taobball

Caleb Smith 2018 Outlook

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7 minutes ago, arthurpete said:

 

You cant use those kind of stats (FIP, xFIP, BABIP) to evaluate 1 game.

 

Yes I can actually. It informs how he performed in the 1 game. They aren't the end all be all. They have to be taken with a grain of salt. But that is why I posted many other stats in my analysis of the 1 game. You can ignore them if you wish.

Edited by lassetjus

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57 minutes ago, lassetjus said:

 

Yes I can actually. It informs how he performed in the 1 game.

 

They have to be taken with a grain of salt

 ?

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6 hours ago, fawkes_mulder said:

Don’t want to derail this thread but there’s a fair chance that Romero and Soroka are better than Caleb Smith (and I love Caleb). Would try to grab those guys...

 

 

 

 

 

Of course there's a chance. Personnally I have Smith ranked a tad higher than Romero right now and both over Soroka. I like all three, but all things considered I am leaning Smith amongst the three. 

 

1 hour ago, arthurpete said:

 

You cant use those kind of stats (FIP, xFIP, BABIP) to evaluate 1 game.

 

You can use any stat as long as you fairly evaluate it's meaning. There's a difference between making too much out of spilled milk and simply acknowledging "oh, the milk spilled," if that makes sense. 

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1 hour ago, lassetjus said:

 

Yes I can actually. It informs how he performed in the 1 game. They aren't the end all be all. They have to be taken with a grain of salt. But that is why I posted many other stats in my analysis of the 1 game. You can ignore them if you wish.

 

His low babip doesnt mean he was lucky yesterday, he just outpitched Padres. Almost didnt throw any fb with first pitch and he kept them guessing all game what is comming next. His Ks were down but Padres got almost no good contact, bunch of late swings generating lots of IF pop-ups.

 

I think he did fantastic job pitching, very mature.

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Just now, taobball said:

You can use any stat as long as you fairly evaluate it's meaning. There's a difference between making too much out of spilled milk and simply acknowledging "oh, the milk spilled," if that makes sense. 

 

Sure but its relative significance comes into question and therefore the legitimacy of the "analysis"

 

Just trying to help the guy out. Maybe i should have expanded a bit. If we want to evaluate 1 start from a pitcher we shouldnt be looking at figures that take 70 balls in play to stabilize (GB%) let alone the 2000 data points that BABIP (for pitchers) requires, especially when the data from  a very small sample size of one game is not reflective of his also very small sample size for the entire season. 

 

There are better ways to go about this, we all know this.

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7 hours ago, Letitbe793 said:

His k-bb% of 19.5% is top 30 (27th) among SPs with at least 40 IP this year. 

The difference between him and all of the other top 30 is his BB% is nearly double most of the rest at 12.2% (4.56 BB/9)

I think he can be a top 45 or so SP rest of way but i expect some regression in Ks and and ERA with him putting that many runners on. Its a good thing his home is such a pitcher friendly park. 

 

You may be right, but his walks don't look all that bad. Since he started putting up better pitching lines, he's had one dud in which he walked four in three innings. He was obviously off that day, and I do suspect there will be more days like that. However -- aside from that start -- from April 22 until now he's walked 7 batters in 37.2 innings. Even including that start, he's walked 11 in 40.2 innings, which is pretty good. 

 

I think when you take his BB%, you almost have to exclude his first three starts when he walked 12 in 10.1 innings because he has largely been a different pitcher since then. You said you expect regression with him putting that many runners on...the fact is that he really hasn't been putting that many runners on. His season WHIP is 1.15, and that includes those first three starts. Since then, his WHIP is 0.84. Now will he keep that up all season? Doubtful, but he's been that productive over the course of his last 7 starts, and he's been pretty consistent through those starts, despite the notable dud on May 17. 

 

Maybe there will be some regression...I wouldn't be surprised. But if he is a "top 45 or so SP rest of way" like you think he can be, then that's great. In a 12-teamer, that makes him an SP4...pretty good for a guy every single one of us picked up out of the FA bin. 

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2 hours ago, lassetjus said:

 

Yes I can actually. It informs how he performed in the 1 game. They aren't the end all be all. They have to be taken with a grain of salt. But that is why I posted many other stats in my analysis of the 1 game. You can ignore them if you wish.

Those stats were always a means of measuring pitchers in a larger sample..its how they were tested and adjusted from. Blanketing over a pitchers season. The fact that a pitcher can have a negative FIP kinda shows its flaw

 

A single game for a pitcher has a lot more nuances because a pitchers command and feel can vary from game to game. Pitch data and how he actually looks are much better gauges of a guy in a single game then data based off innings/Plate apperences/ etc that need a bigger sample to make sense of it

Edited by Slatykamora
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1 hour ago, arthurpete said:

There are better ways to go about this, we all know this.

This is usually my general point. To me... well I never use FIP or xFIP or SIERA... but if I do, it's for the components. If someone tells me FIP and xFIP and say the xFIP is way higher I'd expect him to have a low HR rate... or correlations of that nature. Which do somewhat show up in a single game as well. A single game-low FIP essentially does suggest that you didn't give your fielders a ton of opportunities to f--- you, pardon the french. 

 

 

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8 hours ago, Letitbe793 said:

His k-bb% of 19.5% is top 30 (27th) among SPs with at least 40 IP this year. 

The difference between him and all of the other top 30 is his BB% is nearly double most of the rest at 12.2% (4.56 BB/9)

I think he can be a top 45 or so SP rest of way but i expect some regression in Ks and and ERA with him putting that many runners on. Its a good thing his home is such a pitcher friendly park. 

 

17 minutes ago, Flyman75 said:

he walked 12 in 10.1 innings 

 

This is the long and short of it. 

 

He's had one bad BB start fairly recently, so it's not like we can say the issues are completely gone, but they have been gone enough and at a high enough rate that I don't see any reason to suspect that he's going to have a terribly high BB/9. 

 

First 4 Starts:

6.89 ERA

8.6 BB/9 (15 BBs in 15.2 IPs)

1.98 WHIP

 

Last 7 Starts:

2.21 ERA

2.4 BB/9 (11 BBs in 40.2 IPs)

0.84 WHIP

 

*cough*that just became a tweet*cough*

 

The actionable change is simply confidence. Part of the evidence that confidence could have helped him is the fact that, as I stated in the OP, he had a 2.57 BB/9 in his last 17 GS in AAA. That's not bad control. And now that he's in the zone, and his hit rate, home run rate, and K rate are all staying good... that has to boost your confidence a great deal.

 

And as referenced in the quotations above, not a good team, but a damn good park. I do overlook wins a bit, for obvious reasons, so he's clearly getting a knock there, but in the National League in Marlins park and at 27 years old instead of being very young, I like Smith to keep up close to top 30 numbers. 

 

 

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10 hours ago, lassetjus said:

I own Smith but not too excited about this start. Only 4 K's leaves a lot to the BABIP gods. . Sure enough they liked him today with a .150 BABIP. Only 19% ground balls is asking for HR trouble. FIP for the game was 4.25 and xFIP was 5.39!  His entire season xFIP is 3.91 so you can see how this start was actually not one of his better ones when you look under the hood. Only 9 whiffs and 25% called strikes plus whiffs which often comes with bad results according to pitcherlist.com.

Not to pile on, but this is a shining example of how a looking at only a box score and advanced stats can be misleading. 

 

I watched his entire start and the Padres as a team clearly came in with a plan to swing early and often, to avoid falling behind in counts. Smith did a great job of quickly recognizing it and making an adjustment, offering up pitches early in the count that looked enticing but were not easily squared up. The result was a ton of weak contact, including many pop ups. There were only three hard hit balls off him the entire game, including the home run. 

 

I came away really impressed with the start. Not necessarily from a "stuff" standpoint, but that he has the mental makeup to recognize an opponents strategy and make effective in-game adjustments. 

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I’d also add ...

 

That one start Caleb Smith has early in the season vs Philli. The game log looks gross and the walks from that start are putting a serious dent in his walk numbers and control for the entire year. If you watch that start and put it into context, he’s a rookie pitcher who was making his first road start in Phillis season opener with an energetic crowd , you could tell he as nervous. He had one atrocious  first inning and pitched well after.  

 

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39 minutes ago, brockpapersizer said:

I’d also add ...

 

That one start Caleb Smith has early in the season vs Philli. The game log looks gross and the walks from that start are putting a serious dent in his walk numbers and control for the entire year. If you watch that start and put it into context, he’s a rookie pitcher who was making his first road start in Phillis season opener with an energetic crowd , you could tell he as nervous. He had one atrocious  first inning and pitched well after.  

 

 

And even more hindsight, that Phillies team is not nearly as bad as most expected them to be at the beginning of the year. 

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Thoughts in his @ARI start coming up ? 

 

I might need to stream a start this week and ARI has been friendly to SP's, humidor+ARI not hitting well. 

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3 minutes ago, tonywow said:

Thoughts in his @ARI start coming up ? 

 

I might need to stream a start this week and ARI has been friendly to SP's, humidor+ARI not hitting well. 

I am streaming him tomorrow...

 

I also streamed Heaney, Romero, Maeda and Ross this week so expect fireworks

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5 minutes ago, LarryDavid said:

Yeah I’m starting him.. no need to have any of the “streaming” talk at this point.  

 

Absolutely agree.  Smith has moved way beyond the "streaming pitchers pool."

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[ League size derail removed. Whatever your intent is, bringing league depth into the discussion takes the discussion away from the general valuation of the player and into specific league contexts that doesn't work well in outlook threads. If someone says they're streaming a player and you think they should be owned everywhere, there are much better ways to say that than "LOL have fun in your 6 team league." ] 

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2 minutes ago, MackAttack007 said:

WTF happened tonight. 

 

Baseball.

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I streamed him muhahahaha

 

not even stream worthy at this point

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It was a risky start nonetheless.  On the road in a launching pad even though AZ sucks right now.  I still started him sadly 

Edited by beauso79

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Hold. I don’t throw 11k/9 starters into the recycling bin. He’s a definite work in progress and having the control issues while already being 26 gives me a bit of pause but I’ve seen enough this year to give him some time.

Edited by Marty Funkhouser

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He's not an ace. I'm perfectly content with a 3.50-3.75 ERA. He'll have these starts every now and then.

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