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Kyle Gibson 2018 Outlook

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10 minutes ago, SoundMaster said:

anyone starting him against Boston today?

 

Giving it a shot.  He's held his own in some tough matchups (@NYY/@CLE/CLE) and he has shown a high K ceiling.  Given the changes he has made to his pitch arsenal/approach it is almost as though teams are facing a pitcher they have not seen before.  Banking on it at least making him usable against the Sox.

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Is there anything to see with this guy? He was cut loose in one of my leagues by an undoubtedly frustrated owner. His ERA/WHIP look solid, and his FIP/xFIP aren't bad. His k/9 has taken a significant step forward this year, but his walk rate is high. 

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2 hours ago, Flyman75 said:

Is there anything to see with this guy? He was cut loose in one of my leagues by an undoubtedly frustrated owner. His ERA/WHIP look solid, and his FIP/xFIP aren't bad. His k/9 has taken a significant step forward this year, but his walk rate is high. 

I own him in a league where we start 60-72 starters (league total of course). I still like him.

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anyone rolling him out there tonight?  tough matchup but think im starting him in a weekly league for his 2 starts...

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Preparing to cut bait... starting him tomorrow because if you can’t start an SP vs BAL then he clearly shouldn’t be on your roster. Anything worse than a 3.60/1.20 and a K per IP and I’d be too disappointed to keep him. 

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I'm certainly not prepping to drop. Last 2 starts have dissappointed but he's been a solid SP 4-5. If you're in shallow I can see it but in my 12 team he's a definite hold.

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Streamed him last night and was delighted by a dominant outing.  Is he for real?  A strong hold?  Never thought anything about this guy 

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I'm surprised there's no real love here. Past two starts he's (2-0) with a 2.40 ERA and 18 k's. Since August of last year (a solid 27 start sample), he has a 3.27 ERA (backed by a 3.73 FIP, 3.66 xFIP), 1.20 WHIP, 8.73 k/9, and 11.8% swinging strike rate. He's also give up 3 or less earned runs in 81% of those starts, so the Twins have had a shot to win whenever he's pitched. So, for fantasy, even though the wins have been tough to come by, that's something that can easily flip (he has won his past two starts). Overall, for the past 5 months Kyle's pitched like a solid SP3.

 

He's not an ace or someone I'd be super confident in, but ever since he improved his slider last year he's been really good. It shouldn't shock people if he continues to roll along as a top 50 pitcher. Nowadays, top 50 pitchers come with a lot of ups and downs., so I would advise against rage dropping if he has back-to-back clunkers post-ASB. Kyle does give up a good amount of loud contact, and he walks a lot of guys, but he does a good job of keeping the ball on the ground plus he gets k's. 

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25 minutes ago, Red Sox Nation said:

I'm surprised there's no real love here. Past two starts he's (2-0) with a 2.40 ERA and 18 k's. Since August of last year (a solid 27 start sample), he has a 3.27 ERA (backed by a 3.73 FIP, 3.66 xFIP), 1.20 WHIP, 8.73 k/9, and 11.8% swinging strike rate. He's also give up 3 or less earned runs in 81% of those starts, so the Twins have had a shot to win whenever he's pitched. So, for fantasy, even though the wins have been tough to come by, that's something that can easily flip (he has won his past two starts). Overall, for the past 5 months Kyle's pitched like a solid SP3.

 

He's not an ace or someone I'd be super confident in, but ever since he improved his slider last year he's been really good. It shouldn't shock people if he continues to roll along as a top 50 pitcher. Nowadays, top 50 pitchers come with a lot of ups and downs., so I would advise against rage dropping if he has back-to-back clunkers post-ASB. Kyle does give up a good amount of loud contact, and he walks a lot of guys, but he does a good job of keeping the ball on the ground plus he gets k's. 

Well said! I've watched a few of his latest starts, and his slider is devastating. It's a legit out pitch, which helps to explain how he is keeping his ERA manageable with the walks and loud contact. Totally agree he'll have his ups and downs, but in my roto league I'm starting him every time out.

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I watched with great pain and joy as he dominated last night as I went back and forth on starting him and went with Kingham instead.  But his peripherals are there.  If he had a good fastball he would have elite potential but it seems like he is a legit top 40 SP at the moment.

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So what are the expectations for Gibson post ASB? Last year, he had a bad first half...solid second half. In 2016, he sucked equally both halves. In 2015, he was very good in the first half before sucking in the second half. Looks like he's a total crapshoot after the break. 

 

Is there any reason to believe he can keep up what he's doing thru the final 2.5 months?

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The only thing I'm slightly worried about is fatigue... Here are his pitch counts for the last 7 starts:

 

118

103

105

113

86

109

113

 

Then again, he's supposed to be a horse at 6'6" and he did pitch 194 IP in 2015, where he finished 23rd in total pitches. Right now he's 22nd.

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You almost never fully trust the guys in the back end of your staff but he’s given you a lot more good than bad all season. 5ip 4er isn’t going to bury your week. As long as he keeps his ERA under 4 and keeps up the Ks it’s gravy. 

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3 minutes ago, KrunK said:

You almost never fully trust the guys in the back end of your staff but he’s given you a lot more good than bad all season. 5ip 4er isn’t going to bury your week. As long as he keeps his ERA under 4 and keeps up the Ks it’s gravy. 

 

Wont bury me, but was expecting better vs one of the worst offenses in baseball. 

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7 minutes ago, MayorMcCheese said:

 

Wont bury me, but was expecting better vs one of the worst offenses in baseball. 

 

Such is baseball my man hopefully he makes up for it next week. 

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I sat him too but that was an impressive outing. I am going to have a pretty long leash with his track record over the last 12 months and that slider. 

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Gibson is the sort of quiet value that gets you into the playoffs. Especially in Kp9 league

Edited by loro1991

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Isn't CLE next up?

 

It was tempting to pick him up, but BOS then CLE ouch.

 

The breakout looks legit, but really can't feel confident. If you sat him @BOS, you probably gotten sit him vs. CLE too.

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On 7/27/2018 at 1:07 PM, papasmurf said:

Isn't CLE next up?

 

It was tempting to pick him up, but BOS then CLE ouch.

 

The breakout looks legit, but really can't feel confident. If you sat him @BOS, you probably gotten sit him vs. CLE too.

 

Pending a trade he actually has Cleveland twice in a row.

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