SpecialFNK

Buy Low/Sell High 2018

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16 minutes ago, handyandy86 said:

There's definitely some degree of psychological factor to trading.  I like to make an offer for a player the morning after they had a huge game.  That might seem counter-intuitive in that the owner will be higher on the player after a good game, but I think in some cases you make them think they are selling high or selling you based on last night's results. 

 

"Buying low" rarely works because of the emotional factor that people want to feel like they are 'getting good value' for their asset.  Most owners aren't selling a struggling player for pennies on the dollar, even if they are frustrated and worried about that player, just due to the principal and psychological factor that you paid XX-amount and now you're selling for X-amount.  

 

You have to make that owner think that they are selling high to you.  A guy has a slow start and then hits a couple HR's, and you make an offer, all of a sudden that owner thinks they are selling you a player for a higher price today than you would have paid a day ago before the HR's.  Like anything this still has a high failure rate, but I've had some luck with this.

 

At the end of the day there are a lot more emotions that go into trading than just the value of this player, and you never really know how another owner values a player until you make an offer.  A lot of times you might think it's clear that one player is more valuable than another, but the owner might see it the other way around.  That's what makes buying and selling for a profit even harder, because theoretically anyone can be a buy low if the owner values that player differently than you.

 

Indeed.

 

It's more psychological than people let on.

 

I've become wary of signaling as well. Say for example I'm playing in a league with my friends. They know I'm no dope. So if I show interest in acquiring a player on one of their rosters the player immediately shoots up in price / becomes un-acquirable! That is to say, I'm signaling that said player is more valuable than currently perceived.

 

It's almost like poker. If you play like a shark, your leaguemates will treat you like a shark in trade negotiations. It'd probably behoove you to "lose a few hands", or to make a bad deal, only to later go for the kill when your leaguemates "let their guard down".

 

That's just been my experience. All leagues are different.

 

 

 

 

Edited by My Dinner With Andre
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14 hours ago, Jrick45 said:

Sell High Candidate: Yasmani Grandal?

 

#2 Catcher currently, still have to believe LAD will continue to utilize Barnes at some point. Seems like a great time to Sell High on this guy. 

 

Keep in mind, I say this as a Salvador Perez owner (Im sure there are many other Perez owners in a similar situation) 

 

 

I was in the same boat. I traded Grandal to a team needing a C for Godley. I needed SP. Maybe that gives you some idea what you can get in return.

Edited by Hatfieldodger
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Buy low - Manuel Margot

 

Yiu can probably get him for basically nothing at this point just because he had 2 bad weeks and got hurt.  If he gets back to last year or the hyped up potential he had at the start of the season he will Be well worth it though.

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17 minutes ago, Hatfieldodger said:

I was in the same boat. I traded Grandal to a team needing a C for Godley. I needed SP. Maybe that gives you some idea what you can get in return.

 

Thank you! I was actually targeting Godley or Lester 

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51 minutes ago, handyandy86 said:

"Buying low" rarely works because of the emotional factor that people want to feel like they are 'getting good value' for their asset.  Most owners aren't selling a struggling player for pennies on the dollar, even if they are frustrated and worried about that player, just due to the principal and psychological factor that you paid XX-amount and now you're selling for X-amount.  

 

Another thing I'd add: "Buying low" doesn't work when your counterpart thinks you are trying to buy low. Or that they believe they are selling low.

 

Your counterpart has to be under the impression they are selling high.

 

It's reverse psychology I suppose.

Edited by My Dinner With Andre
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Acuna is a pretty obvious sell high if there is anyone in your league that loves him.

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7 minutes ago, My Dinner With Andre said:

 

Another thing I'd add: "Buying low" doesn't work when your counterpart thinks you are trying to buy low. Or that they believe they are selling low.

 

Your counterpart has to be under the impression they are selling high.

 

It's reverse psychology I suppose.

 

I mean all of this depends on who you're playing against (Aside: I want to be in a forum members league next year. Need more leagues.). 

 

I typically know intimately the members of my Fantasy Football leagues and some baseball leagues and in those leagues I usually get far more trading done.

 

Someone said it in a different way that was more in the terms of game theory earlier, but I believe making fair trades and even trades is necessary for building your rep as a trader. Being the guy who just says "Hey, heard you need an OF and had extra SPs. Would you want my 6th best OF for your 6th best SP?" Maybe it's not the sexiest trade, but being a "needs-based" trader and appearing that way to your leaguemates is essential to me. Again my best examples are from Fantasy Football, but my best years I made some highway robbery trades, but I still make a ton of trades in that league primarily because I'm willing to work with owners and create smaller trades that we both think are beneficial and do very little.

 

Secondly, if all of your "counterparts" are so alienated by the idea that you're trying to trade or trade for players, you need to try and have more opinionated league mates. The majority of trades I've made have been fairly honest negotiations. If you're opinionated about players you can find players on the other guys team that you like more than them and vice versa. I'm not saying owners don't do initial research before making moves, but I've accomplished plenty of trades primarily with players I don't like by saying "Do you like this player" And if they say yes saying "Okay, let's make it work."

 

And then lastly, this is where Buy High and Sell Low become huge, especially right on turns. Particularly from owners that you don't know or do struggle to trade with. The primary example I like to use of Selling High is 2016 Justin Verlander. After two good starts after a rough beginning of the season, I bought into JV hook line and sinker. The "savvy" other owner pounced on his "Sell High" opportunity. All Verlander did for me was 178 innings of a 2.48 ERA and 200+ Ks. Jung Ho Kang hit 21 HRs for him... so I guess there's that. 

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9 minutes ago, pbjfb said:

Anyone selling high on haniger and Jose Martinez?

 

For some reason,I worry about Martinez health.Traded him and Nola for Strasburg.

 

  Of course,I'm more worried about Kapler screwing Nola than I am about Joses health:lol:,but I eliminated 2 question marks from my team for a SP I like/believe in.I think this is the year of Stras.

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19 minutes ago, Sidearmer said:

Acuna is a pretty obvious sell high if there is anyone in your league that loves him.

 

Only in a redraft.  Even then, I probably would not take the risk since we haven't seen what he can do.

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2 minutes ago, aifan27 said:

 

Only in a redraft.  Even then, I probably would not take the risk since we haven't seen what he can do.

 

I probably would. I said it with Torres as well, but primarily for this very reason I usually always sell prospects in redraft. Player's prices SOAR when they're called up and just saying "Well I held him and waited so..." is a great defense for raising the price. I'm not saying for nothing, because Acuna is a borderline top 100 player for me anyway. But if I get a top 50 or better offer? I'm probably gonna do it. And I think I could get that. 

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Just now, taobball said:

 

I probably would. I said it with Torres as well, but primarily for this very reason I usually always sell prospects in redraft. Player's prices SOAR when they're called up and just saying "Well I held him and waited so..." is a great defense for raising the price. I'm not saying for nothing, because Acuna is a borderline top 100 player for me anyway. But if I get a top 50 or better offer? I'm probably gonna do it. And I think I could get that. 

 

I was going to add that I would take a top 40 guy.  So I think we are mostly on the same page.  Your guess is as good as mine as far as his ROS numbers go.  Still feels kinda dirty selling him before he has a chance to prove himself.

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On 4/26/2018 at 4:16 AM, taobball said:

 

I probably would. I said it with Torres as well, but primarily for this very reason I usually always sell prospects in redraft. Player's prices SOAR when they're called up and just saying "Well I held him and waited so..." is a great defense for raising the price. I'm not saying for nothing, because Acuna is a borderline top 100 player for me anyway. But if I get a top 50 or better offer? I'm probably gonna do it. And I think I could get that. 

 

You say that, but will you really sell Acuna for Benintendi, Yelich, Ozuna, Pham, Marte?

They are basically top 50 players that play the same position as Acuna, with more proven track record. Yet I have trouble imagining accepting them for Acuna.

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2 hours ago, rlaalsrb said:

 

You say that, but will you really sell Acuna for Benintendi, Yelich, Ozuna, Pham, Marte?

They are basically top 50 players that play the same position as Acuna, with more proven track record. Yet I have trouble imagining accepting them for Acuna.

There’s not a chance in hell I wouldn’t accept Yelich, Pham or Ozuna for Acuna right now.. at least in a redraft. Those guys are proven top tier OFs. Acuna has played a total of 3 games in the bigs.

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Yeah, I'd take Yelich, Pham, Ozuna and Marte over Acuna for sure in a redraft. 

 

I'd take Acuna over Benintendi, though. 

Edited by absknicks
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57 minutes ago, Csiebert5 said:

 

There’s not a chance in hell I wouldn’t accept Yelich, Pham or Ozuna for Acuna right now.. at least in a redraft. Those guys are proven top tier OFs. Acuna has played a total of 3 games in the bigs.

yeah but are any of them on pace for 6 million home runs?! :)

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11 hours ago, WhiteSoxFan4Life said:

Sell Manaea, you should be able to get a kng's ransom.    He will regress to his talent level. 

1 - Why will be regress to his talent level from his recent production? 

 

2 - What is his talent level? 

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14 minutes ago, AnonymousRob said:

1 - Why will be regress to his talent level from his recent production? 

 

2 - What is his talent level? 

HIs talent level is above average, not elite.  But he is looked at as elite now.  Thus sell high.  Do you want me to give you a list of April superstars from the past?  There are people out there that would trust him as a number one or two and give you talent accordingly.  Now is the time to take advantage of that. 

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Buy low: Jose Altuve.  A quick glance into the Altuve thread here reveals owners are seriously disheartened by their top-5 pick failing to do top-5 stuff other than hit for average and score runs.  Dude will get to stealing and donging soon enough and this may be the last opportunity (read: Votto a week and a half ago) to get a discount.  No one is going to trade him for peanuts but you might be able to swing a guy taken in the second round and a high-value flier for him.

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On 4/23/2018 at 5:11 PM, AnonymousRob said:

Why are they about to fall off? 

With Acuna called up won't Tucker start losing PT as both are LF?

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28 minutes ago, AnonymousRob said:

1 - Why will be regress to his talent level from his recent production? 

 

2 - What is his talent level? 

 

For one, his babip is sitting at .143

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Manaea has been really lucky. He has a .148 BABIP and 98.2 LOB%. He’s allowing 36.6% hard contact which is not good.

 

His current peripherals support about a 3.50 ERA. That’s not bad, but if someone in your league sees him as an emerging ace you should sell high without a 2nd thought.

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On 4/25/2018 at 8:51 AM, Sidearmer said:

Acuna is a pretty obvious sell high if there is anyone in your league that loves him.

 

I have found prospects that start hot are the easiest sell-high candidates. People fall in love with the potential for greatness. I've already received an offer of JDM for Acuna + Nate Jones, but I need steals a whole lot more than power. If I could flip him for a top 20 pitcher I'd be over the moon. It's astonishing how high his value is now after a couple good games to start his career.

 

Flipping Joc for David Price a few years ago was one of a few moves that won me my high-$ league. One article written by who knows what fantasy writer comparing him to Trout was all it took to drive up his value. I mentioned he was available for starting pitching and took the best offer. Did the same thing with Urias after his call-up. Didn't end up saving my terrible team that year, but I still got huge value.

 

Holding Kopech now with plans to do the same. Let's say he comes up in a month and strikes out 8 in 6IP his first time out. I am selling as fast as I can to the highest bidder.

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