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Caleb Smith 2018 Outlook

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5 minutes ago, Marty Funkhouser said:

Hold. I don’t throw 11k/9 starters into the recycling bin. He’s a definite work in progress and having the control issues while already being 26 gives me a bit of pause but I’ve seen enough this year to give him some time.

Less than 8 k/9 the last 15 days. Been a while since he had a big k game almost like the league has caught up to him

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8 hours ago, beauso79 said:

It was a risky start nonetheless.  On the road in a launching pad even though AZ sucks right now.  I still started him sadly 

You know AZ is a pitcher friendly park now...cos of the humidor thing?

 

Still holding but that was disappointing as the D-Backs suck right now without Pollock.

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9 hours ago, Dr. Whom said:

Less than 8 k/9 the last 15 days. Been a while since he had a big k game almost like the league has caught up to him

 

That isn't accurate. Over his last 15 days, he has 17 Ks in 17.2 IP...that's 8.7 k/9. And despite last night's start, he still has a 3.57 ERA and 0.97 WHIP over those 15 days, along with a couple of wins. Not bad for a FA pickup. 

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My biggest issue; postgame. Dude has the nerve to say, “I thought tonight was the best stuff I had all season.”

Bruh, back to back walks to the 8 hitter and then Greinke. A couple meatballs knocked over the fence. Doesn’t sound like a competitor. I want someone who would be ticked after pitching like horse s***. 

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10 hours ago, PhilaFanBoy said:

He's not an ace. I'm perfectly content with a 3.50-3.75 ERA. He'll have these starts every now and then.

 

Exactly. Whoever expected him to go out there and throw up Kluber stats every game was dreaming. He has 11 k/9 and a 4 BB/9 rates, its not going to be smooth sailing every trip out there. But still....top-40-50 pitcher with solid to great upside.

 

 

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1 hour ago, Flyman75 said:

 

That isn't accurate. Over his last 15 days, he has 17 Ks in 17.2 IP...that's 8.7 k/9. And despite last night's start, he still has a 3.57 ERA and 0.97 WHIP over those 15 days, along with a couple of wins. Not bad for a FA pickup. 

 

last 15 days is still no way to evaluate a pitcher. His k rate has been very consistent all year outside of the second to last start against the Padres. In which, as someone else pointed out back in this thread, that he was pitching to contact and not for the Ks and ended up going 7IP, allowing 4 hits and 1 run...if thats what we get when he doesnt strike out 27 in a game, i think we will still be pretty damn happy.

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6 minutes ago, arthurpete said:

 

Exactly. Whoever expected him to go out there and throw up Kluber stats every game was dreaming. He has 11 k/9 and a 4 BB/9 rates, its not going to be smooth sailing every trip out there. But still....top-40-50 pitcher with solid to great upside.

 

 

I think the uproar isnt that people think he is an ace, it's that he shouldnt have had this kind of trouble (zero trouble really) against this lineup.  Goldy aside, Peralta is the top hitter on the team with a .260 ish avg.  Everyone else is in the .220 range or below.  He walked the backup catcher and the pitcher right in a row.  That is unacceptable no matter who you are. 

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Posted (edited)
22 minutes ago, KJ12345 said:

I think the uproar isnt that people think he is an ace, it's that he shouldnt have had this kind of trouble (zero trouble really) against this lineup.  Goldy aside, Peralta is the top hitter on the team with a .260 ish avg.  Everyone else is in the .220 range or below.  He walked the backup catcher and the pitcher right in a row.  That is unacceptable no matter who you are. 

 

These guys are still professional ball players, struggling or not.  AZ has put up 36 runs in the past 5 games, not saying they are hot by any means but they arent some double AA club either.

 

A quick look at the box score and it looks like he got touched up by Goldy and Peralta...

Edited by arthurpete
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2 hours ago, arthurpete said:

 

last 15 days is still no way to evaluate a pitcher. His k rate has been very consistent all year outside of the second to last start against the Padres. In which, as someone else pointed out back in this thread, that he was pitching to contact and not for the Ks and ended up going 7IP, allowing 4 hits and 1 run...if thats what we get when he doesnt strike out 27 in a game, i think we will still be pretty damn happy.

 

I don't disagree, and I wasn't evaluating him. DW seemed to be pointing to him being flawed over the last 15 days. I was simply pointing out he had been solid over that time. 👍

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Next up SD at home, look for a >10 k rebound

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3 hours ago, Backdoor Slider said:

My biggest issue; postgame. Dude has the nerve to say, “I thought tonight was the best stuff I had all season.”

Bruh, back to back walks to the 8 hitter and then Greinke. A couple meatballs knocked over the fence. Doesn’t sound like a competitor. I want someone who would be ticked after pitching like horse s***. 

Was thinking this too when I saw his post game comments. Stuff like this makes you just shake your head in disbelief. Theres nothing wrong with admitting you pitched like *hit. It happens. Dude walked Jeff Mathis and then Greinke for goodness sake. To turn that around and say it was your best pitching performance all year is about as dopey as you can get. Oh well. Gets the Padres next time out so its about as good of a bounce back spot as you can ask for so theres that at least. 

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3 hours ago, Backdoor Slider said:

My biggest issue; postgame. Dude has the nerve to say, “I thought tonight was the best stuff I had all season.”

Bruh, back to back walks to the 8 hitter and then Greinke. A couple meatballs knocked over the fence. Doesn’t sound like a competitor. I want someone who would be ticked after pitching like horse s***. 

 

Yeah that's a weird thing to say, but I wonder if he just got some wires crossed for the day or something. He certianly didn't execute good pitches on the HRs he gave up. 

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Posted (edited)

I started him this week.  SD is one of the worst teams in the league at striking out, and Smith seems to be a K per inning pitcher.   I have him in over Tallion and Weaver.  Can't start everyone so I went with the match up. 

 

I'm not sure why people are upset, down on, or trashing this kid.  He was drafted in like 0% of normal leagues.  He's a FA, waiver wire flyer who's put up pretty decent numbers to date.  He should be no more than one of your match up SPs, and if you're relying on Smith to be a rotation staple on your team then you either drafted poorly, or are suffering from injuries/disappointment on your staff.  Anything this kid gives us is house money.  A K per 9, and 1.19 WHIP are very good.  A 4.03 ERA is less than ideal, but if it comes with a low whip and K's it's a passable number. Oh, and the 4 wins aren't bad either. 

Edited by dicka24
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Trying to think of a comp? How about Robbie Ray? LHP, big whiffs, can get wild. A work in progress but for those Ray owners who held, they've been rewarded. Like to see if Caleb can't follow in Ray's footsteps.

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Nothing about Smith's start yesterday. He wasn't very efficient, but he did pitch 5.1 scoreless innings and get his 5th win. He's still holding up as a nice FA find to bolster the back end of our pitching staffs. 

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38 minutes ago, Chickie said:

Trying to think of a comp? How about Robbie Ray? LHP, big whiffs, can get wild. A work in progress but for those Ray owners who held, they've been rewarded. Like to see if Caleb can't follow in Ray's footsteps.


Robbie Ray's been thrown out a few times by a few people, myself included. It makes a lot of sense. I think Smith has more control but less Swing-and-Miss. And I like that Caleb throws a change.

 

22 minutes ago, Flyman75 said:

Nothing about Smith's start yesterday. He wasn't very efficient, but he did pitch 5.1 scoreless innings and get his 5th win. He's still holding up as a nice FA find to bolster the back end of our pitching staffs. 

 

Yeah can't complain about 1.125 WHIP, 0.00 ERA, and 5 Ks in 5.1 IP with a W. It's incredibly fortunate he's been able to nab 5 wins already this season with this team. Hopefully that can continue. 

 

He's missing less bats now than he was at the beginning of the season. But, to me the important thing is that, despite throwing more balls in the strike zone, and despite hitters making more contact, his secondary offerings still aren't getting hit hard.

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9 minutes ago, taobball said:

Yeah can't complain about 1.125 WHIP, 0.00 ERA, and 5 Ks in 5.1 IP with a W. It's incredibly fortunate he's been able to nab 5 wins already this season with this team. Hopefully that can continue. 

 

He's missing less bats now than he was at the beginning of the season. But, to me the important thing is that, despite throwing more balls in the strike zone, and despite hitters making more contact, his secondary offerings still aren't getting hit hard.

 

Yeah, the wins are solid for that team. If he can finish with 10-12, I consider that a successful win total for any Miami SP. 

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1 minute ago, Flyman75 said:

 

Yeah, the wins are solid for that team. If he can finish with 10-12, I consider that a successful win total for any Miami SP. 

 

I would agree, and he's well over pace for that, so long as he plays the full season. He needs to essentially do what he's done in twice as many starts to hit 10. 

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51 minutes ago, Flyman75 said:

 

Yeah, the wins are solid for that team. If he can finish with 10-12, I consider that a successful win total for any Miami SP. 

Yeah thats like winning 30 games for another team

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On 6/3/2018 at 8:05 AM, KJ12345 said:

I think the uproar isnt that people think he is an ace, it's that he shouldnt have had this kind of trouble (zero trouble really) against this lineup.  Goldy aside, Peralta is the top hitter on the team with a .260 ish avg.  Everyone else is in the .220 range or below.  He walked the backup catcher and the pitcher right in a row.  That is unacceptable no matter who you are. 

Ehhh

They're all major league hitters and Caleb Smith hadn't even proven he was capable of getting big leaguers out until this year, precisely because his control has always been bad. Those kinds of walks are the exact reason he was languishing in the minors for so long and had no fantasy relevance until this year.

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3 minutes ago, cs3 said:

Ehhh

They're all major league hitters and Caleb Smith hadn't even proven he was capable of getting big leaguers out until this year, precisely because his control has always been bad. Those kinds of walks are the exact reason he was languishing in the minors for so long and had no fantasy relevance until this year.

 

I don't know if you've followed Caleb Smith and perhaps know better than me, but I don't know if this is the case. I've looked over his minor league numbers and it certainly doesn't seem to be the case. I don't know what held Caleb Smith back the first few years of his career. I do know that whatever he was doing in hte minors, he attracted the attention of multiple clubs, notably the Cubs who temporarily added him as a Rule 5 before, and obviously whoever came over from the Yankees who wanted Smith so badly. 

 

I don't exactly know if this is helpful in the thread of this particular conversation, but I actually don't know necessarily what exactly was wrong or changed with Caleb. 

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Posted (edited)

He had walk rate over 9% basically every year of his pro career except for the 98 innings at AAA in 2017, and that was his second trip through AAA. His K/BB ratio was always fairly underwhelming even with a solid K rate. Maybe he had other problems to work out, but his control has always been rather poor and he was never much of prospect unless I missed something. I mean he wasn't even drafted until the 14th rd and he was a college arm, so it wasn't like he was some highschool kid who scared teams off with huge bonus demands and the threat of going to school instead of signing.

 

Maybe someone here knows... was he injured in 2016? He only made 7 starts that season and his other 20 appearances were out of the bullpen. Only about 60 innings total. I haven't been able to find anything definitive on that, but I kind of assumed that NYY had given up on him as a starter and tried to convert him to relief, then switched back the following year. 

But I have no idea if that's actually the case.

Edited by cs3

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Posted (edited)

Home against SF on Wednesday. Kind of unsure about this start. SF has a few good veteran RH bats.

 

Is this a regression game for him or another solid outing.

Edited by Members_Only_76

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Posted (edited)
43 minutes ago, Members_Only_76 said:

Home against SF on Wednesday. Kind of unsure about this start. SF has a few good veteran RH bats.

 

Is this a regression game for him or another solid outing.

SF at home vLHP is 7th on the season in wOBA (.337) and 5th in wRC+ (120). if you're starting caleb for this outing... be prepared for not great results.

edit: full disclosure, i started him, but i'm already questioning my decision.

Edited by osb_tensor

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