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taobball

Caleb Smith 2018 Outlook

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Great post per usual @taobball

 

I already own him in a deep points league after his first start. I watched the first inning of his second game and wanted to puke. He settled down OK after that. Maybe it was just nerves but he couldn't find the zone that inning.

 

Thankfully in a ballpark like Miami in front of no fans, he might not have a lot of pressure on him often.

 

 

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Wasn't dominant, but I liked what I saw 7:1 K/bb. Less than a base runner per inning.  Threw strikes when he needed to. Didn't watch the first inning but watched a few others, left one hanging for Asdrubal but overall I think I liked what I saw. Certainly on the deep league stream radar, preferably at home.

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Yeah he's an interesting guy imo. Added him going into year in my deep 20 team dynasty. He's like 26 but has some solid stuff and stats to back it up.

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Yeh Brock said it first, but this wasn't the "10 K outing that could make him an hot commodity" like I mentioned in the open, but 7K : 1BB is very encouraging. 12 Whiffs on 84 Pitches. Change-Up didn't seem to be there and didn't get a whiff but those 12 whiffs will keep his overall number number elite for the third straight game. 

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I want to rephrase this another way-- 

 

I also want to be clear... that we're talking about IF and not WHEN-- 

 

But here's the thing about Caleb Smith. There's certain skills that are going to cost you just a lot more or gain value a lot quicker. A pitch to contact pitcher who's breaking out now won't be likely seen as a viable fantasy asset nearly as quickly as a strikeout pitcher. And when it comes to Smith, the ERA and BB/9 will keep enough owners from shying away. 

 

But, if Caleb Smith has a scoreless outing next, or a couple really good starts next, then we'll be talking about a pitcher who, after 4-5 Starts, is under a 4.00 ERA (only needs to pitch 2.2 IP clean to get to a sub-4.00), likely between 10-12 K/9, at a relatively young age, in the NL, with elite Peripheries in terms of Swing-and-miss.

 

So what I'm essentially saying is still the same thing. Maybe this is just coming off as a repetition. But in essence:

Don't buy Caleb Smith because I believe there's a really good chance he breaks out. Buy Caleb Smith because the upside he's flashing is substantially more than what most pitchers do, and the cost for a Caleb Smith-skill-set breakout that we're seeing is going to be substantial. The cost in a guy like Caleb Smith will skyrocket if he has that big dominant start.

 

Again, that's a big if, but if he has a 6 Inning Scoreless, 6 k outing next week he'll have a 3.26 ERA, 11.64 K/9, and a Whiff% that would rival the league leaders on any given year through 4 starts, and that's just simply not a guy who's likely to be on the Wire in any leagues, and right now he's on the wire in every league, or at least 98.2% of leagues via ESPN. So, get him now when he's absolutely free, drop him if he sucks, and if he does have that outing you have at the least a player with spiking value. I play in a deep Fantrax league where he was used as a streamer and then dropped today and I literally let out a "Hah" when I saw him dropped because I couldn't believe anyone was dropping him after a 7K 1BB performance, but people still see Caleb Smith as a streamer...to me he's the opposite of a streamer. If I could even avoid using him I probably would in numerous scenarios. But I want him on my roster in as many leagues as possible as a flier that could mature in value substantially and quickly. 

 

And one last note: the Change-Up wasn't there today, and has been his least effective overall pitch at least in terms of whiffs it seems in his first three outings. His Slider has actually been arguably the most dominant. 12 Whiffs / 61 Pitches coming into today and had 6 Whiffs on 29 pitches via Brooks today adding up to 18 / 90 or a really solid 20.0% SwStr% on that Pitch. What's interesting to me is that, when doing research more recently, most scouting reports I saw discussed a consistent/strong Change-Up and a lack of a consistent breaking ball. So I wouldn't say the fact that we've seen virtually the opposite in three starts is a good thing, but I do think it gives you a bit of optimism if only to the idea that he can throw a change-up. 

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He clearly must be able to manipulate spin on his offerings...

My main worries are his FB velo is rather ordinary at around 92-94 and the CH and SL are right around the same speed.

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23 minutes ago, brockpapersizer said:

OUtside of one longball, he is DOMINATING today

 

Ten strikeouts!

What's your thoughts on him? Legit or need to see more ?

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13 minutes ago, mortl said:

What's your thoughts on him? Legit or need to see more ?

 

Is he going to throw 10ks a game? No, but he looks l like a pitcher to ride, especially if Wins arent important in your league. I'd read @taobball's post above.

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No reason to believe in consistency. No reason to believe he can't be this though if he's attacking hitters and pitching from ahead. Needs to work on the depth of his repertoire too but overall he's got the swing and miss stuff to be a Tyson Ross type (at prime, who was a top 30 SP) at worse if he can just add a bit more consistency. 

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Am I wrong to get sorta get a Arrieta 2014 read from this? Less prospect hype obviously but someone who isn't really on anyone's radar who flashes moments of brilliance, has some underlying stats that look good but begins the season in an inconsistent fashion and has a fair bit of untapped upside.

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Posted (edited)

He pitched poorly @NYY (his old team) and perhaps the worst matchup possible.  Outside of that he had a rough 1st inning in his first road start, but pretty solid to great in every other instance. 

Edited by brockpapersizer

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He was ahead all day today, and it was not just grooving the first pitch either. He was painting the corners at 93/94 and really attacking. He can miss bats clearly, if he can command like he showed today then he is gonna pretty damn good imo.

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Pretty much the reason we invested to begin with. Everyone’s gonna be spending mad FAAB to get him now, when I got him several days ago for $0 bid.

 

h/t @taobball. This is a great lotto ticket.

 

6 IP 10 K. No walks. Only two ER were from a hit and following HR. Watched the game and he looked pretty sharp. The zero walks is huge.

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The only players with 10ks and 0 walks in a game this year are Kershaw, Gerrit Cole, Scherzer, Thor, and Caleb Smith.

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On 4/11/2018 at 4:55 AM, taobball said:

So, get him now when he's absolutely free, drop him if he sucks, and if he does have that outing you have at the least a player with spiking value. I play in a deep Fantrax league where he was used as a streamer and then dropped today and I literally let out a "Hah" when I saw him dropped because I couldn't believe anyone was dropping him after a 7K 1BB performance, but people still see Caleb Smith as a streamer...to me he's the opposite of a streamer. If I could even avoid using him I probably would in numerous scenarios. But I want him on my roster in as many leagues as possible as a flier that could mature in value substantially and quickly. 

 

15 minutes ago, RAZRr1275 said:

Think it might be time to pick him up

 

4 minutes ago, brockpapersizer said:

Picked him up in 3 leagues last week, and had him in a very deep one previously.

 

I see you @taobball

 

 

Yeah... I think it's time to pick up. 

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Dr K strikes again...seriously, it is not smoke and mirrors...his stuff is good

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The ultimate hope is he becomes the next Godley/degrom guy to go from unheralded prospect to ace/sp2. These were two incredibly impressive games. 18 ks and one walk? He has a tough matchup next time out in Cincinnati. 

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