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Caleb Smith 2018 Outlook

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Eh, you guys must have nice staffs.  This start doesn’t move meter much for me.  He didn’t throw strikes.  He didn’t get hit.  He gave up big hit to Turner, that’s about it.  When you roster young arms you’ll have bouts with command issues.  If you can’t stomach some 4-5 walk games where he gets pulled at <4 then go look for some vets to fill staff out with.  If I rage dropped every arm that wasn’t precise I wouldn’t have a starter left on my team.  

Edited by Cmilne23
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I'm definitely holding, but today's start was depressing.

 

When I see a pitcher get blown up, I look at the following factors:

 

Did their peripherals imply that they'd been using smoke and mirrors for their success prior to the blowup?

Is there any talent on the waiver wire?

 

I used the following logic to drop Reynaldo Lopez after his recent blowup, and the same logic to keep Nick Pivetta and now Caleb Smith after their bad outings. You've got to look at the big picture when reacting to a bad start.

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 I blame the last minute schedule change, he should have pitched last night 

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That's fine, but maeda was being dropped left and right, and he dominated Caleb in this one

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Swinging strike near 12%. Walks way too many and he hasn’t given anyone a reason to think that will change but I wouldn’t drop the potential upside if he figures it out.

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Bad starts happen, he did most of damage to himself, but what hurts is he had great match up on paper, Dodgers cant hit lefties.

 

Shame, but maybe another good lessen for him.

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12 hours ago, Cmilne23 said:

Eh, you guys must have nice staffs.  This start doesn’t move meter much for me.  He didn’t throw strikes.  He didn’t get hit.  He gave up big hit to Turner, that’s about it.  When you roster young arms you’ll have bouts with command issues.  If you can’t stomach some 4-5 walk games where he gets pulled at <4 then go look for some vets to fill staff out with.  If I rage dropped every arm that wasn’t precise I wouldn’t have a starter left on my team.  

Not every Caleb Smith drop was a rage drop. It depends on league makeup. If there are good arms on the waiver wire, I see no reason why an owner cannot drop Smith. Certain players you keep no matter what while others you throw away to the waiver pit. I always been a firm believer never get to attached to a certain player.

 

When I dropped Smith for Ivan Nova this morning in my H2H 12 team league it was not a rage drop. My staff is built upon acquiring the arm I believe in at the given moment. I need Nova more than I need Smith on my bench wasting space. When Caleb circles through waivers I will maybe put a waiver claim or not. I do like his next start @Mets.

 

 I agree about young arms and the bouts of wildness.

 

 

8 hours ago, flowbee said:

Still better than Duffy and Bundy

 

Today -- give me Bundy over Smith......

In the long run/season I think both Duffy & Bundy will be better than Smith. 

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It makes me laugh how one really bad inning from Smith erases all the good he provided over his last four starts.

 

Is he prone to a loss of command from time to time? Sure. But who, outside of the elite guys, isn’t? 

 

He certainly deserves a longer leash than some of you guys are giving. But, hey, if you want to drop him for a middling option then so be it.

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45 minutes ago, shakestreet said:

Not every Caleb Smith drop was a rage drop. It depends on league makeup. If there are good arms on the waiver wire, I see no reason why an owner cannot drop Smith. Certain players you keep no matter what while others you throw away to the waiver pit. I always been a firm believer never get to attached to a certain player.

 

When I dropped Smith for Ivan Nova this morning in my H2H 12 team league it was not a rage drop. My staff is built upon acquiring the arm I believe in at the given moment. I need Nova more than I need Smith on my bench wasting space. When Caleb circles through waivers I will maybe put a waiver claim or not. I do like his next start @Mets.

 

 I agree about young arms and the bouts of wildness.

 

 

 

Today -- give me Bundy over Smith......

In the long run/season I think both Duffy & Bundy will be better than Smith. 

No way Danny Duffy is better than Caleb Smith by the end of this season. Bundy and Smith are probably going to have similar numbers. Definitely not worth dropping Smith for bums like Ivan Nova. I think I would legitimately rather own Clayton Richard over Ivan Nova.

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3 minutes ago, elrey said:

No way Danny Duffy is better than Caleb Smith by the end of this season. Bundy and Smith are probably going to have similar numbers. Definitely not worth dropping Smith for bums like Ivan Nova. I think I would legitimately rather own Clayton Richard over Ivan Nova.

 

As someone who owns Ivan nova in a deep league where I can’t really drop him, I agree with this.

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13 hours ago, pbjfb said:

That's fine, but maeda was being dropped left and right, and he dominated Caleb in this one

Maeda doesn't have the sex appeal of being a shiny new toy, but he shouldn't be getting dropped in most leagues and I'd grab him if I could. Heck, I've been a big fan of Caleb but I'd probably trade him in for Maeda if I could. 

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2 hours ago, shakestreet said:

When I dropped Smith for Ivan Nova this morning in my H2H 12 team league it was not a rage drop. My staff is built upon acquiring the arm I believe in at the given moment. I need Nova more than I need Smith on my bench wasting space. When Caleb circles through waivers I will maybe put a waiver claim or not. I do like his next start @Mets.

 

Ivan Nova is a really bad example. There is no reason whatsoever to roster him over Caleb Smith. 

Smith is better a across the board - better ERA, better, FIP, SIERA, better SwStr%, way better K rate, allows fewer baserunners, fewer homeruns per 9 innings, etc.

 

Literally the only thing Nova is better at is limiting walks, but when that doesn't matter when you give well over a hit per inning. Nova is terrible with zero upside. Relatively speaking Smith has a pretty high ceiling.

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On 5/17/2018 at 11:57 PM, flowbee said:

Still better than Duffy and Bundy

 

On 5/18/2018 at 8:41 AM, shakestreet said:

In the long run/season I think both Duffy & Bundy will be better than Smith. 

 

Out of all people, Danny Duffy?

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On 5/18/2018 at 7:41 AM, shakestreet said:

Today -- give me Bundy over Smith......

In the long run/season I think both Duffy & Bundy will be better than Smith. 

 

I don't think I can go with you on that one. His FIP fully supports his redonkulous ERA right now, while Smith's suggest his ERA still has some positive regression in it. I understand FIP isn't the end-all-be-all, but it seems to be a decent indicator. 

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This was a cake matchup vs the Mets today, with two of their better hitters (Nimmo/Conforto) as lefties and Cespedes hurt.  I didn't want to jinx it too much, but I was pretty optimistic.

 

Great results. 5 base runners in 6.2 IP with 8ks, and the worst was one double. The inning he allowed a run, there was just one hit (no walks), could have very easily been a 0 run game.

 

Hope people didn't jump off after one start. His next matchup is at SD, which I think is probably slightly tougher than this one, but not by much. He's a start there.

Edited by brockpapersizer
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36 minutes ago, rrrrich46 said:

Is he next up on Sunday?

 

I believe he is gonna be a two-starter next week.

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4 hours ago, Picard56 said:

 

I believe he is gonna be a two-starter next week.

 

@SD, @ARI - I picked him up as I'm thinking of starting him in a points league for his two starts over Cole against BOS

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On 5/17/2018 at 2:41 PM, Dirtywater97 said:

Going to pull a J.A. Happ next week against the Mets. Don't get too high or too low after any start.

Not quite a J.A. Happ, but shoot I'll take it!

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I wish I started him this week but you can't start everybody.  The K's are real it seems.  SD K's a ton, and Arizona has a gawd awful offense.  He's certainly a 2 start option in all formats next week. 

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I don't know how they calculate pitch value, but 95 from the left side is pretty strong. At the very least, they don't see it everyday from that release point.

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4 minutes ago, Bravesfan155 said:

I don't know how they calculate pitch value, but 95 from the left side is pretty strong. At the very least, they don't see it everyday from that release point.

 

Well for values like that we aren't talking about how good a pitch IS but the RESULTS from it. 

 

Here's a positive to that tho-- early on in the season when he wasn't trusting his stuff and falling behind a lot, his SLG was much worse. In April, his SLG allowed on his 4-Seamer was .489. In May it has been .356. 

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