SpecialFNK

Buy Low/Sell High 2018

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Max Kepler.

 

Hitting .257/.381/.587 with a .214 BABIP.  

 

Also running a 16.7% BB% and 9.5% K%.

 

He's only played 11 games (weather) so his counting stats look worse.  42% hard contact and 55% FB rates so far...

Edited by sportsfreak2744
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1 hour ago, AnonymousRob said:

I would look to buy DJ LeMahieu high. The guy is hitting homers and fly balls all of a sudden. He has 5 home runs and we're still in April. It's too soon to say this is a permanent change, but it's such a difference I'd be willing to buy and gamble on it continuing to some extent. He won't keep up this insane pace, but he can still hit 15 homers ROS while giving you a few stolen bases and a 300 batting average. Oh, and he might stick in the leadoff spot for the Rockies. Hello, runs!

 

15HR reasonable, but HR/FB ratio so far is 26.3% (Career 7.4%).  FB% 31.7% (career 21%).  Those should both regress.  OTOH BABIP is only .291 (career .350).  I'm still going with the preseason projections here on out, - 10-12 HR, 8-10 SB, .310 Avg, 80-90 runs. Useful, but not sure a buy high. 

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2 minutes ago, bluefrogguy said:

 

15HR reasonable, but HR/FB ratio so far is 26.3% (Career 7.4%).  FB% 31.7% (career 21%).  Those should both regress.  OTOH BABIP is only .291 (career .350).  I'm still going with the preseason projections here on out, - 10-12 HR, 8-10 SB, .310 Avg, 80-90 runs. Useful, but not sure a buy high. 

 

Not many people realize LeMahieu is 6'4, 215.  If the fly ball change is real, look out.

Edited by sportsfreak2744
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On 4/13/2018 at 11:01 PM, AnonymousRob said:

I'd be looking to buy high:

Jose Martinez

Hanley

 

buy high:

Didi Gregorious. The plate discipline gains are real

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1 hour ago, bluefrogguy said:

 

15HR reasonable, but HR/FB ratio so far is 26.3% (Career 7.4%).  FB% 31.7% (career 21%).  Those should both regress.  OTOH BABIP is only .291 (career .350).  I'm still going with the preseason projections here on out, - 10-12 HR, 8-10 SB, .310 Avg, 80-90 runs. Useful, but not sure a buy high. 

 

Oh damn, he's not going to hit 43 HRs? Drop him. 

Edited by taobball
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1 hour ago, sportsfreak2744 said:

 

Not many people realize LeMahieu is 6'4, 215.  If the fly ball change is real, look out.

Well just being big isn't really all that in terms of HR/FB. It obviously helps a players potential for power because leverage/mass.

As we already learned that from Jose Martinez. Its about efficiently transferring energy and momentum kinetically to the swing.

 

People calling Jose Martinez a FB revolution guys is mis-leading or using it as a synonym for Swing changing.  His Swing change was about more efficiently using his big frame to generate power. Not hit more FBs (Just go look at his minor league FB% to majors, no growth)

 

I haven't dug enough on DJ if he's done anything to his swing or mechances to more efficiently tap into power.

Edited by Slatykamora
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50 minutes ago, taobball said:

 

Oh damn, he's not going to hit 43 HRs? Drop him. 

 

To be clear, I'm a solid hold with him.  I have him in two leagues and am not looking to sell.  I just think I'm going to pocket this hot streak and expect about what I projected him for here on out.  Any better- great.  But his original projections are very useful.  His original projections are top 100 value.  

Edited by bluefrogguy
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Is Byron Buxton a buy low? Or are we assuming he's pretty much a second half performer at this point?

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1 hour ago, PhilaFanBoy said:

Is Byron Buxton a buy low? Or are we assuming he's pretty much a second half performer at this point?

yuck

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4 hours ago, PhilaFanBoy said:

Is Byron Buxton a buy low?

 

Yup

Edited by taobball
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This might look dumb in a month, but buy high: Javier Baez

 

Career BB%: 5.2

2018 BB%: 8.6

 

Career K%: 28.8

2018 K%: 20

 

Career BABIP: .330

2018 BABIP: .286

 

Career LD/GB/FB%: 18/44/37

2018 LD/GB/FB%: 28/28/43

 

Career soft/med/hard contact%: 19/49/31

2018 soft/med/hard contact%: 18/37/43

 

Career O-swing%: 42

2018 O-swing%: 42

 

Career Z-swing%: 68

2018 Z-swing%: 83

 

Career O-contact%: 54

2018 O-contact%: 63

 

 

 

 

 

Edited by street sharks
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On 4/17/2018 at 3:42 PM, PhilaFanBoy said:

Is Byron Buxton a buy low? Or are we assuming he's pretty much a second half performer at this point?

 

On 4/17/2018 at 8:00 PM, taobball said:

 

Yup

Was just about to post about him, I bought low on him today. He just started taking batting practice today, so he could be back at some point this week. 

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I did say that before hte migrains. Do monitor his mental condition. If he's healthy though I'm a buyer 

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On 4/17/2018 at 6:56 PM, cdd10 said:

yuck

what are you guys confused about on voting on my yuck response. 

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Sell High List

- Jed Lowrie

- Asdrubal Cabrera

- DJ LeMahieu

- Mike Moustakas

- Yasmani Grandal

 

Buy Low List

- Jose Altuve? (Might be able to get him at a slight discount with how horrible he's started in terms of 5x5 production. BA is there, but nothing much else.)

- Joey Votto (Hard to believe that this "slump" is going to last very much longer).

- Jose Ramirez (You've probably got another week to try and buy-low after his incredibly unlucky slow start. The balls he hits are now falling into the field, make an offer before his BA gets back up past .250.

- Travis Shaw (Another player who got off to an incredibly slow start, but has picked it up quite a bit as of late. He's walked a ton already this season and will be a lock for 25 HR, 90+ RBI again with Cain, Yelich, Braun all in the lineup.

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12 hours ago, I Miss Matt Cain said:

Charlie Morton is probably a sell high.  Love the guy but I doubt his value gets any higher than it is right now.

 

People like / trust Charlie Morton?

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2 hours ago, CORTEz said:

Sell High List

- Jed Lowrie

- Asdrubal Cabrera

- DJ LeMahieu

- Mike Moustakas

- Yasmani Grandal

 

Buy Low List

- Jose Altuve? (Might be able to get him at a slight discount with how horrible he's started in terms of 5x5 production. BA is there, but nothing much else.)

- Joey Votto (Hard to believe that this "slump" is going to last very much longer).

- Jose Ramirez (You've probably got another week to try and buy-low after his incredibly unlucky slow start. The balls he hits are now falling into the field, make an offer before his BA gets back up past .250.

- Travis Shaw (Another player who got off to an incredibly slow start, but has picked it up quite a bit as of late. He's walked a ton already this season and will be a lock for 25 HR, 90+ RBI again with Cain, Yelich, Braun all in the lineup.

 

Like all the sell highs.  I would just say once a big name sell low starts to to turn it around the window is closed since the “what have you done for me lately” wave rushes over. Jose Ramirez was drafted high, struggled for a week or two and the last two weeks is hitting .342 with four homers. No one is selling imo. Votto is a good one though: still struggling and you may catch someone wondering if he actually will be fine 

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On 4/17/2018 at 8:00 PM, taobball said:

 

Yup

agreed, some guys in similar situations might not be, but Buxton has shown major disappointment in the past that owners are probably pretty disgusted and thinking "why did I do this" would probably need to be in a 2 for 1 deal. 

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1 hour ago, merlin401 said:

 

Like all the sell highs.  I would just say once a big name sell low starts to to turn it around the window is closed since the “what have you done for me lately” wave rushes over. Jose Ramirez was drafted high, struggled for a week or two and the last two weeks is hitting .342 with four homers. No one is selling imo. Votto is a good one though: still struggling and you may catch someone wondering if he actually will be fine 

While what I ended up trading wouldn't exactly qualify as a buy low, I did manage to pry Ramirez away from an owner in my keeper league that was making it extremely difficult to trade for him last season.  So, regardless of what I paid for him, the opportunity might still be there.  It's looking like it's going to be closed for good pretty soon though.

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3 hours ago, My Dinner With Andre said:

 

People like / trust Charlie Morton?

I own Morton and like the guy but his xFIP is 3x his ERA.  Def try to sell high if you can.   Correction coming.  Or DL stint!

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No one thinks Charile Morton is going to finish with a 0.72 ERA  3X ERA is still sub 3 ERA. What exactly do you think Charlie Morton gets in a trade here? Its not going to be a top hitter or one the big ace's. Soo...

 

All the data is out there now. Everyone one of your league mates have access to it. Being ahead of curve is no longer having more information. Its about correctly interpreting the right information and weeding out the noise.

 

The question shouldn't be "has Charlie Morton been lucky/going to regress from a 0.72 ERA" Everyone knows the answer to that. The question is "is Charlie Morton going to be a great or really really good pitcher going forward and what can i realistically get for him"

 

 

Edited by Slatykamora
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4 minutes ago, Slatykamora said:

No one thinks Charile Morton is going to finish with a 0.72 ERA  3X ERA is still sub 3 ERA. What exactly do you think Charlie Morton gets in a trade here? Its not going to be a top hitter or one the big ace's. Soo...

 

All the data is out there now. Everyone one of your league mates have access to it. Being ahead of curve is no longer having more information. Its about correctly interpreting the right information and weeding out the noise.

 

The question shouldn't be "has Charlie Morton been lucky/going to regress from a 0.72 ERA" Everyone knows the answer to that. The question is "is Charlie Morton going to be a great or really really good pitcher going forward and what can i realistically get for him"

 

 

 

I think it's realistic that someone can really value Morton. I value Morton more than most it seems and would spend a bit more to get Morton in trade. But from talking around baseball I don' tthink Morton is a sell high. I don't think you're getting the right price for a guy who could be a top 25 arm while healthy. Not unless you can pair him with another player for that elusive big hitter/ace that you mentioned. 

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