fakespike

Austin Ekeler 2018 Outlook

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I've heard little to no mention of this guy's name this offseason, even in the dynasty circles.  I was greatly impressed with what I saw from him in his limited touches, he has huge burst and speed.  If he had any draft capital, looking just at the stats and film, we'd be expecting him to take over the starting job.   

 

https://www.profootballfocus.com/news/fantasy-football-austin-ekeler-the-poor-mans-alvin-kamara

 

http://www.chargers.com/news/2018/03/02/young-player-coach-lynn-says-may-emerge-starter

"Austin can run every down too though because of his strength.  He’s not a really big guy, but he’s not a small guy either.  He’s put together really well, can run between the tackles and run outside on the perimeter. I think Austin can be an every down back."

 

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Even if he doesn't take the starting job, I think Lynn can support two RBs, although he would be lower end obviously. Good bye week fill and handcuff.

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7 hours ago, fakespike said:

I've heard little to no mention of this guy's name this offseason, even in the dynasty circles.  I was greatly impressed with what I saw from him in his limited touches, he has huge burst and speed.  If he had any draft capital, looking just at the stats and film, we'd be expecting him to take over the starting job.   

 

https://www.profootballfocus.com/news/fantasy-football-austin-ekeler-the-poor-mans-alvin-kamara

 

http://www.chargers.com/news/2018/03/02/young-player-coach-lynn-says-may-emerge-starter

"Austin can run every down too though because of his strength.  He’s not a really big guy, but he’s not a small guy either.  He’s put together really well, can run between the tackles and run outside on the perimeter. I think Austin can be an every down back."

 

My first reaction to this is: absurd! But... Ekeler averaged 5.5 yards per carry last year (In a small sample of only 47 carries), while Gordon averaged 3.9 (including an 87 yarder. Outside of that, he had 283 carries at a 3.5 ypc clip). 

 

I still think it's silly to even consider Ekeler ever becoming the starting RB for the Chargers, but there could definitely be a more even split this year. Instead of 284-47, maybe we see  220-110.

 

If that happens, Ekeler becomes extremely interesting, especially in PPR.  That could put him at about 500 rushing yards, and maybe 45 catches for 400 yards and, say, 4 total touchdowns.  

 

That would put him squarely in the range of top 25 PPR back. Not bad for someone, whom, as you pointed out, is garnering no attention. 

 

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We will have to see what happens in the draft obviously.  But having said that...

 

... he definitely emerged as a 3rd down and satellite back guy last season.   

 

The biggest issue imo is that he will hurt MG3 bellcow status in 2018.

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9 hours ago, fakespike said:

 If he had any draft capital, looking just at the stats and film, we'd be expecting him to take over the starting job.   

 

Are you being serious? :lol:

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Melvin Gordon is 1 of only about 7 RBs in the league that are used as a truly effective 3-down backs. Ekeler has the skills to earn him some touches, but this backfield is MGs.

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49 minutes ago, P@ckersFan said:

Melvin Gordon is 1 of only about 7 RBs in the league that are used as a truly effective 3-down backs. Ekeler has the skills to earn him some touches, but this backfield is MGs.

 

I don't think they'll use him as a true bellcow anymore.  Writing was on the wall last season with how much they used Ekeker.

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17 minutes ago, 96mnc said:

 

I don't think they'll use him as a true bellcow anymore.  Writing was on the wall last season with how much they used Ekeker.

 

That doesn't mean he's not a true bellcow.  Is Shady not a true bellcow?  Him and Gordon had the same touches last year.  I'd actually prefer someone to give a starting RB a breather.

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49 minutes ago, 96mnc said:

 

I don't think they'll use him as a true bellcow anymore.  Writing was on the wall last season with how much they used Ekeker.

I won’t be drafting Gordon.  Ekeler deserves more touches.

 

1st round for Gordon is too pricey.

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3 hours ago, kdko said:

 

That doesn't mean he's not a true bellcow.  Is Shady not a true bellcow?  Him and Gordon had the same touches last year.  I'd actually prefer someone to give a starting RB a breather.

 

I think his touches are going to decrease next year. 

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Gordon:  3.9 ypa, 8.2 ypr, 1 TD per 29 touches

Ekeler:  5.5 ypa, 10.3 ypr, 1 TD per 15 touches

 

which makes sense, considering:

Gordon:  4.52 40, 35" vert, 126" broad

Ekeler:  4.43 40 (pro day), 40.5" vert, 128" broad

 

I in no way think Ekeler will take over the starting job, barring an injury.  In fact, i expect LAC to draft a mid/late round RB to fill out their backfield.  That said, I think Ekeler's usage goes up pretty considerably from last year.  If I owned Gordon, I'd be concerned.  

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19 hours ago, 96mnc said:

 

I think his touches are going to decrease next year. 

 

What if they remain the same and they just run the ball more (which should happen with extended drives)..should have a better OL, consistency among the coaching, and a top 5 D. Ekeler looked great on third down but MG had his fair share of big plays off of flats and screens (I think all his big plays were off those atually). I'm high on the Chargers as a whole in 2018 so a little bias. 

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Just now, JSA2422 said:

 

What if they remain the same and they just run the ball more (which should happen with extended drives)..should have a better OL, consistency among the coaching, and a top 5 D. Ekeler looked great on third down but MG had his fair share of big plays off of flats and screens (I think all his big plays were off those atually). I'm high on the Chargers as a whole in 2018 so a little bias. 

 

The Chargers are currently my Vegas value pick to win the Super Bowl so I'm as high on them as can be. 

 

Yes,  of course it's possible that their overall number of carries increases which could offset Ekeler getting more of a touch share.  But losing those easy 3rd down catches would still hurt. 

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I think the 3rd down touches are better served in MG3's hands than Ekeler's, if his touches increase I don't think it will be significant.

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8 hours ago, kdko said:

I think the 3rd down touches are better served in MG3's hands than Ekeler's, if his touches increase I don't think it will be significant.

Based on what? Your ownership of Gordon on your ff team? Did you watch any Chargers games at all?  I live in LA, I watched almost every Ekeler touch. He looked pretty damn impressive. Gordon is still the guy but Ek will steal more touches. 

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It we won't be long till Ekeler starts turning this into a committee backfield. Gordon has proved he's an average runner and doesn't break big runs. If San Diego starts to fall out of contention I can see a possible changing of the guard.

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I been getting quite a bit of ekeler shares thsi year in the latter rounds without owning melvin gordon. I think I own ekeler in 40 percent of my leagues. He has some kamara like abilities in his game. Do I think he can be the woodhead to ryan matthews gordon? Absolutely. In a 14 team draft last night where we can only stash 5 rb I own him over isaiah crowell and not losing a bit of sleep over it. If things break right I can see 1150 yards and 7 tds for ekeler. 

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I'm a Gordon owner, but Ekeler is a great late round pick. Gordon insurance, but he also carries standalone value as well. Arguably the best handcuff out there value wise.

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4 hours ago, raidaz18 said:

It we won't be long till Ekeler starts turning this into a committee backfield. Gordon has proved he's an average runner and doesn't break big runs. If San Diego starts to fall out of contention I can see a possible changing of the guard.

 

Bases on what? Ridiculous take.

 

let me know when ekeler ever handles 300 touches successfully and succeeds with being the guy. Gordon is a proven producer .

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5 hours ago, raidaz18 said:

It we won't be long till Ekeler starts turning this into a committee backfield. Gordon has proved he's an average runner and doesn't break big runs. If San Diego starts to fall out of contention I can see a possible changing of the guard.

Gordon isn’t great but he isn’t average. You don’t run for over 400 yards against a power 5 school and then proceed to becoming a workhorse in the nfl by being average. I agree he isn’t an all that great NFL RB but he’s far above average. 

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If I own Ekeler, he'll just be a change of pace guy who nets a handful of touches and will never be startable.

But if I don't own him, he's going to blow up and finish a top 30 PPR RB.

You guys can all thank me now...

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39 minutes ago, CooL said:

If I own Ekeler, he'll just be a change of pace guy who nets a handful of touches and will never be startable.

But if I don't own him, he's going to blow up and finish a top 30 PPR RB.

You guys can all thank me now...

 

Well we can't thank you for anything until you tell us your intent.  

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6 minutes ago, theSPANKER said:

 

Well we can't thank you for anything until you tell us your intent.  

Ah I thought it was clear that I’m not owning him this year.... enjoy!

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i will say if gordon misses any time ekeler is a top 12 ppr rb. He will not dissapoint us the way that other rb did when gordon went down a few years ago the same way kenneth farrow did. Of course if rivers ever went down all bets are off for this offense.  

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2 hours ago, ilovepelas said:

 

i will say if gordon misses any time ekeler is a top 12 ppr rb. He will not dissapoint us the way that other rb did when gordon went down a few years ago the same way kenneth farrow did. Of course if rivers ever went down all bets are off for this offense.  

 

I don't know about that, they kept Newsome and if Justin Jackson ends up on the practice squad he is just a phone call away.

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