JFS179

Mar/April Closer Thread 2018

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Time for a regular season topic.  We'll keep it monthly, as we've always done.  I expect we push 200 pages with this one.

 

Consider this a reminder of the forum rules, best practices for the thread, and a reminder to be sure you're complying with the Code of Conduct.

 

1) Bench coach questions belong in the Bench Coach Forum.  It's really not that hard ... if you're asking should I drop this guy for that guy, it's Bench Coach material.  Some of you are getting pretty good at 'hiding' your bench coach questions as "would you prefer to own A or B," but you're not fooling anyone.  Keep it relevant to everyone on the board.

 

2) No one cares about your team.  In fact, we couldn't possibly care any less about whether or not you own 15 closers or none.  We don't care if you own the guy that just got smoked in a non-save situation, and we don't care if you're celebrating owning the next newly minted closer.  It's all Cool Story Bro, and there's will inevitably be a 2018 Cool Story Bro thread just for that.

 

3) This isn't the place to discuss league strategies.  Questions about punting saves being a viable strategy aren't applicable here.  Neither are the posts saying, "I punt saves so I don't have to deal with all this."  Cool - we're here cause we want new closers.  If that doesn't apply to you, there are numerous other threads on the forum.

 

4) League Settings discussions can go elsewhere too.  Just because it's a closer's thread doesn't mean it's the place to discuss the viability of Holds as a category, or whether your league should be Saves + Holds, or whether Saves + Holds is better than Saves, or whether Net Saves should be the category of choice instead of just Saves.

 

5) Don't be a lazy bum.  Don't be that guy that just shows up, posts your question, and expects an answer.  Don't be the guy that can't be bothered to read the discussion.  A best practice is to click the red dot/star to the left of a thread title, which takes you automatically to the last post you read.  Some nights are busy in here, so that might mean you're 5 pages behind.  Maybe you're 10 behind ... do the work.  Life doesn't reward the lazy, and neither does fantasy baseball.  Also, catch up on the whole damn thread before posting.  There's nothing worse than quoting some asinine comment from 15 hours ago and taking the entire thread down a rabbit hole all over again.  Catch up, then go back and comment if you'd like.  Stream of consciousness posts aren't needed.  

 

As for the rest of you that aren't asking the lazy questions and are complying with the rules above... don't goad the guys that aren't in compliance.  Snarky responses also clutter the thread and lead to back-and-forth discussions that take us way, way off topic.  Report the post.  A moderator will handle it.

 

Finally, if you're drunk ... go sober up elsewhere.  Don't get your jollies from cluttering up a thread the rest of us are trying to enjoy and digest for useful information. 

 

Carry on ...

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Statistically, closers have a 40% chance of keeping the role all year, either due to performance or injury.  There's going to be plenty of shifting roles to track.  What are the shakiest situations right now?

 

Giants

Cardinals

White Sox

Twins (cause Rodney)

Royals

Rangers

Angels

Phillies (been talk of Neris as a fireman)

Mets (committee talk)

 

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Bets on the first guy to lose his job this year?

 

I'll take Familia.  I'll give even odds to 1) sucking 2) signing greg holland and 3) injury as to why.

 

Edited by LJJr

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I’ll fire away first... SF is going to win games, Melons is done (possible done for good) - sign me up for Strickland stock (he’s a bulldog, threw at Bryce Harper - gotta love this, He’s got a filthy arsenal and not to mention this but....he worked on his slider with John “funk nasty” Smoltz this offseason) — ride the train don’t get off to soon ??

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22 hours ago, JFS179 said:

Statistically, closers have a 40% chance of keeping the role all year, either due to performance or injury.  There's going to be plenty of shifting roles to track.  What are the shakiest situations right now?

 

Giants

Cardinals

White Sox

Twins (cause Rodney)

Royals

Rangers

Angels

Phillies (been talk of Neris as a fireman)

Mets (committee talk)

 

Royals closer is Herrera. Am I missing something here?

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Just now, Silverdome_Loyal said:

I’ll fire away first... SF is going to win games, Melons is done (possible done for good) - sign me up for Strickland stock (he’s a bulldog, threw at Bryce Harper - gotta love this, He’s got a filthy arsenal and not to mention this but....he worked on his slider with John “funk nasty” Smoltz this offseason) — ride the train don’t get off to soon ??

My guess is Dyson gets first crack, Watson is solid as well although I cant remember Bochy every using LH Closer - so he probably would favor Dyson to start and if he implodes Strickland has the natural make-up, certainly in terms of Velo

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1 minute ago, Dirty Little Birdie said:

 

Royals closer is Herrera. Am I missing something here?

That he’s been awful and may get traded at the deadline. But that’s it.

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2 minutes ago, Dirty Little Birdie said:

 

Royals closer is Herrera. Am I missing something here?

 

I mean...Herrera just isn't that good.  However, nobody behind him is that good either.  KC has kinda a terrible pen this year.

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1 minute ago, LJJr said:

Bets on the first guy to lose his job this year?

 

I'll take Familia.  I'll give even odds to 1) sucking 2) signing greg holland and 3) injury as to why.

 

 

I'll say Ziegler.

 

Dead man, walking !

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1 minute ago, parrothead said:

My guess is Dyson gets first crack, Watson is solid as well although I cant remember Bochy every using LH Closer - so he probably would favor Dyson to start and if he implodes Strickland has the natural make-up, certainly in terms of Velo

 

 

Did ya see how Dyson looked in spring training?  it wasn't pretty.

 

14 H, 10 ER, 4 HR, 5 BB in 8.0 IP

 

yeah it's spring but wowzers

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1 minute ago, LJJr said:

 

 

Did ya see how Dyson looked in spring training?  it wasn't pretty.

 

14 H, 10 ER, 4 HR, 5 BB in 8.0 IP

 

yeah it's spring but wowzers

But its the Giants and Bochy, they give the vets leeway, just saying...I have no dog in that hunt whatsoever, just going with the hunch of how that team and that manager tend to operate.  

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1 minute ago, parrothead said:

But its the Giants and Bochy, they give the vets leeway, just saying...I have no dog in that hunt whatsoever, just going with the hunch of how that team and that manager tend to operate.  

 

Fair point...

 

Not sure I'd want to give Dyson a crack at my fantasy team or not even if he does get save opps but that is definitely Bochy's MO

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23 minutes ago, fletch44 said:

 

I'll say Ziegler.

 

Dead man, walking !

Kind of cheating, but I’ll go Parker. Last year looking like a one-off skills wise. He’s kind of like Shoemaker with that split change. When it’s off, he is awful. No way he sticks.

Edited by Magoo

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19 minutes ago, LJJr said:

 

I mean...Herrera just isn't that good.  However, nobody behind him is that good either.  KC has kinda a terrible pen this year.

 

Last year was a disaster, yes.  But from 2012-2016:

 

IP:  354 1/3

ERA:  2.57

WHIP:  1.12

K/9:  9.1

 

Those are great numbers.  He was hit around last year, his H/9 and HR/9 spiked but the velocity was still there.  I don't think anybody knows exactly what happened.  I'd expect a bounceback from him this year.  Main concern with him is getting traded at the deadline, which seems like a certainty to happen on a rebuilding team.  The 'pen is absolute garbage and next in line is Brandon Maurer, who came to KC in a trade and proceeded to put up  8.10 ERA/2.25 WHIP in 20.0 IP.

 

tl;dr - Herrera's job is safe until late July

 

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Herrera needed a strong spring IMO.  Maybe he ends up just fine, but it's not been pretty so far.  Maurer pitched really well for SD last year in the first half, but his surface stats didn't show it.  They've also got a Rule V kid that's had a tremendous spring out of the pen.

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Just now, BoogieNights said:

 

Last year was a disaster, yes.  But from 2012-2016:

 

IP:  354 1/3

ERA:  2.57

WHIP:  1.12

K/9:  9.1

 

Those are great numbers.  He was hit around last year, his H/9 and HR/9 spiked but the velocity was still there.  I don't think anybody knows exactly what happened.  I'd expect a bounceback from him this year.  Main concern with him is getting traded at the deadline, which seems like a certainty to happen on a rebuilding team.  The 'pen is absolute garbage and next in line is Brandon Maurer, who came to KC in a trade and proceeded to put up  8.10 ERA/2.25 WHIP in 20.0 IP.

 

tl;dr - Herrera's job is safe until late July

 

 

Absolutely no one in baseball is safe until July.  Heath Bell signed a gargantuan contract and was done in about a 3 week stretch of awfulness - long after it became painfully obvious he couldn't handle it.  Long leash for some (though I wouldn't put Herrera in that boat), but 2-3 weeks of trouble will get anyone removed or DL'd to figure it out.

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I have Herrera....not overly excited about him, but this is the way I see it....He was abysmal last year. Everything that could have went wrong, went wrong. He was hittable, couldn't locate, and was injured for parts of the year. With all that, the guy still put up an ERA slightly above 4. Not saying that is good, because it isn't....but it's not like he put up a 6 ERA like Maurer. He has a good track record and I am hoping  he could go back to those years before last year. 

 

If he doesn't, oh well....he fell pretty late in drafts.

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15 minutes ago, Magoo said:

Kind of cheating, but I’ll go Parker. Last year looking like a one-off skills wise. He’s kind of like Shoemaker with that split change. When it’s off, he is awful. No way he sticks.

 

Is Parker actually the "closer"?  Does anyone know? 

 

Does mike scoscia even know?  I'm thinking probably not?  Even if he does he may change his mind 3 times in the next 2 days....

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Just now, BoogieNights said:

Greg Holland reportedly close to signing with St. Louis

 

perfect

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4 minutes ago, hangin n wangin said:

I have Herrera....not overly excited about him, but this is the way I see it....He was abysmal last year. Everything that could have went wrong, went wrong. He was hittable, couldn't locate, and was injured for parts of the year. With all that, the guy still put up an ERA slightly above 4. Not saying that is good, because it isn't....but it's not like he put up a 6 ERA like Maurer. He has a good track record and I am hoping  he could go back to those years before last year. 

 

If he doesn't, oh well....he fell pretty late in drafts.

I think Herrera is pretty secure in his role, not huge upside, he has been less than a kper inning 3 of last 4 years, and when your a P to contact guy, a little hurt, you are gonna have a rough season here and there, which I think is what we saw in 2017.  Not sure how much they will win, he needs to cash in his opps when he does, in H2H blown saves on bad teams can be real frustrating because you know they may only get like 1-2 opps a week 

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Just now, The Waker said:

 

perfect

Actually pretty good news in terms of not rocking the apple cart too much, I guess the one question is that does this mean no Reyes at closer at some point?  Like 2-3 weeks back, many experts were predicting Reyes would eventually serve as Cards closer this year, in that they have had a history of upside starters moving into that role.  

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Neris could turn out to be a great asset for S+H leagues if his role becomes fluid.  I like him to still save at least 30 games though and throw in a 10 or so holds.   If he gets consistent control over his splitter, he's a top 10 closer, no doubt.  But that's the big "if'.

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39 minutes ago, JFS179 said:

Statistically, closers have a 40% chance of keeping the role all year, either due to performance or injury.  There's going to be plenty of shifting roles to track.  What are the shakiest situations right now?

 

Giants

Cardinals

White Sox

Twins (cause Rodney)

Royals

Rangers

Angels

Phillies (been talk of Neris as a fireman)

Mets (committee talk)

 

 

It's maybe nit-picking, but I'd break it down further into "situations that are currently in a state of change" and "situations to speculate on".  Some of these teams we still are waiting to see who the supposed closer is going to be, while others have a closer named, but we're just speculating they could lose the job early on:

 

Teams in current turmoil:

 

White Sox - Is it going to be Soria, Nate Jones, or a combination of both?  No real word from the manager, but beat writers seem to think it'll be both.

Cardinals - Gregerson was supposed to be the man, but he's opening the season on the DL.  GM has talked positively about both Leone and Lyon, but no official announcement how they will be used yet.

Giants - It's Melancon's job, but now there are major questions about his health.  If he starts the season on the DL, it could be Dyson, Watson, Strickland, or a combination of all three that fill in.  Still a very new situation.

Rangers - Going into camp it was an open competition between Claudio, Kela, and Diekman.  Lincecum was also signed along the way but won't be ready for Opening Day.  It sounds like it's not Claudio because Banister likes him in other roles, but he won't name a closer to start the season.  It's a wait and see and pick your horse.

Angels - Was supposed to be Parker's job, but he's possibly lost that due to his horrendous spring.  Still no word from the manager himself.  Smart money seems to be on Bedrosian, but who knows with the spaghetti monster in charge.

 

Teams to keep a close eye on:

 

Twins - Because Rodney.  Also Reed is a good secondary option for them.

Mets - Familia is supposedly the 1A to Ramos' 1B, but who knows how it will shake out over time.  Also Holland rumors are popping up.

Royals - Herrera was shaky last year, and Maurer has closed some and could push him for the job.

Marlins - Ziegler is a junk closer on a junk team with some good young talent behind him.  

Phillies - Rumblings of using Neris as a fireman, but seems fairly solid in the job at this point.

 

These are my takes, anyway.

 

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crap! says those hoping for Leone to close in St.Louis.

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