taobball

Caleb Smith 2018 Outlook

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3 minutes ago, osb_tensor said:

SF at home vLHP is 7th on the season in wOBA (.337) and 5th in wRC+ (120). if you're starting caleb for this outing... be prepared for not great results.

edit: full disclosure, i started him, but i'm already questioning my decision.

 

Smith is at home, not SF. 

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5 minutes ago, Flyman75 said:

 

Smith is at home, not SF. 

oh that's a lot better. maybe his next start is in SF? I think he's scheduled to face them b2b, right?

anyways.. SF, away, vLHP: 21st in both categories wOBA (.298) and wRC+ (86).

 

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6 minutes ago, Flyman75 said:

 

Smith is at home, not SF. 

Old Candlestick was much more intimidating for hitters IMO.  Swirling winds made for cold wind chills and extremely adventurous high fly balls.  

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Just now, osb_tensor said:

oh that's a lot better. maybe his next start is in SF? I think he's scheduled to face them b2b, right?

anyways.. SF, away, vLHP: 21st in both categories wOBA (.298) and wRC+ (86).

 

 

I think he'll get to miss SF on the road altogether. His next start should be @Baltimore on Saturday, and if I'm not mistaken, his next start after that will come after the @SF series. However, that puts him pitching at Coors...so...yeah...probably going to sit him for that one. LOL. 

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35 minutes ago, Flyman75 said:

 

I think he'll get to miss SF on the road altogether. His next start should be @Baltimore on Saturday, and if I'm not mistaken, his next start after that will come after the @SF series. However, that puts him pitching at Coors...so...yeah...probably going to sit him for that one. LOL. 

CBS showing his next three starts as vs SF (wed this week), @ SF, @ Col.  is that not correct?

 

Assuming a home start, vs SF, are people starting him?  Pretty good matchup, no?

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2 minutes ago, herschel said:

 

CBS showing his next three starts as vs SF (wed this week), @ SF, @ Col.  is that not correct?

 

Assuming a home start, vs SF, are people starting him?  Pretty good matchup, no?

 

You are correct. For some reason, when I looked at the schedule, I had him starting today. Derp! Lol. 

 

In weekly leagues, I think he's a safe sit next week. 

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2 minutes ago, Flyman75 said:

 

You are correct. For some reason, when I looked at the schedule, I had him starting today. Derp! Lol. 

 

In weekly leagues, I think he's a safe sit next week. 

yeah, will definitely be avoiding at coors.  but starting him this week....

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Definitely starting this week against SF, and I will probably chance it next week at SF (just with lower expectations). But Coors is a definite sit. 

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Four quality starts out of thirteen ... he is tied with guys like Mike Friers, Ian Kennedy, Danny Duffy, David Hess 

 

not that good 

 

But to me he is only stream material ... 

 

i still cant figure why so many like him 

 

 

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12 minutes ago, shakestreet said:

Four quality starts out of thirteen ... he is tied with guys like Mike Friers, Ian Kennedy, Danny Duffy, David Hess 

 

not that good 

 

But to me he is only stream material ... 

 

i still cant figure why so many like him 

 

 

Wut

 

You only rank guys by QS? That’s uh...not a great way to look at value. 

 

Caleb- 3.70 ERA, 10.83 K/9

Fiers- 4.01 ERA, 6.68 K/9

Kennedy- 5.76 ERA, 8.50 K/9

 

But...quality starts?

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Posted (edited)
18 minutes ago, shakestreet said:

 

i still cant figure why so many like him 

 

 

 

The base stats he’s put up is the main reason. Like general 5x5 value has been very strong since his first few starts. 

Edited by taobball
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7 minutes ago, taobball said:

 

The base stats he’s put up is the main reason. Like general 5x5 value has been very strong since his first few starts. 

 

26 minutes ago, shakestreet said:

Four quality starts out of thirteen ... he is tied with guys like Mike Friers, Ian Kennedy, Danny Duffy, David Hess 

 

not that good 

 

But to me he is only stream material ... 

 

i still cant figure why so many like him 

 

 

he also pitches in a home stadium that ranks 27th out of 30 for hitters (meaning very favorable for pitchers).

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1 hour ago, shakestreet said:

Mike Friers, Ian Kennedy, Danny Duffy, David Hess

 

1 hour ago, shakestreet said:

i still cant figure why 

Really can't figure out how Caleb Smith differs from that collection of waiver clowns?

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Posted (edited)

 

Last 30 days he's the #22 SP, in a quality start league

 

He's #40 on the year in standard scoring for the year. 

 

Pretty good for a pick up, incredibly good in deep leagues.

Edited by brockpapersizer
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3 hours ago, Backdoor Slider said:

Wut

 

You only rank guys by QS? That’s uh...not a great way to look at value. 

 

Caleb- 3.70 ERA, 10.83 K/9

Fiers- 4.01 ERA, 6.68 K/9

Kennedy- 5.76 ERA, 8.50 K/9

 

But...quality starts?

Oh no ... I didn’t say my only ranking is QS. We also use Ks W ERA WHIP  

i was just pointing out a fact . 

 

Caleb is a K machine has a decent WHIP 

 

Gotcha 

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1 hour ago, brockpapersizer said:

 

Last 30 days he's the #22 SP, in a quality start league

 

He's #40 on the year in standard scoring for the year. 

 

Pretty good for a pick up, incredibly good in deep leagues.

Huh ... his QS score IS .89 tied at 57 with a lot of pitchers 

Caleb has had 2 QS in last 30 days 

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5 minutes ago, shakestreet said:

Huh ... his QS score IS .89 tied at 57 with a lot of pitchers 

Caleb has had 2 QS in last 30 days 

 

Yes I messed up. I agree, he might have some abbreviated starts, not ideal in QS leagues. For the year he's 57 in QS leagues though.  72 in past 30. Personally those numbers are more impressive when you realize he's made a change in approach after the first few starts, those rankings are even better since then.

 

If you play in a deep enough league, there's a lot to like here. Maybe in 12 team shallow benches, he's not super exciting because someone hot is usually available. But I think there's skill here to see value over the course of the season and to build on.

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4 hours ago, shakestreet said:

Four quality starts out of thirteen ... he is tied with guys like Mike Friers, Ian Kennedy, Danny Duffy, David Hess 

 

not that good 

 

But to me he is only stream material ... 

 

i still cant figure why so many like him 

 

 

 

I like him because he's a waiver wire add who has a 3.70 ERA, 1.19 WHIP, 79 K, and has managed 5 wins for the stinking Marlins. And those are the cats my 5x5 roto league uses. I like him because his FIP and SIERA support his ERA and suggest that he is who he's showing himself to be. I like him because he's bolstering the back end of my staff. I don't think he's the second coming or anything, and he doesn't anchor my staff...but I like him. 

 

And frankly, I don't care about QS. It's not a category for me, and it's not how I'm going to judge him. I don't even like the QS parameters. If I see my SP has gotten a QS by going 6 innings and giving up 3 ER for a 4.50 ERA that night...meh. 

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QS is such a crappy stat that it's honestly worse than wins. Quailty Start is the type of stat that makes you drop Caleb Smith for Ivan Nova.

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1 hour ago, elrey said:

QS is such a crappy stat that it's honestly worse than wins. Quailty Start is the type of stat that makes you drop Caleb Smith for Ivan Nova.

Nothing is worse than wins.

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He has good numbers even @COL (1-0 0 ETA 7 IP) so throw him out there next week for 2.

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20 minutes ago, STLSU said:

He has good numbers even @COL (1-0 0 ETA 7 IP) so throw him out there next week for 2.

Let’s get through this week first. But as for next week @COL looking at extremely small sample, 

200w.gif

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QS is a fairly dumb category or statistic.   A pitcher can go 5 2/3 shutout innings with 12 Ks and not qualify for a QS, while someone who gives up 12 hits over 6 innings of 3 run ball (which equals a crappy 4.50 ERA) is seem as "quality".    Don't get me wrong, I know what they're trying to do with the QS, but it's one of those stats that requires massive amounts of salt imo.

 

Smith is an excellent example of this.  His overall numbers are really good.  10+ K's per 9, a 3.70 ERA and 1.19 whip with 5 wins.  If those stats were next to the name Arrieta or Quintana people would be happy with their draft day picks, or looking to move them for a quality return.   Yet if you look at his QS percentage/ratio you'd think you owned Lucas Giolitto or something.

Edited by dicka24

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On 6/11/2018 at 11:00 PM, 2ndCitySox said:

Nothing is worse than wins.

 

Disagree. QS is worse. I hate it. 

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7 minutes ago, dicka24 said:

QS is a fairly dumb category or statistic.   A pitcher can go 5 2/3 shutout innings with 12 Ks and not qualify for a QS, while someone who gives up 12 hits over 6 innings of 3 run ball (which equals a crappy 4.50 ERA) is seem as "quality".    Don't get me wrong, I know what they're trying to do with the QS, but it's one of those stats that requires massive amounts of salt imo.

 

Smith is an excellent example of this.  His overall numbers are really good.  10+ K's per 9, a 3.70 ERA and 1.19 whip with 5 wins.  If those stats were next to the name Arrieta or Quintana people would be happy with their draft day picks, or looking to move them for a quality return.   Yet if you look at his QS percentage/ratio you'd think you owned Lucas Giolitto or something.

 

While the definition of a QS could be flawed, some could view Ws as a crappy cat for a pitcher as well.  While the pitcher could help or hurt his own cause, you are completely reliant on the offense getting you runs.  You could say that Sale going 8 IP, 6 H, 1 BB, 1 ER, 10 Ks and getting the loss last start is pretty lame while Ryan Yarbrough goes 6 IP with 4 ER and gets a win.

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