Phreedom32

Christian Villanueva 2018 Outlook

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17 minutes ago, summersoff7 said:

Lol at this steaming pile of trash.  choked when he thought he was doing well.  chump

 

Not like he cost anything aside from a waiver claim. Unless you traded for him :/

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11 minutes ago, loro1991 said:

 

Not like he cost anything aside from a waiver claim. Unless you traded for him :/

 

Basically every post summersoff makes is calling some player “garbage” or some derivant thereof - just ignore.

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26 minutes ago, BMcP said:

 

Basically every post summersoff makes is calling some player “garbage” or some derivant thereof - just ignore.

 

Have noticed a few regular negative nancies around here, must have bad teams this season lol

 

I don't expect much but think Villanueva deserves the chance to go through the adjustment phase just like other players get. The ones with good hit tool get through it, Villanueva's turn to adjust and he might not be able to. But I got him for nothing and will drop him for one of my DL guys no issue. Tried selling him high when he was doing well and corners are just too stacked

Edited by loro1991

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I'm gonna hold, he's earned some room to figure it out. My wire is a tire fire of nothingness so dropping seems irrational. 

 

Pine for now unless I'm short starts. 

 

He's 0 for his last 25 :lol:

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He's dropped. Never really thought much of him anyway.  Just rode him while he was hot.

 

 

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Being dropped a lot of places, with good reason.  I assume the Padres are going to try to let him work through this, and I'd like to be able to as well on my bench.  He's in the adjustment phase - pitchers have changed how they're pitching him.  Can he adjust back, or is he doomed?

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If you own him; and say a guy like Didi and Gardner or two other guys going through a similar bad stretch it's enough to take you from 2nd to 7th. He's got to wake up. I think if you wait he's going to have a two homer game out of nowhere or something. Just hang on

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You know for a fact if Green had a better option for third, Villenanuva would be on the bench

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wow. he is so far in his OWN head right now he can't see the ball coming to the plate anymore

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0-3 3 K’s today. I think that’s 0-36. Starting to feel bad for the guy. 

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in case there was any doubt, drop the guy now if there is a guy on the WW you're looking hard at.  at least use his spot as a streamer.  He's garbage.  What a turn this thread has taken, and I admit I had false high hopes for him.  He fooled us

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You've been whining about how garbage he is throughout the entire thing.  If you have even watched his games when he has hit the ball, he's hit it hard and right at someone most times.  He was more of a .250-260 hitter at best anyways...

 

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4 hours ago, daynlokki said:

You've been whining about how garbage he is throughout the entire thing.  If you have even watched his games when he has hit the ball, he's hit it hard and right at someone most times.  He was more of a .250-260 hitter at best anyways...

 

I actually agree. He has died, but also been very unlucky, as I’ve personally seen him have not 1 but 2 homers robbed from him on ridiculous catches. I still think he can get back to .250-.260 and the Padres have 0 other options. At least he’s not Paul Goldscmidt, as his numbers still dwarf Goldy’s.

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I’d love to see the guy snap out of it, but 0-35 and 2 for his last 45 is going to land an unproven guy on the wire in the vast majority of leagues. The Padres DFA’d Chase Headley, but Cory Spangenburg was recalled in the same transaction, and was hitting .293/.328/.534 at AAA. Since the start of last season, he has a .279/.343/.448 slash against RHP. 

 

Villanueva this year has slashed .162/.271/.257 against RHP. That feels like a very natural platoon situation. 

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5 hours ago, MrPositive said:

I actually agree. He has died, but also been very unlucky, as I’ve personally seen him have not 1 but 2 homers robbed from him on ridiculous catches. I still think he can get back to .250-.260 and the Padres have 0 other options. At least he’s not Paul Goldscmidt, as his numbers still dwarf Goldy’s.

Surely you jest. Are you really comparing Villanueva to Goldschmidt. 

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4 hours ago, JFS179 said:

I’d love to see the guy snap out of it, but 0-35 and 2 for his last 45 is going to land an unproven guy on the wire in the vast majority of leagues. The Padres DFA’d Chase Headley, but Cory Spangenburg was recalled in the same transaction, and was hitting .293/.328/.534 at AAA. Since the start of last season, he has a .279/.343/.448 slash against RHP. 

 

Villanueva this year has slashed .162/.271/.257 against RHP. That feels like a very natural platoon situation. 

 

Yes. 

 

Earlier in this thread I commented that I really like Villanueva's swing.   But his approach is terrible and unless he improves it he's screwed.  The book is out on him. 

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5 hours ago, HBEACH said:

Surely you jest. Are you really comparing Villanueva to Goldschmidt. 

 

I figured it was pretty clear I was talking about this season lol. Villanueva has 9 homers and 20 rbi's and hitting 10 points higher. Goldschmidt has 4 homers, 12 rbi's and hitting .216. Regardless, this team is going nowheresville and Spangenberg has 0 power or speed, so they will try and get Villanueva right all year at least. But I"m in a 12 team NL only league, so I HAVE to hold. Shrug

Edited by MrPositive

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17 minutes ago, MrPositive said:

 

I figured it was pretty clear I was talking about this season lol. Villanueva has 9 homers and 20 rbi's and hitting 10 points higher. Goldschmidt has 4 homers, 12 rbi's and hitting .216. Regardless, this team is going nowheresville and Spangenberg has 0 power or speed, so they will try and get Villanueva right all year at least. But I"m in a 12 team NL only league, so I HAVE to hold. Shrug

 

My guess is that it's a platoon situation for a while. 

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1 hour ago, MrPositive said:

 

I figured it was pretty clear I was talking about this season lol. Villanueva has 9 homers and 20 rbi's and hitting 10 points higher. Goldschmidt has 4 homers, 12 rbi's and hitting .216. Regardless, this team is going nowheresville and Spangenberg has 0 power or speed, so they will try and get Villanueva right all year at least. But I"m in a 12 team NL only league, so I HAVE to hold. Shrug

It was clear. Seeing how Villanueva only had 32 career at bats prior to this year and Goldschmidt 3,000.  Just seemed like an odd comparison, but I get your point. I was thinking I woulda probably said at least he’s not Ryan McMahon (who I own).  I wouldn’t drop Villanueva if I had him, but I wouldn’t start him either. 

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On 4/16/2018 at 11:59 AM, handyandy86 said:

I know we're dealing with very small sample sizes here, but I'm failing to see much of anything to like here with Villanueva.  It's somewhat convenient to say he's been blocked by talented players in front of him and that's the only reason why he's nearly 27 and just breaking into MLB now, because he has always (and still does) have a lot of holes in his game.  MiLB advanced stats and splits are much less complete than what we have at the MLB level, but based on what I can find he's always been someone that struggles with RHP, and overall making consistent contact.

 

From 2009 through 2015 he spent 6 seasons slowly working his way up through the minors, from Rookie ball to AAA, and hit a combined .264 AVG / .328 OBP, which is OK, but nothing to write home about.  2015 was his only full year in AAA and he hit .259 AVG / .313 OBP, and then broke his fibula during ST in 2016 and missed the whole year.  The Cubs must not have thought too much of him as he was non-tendered and signed with SD and put up a better .296 AVG / .369 OBP season in AAA in 2017.

 

His MLB time has given a SSS to look at, but so far some pretty glaring holes include:

- His K% and BB% have been considerably worse in MLB, with a 32.5% K rate and 5% BB rate.  His MiLB K and BB rates weren't this bad, so there is some hope that he improves as he gets used to MLB pitching, but for the short term these numbers scream regression. 

- His PD and Whiffs have been quite bad as well.  He has a 38.2% O-Swing% so far in this young season, and he is Whiffing on basically everything - 50% whiff/swing on breaking balls, 41.67% on off-speed pitches, and 28% on fastballs.

- He's an extreme pull hitter with a tendency to hit a lot of fly balls, and a very high IFFB% that stayed true all through his MiLB career.  He's also been quite lucky in his short MLB career, with about a 43% HR/FB rate and .368 BABIP.  For reference, even a career pull-heavy, fly-ball, power hitting player like Adam Dunn had a 22% HR/FB rate, so Villanueva is certainly in for some regression there.

- He does almost all of his damage vs. LHP, and his LHP/RHP splits show a .429 AVG vs .244 AVG, and 0.2 HR/PA vs 0.06 HR/PA.  This past weekend vs. SF he did almost all of his damage off left handers Blach, D. Holland, and Osich.  

 

I know we are looking at very small sample sizes so far, and I'm not trying to say he's a bad hitter that will never improve.  But what I am saying is that so far he has shown a lot of holes, with his tendency to chase bad pitches, high K/BB, pull tendencies, platoon splits, and that he's in for some regression in HR/FB numbers.  He made a slow but steady rise through the minors, and if there is a positive takeaway from his MiLB stats it's that he always struggled in his first year at a new level, and then showed improvements the next year.  So he may end up being a decent MLB hitter, but I don't think that happens soon enough for him to valuable in redraft leagues this year.  For dynasty he's likely a guy to hold onto, since I think he has a shot at adjusting to MLB pitching and getting his K/BB rate down and improving on his hitting vs. RHP.

 

TL;DR

Villanueva is striking out a lot, not walking much, has huge platoon splits, chases and whiffs a lot, and is getting very lucky with his HR/FB rate.  Everything screams regression in the short term.  At best I'd start him in a daily league vs. LHP and hold in dynasty, but to me he's not an interesting option in most standard sized redraft leagues this year.

 

I generally don't come back to say "told ya so", but there seemed to be a lot of flack for my take on Villanueva being a flash in the pan.  This isn't to say that he can't rebound or have some hot streaks later in the year, but to all those that said "when's this regression coming?" (you know who you are), it's here now in a big way.  Dude has 1 hit in May!  K-rate is up 10% in May, HR/FB and BABIP have both torpedoed back to reality, and his O-Swing% is still just as high as ever.  He's dropping in the order, and has Spangenberg nipping at his heels.  

 

I guess the only positive to take from this is he's not likely as bad a hitter as he has been in May, but the net result of his hot April and horrible May of .226/.310 is likely pretty close to what you can expect from him ROS IMO.  And that's assuming he weathers this storm and stays in the lineup, and that MLB pitchers haven't already picked him apart.

 

Also curious, @taobball, do you still like Villanueva better than Davidson ROS?  Do you project a rebound for Villanueva, or is he at rock bottom?

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2 hours ago, handyandy86 said:

 

and has Spangenberg nipping at his heels.  

 

 

Spangenberg has a career high of 46 rbi's in a season of 5 years of service. I think the Padres REALLY want Villanueva to figure out his first slump. lol

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13 minutes ago, MrPositive said:

 

Spangenberg has a career high of 46 rbi's in a season of 5 years of service. I think the Padres REALLY want Villanueva to figure out his first slump. lol

 

Yeah I agree fully - I think Spangenberg potentially taking PT from Villanueva is more an indication of how lost Villanueva has been at the plate, as opposed to Spangenberg being good or having potential.  

 

Maybe this is the worst slump we see from Villanueva this year and he picks it back up again, but it looks to me more like regression to the mean than a blip on the radar.

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Hopefully he can break out of it. Problem is they only play 1 lefty this week. The kid is gonna have to start hitting right handed pitching or he will be nothing more than a platoon guy. 

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Being a defensive disaster is also likely to limit patience with his slumps. It's hard for the team to keep running a guy out there who hurts them on the field and at the plate. 

Edited by kittenmittons
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