Sign in to follow this  
Fantasy Dork

Jurickson Profar 2018 Outlook

Recommended Posts

4 minutes ago, tscherrer2 said:

 

 

Can you help me understand why not? I am open to changing my mind.

 

Do we agree a player breaking out is doing something they have never done before? The player is going above and beyond what they have done in their career.

 

What substantial gains has Profar made this year?  What abilities has he greatly improved upon? What new abilities is he showing?

 

I don't have a strong opinion, I am ready to come to the other side.

Hey man, I'm out right now but I will respond tonight. There's a lot of info out there but I'll tell you what I look for. 

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
1 hour ago, tscherrer2 said:

 

 

Can you help me understand why not? I am open to changing my mind.

 

Do we agree a player breaking out is doing something they have never done before? The player is going above and beyond what they have done in their career.

 

What substantial gains has Profar made this year?  What abilities has he greatly improved upon? What new abilities is he showing?

 

I don't have a strong opinion, I am ready to come to the other side.

 

I'll give some macro level thoughts -

 

Was formerly the #1 prospect in the game.  Obviously you have to have physical ability to have a ranking like that but a great deal of that ranking was driven by his baseball awareness and feel for the game.  His multiyear layoff due to injuries likely affected that just as much as it did his physical ability. 

 

The more he plays at this point the better he should get.   

 

Strike out rate is fine and he's walking which are good signs that he's getting more comfortable.

 

I've never seen him as a 25 hr type guy anyway,  more a 300 hitter with 15 hrs, on base skills, and 35 to 40 2b/3b power.  

 

Unrelated and just my opinion - Texas owes it to him to allow him to play everyday this year.   They bungled the hell out of his injury (misdiagnosed torn labrum) which cost him years of his career AND pushed back his service clock and opportunity to make money. 

  • Like 6

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
2 hours ago, 96mnc said:

 

I'll give some macro level thoughts -

 

Was formerly the #1 prospect in the game.  Obviously you have to have physical ability to have a ranking like that but a great deal of that ranking was driven by his baseball awareness and feel for the game.  His multiyear layoff due to injuries likely affected that just as much as it did his physical ability. 

 

The more he plays at this point the better he should get.   

 

Strike out rate is fine and he's walking which are good signs that he's getting more comfortable.

 

I've never seen him as a 25 hr type guy anyway,  more a 300 hitter with 15 hrs, on base skills, and 35 to 40 2b/3b power.  

 

Unrelated and just my opinion - Texas owes it to him to allow him to play everyday this year.   They bungled the hell out of his injury (misdiagnosed torn labrum) which cost him years of his career AND pushed back his service clock and opportunity to make money. 

 

I really like his bat to ball, and plate discipline skills. I can definintely see .300-20hr-15sb with lots of XBH. Good time to invest...

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Are y'all really hyping this dude up while he's 0-3 against the freaking Royals?  He is one of two Rangers without a hit.  

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
1 minute ago, DemOrioles said:

Are y'all really hyping this dude up while he's 0-3 against the freaking Royals?  He is one of two Rangers without a hit.  

 

He should have a hit in this upcoming at bat, right on queue. 

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Once Andrus returns from the DL will Profar be relegated back to the bench?  Wondering if I should try to deal him away prior to Elvis coming back.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
12 minutes ago, Magnus88 said:

Once Andrus returns from the DL will Profar be relegated back to the bench?  Wondering if I should try to deal him away prior to Elvis coming back.

 

He should go to 3rd base.  

 

Or start over Odor at 2b.

 

Or play lf with Gallo going back to 1b.

 

But the most logical answer is him to third base and Beltre to DH permanently.

  • Like 2

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
29 minutes ago, 96mnc said:

 

He should go to 3rd base.  

 

Or start over Odor at 2b.

 

Or play lf with Gallo going back to 1b.

 

But the most logical answer is him to third base and Beltre to DH permanently.

Then you have to play Choo somewhere too..

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
1 hour ago, Yceman1234 said:

Then you have to play Choo somewhere too..

 

I'd play choo in the OF.

  • Like 1

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

I find Profar somewhat fascinating. If you looks at his stat line to date, it's mediocre at best. And among fantasy "gurus", their take on Profar is usually quite dismissive. Despite the former top prospect status, everyone just assumes he sucks now. So he really doesn't get much love. And yet, if you look at the breakdown of his stats to date, it's generally quite good. His walk rate is solid. His K-rate is decent and better than career averages. The main knock on Profar as a fantasy player was the lack of any true standout skill. He seemed like a pretty good hitter with some power and some speed, but generally no one thought he'd be a great power hitter or big basestealer. So while he was regarded as a good prospect, he was not regarded as high in fantasy circles. And then he got hurt. For quite some time. And when he came back, he seemed to have even less power than before.

 

But he just hit his 18th double on the year, two off the league lead. And he has 4 triples too, also two off the league lead. And he wasn't even playing regularly at the start of the year. So that's kind of impressive. He's still not hitting homers. It's the proverbial "doubles" power. But it's something. His batting line is mainly hurt by a .235 (somewhat mitigated in OBP leagues by his walks). But he's not really a bad hitter. his BABIP is .268. Which seems low given his line drive rate of 22.4 % and the fact he's not an extreme fly ball hitter and that's he's reasonably fast.  So it just seems like he should be better (although Statcast does not like him very much).

 

I know things aren't this simple, but if his BABIP was .308 instead of .268, his slash line might look more like .275 /350/.447 rather than the .235/.310/.417 it is now. Which still might not be great fantasy wise. But it's not terrible for a middle infielder either. Of course, one wonders if and where he'll play in a few weeks when Andrus gets back. 

 

Bottom line, he's somewhat interesting, but I'm not all together sold either. So he ends up being a somewhat wait and see for me. If I have the room, I don't mind using a roster spot on him. But if better options come a long, I'll probably cut him then too.

  • Like 4

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

They really should bench Odor and allow Profar to play every day.  He takes consistent, quality ABs and there's no reason he can't be a .775-.800 OPS kind of hitter at some point.  Odor is simply awful.  Profar is showing a little something this year, even if the triple slash isn't ideal.  I like the quality of his ABs, just needs to keep playing the whole year.

  • Like 1

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
4 hours ago, mjk356 said:

They really should bench Odor and allow Profar to play every day.  He takes consistent, quality ABs and there's no reason he can't be a .775-.800 OPS kind of hitter at some point.  Odor is simply awful.  Profar is showing a little something this year, even if the triple slash isn't ideal.  I like the quality of his ABs, just needs to keep playing the whole year.

 

They just paid Odor a ton of $, no way would they ever just bench him every day.   I could see them benching Odor vs. certain LHP, but no way to they just hand the job to Profar (although he deserves it over Odor).

 

The path to everyday ABs would seem most likely at 3B, but don't forget they also have the Kiner-Falefa kid who is playing 3B and proving he deserves playing time in a super utility role.  Kiner-Folefa stands in the way of Profar getting any kind of consistent at bats as a super utility guy and even if they option Kiner-Falefa, Profar has clearly stated he wants to be an everyday SS and the super utility role messes with his head and affects his hitting.  Hopefully Profar gets traded because he has no future in this log jam once Andrus returns.

Edited by El_Chingon
Language

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Hit his 4th homer last night to go with 18 doubles and 4 triples on the season. He's actually tied for 4th in the American League in doubles (Jose Abreu leads the league with 21), and tied for 3rd in the American League in triples (Yolmer Sanchez leads the league with 6). 

 

Unfortunately for those who aren't in leagues that count XBH, or doubles/triples as individual categories, he's basically been treading water with a .230/.310/.420 slash line over the last several weeks. 

 

His slugging % is gradually rising, pushing his OPS towards the .750 range. 

 

Still not a mixed league asset, but I've been enjoying the ride in AL Only and I remain hopeful there is more upside here than we've seen just yet. I remember always hearing about how the ball flies out of the park in Arlington in the dog days of summer, so if a few more of those doubles and triples can sneak over the wall we could be looking at a 15 homer guy by year's end. 

  • Like 1

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
On 6/3/2018 at 1:15 AM, Jericho said:

I find Profar somewhat fascinating. If you looks at his stat line to date, it's mediocre at best. And among fantasy "gurus", their take on Profar is usually quite dismissive. Despite the former top prospect status, everyone just assumes he sucks now. So he really doesn't get much love. And yet, if you look at the breakdown of his stats to date, it's generally quite good. His walk rate is solid. His K-rate is decent and better than career averages. The main knock on Profar as a fantasy player was the lack of any true standout skill. He seemed like a pretty good hitter with some power and some speed, but generally no one thought he'd be a great power hitter or big basestealer. So while he was regarded as a good prospect, he was not regarded as high in fantasy circles. And then he got hurt. For quite some time. And when he came back, he seemed to have even less power than before.

 

But he just hit his 18th double on the year, two off the league lead. And he has 4 triples too, also two off the league lead. And he wasn't even playing regularly at the start of the year. So that's kind of impressive. He's still not hitting homers. It's the proverbial "doubles" power. But it's something. His batting line is mainly hurt by a .235 (somewhat mitigated in OBP leagues by his walks). But he's not really a bad hitter. his BABIP is .268. Which seems low given his line drive rate of 22.4 % and the fact he's not an extreme fly ball hitter and that's he's reasonably fast.  So it just seems like he should be better (although Statcast does not like him very much).

 

I know things aren't this simple, but if his BABIP was .308 instead of .268, his slash line might look more like .275 /350/.447 rather than the .235/.310/.417 it is now. Which still might not be great fantasy wise. But it's not terrible for a middle infielder either. Of course, one wonders if and where he'll play in a few weeks when Andrus gets back. 

 

Bottom line, he's somewhat interesting, but I'm not all together sold either. So he ends up being a somewhat wait and see for me. If I have the room, I don't mind using a roster spot on him. But if better options come a long, I'll probably cut him then too.

 

I gotta nitpick here.  He was very highly regarded as a potential .300 20/20 guy at SS when there was scarcity at the position and before Correa, Lindor, Russell, Machado, etc broke into the league.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
On 6/3/2018 at 2:15 AM, Jericho said:

So while he was regarded as a good prospect, he was not regarded as high in fantasy circles. And then he got hurt. For quite some time.

 

14 minutes ago, sportsfreak2744 said:

 

I gotta nitpick here.  He was very highly regarded as a potential .300 20/20 guy at SS when there was scarcity at the position and before Correa, Lindor, Russell, Machado, etc broke into the league.

 

He was regarded by many as the #1 prospect in the game. http://mlb.mlb.com/mlb/prospects/watch/y2012/

 

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
On 6/3/2018 at 1:15 AM, Jericho said:

I find Profar somewhat fascinating. If you looks at his stat line to date, it's mediocre at best. And among fantasy "gurus", their take on Profar is usually quite dismissive. Despite the former top prospect status, everyone just assumes he sucks now. So he really doesn't get much love. And yet, if you look at the breakdown of his stats to date, it's generally quite good. His walk rate is solid. His K-rate is decent and better than career averages. The main knock on Profar as a fantasy player was the lack of any true standout skill. He seemed like a pretty good hitter with some power and some speed, but generally no one thought he'd be a great power hitter or big basestealer. So while he was regarded as a good prospect, he was not regarded as high in fantasy circles. And then he got hurt. For quite some time. And when he came back, he seemed to have even less power than before.

 

But he just hit his 18th double on the year, two off the league lead. And he has 4 triples too, also two off the league lead. And he wasn't even playing regularly at the start of the year. So that's kind of impressive. He's still not hitting homers. It's the proverbial "doubles" power. But it's something. His batting line is mainly hurt by a .235 (somewhat mitigated in OBP leagues by his walks). But he's not really a bad hitter. his BABIP is .268. Which seems low given his line drive rate of 22.4 % and the fact he's not an extreme fly ball hitter and that's he's reasonably fast.  So it just seems like he should be better (although Statcast does not like him very much).

 

I know things aren't this simple, but if his BABIP was .308 instead of .268, his slash line might look more like .275 /350/.447 rather than the .235/.310/.417 it is now. Which still might not be great fantasy wise. But it's not terrible for a middle infielder either. Of course, one wonders if and where he'll play in a few weeks when Andrus gets back. 

 

Bottom line, he's somewhat interesting, but I'm not all together sold either. So he ends up being a somewhat wait and see for me. If I have the room, I don't mind using a roster spot on him. But if better options come a long, I'll probably cut him then too.

 

I didn't read your post from Sunday before writing my post this morning. Looks like we picked up on many of the same things...

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
1 hour ago, sportsfreak2744 said:

 

I gotta nitpick here.  He was very highly regarded as a potential .300 20/20 guy at SS when there was scarcity at the position and before Correa, Lindor, Russell, Machado, etc broke into the league.

 

1 hour ago, smeeze said:

 

 

He was regarded by many as the #1 prospect in the game. http://mlb.mlb.com/mlb/prospects/watch/y2012/

 

 

Which was my point. As smeeze linked to, many ranked him the #1 prospect in "real" baseball once upon a time. I doubt there's ever really a full consensus, but it seemed like we was generally considered the best prospect. Meanwhile, in fantasy circles, he was never really the "top" guy. A good player for sure, but even if you end up going .300 20/20 (which is a pretty high-end outcome), it's not likely the best fantasy player. He was more like a top 15 guy in fantasy and a top 3 guy in real life.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
6 minutes ago, Jericho said:

 

 

Which was my point. As smeeze linked to, many ranked him the #1 prospect in "real" baseball once upon a time. I doubt there's ever really a full consensus, but it seemed like we was generally considered the best prospect. Meanwhile, in fantasy circles, he was never really the "top" guy. A good player for sure, but even if you end up going .300 20/20 (which is a pretty high-end outcome), it's not likely the best fantasy player. He was more like a top 15 guy in fantasy and a top 3 guy in real life.

 

When he was coming up though, .300 20/20 from SS was considered gold so he was very much considered a top fantasy prospect.  It was before all the great, young shortstops of today's game began playing and when SS had a huge drop-off in talent after Tulowitzki.  It was also obviously well before the "juiced" ball era we are currently in.  So in a sense, some of his perceived value was tied to the positional scarcity that seemed like it wasn't about to drastically change.  

 

 

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

i don't get the [mild] hype around profar. i don't hate him, but i don't see any major breakout on the horizon.

everyone claiming that he could/should be a .300 hitter, have you looked at his minor league history? his highest BA *ever* was .286 back in 2011 in A ball.

i have generally the same concern over those expecting BABIP regression to repair his slash line. his current, full season 2018 BABIP is .258, which on the surface seems kind of low. but when you look at this MLB career, he's got a BABIP of .272 over a sample size of 940 PA. sure, there's room to improve from current line, but he's never shown at the major league level he's going to produce even a league average (.294) BABIP, let alone anything better. i recognize there was injuries, etc. but the fact remains that he has almost 1000 plate appearances in the majors and a BABIP that's roughly 10% less than league average.

he does have several minor league stints where he's produced a BABIP north of .300 with a .280-ish BA. so there's room for optimism.. i'm just not sure i would expect more.

his eye at the plate is pretty good, but his 8.6% BB rate is roughly the same as league average, while his 14.9% K rate is much better than league average of 22%.

most likely scenario, he's a .280/.330 guy with maybe 10 HR and 10 SB over a full season. nothing to sneeze at, but certainly not an "in demand" type guy, IMO.

  • Like 2

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
12 hours ago, mjb03003 said:

Hit his 4th homer last night to go with 18 doubles and 4 triples on the season. He's actually tied for 4th in the American League in doubles (Jose Abreu leads the league with 21), and tied for 3rd in the American League in triples (Yolmer Sanchez leads the league with 6). 

 

Unfortunately for those who aren't in leagues that count XBH, or doubles/triples as individual categories, he's basically been treading water with a .230/.310/.420 slash line over the last several weeks. 

 

His slugging % is gradually rising, pushing his OPS towards the .750 range. 

 

Still not a mixed league asset, but I've been enjoying the ride in AL Only and I remain hopeful there is more upside here than we've seen just yet. I remember always hearing about how the ball flies out of the park in Arlington in the dog days of summer, so if a few more of those doubles and triples can sneak over the wall we could be looking at a 15 homer guy by year's end. 

 

2 bombs already tonight. ?

  • Like 1

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

I dunno, these are the types of guys you go in on, hard.  Best case scenario you get a stud for free, worst case scenario you ride a hot streak.  Pedigree is there.

Edited by ShaneMT

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Arbitrary endpoints, SSS, and all the other caveats apply here, but check this out:

 

Season: 29 runs, 6 HR, 33 RBI, 3 SB, .243/.775

Last 30 days: 19 runs, 5 HR, 20 RBI, 2 SB, .260/.869

Last 14 days: 10 runs, 3 HR, 7 RBI, 0 SB, .261/.950

Last 7 days: 5 runs, 3 HR, 6 RBI, 0 SB, .304/1.116

 

 

 

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

When Andrus comes back how often does Profar play?  Best case scenario could he take over at Second for Odor?

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
7 hours ago, Magnus88 said:

When Andrus comes back how often does Profar play?  Best case scenario could he take over at Second for Odor?

 

As stated in my post above, this will not happen.  Profar has no future on the Rangers.  Best case scenario he will move elsewhere so he can have a full-time SS gig.  They already have an outstanding utility guy with Kiner Falefa, and Profar has stated he has no interest in a utility role and he sucked at it when he tried the past couple years.  Platooning destroys his rhythm as a hitter and moreover he has proven he deserves a full-time gig somewhere.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
On 6/8/2018 at 7:12 AM, El_Chingon said:

 

As stated in my post above, this will not happen.  Profar has no future on the Rangers.  Best case scenario he will move elsewhere so he can have a full-time SS gig.  They already have an outstanding utility guy with Kiner Falefa, and Profar has stated he has no interest in a utility role and he sucked at it when he tried the past couple years.  Platooning destroys his rhythm as a hitter and moreover he has proven he deserves a full-time gig somewhere.

 

Saying Profar has no future on the Rangers seems a bit bizarre. He's still young, he has skills, and the Rangers stink. There's really no reason for the Rangers to just write him off. Now I'll grant you that he's best utilized at shortstop. And Andrus is a better fielder there and should play over him if he's on the roster. But that still leaves both 3B and 2B as possibilities.

 

I also find it weird you proclaim Kiner-Falefa as the solution as a utility infielder. He's been in the majors about 2 months total in his career and basically has done nothing in them. Now he can develop. And he does show promise. And the point is probably moot as Profar's not really going to be a utility guy. Or at least shouldn't be at this point in his career. But it's hardly like Kiner-Falefa is blocking Profar.

 

Considering how much the Rangers currently suck, there's no real reason they can't play both Profar and Odor. They should be playing younger players. Now that might mean benching some veterans, or hitting them at DH, or trading them. Beltre's contract is up after the year. Shin-Soo Choo should probably be moved, if at all possible. And even Andrus can opt out if he wants. So there are moves to be made.

 

It also wouldn't shock me in the short term if Profar takes over 2B for Odor. Odor has sucked for quite some time. His big money doesn't really kick in until next year, and the Rangers need to try and get him going again. It also seems the current manager prefers Profar over Odor. Not only has Profar been better, but he's hitting higher in the line-up. But outside of Mazara, Andrus, Beltre, and I'd also say Gallo, is there anyone else the Rangers really have to play at this point? Even Beltre can likely sit every so often. We'll see what the Rangers do, but I suspect Profar will find his at bats as long as he keeps up what he's doing.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Join the conversation

You can post now and register later. If you have an account, sign in now to post with your account.

Guest
Reply to this topic...

×   Pasted as rich text.   Paste as plain text instead

  Only 75 emoji are allowed.

×   Your link has been automatically embedded.   Display as a link instead

×   Your previous content has been restored.   Clear editor

×   You cannot paste images directly. Upload or insert images from URL.

Loading...
Sign in to follow this