Phreedom32

Christian Villanueva 2018 Outlook

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43 minutes ago, Golden Spikes said:

remember he was once a top prospect, and only never got a shot cause of some guy name Kris Bryant

 

 

Even before KB, he was a prospect Texas felt they needed to get rid of because of Beltre. 

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I know we're dealing with very small sample sizes here, but I'm failing to see much of anything to like here with Villanueva.  It's somewhat convenient to say he's been blocked by talented players in front of him and that's the only reason why he's nearly 27 and just breaking into MLB now, because he has always (and still does) have a lot of holes in his game.  MiLB advanced stats and splits are much less complete than what we have at the MLB level, but based on what I can find he's always been someone that struggles with RHP, and overall making consistent contact.

 

From 2009 through 2015 he spent 6 seasons slowly working his way up through the minors, from Rookie ball to AAA, and hit a combined .264 AVG / .328 OBP, which is OK, but nothing to write home about.  2015 was his only full year in AAA and he hit .259 AVG / .313 OBP, and then broke his fibula during ST in 2016 and missed the whole year.  The Cubs must not have thought too much of him as he was non-tendered and signed with SD and put up a better .296 AVG / .369 OBP season in AAA in 2017.

 

His MLB time has given a SSS to look at, but so far some pretty glaring holes include:

- His K% and BB% have been considerably worse in MLB, with a 32.5% K rate and 5% BB rate.  His MiLB K and BB rates weren't this bad, so there is some hope that he improves as he gets used to MLB pitching, but for the short term these numbers scream regression. 

- His PD and Whiffs have been quite bad as well.  He has a 38.2% O-Swing% so far in this young season, and he is Whiffing on basically everything - 50% whiff/swing on breaking balls, 41.67% on off-speed pitches, and 28% on fastballs.

- He's an extreme pull hitter with a tendency to hit a lot of fly balls, and a very high IFFB% that stayed true all through his MiLB career.  He's also been quite lucky in his short MLB career, with about a 43% HR/FB rate and .368 BABIP.  For reference, even a career pull-heavy, fly-ball, power hitting player like Adam Dunn had a 22% HR/FB rate, so Villanueva is certainly in for some regression there.

- He does almost all of his damage vs. LHP, and his LHP/RHP splits show a .429 AVG vs .244 AVG, and 0.2 HR/PA vs 0.06 HR/PA.  This past weekend vs. SF he did almost all of his damage off left handers Blach, D. Holland, and Osich.  

 

I know we are looking at very small sample sizes so far, and I'm not trying to say he's a bad hitter that will never improve.  But what I am saying is that so far he has shown a lot of holes, with his tendency to chase bad pitches, high K/BB, pull tendencies, platoon splits, and that he's in for some regression in HR/FB numbers.  He made a slow but steady rise through the minors, and if there is a positive takeaway from his MiLB stats it's that he always struggled in his first year at a new level, and then showed improvements the next year.  So he may end up being a decent MLB hitter, but I don't think that happens soon enough for him to valuable in redraft leagues this year.  For dynasty he's likely a guy to hold onto, since I think he has a shot at adjusting to MLB pitching and getting his K/BB rate down and improving on his hitting vs. RHP.

 

TL;DR

Villanueva is striking out a lot, not walking much, has huge platoon splits, chases and whiffs a lot, and is getting very lucky with his HR/FB rate.  Everything screams regression in the short term.  At best I'd start him in a daily league vs. LHP and hold in dynasty, but to me he's not an interesting option in most standard sized redraft leagues this year.

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Faces lefties the next two days (Ryu today and Wood tomorrow), has been crushing lefties so added him for these games. Hard to hold a roster spot for him if he is only good against lefties though.

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Much of my roster is suspended or injured and I need offense, so regression be dammed, keep it rolling Villy !!! :D

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He went third deck of the Western Metal Supply Co. 

 

JS 

 

:D

 

 

 

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Man this guy has no idea how to field 

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13 minutes ago, BMcP said:

Man this guy has no idea how to field 

We don't score for that so whatever lol 

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1 minute ago, The Gridiron Assassin said:

We don't score for that so whatever lol 

 

Lol it will impact his playing time

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3 minutes ago, BMcP said:

 

Lol it will impact his playing time

 

Chase Headley was 1 for 23 (as of yesterday) as far as his competition right now

Edited by loro1991

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Yeah.  He still can’t play 3B.  But bringing up Headley was helpful.

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22 minutes ago, BMcP said:

 

Lol it will impact his playing time

If he hits, they'll find a place for him. 

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He is hitting - that isn’t the issue.

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24 minutes ago, BMcP said:

 

Lol it will impact his playing time

 

Is it really that bad?  Where are we talking on the scale from Ryan Braun to Scott Rolen?

 

 

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Just now, kittenmittons said:

 

Is it really that bad?  Where are we talking on the scale from Ryan Braun to Scott Rolen?

 

 

Luis Vulbuena lol

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He reminds me of a young E Squared fielding-wise

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3 minutes ago, BMcP said:

He reminds me of a young E Squared fielding-wise

Uhoh, that's definitely at the Ryan Braun end of the scale.

 

Sounds like it's good enough that he stands a decent chance to hit well enough to overcome it though... 

 

 

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Schooled by Anthony Cingrani.

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13 hours ago, handyandy86 said:

Villanueva is striking out a lot, not walking much, has huge platoon splits, chases and whiffs a lot, and is getting very lucky with his HR/FB rate.  Everything screams regression in the short term.  At best I'd start him in a daily league vs. LHP and hold in dynasty, but to me he's not an interesting option in most standard sized redraft leagues this year.

 

Yeah keep that regression going then.  Love me his regression.

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