1972Miamidolphins

2018 Rotoworld Mock Real League

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23 minutes ago, FFCollusion said:

 T3 Top 5 WR's sounds great... hypothetically speaking of course.

DfDGqVfX0AUn4Wi.jpg

That’s a lot of risk. But I like it that someone is willing to burn a 3rd rounder in a deep league on him. You think xyz player (former Miami dolphin) will dig into his production? I know the playing styles are different but still. 

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3.01 ZidaneValor - Tyreek Hill, WR, Kansas City Chiefs
3.02 predator_05 - Derrick Henry, RB, Tennessee Titans 
3.03 mrblonde1984 - LeSean McCoy, RB, Buffalo Bills
3.04 CyberneticGhostOfXMasPast - Travis Kelce, TE, Kanas City Chiefs
3.05 DocJ - TY Hilton, WR, Indianapolis Colts
3.06 Ryan81 - Doug Baldwin, WR, Seattle Seahawks

3.07 FFCollusion - Josh Gordon, WR, Cleveland Browns
3.08  1972Miami Dolphins - Deshaun Watson, QB, Houston Texans.
3.09 Iron-cock - Allen Robinson, WR, Chicago Bears
3.10 boltup15 -  @boltup15 OTC.
3.11 Winky -  @Winky on deck.
3.12 ToO_BaD - 
3.13 PackersFan1979 - 
3.14 Br0kenB -

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1 minute ago, Iron-cock said:

3.01 ZidaneValor - Tyreek Hill, WR, Kansas City Chiefs
3.02 predator_05 - Derrick Henry, RB, Tennessee Titans 
3.03 mrblonde1984 - LeSean McCoy, RB, Buffalo Bills
3.04 CyberneticGhostOfXMasPast - Travis Kelce, TE, Kanas City Chiefs
3.05 DocJ - TY Hilton, WR, Indianapolis Colts
3.06 Ryan81 - Doug Baldwin, WR, Seattle Seahawks

3.07 FFCollusion - Josh Gordon, WR, Cleveland Browns
3.08  1972Miami Dolphins - Deshaun Watson, QB, Houston Texans.
3.09 Iron-cock - Allen Robinson, WR, Chicago Bears
3.10 boltup15 -  @boltup15 OTC.
3.11 Winky -  @Winky on deck.
3.12 ToO_BaD - 
3.13 PackersFan1979 - 
3.14 Br0kenB -

Haha, I guess the text wasn't necessary

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If anyone needs to PM me an upcoming list of picks that’s fine. I’ll be up at least another two hours and have no plans tonight. 

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Again - I’ll be up for another 3-4 hours if picks need to be sent to me.

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Jay Ajayi - RB, Philadelphia

In my book, there's a lot to like here... 

Ajayi's running behind a strong Oline, has a good WR crew stretching the field in all directions and a good QB.

He runs violent, can hit a long one here & there and he has receiving chops... 

Philly's other RBs are good to very good role players, but they're not lead guys...

There's always going to be other mouths to fill, but Ajayi will have the meat end of the stick this season.

 

I like the Eagles offense as a whole and expect they'll be scoring plenty.

I'm inherently wary of Ajayi, but he's another guy that has a good situation and legit possibility to excel.

 

3.01 ZidaneValor - Tyreek Hill, WR, Kansas City Chiefs
3.02 predator_05 - Derrick Henry, RB, Tennessee Titans 
3.03 mrblonde1984 - LeSean McCoy, RB, Buffalo Bills
3.04 CyberneticGhostOfXMasPast - Travis Kelce, TE, Kanas City Chiefs
3.05 DocJ - TY Hilton, WR, Indianapolis Colts
3.06 Ryan81 - Doug Baldwin, WR, Seattle Seahawks

3.07 FFCollusion - Josh Gordon, WR, Cleveland Browns
3.08  1972Miami Dolphins - Deshaun Watson, QB, Houston Texans.
3.09 Iron-cock - Allen Robinson, WR, Chicago Bears
3.10 boltup15 -  Adam Thielen, WR, Minnesota Vikings
3.11 Winky -  Jay Ajayi, RB, Philadelphia Eagles
3.12 @ToO_BaD - OTC
3.13 PackersFan1979 - 
3.14 Br0kenB -

Edited by Winky

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10 minutes ago, Ryan81 said:

That’s a lot of risk. But I like it that someone is willing to burn a 3rd rounder in a deep league on him. You think xyz player (former Miami dolphin) will dig into his production? I know the playing styles are different but still. 

 

It's a good question, really.

2013 isn't even relevant to statistical analysis at this point, but for what it's worth Stone hands Greg Little got 99 targets, Devone Bess got another 86, while T.Rich took another 52.  Granted this is in a year where CLE threw the ball 681 times.  What does that mean for the Browns in 2018?  Probably nothing, but I looked it up, and I'm just writing this as I go, if you care to follow my process.

 

In 2017 CLE threw the ball only 574 times, in 2016, 567.  I 'think' this is when Hue showed up? So that's the data sample I'm gunna focus on.

this gives us an average of 570 attempts for the CLE offense.

 

So, in his career year, Gordon accounted for 159/14*16=182 targets/681 = 27% target share.

27% of 570 = 154 targets. (Would have been 6th in the league among WRs last year, if he could maintain that %)

Looks like roughly ~105 targets went to RBs last year, another 120 to TEs.

That leaves us with realistically 570-120-105= 345 attempts to WRs.

 

You can split that as you wish, here's a breakdown of 2016 that I found:

 

2016 target breakdown 
Terrelle Pryor: 24.7% target share | 140 targets | 77 catches | 1,007 yards | 4 TDs 
Gary Barnidge: 14.5% target share | 82 targets | 55 catches | 612 yards | 2 TDs 
Duke Johnson: 13.1% target share | 74 targets | 53 catches | 514 yards | 0 TDs 
Corey Coleman: 12.9% target share | 73 targets | 33 catches | 413 yards | 3 TDs 
Andrew Hawkins: 9.5% target share | 54 targets | 33 catches | 324 yards | 3 TDs

 

Jarvis is 10 times the receiver Coleman/Hawkins are, so I expect him to see a significant increase.

Glancing at the league average, the #1 WR on any team seems to cap at a 30% target share when the skill drop is a cliff, and as low as 16% when there's no skill drop.  The highest duo I see was a 25%/25% split, with a lot of 24/16 splits, which I think is more in line with what we can potentially see in CLE.

 

The main flaw in all this, is that Tyrod is not your typical QB and I don't expect him to match the pass attempts of Cle's past 2 years.  As of now Tyrod is averaging *457 attempts per year over the past 2, but I think CLE is the best supporting cast he's ever had in his career, what that's worth who knows.

 

I'll be crude AF and just mash these numbers together (457+570)/2= 513 attempts.  I'm going to call it 500 to be on the safer side.  If Tyrod his 500 attempts this year, I think that would be a realistic goal or hope.

 

28% = 140 Targets

24% = 120 Targets

20% = 100 Targets

16% = 80 Targets

 

Personally, I don't think RB/TE targets are subject to total attempts, because they're more a product of game situation and design. (Zero proof to back this up)

Basically, I think the RBs will account for 24% (combined)

I think the TEs will account for 20% (combined)

That leaves us with 56% of the total pass attempts remaining for JG, JL, and the field.

 

I'd say JG is better than Pryor and should dictate close to 26%.

Leaving us with another 30% for Landry and the field.  The field pales in comparison to Landry, so if they're coming away with more than 8% (40 targets, roughly 3 a game) then I would be disappointed.  That leads me to believe Landry could be slated for 22% or 110 targets.

 

Food for though, in 2015 Tyrod Taylor was on pace for 434 attempts.  For 12 of those games Sammy Watkins was at 93/60/1047 which extrapolates to 124 targets, 80 catches, 1,396 yards.  That's a 21% target share for the record.

 

Josh Gordon has a 52% Career catch rate and a 17.25 YPR rate.

130 targets, 68 catches, 1,166 yards, 5.7 TDs.  218.8 Fantasy points, 16th overall last year in full PPR.

 

Jarvis Landy has a 70% catch rates and a 10.08 YPR rate.

110 targets, 77 catches, 779 yards, 4.2 TDs.  180.1 Fantasy Points, 24th overall last year in full PPR.

 

 

That's just my guess, but it's a complete shot in the dark. /shrug

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Love the Ajayi pick - I almost took Ajayi instead of Kelce

 

RB fantasy prospects officially fall off a cliff at this point - went with the “stud” over deciding between a bunch of other players (basically everyone that went after Kelce)

 

I like Ajayi a lot this year - really underrated after burning people last year

 

(Also considered Gordon - I assumed he’d go 3rd round, probably would’ve selected him myself if Kelce was off the board)

Edited by CyberneticGhostOfXMasPast
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26 minutes ago, FFCollusion said:

Josh Gordon has a 52% Career catch rate and a 17.25 YPR rate.

130 targets, 68 catches, 1,166 yards, 5.7 TDs.  218.8 Fantasy points, 16th overall last year in full PPR.

 

52% catch rate with terrible QB’s. Catch rate could definitely be closer to 62% looking at Tyrod’s career stats. 

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4 minutes ago, boltup15 said:

52% catch rate with terrible QB’s. Catch rate could definitely be closer to 62% looking at Tyrod’s career stats. 

 

Absolutely.  Tyrod's career completion percentage is 62%.  I've found when doing this type of projection/extrapolation math, if I don't add to many 'what ifs' people tend to take them more seriously.

I normally try to put the player at as much of a disadvantage as I can, so people don't waste my time trying to argue semantics with how I pick and choose numbers.

 

Either way the window would be 120-140 targets, 65-75 catches, 1100-1300 yards, and 5-8 TDs.  13th overall at WRs is.. admittedly a reach for these types of numbers, especially given his risk.  But.. he's flash!

 

If the rookie QB starts, then this all goes out the window anyways.

 

Hilton is the only other WR I would have even considered in the 3rd round.  Jay Ajayi was the pick I almost immediately made and was targetting when I first looked at the ADP's pre-draft.  But after going WR/WR, I wanted to just keep it going and shoot for the moon.  Plus this is the cheapest Gordon is likely going to be all draft season, after Hard Knocks, and some preseason, his ADP will sky rocket.  I wanted to take McCoy in the 2nd, so when he was sliding back to me at the 3rd I started to get excited, but knew it was too good to be true.

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7 hours ago, PackersFan1979 said:

Rashad Penny -Damn autocorrect 

 

@Br0kenB OTC

 

I saw Rashad Perryman and was wondering if there's some super sleeper hybrid RB/WR that came out of the draft I hadn't heard about. ?

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10 hours ago, FFCollusion said:

3 Top 5 WR's sounds great... hypothetically speaking of course.

DfDGqVfX0AUn4Wi.jpg

@1972Miamidolphins On The Clock
 

3.01 ZidaneValor - Tyreek Hill, WR, Kansas City Chiefs
3.02 predator_05 - Derrick Henry, RB, Tennessee Titans 
3.03 mrblonde1984 - LeSean McCoy, RB, Buffalo Bills
3.04 CyberneticGhostOfXMasPast - Travis Kelce, TE, Kanas City Chiefs
3.05 DocJ - TY Hilton, WR, Indianapolis Colts
3.06 Ryan81 - Doug Baldwin, WR, Seattle Seahawks

3.07 FFCollusion - Josh Gordon, WR, Cleveland Browns
3.08  1972Miami Dolphins - On the Clock
3.09 Iron-cock - 
3.10 boltup15 - 
3.11 Winky - 
3.12 ToO_BaD - 
3.13 PackersFan1979 - 
3.14 Br0kenB -

 

Had the Brown-Allen tandem last season in the Roto Expert's League, and it was quite deadly.

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11 hours ago, DocJ said:

3.05 TY Hilton

 

I had Baldwin typed out originally. If Luck is back this pick will look good, if he’s not, it won’t.

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32 minutes ago, CyberneticGhostOfXMasPast said:

@Br0kenB still OTC ? 

 

I wonder when the QB run starts ... Are you all really high on Watson?

 

hopefully I can get my picks in today - gonna be a crazy work week 

 

Yes, I messaged him.  

 

Remember you can always leave your picks with me or someone else who is on more frequently if you are going to be afk for 12-14 hours. 

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40 minutes ago, CyberneticGhostOfXMasPast said:

@Br0kenB still OTC ? 

 

I wonder when the QB run starts ... Are you all really high on Watson?

 

hopefully I can get my picks in today - gonna be a crazy work week 

The upside is there, I just watched his highlights from 2017.  He's definitely not afraid to take shots downfield.  

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Just now, 1972Miamidolphins said:

The upside is there, I just watched his highlights from 2017.  He's definitely not afraid to take shots downfield.  

 

Oh yeah, the potential is sky high (like QB1 fantasy MVP high)

 

guess I was just surprised at how high he’s ranked with such a small sample size - but I definitely see the appeal. 

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Sorry, just got back from vacation yesterday. Didn't realize we were starting so early. Let me take a look at the chart.

 

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