Phreedom32

Christian Villanueva 2018 Outlook

Recommended Posts

the MVP needs to be back in the lineup tonight. Our fantasy teams need him. And so do the Padres.

Edited by ZChronicNebula

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
4 minutes ago, rrrrich46 said:

How are his underlying metrics fellas? 

 

Not good.

 

.440 BABIP to go with a 29.1% contact rate.  That 36.8% HR/FB% is also second in the league behind Davidson and would be higher than what Judge and Stanton did last season, so that won't last.  He is pretty much running hot in all of the huge lucky small sample size categories and showing negatives in the contact area.  It also looks like he swings at a lot of balls out of the zone 40.4% O-swing, so I think teams are going to start throwing him a lot more fringe pitches going forward to see if he will chase.

 

I own him in a few leagues, but I think the crash is going to be hard.

 

I just don't know what we are looking at yet.  I'm hoping for .275 with 25 bombs when the dust settles, but there are a lot of concerns here.  He did make much better contact in the minors, so I'm hoping that evens out and he strikes out less to soften the blow when the rest of those numbers even out, but I fully expect those homers to drop off quite a bit to go along with all of the other falls.  I'm also hoping that he doesn't completely crater when scouting reports catch up to him.

  • Like 2

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
20 minutes ago, rrrrich46 said:

How are his underlying metrics fellas? 

 

I was considering trading for him but I'm going to wait a month here's why (sorry to rain on anyone's parade -- I hate doing it):

 

I believe a large regression is coming:

-  He's 2nd in the league in HR/FB%: 36.8% -- Aaron Judge sat at 35.6% last season. His HR/FB% in the minors never even approached 30%. 

-  BABIP is sitting at .441 (remember HRs don't count towards BABIP) so even when you take HRs out he is still in crazy BABIP territory. Avisail Garcia was 1st last season in BABIP with .392

 

Also:

"It’s not all rainbows and unicorns for Villanueva. He’ got a 32% K% and a .440 BABIP which will drop as the season progresses. Pitchers gave him no respect to start the season by throwing him pitches in the strike zone (Zone%) 47% of the time and 68% fastballs. Over the last eight games, the Zone% has dropped to 43% and he now sees only 63% fastballs.

I’m really having a problem putting a future value on him. Projections all have him rest-of-season near a .240 AVG and 20 HR. A ton of regression seems to be baked into it. I’m taking the over and interested in how his next month goes." -Fangraphs

 

"Villanueva is completely selling out for the power and a reckoning is likely on the way. His 54% flyball rate is 9th in the league (min. 50 PA) while his 68% pull rate is 1st. His insane 40% HR/FB (tied with Bryce Harper for 4th-highest) obviously won’t hold up, but something north of 20% is definitely on the table. You will be completely unsurprised to learn that this approach has come with a boatload of strikeouts so far.

He has struck out in a third of his plate appearances thus far with a 17% swinging strike rate and 39% chase rate. The swing-and-miss serves as a counterweight to his league-high 238 wRC+ and between the two factors, the former is more believable. That is especially so if the league changes the approach to Villanueva. Currently, he’s seeing 62% fastballs (18th in MLB) and he has a .357/.471/.893 line against them with four of the six homers and a 27% K rate.

Look for him to get more breaking stuff as the book on him gets thicker. He has a 50% K rate in 12 PA ending on a curveball or slider. Curveballs specifically could be his kryptonite as he’s 0-for-5 with four strikeouts so far. It’s a tiny sample to go off, but the 27-year old is crushing heaters and his penchant for chasing pitches means curveballs might be the best chance at slowing him down." -Fangaphs

  • Like 1
  • Thanks 1

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
4 minutes ago, The Czar said:

 

Not good.

 

.440 BABIP to go with a 29.1% contact rate.  That 36.8% HR/FB% is also second in the league behind Davidson and would be higher than what Judge and Stanton did last season, so that won't last.  He is pretty much running hot in all of the huge lucky small sample size categories and showing negatives in the contact area.  It also looks like he swings at a lot of balls out of the zone 40.4% 

you had me at .440 BAIBP. Thanks Czar.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
1 minute ago, kidtwentytwo said:

Now that we’ve established thars regrsssion a comin’  Someone tell me when it begins ?

 

Probably not tonight facing a lefty in Colorado, but I'd go with the next homestand at Petco...

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
15 minutes ago, The Czar said:

 

Probably not tonight facing a lefty in Colorado, but I'd go with the next homestand at Petco...

Except that he is out of the lineup again, which is a bummer.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
17 hours ago, Golden Spikes said:

He’s not going to miss a lefty tomorrow mark my words

I marked your words. He's not playing like I said. Let's be better next time for everyone 

  • Like 2
  • Haha 1

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Damn they said it wasn even nothing him and was able to play Sunday after hurting it. And eligible to pinch hit. Time for amputation cause Padres can’t have nice things

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
1 hour ago, Dirty Little Birdie said:

any news on him?

Batting 3rd tonight. Unfortunately it's against deGrom. We got jobbed out of Coors stats. 

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

With a 1.219 OPS, of course he's going to come crashing down from that.  Literally nobody puts up those kind of numbers.   He could drop all the way down to .850 OPS and still be a great waiver pickup.  

 

His batted ball data looks pretty good with a 39% hard contact rate and only a 12% soft contact rate.  His hit tool looked pretty good in the minors last year. 

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

a HR in the first and another one robbed in the 2nd.

great leaping catch by Lagares.

 

  • Like 1

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

.352 with 8 bombs 

 

In and holding long before regression 

 

Keep it rolling kid ! 

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
8 minutes ago, Tugginroot said:

What are realistic projections here??  Josh Donaldson breakout?

I mean...it's possible.  I wouldnt be surprised.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Join the conversation

You can post now and register later. If you have an account, sign in now to post with your account.

Guest
Reply to this topic...

×   Pasted as rich text.   Paste as plain text instead

  Only 75 emoji are allowed.

×   Your link has been automatically embedded.   Display as a link instead

×   Your previous content has been restored.   Clear editor

×   You cannot paste images directly. Upload or insert images from URL.

Loading...

  • Recently Browsing   0 members

    No registered users viewing this page.