing 214.1 Passing Yards Per Game (11th). 

 

So maybe teams just didn't need to score as much on the Cowboys. Personally I think that the jump from 26th to 11th is being a bit understated by the general public. Lewis and Awuzie look like legitimate young corner talent, Anthony Brown looked good in 2016, and Byron Jones' switch to the position is more because of how he's handled himself in physical man defense the last few years. If they add Earl, I think it solidifies them as having an above-league-average Passing Defense. Sean Lee's pretty good on the pass too. 

 

It's obviously not just the stats. I believe in the personnel here. I don't think the defense is nearly as bad as one needing to be easily dismissed as you are doing. 

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Dallas is trying something different this year with its WR's. Instead of having a true #1 WR, they opted for a bunch of WR's that run good routes and have an expanded route tree. This is what they call "Dak friendly". Will it work? Who knows, but I wouldnt be worried too much about losing Dez. He was a non factor the past 2 seasons. I myself think Zekes in for a big year. He already admitted that all the crap going on last year was a big distraction and he's coming into this season refreshed and with a clear head.

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My issue is Dez is still a good redzone threat. I can't say this team is better without him. I would have to draft Barkley over Zeke. Is that crazy? Barkley's situation seems better in almost every way. I would say I compare Zeke's situation to Mccoy's situation last year and that's not worth top 3.  

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