Phreedom32

Christian Villanueva 2018 Outlook

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52 minutes ago, The Big Bat Theory said:

 

Yeah keep that regression going then.  Love me his regression.

 

yeah there is nothing lucky about HR/FB rate, I think its one of the most overused stats.  He is hitting absolute bombs and lasers.  No luck there

 

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1 minute ago, TTRA1N said:

Is this dude foreal? Man this drop is going to haunt me all year.

 

I dropped Aaron Judge last year 10 games into the season, and held Greg Bird.  I'm not saying, but I am just saying

 

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Posted (edited)

its not just homers too Villa is now hitting .333 with an OBP of .423 and a OPS of 1.245, 2nd only to Bryce and his .822 slg is no 1 in baseball

 

Villa has now had 73 ML at bats, and has 9 hrs

Edited by Golden Spikes
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Rolled the dice on him when he got the call last season with my last roster spot in my deep dynasty league and he's done nothing but mash and continues to exceed expectations at the MLB level. Never thought I would be starting him at a Util spot in two of my 10 teamers this soon, but it looks like we might have something special here. I made a comment in one of my league chats after his multi HR game  saying he is the next Josh Donaldson who was also a late blooming 3B and had his breakout season at age 27. 

 

33 minutes ago, Golden Spikes said:

its not just homers too Villa is now hitting .333 with an OBP of .423 and a OPS of 1.245, 2nd only to Bryce and his .822 slg is no 1 in baseball

 

Villa has now had 73 ML at bats, and has 9 hrs

 

After last night's game,  he's now up to 10 career HR already in his first 77AB along with a shiny .338AVG. Obviously small sample size, but I'm anxious to see what he can do for the rest of the season. Could be one of the biggest pick ups of the year. 

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5 hours ago, The Big Bat Theory said:

 

Yeah keep that regression going then.  Love me his regression.

 

I did say he was a platoon start vs. LHP, which he again hit well off.  If you have bench space for vs. LHP platoon players then go right ahead.

 

Also his MLB HR/FB rate is now up to 43.5%, and 40% on the season.  For reference, the highest qualified HR/FB rate in MLB last year was Aaron Judge's at 35.6%.  Villanueva's BABIP is also .409, and he's pulling the ball 68% of the time.  Last year's BABIP leader was Avisail Garcia at .391 and Pull% leader was Gary Sanchez at 51.6%.  Judge, Sanchez, Garcia are all guys that are on or near the top of the Statcast exit velocity leaderboard, which is why they were able to sustain those rates.  

 

I'm not saying don't ride the wave while it's there, or he's a bum, but in a season-long sense he is going to regress, there's no denying that - nobody can keep up those rates.  I guess it's just a matter of how much he regresses and whether he remains fantasy relevant when he does, and unless he improves his hitting vs RHP and makes more consistent contact I don't see how he does.

 

 

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2 hours ago, summersoff7 said:

is this for real?

He's Latin Chris Shelton

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9 hours ago, BMcP said:

He reminds me of a young E Squared fielding-wise

 

His nickname was E5 for a reason.  Not E Squared.

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The question with Villanueva certainly is "regress to what?"  He's not going to hit .350 or slug .800, and there are certainly noticeable splits in the numbers right now.

 

It's only 26 ABs, but he's hitting .192/.323/.423 against RHP.  Some of that may be BABIP luck or whatever, and again ... 26 ABs.  You could live with that OBP if the slugging ticket up and he could hit .240 off RHP.  

 

He murders LHP right now.  @handyandy86 has already pointed all this out, I'm just reiterating, enjoy the ride against Ryu and Wood, and then hold and watch to see if the line improves against RHP.

 

If you're looking for positive signs, against RHP last September, also in a microscopic 19 ABs, he hit .316/.316/.684.  In AAA, he hit .303/.370/.553, so there's certainly hope it's legit.

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Posted (edited)

This train seems to be legit , offcourse he wont be this hot but i think 30-35HR/90-100RBI is well within reach here. At absolute worst you have a guy who you can put up against LHP no problem.

 

For me the biggest takeaway is that he has 6 HR @Home, @San Diego . This was the 2nd worst place to get HRs last year. Just think about that for a second and just add him imo. 

Edited by screaming_vultures

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1 hour ago, screaming_vultures said:

This train seems to be legit , offcourse he wont be this hot but i think 30-35HR/90-100RBI is well within reach here. At absolute worst you have a guy who you can put up against LHP no problem.

 

For me the biggest takeaway is that he has 6 HR @Home, @San Diego . This was the 2nd worst place to get HRs last year. Just think about that for a second and just add him imo. 

 

He was in the minor leagues for 8 seasons and never hit more than 20 HR, so what kind of metrics or changes do you think he's made to support the idea that 30-35 HR as a 26 year old MLB rookie is within reach?

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3 minutes ago, handyandy86 said:

 

He was in the minor leagues for 8 seasons and never hit more than 20 HR, so what kind of metrics or changes do you think he's made to support the idea that 30-35 HR as a 26 year old MLB rookie is within reach?

 

In fairness, he hit 20 HRs in a shade over 100 Games which is a 30 HR pace and the Juiced ball is really all you need to make the argument that in his upside he could hit 30. 

 

Most positives I can take from Villaneuva right now come mostly from the fact that I think he's been a reasonably talented minor leaguer throughout his career and had decent AAA stats this past year. He may be a fluke, but unlike Davidson where we had the entire 2017 data set to build opinions off of, Villaneuva is very much more someone that we have very little information about from a pro stats perspective. 

 

I'd be holding. At least til I have more data points and more opportunities to see if he gets exposed or not. 

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i fully expect him to get exposed but if you are churning the bottom of your roster there's nothing to lose. this is the time of year to be aggressive. 

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I dealt him for Reynaldo Lopez yesterday before either played, if anyone wants a gauge of what you can flip him for.  

 

and who cares when he regresses? Nobody knows when that will happen.  Could be next week, could be July, could be next season.  Just ride the wave for as long as you can.  

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Posted (edited)

Padre homer here and also a Villanueva owner.  He has too much pedigree (was highly thought of in 2 organizations) and good minor league performance to simpy write off as a Tuffy Rhodes clone.  At the same time, he's an absolute butcher at 3B.  I watch virtually every Padre game and I've been surprised at how bad he's been as some of the early scouting reports (low minors) suggested he was adequate at worst, and possibly a plus defender.  Alas, that was in his early 20s and it's clear to me that the defense instincts aren't there.  I bring this up because as soon as he cools off, he becomes a liability, and with Urias probably in San Diego by early May, Spangenberg/Asuaje are both superior defenders at 3B and won't have a place to play.  

 

That said, I'm along for the ride, and if that bat is 25-30 HRs, perhaps Andy Green is willing to sacrifice defense since he'll have plus defenders at the other 3 infield spots.  

Edited by tommyGunZ
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Posted (edited)
10 hours ago, tommyGunZ said:

Padre homer here and also a Villanueva owner.  He has too much pedigree (was highly thought of in 2 organizations) and good minor league performance to simpy write off as a Tuffy Rhodes clone.  At the same time, he's an absolute butcher at 3B.  I watch virtually every Padre game and I've been surprised at how bad he's been as some of the early scouting reports (low minors) suggested he was adequate at worst, and possibly a plus defender.  Alas, that was in his early 20s and it's clear to me that the defense instincts aren't there.  I bring this up because as soon as he cools off, he becomes a liability, and with Urias probably in San Diego by early May, Spangenberg/Asuaje are both superior defenders at 3B and won't have a place to play.  

 

That said, I'm along for the ride, and if that bat is 25-30 HRs, perhaps Andy Green is willing to sacrifice defense since he'll have plus defenders at the other 3 infield spots.  

 

Im honestly surprised by how bad he is on defense. He stole like 25-30 bases I think one year when he was young. He's an underrated athlete (or was) so just surprising he's such a butcher.

Edited by taobball

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4 minutes ago, Carlos Correa said:

Had a homer robbed by Chris Taylor off of Jansen.

 

I guess this is where that HR/FB rate luck factors in lol

 

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Crushed that pitch off Jansen. Thought for sure it was out. I'm starting to believe the breakout is in full effect. I don't even care what his track record is or if he was in the minors all those years. Dude can rake. 

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CV throws the ball away after charging a soft grounder and cost the Padres 2 runs in the first.  Again, my office literally looks into Petco Park and I watch 150+ Padre games per year, so I’d like nothing more than to find a 30 HR 3B seemingly out of nowhere.  Hell - it’s probably the most shallow position in the whole organization, with their best prospect just arriving in High A.  But this is getting old, fast.  

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2 minutes ago, tommyGunZ said:

CV throws the ball away after charging a soft grounder and cost the Padres 2 runs in the first.  Again, my office literally looks into Petco Park and I watch 150+ Padre games per year, so I’d like nothing more than to find a 30 HR 3B seemingly out of nowhere.  Hell - it’s probably the most shallow position in the whole organization, with their best prospect just arriving in High A.  But this is getting old, fast.  

 

Ouch.  It's tough to hit well enough to make up for doing stuff like this too frequently.

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This dude could be in the runnings for FA pick up of the year by season's end.

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65% pull rate in the early going and his MiLB data backs that up.  Very low contact rates and high O-Swing% also.  Struggling vs. the curve.  I know I just praised SD minor league coaching but maybe he is not applying the lessons.  Like his hard and soft hit numbers though.  I haven't seen his D but I'll take others' lead on its butchery.  Maybe they can hide him in LF.  IF defense is too critical to have guys learning new and better routines on the MLB job.

 

I agree that he is a fantasy hold though.

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