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fakespike

Tyrell Williams 2018 Outlook

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21 minutes ago, JetsAwesome said:

i mean but he's being a little undervalued - his ownership is only like 14% which is real low for a #2 receiver( at least in name) on a competent offense.

 

He's Averaged 893 yards and 6 tds over past two years.  Looks like a solid WR3 to me in terms of production.

 

I think what people are looking at is that his production went from 1,059 yards and 7 TD in 2016 with basically every WR decimated with injury, to 728 yards and 4 TD in 2017, and even that was with Mike Williams hurt most of the year.  Just stating he has a 900 yard per season average doesn't really do justice to explain the significant differences in circumstances between the two years.  

 

Now you've got Mike Williams presumably healthy and looking good in preseason.  Gates is back which will at least vulture some RZ targets away from the rest.  Benjamin is still there and will get some deep balls thrown to him.  And of course Allen will dominate target share again.  There are so many mouths to feed, it would seem unlikely he tops the 700 yards and 4 TD's he had last year.  Not saying he can't, but the path to success is far from clear.  His ceiling is very limited by the sheer number of mouths to feed, and you're basically hoping on injuries or a complete flop by a couple others to guarantee targets for Tyrell.

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3 minutes ago, handyandy86 said:

 

I think what people are looking at is that his production went from 1,059 yards and 7 TD in 2016 with basically every WR decimated with injury, to 728 yards and 4 TD in 2017, and even that was with Mike Williams hurt most of the year.  Just stating he has a 900 yard per season average doesn't really do justice to explain the significant differences in circumstances between the two years.  

 

Now you've got Mike Williams presumably healthy and looking good in preseason.  Gates is back which will at least vulture some RZ targets away from the rest.  Benjamin is still there and will get some deep balls thrown to him.  And of course Allen will dominate target share again.  There are so many mouths to feed, it would seem unlikely he tops the 700 yards and 4 TD's he had last year.  Not saying he can't, but the path to success is far from clear.  His ceiling is very limited by the sheer number of mouths to feed, and you're basically hoping on injuries or a complete flop by a couple others to guarantee targets for Tyrell.

 

I read the Courtland Sutton thread.  I have seen the tape and I liked it.  Then I read your comments above.  Then I looked at how I have Fitz, A-Rob, Goodwin, Funchess, and Godwin already on my roster....and I said goodbye to Tyrell.  I am probably saying goodbye to this thread forever too.  Bye Tyrell bros.

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Glad he’s flying under the radar. One can only hope opposing teams are doing the same. Focus on Keenan and the redshirt freshman.

 

High powered offense with a 60 year old Gates at TE, lots of opportunities.

 

This is one of those players that when the season is done, everyone is gong to reflect and say “Wtf, the writing was on the wall. I can’t f—— believe I didn’t take him!”

 

I smell a breakout. 

Edited by Sonny_D
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3 minutes ago, Sonny_D said:

Glad he’s flying under the radar. One can only hope opposing teams are doing the same. Focus on Keenan and the redshirt freshman.

 

High powered offense with a 60 year old Gates at TE, lots of opportunities.

 

I smell a breakout. 

Exactly people here are ignoring he's a starting WR playing along an elite injury prone WR with a rookie who has yet to actually produce in the NFL.  It's not like we're saying pay a high price for him.  As bench fliers go - he's one of the better ones.

Edited by JetsAwesome

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6 minutes ago, Sonny_D said:

Glad he’s flying under the radar. One can only hope opposing teams are doing the same. Focus on Keenan and the redshirt freshman.

 

High powered offense with a 60 year old Gates at TE, lots of opportunities.

 

This is one of those players that when the season is done, everyone is gong to reflect and say “Wtf, the writing was on the wall. I can’t f—— believe I didn’t take him!”

 

I smell a breakout. 

 

That's all fine to say, but where is the target increase coming from?  He was a "starting" WR last year too, played 80% of snaps, and still only got 69 targets.  You're losing 62 targets from Henry being injured, but everyone else is returning from last season.  Mike Williams only had 23 targets due to missing time with injury, and if he's healthy you have to project he gets at least 60 targets, but likely more.  Gates might be geriatric, but Rivers has targeted his TE's 100+ times a season since forever ago, and it's unlikely they just write all of that out of the playbook now.  You also have an emerging Ekeler who will demand some targets and people are projecting bigger things for.

 

In the year Tyrell was relevant he led the team with 119 targets.  If you figure he needs to increase from 69 targets to 119 to be relevant again, or even more targets if you're expecting a "breakout", then you're hoping he will somehow gain 50 targets in an offense that only lost 62 targets from a year ago, and who has other players you know will also demand more targets.  Someone has to lose in this scenario.

 

I'm all for predicting breakouts and buying low, but the math just doesn't add up.  Targets have to come from somewhere.  Sure, he's a late round flier and costs little, but there are other late round WR's that have a lot clearer path to targets I'd rather focus on.

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Is Tyrell back on the fantasy radar now if Keenan Allen has to miss time because of his knee issue?

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I think that Williams is worth a speculative add if he is on waivers in your league because of Allen's knee issue.  Mike Williams will likely be the #1 wr if Allen misses time but the Chargers are a high-powered offense and Tyrell would be the #2 wr.

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On 9/26/2018 at 7:34 PM, sjm76 said:

Is Tyrell back on the fantasy radar now if Keenan Allen has to miss time because of his knee issue?

What knee issue?

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Anybody have his snap counts or where I can get this info? This cat can ball man

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5 minutes ago, dashoe said:

Sweet looks like he has the WR2 role or they are running enough 3 receiver sets to sustain his current production. He should be owned and started ( next week ) in all leagues

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6 minutes ago, Dr. Whom said:

Sweet looks like he has the WR2 role or they are running enough 3 receiver sets to sustain his current production. He should be owned and started ( next week ) in all leagues

 

I would be very careful with a guy like Tyrell Williams. Rivers spreads the ball around and you can bet that positive regression will happen with Allen in this offense. TD's are unpredictable and he doesnt garner enough targets to be that consistent receiver that can be started weekly. He's averaging just 4 targets a game. Travis Benjamin will be up to speed coming out of the bye which will leave Gordon, Eck, Allen, M. Williams, T. Williams. Benjamin and Gates all vying for targets.

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5 minutes ago, nonstopfan said:

 

I would be very careful with a guy like Tyrell Williams. Rivers spreads the ball around and you can bet that positive regression will happen with Allen in this offense. TD's are unpredictable and he doesnt garner enough targets to be that consistent receiver that can be started weekly. He's averaging just 4 targets a game. Travis Benjamin will be up to speed coming out of the bye which will leave Gordon, Eck, Allen, M. Williams, T. Williams. Benjamin and Gates all vying for targets.

Fair enough...I just know Rivers likes to go deep and Tyrell likes to go deep so...4th year breakout!

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What nonstopfan said concerns me. I don’t like 4 targets a game which pretty much means he has to at least catch one long one for a td.

 

he has the most points of all WRs on my waivers so I’m  getting concerned my Golladay has been little for three straight weeks with today be horrible.  Should I take my chances inserting TW over KG, or is that too risky. 

 

What can can you tell me about TW to make me feel better about gett8ng him? 

 

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11 minutes ago, TennisMenace said:

What nonstopfan said concerns me. I don’t like 4 targets a game which pretty much means he has to at least catch one long one for a td.

 

he has the most points of all WRs on my waivers so I’m  getting concerned my Golladay has been little for three straight weeks with today be horrible.  Should I take my chances inserting TW over KG, or is that too risky. 

 

What can can you tell me about TW to make me feel better about gett8ng him? 

 

Are you thinking about dropping Golladay for Williams? I would never do that. Williams is at best the #3 option and if he is the #3 then he's tied with at least two other guys for that #3 role. 

 

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1 minute ago, munde53 said:

Are you thinking about dropping Golladay for Williams? I would never do that. Williams is at best the #3 option and if he is the #3 then he's tied with at least two other guys for that #3 role. 

 

 

No, dropping a RB

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4 minutes ago, TennisMenace said:

 

No, dropping a RB

I guess you could drop Thompson but I still wouldn't expect much from Williams from week to week. He's about as boom or bust as you can get. 

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8 minutes ago, munde53 said:

I guess you could drop Thompson but I still wouldn't expect much from Williams from week to week. He's about as boom or bust as you can get. 

 

You know, what you said is why I’m intrigued about TW.  (BOOM or bust)

 

i may be willing to take my chances for the BOOM knowing I might get the bust. 

 

 

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Well, looks like Tyrell doesn’t generate much interest I guess because he only averages 4 targets per game and 3 catches per game. I guess most guys don’t like boom or bust players like him. As i recall, wasn’t MARTAVIS BRYANT like that when he first came up?  He would bust a long td on a fairly regular basis and of course Brown was still eating opposite him. Many people loved Martavis. Why no love for Tyrell?  It appears Rivers likes him. He seems to be WR2 on that team, although like New Orleans, Gordon gets plenty of drop offs too. 

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Yeah, surprised he’s not getting more love on here?  Rivers seems to like to throw the deep ball at least a couple times per game.  Plus should anything happen to Keenan I would think he’s immediately in the WR2 conversation?

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