affliction

Jay Ajayi 2018 Outlook

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9 minutes ago, BrianM said:

Matt Jones going to a SB winning team and carving out a useful role would be the most Redskins thing ever.   

 

As long as he's gotten over his fumblitis. 

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4 hours ago, devaster said:

Non-story. Who rents a mansion to an NFL player after the SB not expecting parties? House owner was just looking to make some additional money and publicity.

 

Except the article details "smoking" and that he has to pay a $5000 a day "smoking fee". Hell, if people want to come to the conclusion that Odell was doing something with a pizza crust, I'll return the favor here and say...drug test imminent? :)

 

Btw, If I decide to draft any Eagle running back, it will be Clement whose value in the double digits rounds and return of investment will be far greater than Ajayi because of where Ajayi is projected to be drafted.

Edited by nonstopfan
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DND!!! The eagles HC literally refuses to have a feature back he will literally call your grandma up and have her take 5 carries before giving any rb more than 10. Ajayi is a great back, in an awful situation. Worst rbbc in the league, worse than pats. 

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3 hours ago, Panthers8912 said:

DND!!! The eagles HC literally refuses to have a feature back he will literally call your grandma up and have her take 5 carries before giving any rb more than 10. Ajayi is a great back, in an awful situation. Worst rbbc in the league, worse than pats. 

 

I don't think Pederson "refuses to have a feature back". It's the system he employs. The same one that just won him a Super Bowl. And Ajayi is no longer a feature back. His knees are shot. 

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6 hours ago, South Carolina said:

 

I don't think Pederson "refuses to have a feature back". It's the system he employs. The same one that just won him a Super Bowl. And Ajayi is no longer a feature back. His knees are shot. 

Ajayi's knees aren't shot. He can be a feature back if a team wanted to give him the opportunity. He still hasn't even finished his rookie contract.

 

That being said, Ajayi isn't going to get the kind of workload he received two years ago in Miami for Pederson in Philly.

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I know there's that supposed bone on bone thing, but until he misses games or struggles, we can't call his knees shot.   He could be on borrowed time there, but time probably isnt up just yet.    For a guy with a question mark in the usage column, it doesnt help, of course, but he can't yet be taken to the glue factory either. 

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4 hours ago, devaster said:

Ajayi's knees aren't shot. He can be a feature back if a team wanted to give him the opportunity. He still hasn't even finished his rookie contract.

 

That being said, Ajayi isn't going to get the kind of workload he received two years ago in Miami for Pederson in Philly.

 

Yes they are. That's why they limit his practice time. But it doesn't matter in that offense. Dougy P would have 10 running backs if he could.

Edited by South Carolina

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25 minutes ago, South Carolina said:

 

Yes they are. That's why they limit his practice time. But it doesn't matter in that offense. Dougy P would have 10 running backs if he could.

They limit his practice time because of his knees, but not because they are "shot". If his knees were shot he would be done. It is to prevent wear and tear and prolong his career because his knees are known to be degenerative. When his knees will go is anyone's guess, but Ajayi has a bright career ahead of him.

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43 minutes ago, South Carolina said:

 

Yes they are. That's why they limit his practice time. But it doesn't matter in that offense. Dougy P would have 10 running backs if he could.

Looks like we know who the mansion owner is!

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2 hours ago, devaster said:

They limit his practice time because of his knees, but not because they are "shot". If his knees were shot he would be done. It is to prevent wear and tear and prolong his career because his knees are known to be degenerative. When his knees will go is anyone's guess, but Ajayi has a bright career ahead of him.

 

Your right. Let me clarify. His knees are not necessarily "shot". They are however a big concern for the medical staff and there are certainly issues there. It seems that the goal is to preserve him as long as they can. If you are gonna have bum knees it's a good situation to be in. 

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Very interesting recent statement from PHI Assistant HC/RB coach Duce Staley that Ajayi will be the Eagles workhorse RB this season.  If most felt that Ajayi would be getting 300 touches in 2018 (in the loaded PHI offense) he'd likely be getting drafted before pick 20 IMO.  A 35-year old Darren Sproles coming off a torn ACL and undrafted Cory Clement are the competition for touches, so it's not like an Ajayi 300 touch season is out of the question.  Will be watching this situation closely during TC and the preseason.

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9 minutes ago, J.T. Marlin said:

Very interesting recent statement from PHI Assistant HC/RB coach Duce Staley that Ajayi will be the Eagles workhorse RB this season.  If most felt that Ajayi would be getting 300 touches in 2018 (in the loaded PHI offense) he'd likely be getting drafted before pick 20 IMO.  A 35-year old Darren Sproles coming off a torn ACL and undrafted Cory Clement are the competition for touches, so it's not like an Ajayi 300 touch season is out of the question.  Will be watching this situation closely during TC and the preseason.

 

Well, that's not exactly what was said.  Staley said that Ajayi would be "the guy" in the backfield--but not necessarily a "workhorse."  Being "the guy" just means that you lead the rotation, but Clement will still be a change-of-pace back, and Sproles will still get work on obvious passing downs.  So it may be more like a 55/35/10 split instead of an 85/10/5--but I still like Ajayi to be a solid RB2 on the basis of his 5.8 ypc average last season, and the fact that he had a 10+ yard run in every game that he played for the Eagles last season.  Even if he's not getting every snap, he's explosive enough to turn 12-15 touches per game into 100 yards and a TD pretty frequently--especially with the kind of passing game the Eagles have to loosen up the linebackers.

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Also, Philly's a favorable offense and defense.  If things go to plan, they'll be protecting a lot of late leads, and Ajayi's probably getting those Q4 closeout carries. 

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PHI beat reporter Jimmy Kempski said "there's a good chance" PHI will "look to get their money's worth out of" Jay Ajayi & "give him a much higher workload than he had a year ago." Obviously it makes sense they’ll try to get their money’s worth and with his current ADP at #43, #20 overall running back in PPR (fantasy pros) I think he could return solid RB2+ value at a slightly discounted price. His knees don’t scare me as much because he won’t be a workhouse in a Pederson offense so he has a better chance at staying healthy and not being overworked. It might end up being a RBBC, but there have been plenty of times where a running back has finished as a RB1 in a crowded backfield (Dion Lewis, Kamara + Ingram last year alone). I just hope his price doesn’t slowly climb during the rest of the summer.

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5 minutes ago, coffey22 said:

PHI beat reporter Jimmy Kempski said "there's a good chance" PHI will "look to get their money's worth out of" Jay Ajayi & "give him a much higher workload than he had a year ago." Obviously it makes sense they’ll try to get their money’s worth and with his current ADP at #43, #20 overall running back in PPR (fantasy pros) I think he could return solid RB2+ value at a slightly discounted price. His knees don’t scare me as much because he won’t be a workhouse in a Pederson offense so he has a better chance at staying healthy and not being overworked. It might end up being a RBBC, but there have been plenty of times where a running back has finished as a RB1 in a crowded backfield (Dion Lewis, Kamara + Ingram last year alone). I just hope his price doesn’t slowly climb during the rest of the summer.

 

It will. Which is why now is the best time to get him before his ADP starts rising into the 3rd rd. 

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6 hours ago, joshua18 said:

 

It will. Which is why now is the best time to get him before his ADP starts rising into the 3rd rd. 

Good thing most leagues draft AUG/SEP

 

but yeah, the upside has always been there, great oline, defense, qb etc, but the coach hates feature rbs and as much as I would like to draft him on upside, I can just see getting pissed off the whole year when ajayi gets 15 carries a game. Oh look jay has another 5ish ypc he must be dominating! Oh wait he turned 12 carries into 70 yards and clement had 2 tds. Yeah DP!

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Just now, Panthers8912 said:

Good thing most leagues draft AUG/SEP

 

but yeah, the upside has always been there, great oline, defense, qb etc, but the coach hates feature rbs and as much as I would like to draft him on upside, I can just see getting pissed off the whole year when ajayi gets 15 carries a game. Oh look jay has another 5ish ypc he must be dominating! Oh wait he turned 12 carries into 70 yards and clement had 2 tds. Yeah DP!

 

I would be shocked if he didn't lead PHI in rushing TDs. 

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6 minutes ago, joshua18 said:

 

I would be shocked if he didn't lead PHI in rushing TDs. 

Me too. I just meant that there’s going to be weeks that you lose bc DP hates fantasy owners 

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Also, re looking at ajayi s stats post trade, he wasn’t a pass catcher at all then and def won’t be now with sproles. Value will only be there if all of blunts touches get transferred to ajayi. Goalie work in this offense will obviously be great but again idk if ajayi gets it

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This might be my hardest fantasy decision this year. Hopefully preseason sheds some light on it but again I don’t believe anything DP says. I do think ajayi hinder is talented though

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I love Ajayi as a player. I think he's the most underrated RB in the league. 

 

The fact of the matter is that he does not have the touch upside of the guys going in his range. He saw a little over 11 touches per game with Philly last year. Naturally, some of Blount's carries will find their way into Clement's hand. 

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8 hours ago, Panthers8912 said:

Also, re looking at ajayi s stats post trade, he wasn’t a pass catcher at all then and def won’t be now with sproles. Value will only be there if all of blunts touches get transferred to ajayi. Goalie work in this offense will obviously be great but again idk if ajayi gets it

I disagree with a couple things here. First, I doubt Sproles at 35 years old coming off a major injury is a huge part of the offense and if he is he will remain in a role that doesn’t really affect Ajayi’s likelihood to catch balls. The passing down back role will be Clement/Sproles/possibly Pumphrey while Ajayi should be ticketed for the Blount early down role with Clement factoring in a little here. Ajayi caught 16 passes in 10 games while splitting that role with Blount. I can certainly see him catching 2 balls a game now that he get a bigger part of that role. 

 

The second thing I disagree with is that Ajayi needs the entirety of Blount’s work to have value. Blount averaged 14.3 carries per game in the early down role prior to Ajayi’s arrival. I’d use that as the absolute floor for Ajayi’s carries. In the 10 games they played together, Ajayi averaged 11.2 carries per game versus 9.3 for Blount. If Jay only picks up half those carries that still get him around 16 carries per game which is 256 for the season. At 4.6 ypc (down from the 5.3 he averaged but up from the 4.4 Blount averaged) that gets him about 1180 yards on the ground. 32 catches for the season at 8 ypr ( career average is 6.9, average with Philly was 10.0) gets him 256 more yards for over 1400 on the season. I agree that getting the goal line role is a big deal for Ajayi as getting double digit tds could really propel his outcome into rb1 territory.

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Why so quiet in here? Contract year, are eagles going to give Ajayi all the workload he can handle? 250 carries? Duce said they want to make him a workhouse in that blurb up top...

 

Evan Silva has Ajayi ranked pretty high, #35 I believe in his top 150. "behind elite O-line, high TD ceiling" ..especially with blount and blount's 180 touches gone..

Edited by dannyz6969

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