RMJ_12

Davante Adams 2018 Outlook

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I started this thread to see if anybody can change my mind on him lol.

 

My buddy and I have been debating about him for a few days now.  I'm not nearly as high on him as current ADP.

 

He's never had a 1000 yard season.

He relies on TD's.

His skill set isn't extremely talented.

The Packers have a new red zone target in Jimmy Graham.

He's never been good when matching up against #1 corners.

 

Honestly I could see someone else emerging in this offense.  Maybe I'm way off but I don't see myself drafting him on any teams.  Thoughts?

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Mike Clay is projecting him to lead the league in receiving TDs, so that's definitely a reason to sell. 

 

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I agree that Adams doesn't really impress physically, but he seems to have learned the position well and QBs seem to love him.  He was top 10 PPG in PPR, I believe, and that was with Rogers missing games.  Yes, those nice PPG stats were padded by 10 scores, but how much regression could he really experience with Rogers as his trigger man?  

 

If he stays priced at the end of the second round in 12 teamers, that's not too unreasonable, especially if you're one to assume that GB will bleed points this season.   Rogers could throw more scores this season than he ever has.

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14 minutes ago, Rolling Thunder said:

I agree that Adams doesn't really impress physically, but he seems to have learned the position well and QBs seem to love him.  He was top 10 PPG in PPR, I believe, and that was with Rogers missing games.  Yes, those nice PPG stats were padded by 10 scores, but how much regression could he really experience with Rogers as his trigger man?  

 

If he stays priced at the end of the second round in 12 teamers, that's not too unreasonable, especially if you're one to assume that GB will bleed points this season.   Rogers could throw more scores this season than he ever has.

He was actually targeted more with Hundley I believe.  I don't think he was any better with Rodgers than he was without him.

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35 minutes ago, RMJ_12 said:

He was actually targeted more with Hundley I believe.  I don't think he was any better with Rodgers than he was without him.

 

But Jordy is gone.  That has to be a boost for him and now he's the number 1 target for the first time playing with an elite QB with a D that can't stop anyone.

 

How can you guys be down on him?  

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Posted (edited)
59 minutes ago, RMJ_12 said:

He was actually targeted more with Hundley I believe.  I don't think he was any better with Rodgers than he was without him.

 

No Hundley really peppered him with targets. But this is not a reason to sell Adams, look at the season he had prior with Rodgers. 75 / 997 / 12. Jordy is gone, Adams is ascending into his prime and will be targeted more by default, Cobb too.

 

 22 TDs in the past 2 years (30 games). Could very well regress on TDs (his TD floor is 6-7) but break 80 catches, 1000 yards.

Edited by beotos
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36 minutes ago, theSPANKER said:

 

But Jordy is gone.  That has to be a boost for him and now he's the number 1 target for the first time playing with an elite QB with a D that can't stop anyone.

 

How can you guys be down on him?  

Wasn't Jordy basically gone last year?  Only 88 targets, down from 153 in 2016.  I could see someone else stepping into that role and collecting close to that many targets.  Plus now Graham is there.

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2 hours ago, RMJ_12 said:

Wasn't Jordy basically gone last year?  Only 88 targets, down from 153 in 2016.  I could see someone else stepping into that role and collecting close to that many targets.  Plus now Graham is there.

 

I believe that Adams is no worse off in PPR with Jordy out and Graham in.  Probably not worse off in standard either.

 

Isn't it really as simple as Rogers virtually guarantees that Adams will produce?  We have more than enough data now regarding the Rogers/Adams connection. It is plenty strong, and we know that Adams has enough talent and experience to hold up his side of it.

 

As long as Rogers is Rogers, his preferred weapons will eat.  Just ask James Jones and Jordy Nelson.

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2 hours ago, Rolling Thunder said:

 

I believe that Adams is no worse off in PPR with Jordy out and Graham in.  Probably not worse off in standard either.

 

As long as Rogers is Rogers, his preferred weapons will eat.  Just ask James Jones and Jordy Nelson.

He would have to be much better off with a 2.10 ADP.

 

I think James Jones is what proves how unpredictable this situation can be.  Why can't it be Geronimo Allison or an incoming rookie?  Is Adams really that talented?  He's played with the best QB in the game and doesn't have a 1000 yard season.

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Oh, as a postscript to my comments about Adams and Rodgers, I really do know his name is "Rodgers," not "Rogers."  :wacko:

 

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1 hour ago, RMJ_12 said:

He would have to be much better off with a 2.10 ADP.

 

I think James Jones is what proves how unpredictable this situation can be.  Why can't it be Geronimo Allison or an incoming rookie?  Is Adams really that talented? 

 

Why does Adam "have to be much better" in 2018 to return value at 2.10 in a 12 teamer?  He was the 9th or 10th best WR in PPR in 2017.  At 2.10, he'd probably be the 8-10th WR off the board in most drafts.

 

Disagree that there is anything "unpredictable" about what Rodgers did for James Jones.  Jones was a vet who knew what Rodgers wanted out of a WR.  When Rodgers gets what he wants from a WR, there is little that will stop Rodgers from making the WR productive.  We now have two full seasons of proof that Adams knows what Rodgers wants out of him (Adams).  Rodgers is not going away from Adams any less anytime soon.  Jordy Nelson's career proves that.

 

As for Adams "talent," all anyone needs to say is that it is more than sufficient to hold up his side of the "bargain" that now exists between him and Rodgers.

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You can surely bank on at least 74 catches- he caught 74 and 75 the past two years (missed 3 games total also btw).    He's cracked double digit TD's each of the last two seasons.   You can bank on him producing in the red zone.   There's the floor.      That's high WR2 right there, even if he slips to, say, 8 TD's.  

 

Now, Jordy is gone, and Rodgers is back.   There's a ****ton of volume to be had, and if Adams doesn't eclipse his career high in yardage, by FAR, with a full season here, something bizarre has to happen.  There's Jimmy Graham, but how many targets is he really getting?  The red zone threat there is real, but its the Packers, there are enough TD balls to go around.  

 

If you're not thinking its dangerous to use 2016 as a gauge, entertain the following:

-There's still a three pronged RB committee-  then it was Lacy, TyMont, and Starks.  A couple names are different now but not much changed here

-Jared Cook and Richard Rodgers combined for 98 targets in '16.   Graham can get 100 targets easily without detracting from Adams

-Cobb had 84 targets.   Many expect him to bump in Nelson's absence-  but there isn't much higher he can go here

-That leaves Adams and Nelson, who got 273 targets combined................... Adams is going to be a MONSTER in targets- now top 7 or 8 in the league.   This is where the yards he wasn't getting before will come from.   This is where he gets to 90 catches, and still puts up TD's.    

 

 

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In 2016 D Adams finished with 171 points in standard good for a WR7 finish and played 16 games. Jordy finished with 207 points and finished as the WR2. Rodgers played the full season.

 

In 2017 Da Adams finished with 148 points in standard and finished as the WR11 and played 14 games. Jordy finished with 84 points and finished off the map. Rodgers only played 7 (6 1/2) games.

 

I am not sold on Adams but it seems to me like he improved a bit last year vs 2016. He was very hit of miss in 2016: blow up games and nothing games. Last year, he was pretty consistent even with the QB change. That was especially valuable last year since may of the WRs who finished in the top 20 were almost unstartable for stretches last season (right Keenen Allan??? Nice Championship weekend effort chief! I digress.) 

 

There are two things that make me nervous about Adams 1) There is no real sample size of him being the #1 with Rodgers. I know J Nelson wasn't his usual self last season, but defenses didn't know that most if not all of the games Rodgers was playing. 2) His concussions. He's had 3 in two years with two coming last year. 

 

I guess the other reason I am sort of nervous about him is he didn't deliver his first two years, but thinking about it, I don't think that's fair. There was a lot of hype around him and when he didn't immediately deliver it sort of dinged his rep. The thing is though, he did start to do well his 3rd year. Isn't that when NFL WRs are supposed to start putting everything together? Maybe we've gotten too caught up in hype trains and forgotten this?

 

I would take Adams as a WR in standard but I wouldn't want to depend on him as a #1. I could see myself taking him in the early 3rd in standard but would want a solid WR2 with some upside like Golden Tate and lean a bit more on taking WRs as the draft progresses. 

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3 hours ago, RMJ_12 said:

He would have to be much better off with a 2.10 ADP.

 

I think James Jones is what proves how unpredictable this situation can be.  Why can't it be Geronimo Allison or an incoming rookie?  Is Adams really that talented?  He's played with the best QB in the game and doesn't have a 1000 yard season.

 

On one hand, DAdams received a 4-year 58 million dollar extension. I think this is absolutely nuts considering they could have landed Allen Robinson for the same price tag (3-year 42 million with da Bears), nuttier considering Jordan Matthews signed a 1-year 1 million dollar contract. I like Adams, but I don't love him, and it appears someone in Green Bay does. Is he really a star #1 WR? Meh. I guess he's improved on his drops, so there's that.

 

But the point you make with James Jones is spot on. Aaron Rodgers may help to make Adams a star, or he may target whoever's open, whoever ain't dropping balls, or whoever he feels like. James Jones shows up for a one-year contract and cranks out a quick 8 TDs (in 50 receptions), and he played excellently, making catches that I've never seen Adams make, that I'm not sure Adams could make (see two attached examples). Point being: can someone become the next Jones and relegate Adams' value to more of Round 3 to Round 4? Definitely. And although you mention Geronimo / a rookie, I wouldn't be surprised if it's Ty Montgomery as we see him switch more to WR in usage. With an ADP in the teens, I'd sooner grab TyMont over Round 2 Adams any day.

 

Week5-JJ-small.jpg

Week11-Jamesjones_small.jpg

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3 minutes ago, FreakFries said:

In 2016 D Adams finished with 171 points in standard good for a WR7 finish and played 16 games. Jordy finished with 207 points and finished as the WR2. Rodgers played the full season.

 

In 2017 Da Adams finished with 148 points in standard and finished as the WR11 and played 14 games. Jordy finished with 84 points and finished off the map. Rodgers only played 7 (6 1/2) games.

 

I am not sold on Adams but it seems to me like he improved a bit last year vs 2016. He was very hit of miss in 2016: blow up games and nothing games. Last year, he was pretty consistent even with the QB change. That was especially valuable last year since may of the WRs who finished in the top 20 were almost unstartable for stretches last season (right Keenen Allan??? Nice Championship weekend effort chief! I digress.) 

 

There are two things that make me nervous about Adams 1) There is no real sample size of him being the #1 with Rodgers. I know J Nelson wasn't his usual self last season, but defenses didn't know that most if not all of the games Rodgers was playing. 2) His concussions. He's had 3 in two years with two coming last year. 

 

I guess the other reason I am sort of nervous about him is he didn't deliver his first two years, but thinking about it, I don't think that's fair. There was a lot of hype around him and when he didn't immediately deliver it sort of dinged his rep. The thing is though, he did start to do well his 3rd year. Isn't that when NFL WRs are supposed to start putting everything together? Maybe we've gotten too caught up in hype trains and forgotten this?

 

I would take Adams as a WR in standard but I wouldn't want to depend on him as a #1. I could see myself taking him in the early 3rd in standard but would want a solid WR2 with some upside like Golden Tate and lean a bit more on taking WRs as the draft progresses. 

 

An argument for Adams is that opponents last year even when Rodgers was playing started shadowing Adams rather than Jordy with their #1 CB. 

 

Here is a great article he wrote in December:

 

https://www.theplayerstribune.com/en-us/articles/davante-adams-green-bay-five-toughest-nfl

 

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28 minutes ago, joshua18 said:

 

An argument for Adams is that opponents last year even when Rodgers was playing started shadowing Adams rather than Jordy with their #1 CB. 

 

Here is a great article he wrote in December:

 

https://www.theplayerstribune.com/en-us/articles/davante-adams-green-bay-five-toughest-nfl

 

 

Interesting article. Thanks for the post. The fact that Adams can write boosts his ADP for me, though when he speaks about his route and says, " I was a mile from where I was supposed to be" it has me thinking, How many times has he said or thought or done this? I wish GB had snatched up ARob --- his level of perfectionism seems to be more in tune with Rodgers'.

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Posted (edited)
4 hours ago, RMJ_12 said:

"He would have to be much better off with a 2.10 ADP. I think James Jones is what proves how unpredictable this situation can be.  Why can't it be Geronimo Allison or an incoming rookie?  Is Adams really that talented? He's played with the best QB in the game and doesn't have a 1000 yard season."

 

Someone posted that in 2016 he had 997 receiving yards. Had he had those 3 extra yards, it would make all the difference? Looks more like something to throw against the wall. I agree with RT & others, Rodgers made guys like James Jones & Jordo... Coming out, Adams a had a few seasons in a spread offense vs lower level competition. So there was going to be a developmental phase & he had some bad drops early on, no doubt about it. You look at say, Martavis Bryant's mugshot & you can tell he's a WR. With Adams, he has the neck of a roided FB. e; Those shoulders and that length, deadly climbing the ladder, he's a serious presence. This is a prolific aerial attack & he's now their primary! They don't know whether he's legit? Could be wrong but I'm rolling with McCarthy, Rodgers & that organization knowing their own player. 

 

Allison & another guy they have is Michael Clark. Perhaps, but Clark especially isn't far enough along, I don't think. Graham helps make all coverage decisions bad. It's just me, but I still like Montgomery a lot. The argument there was never; up until the play he got hurt, that he'd lead the league in touches. I don't know why they went so heavy on him, probably because he was so effective. Elsewhere others have suggested that Jones or Williams are going to displace Monty as the lead 'back, which I disagree with. Neither of them are as versatile. When they want speed to the perimeter, that's #88. When they want to run their very effective screen game, that's #88. When they want to create a mismatch with a RB, that too is #88. Their aggressive offseason suggests they're all in. 

Edited by markrc99

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1 hour ago, markrc99 said:

 

Someone posted that in 2016 he had 997 receiving yards. Had he had those 3 extra yards, it would make all the difference? Looks more like something to throw against the wall. I agree with RT & others, Rodgers made guys like James Jones & Jordo... Coming out, Adams a had a few seasons in a spread offense vs lower level competition. So there was going to be a developmental phase & he had some bad drops early on, no doubt about it. You look at say, Martavis Bryant's mugshot & you can tell he's a WR. With Adams, he has the neck of a roided FB. e; Those shoulders and that length, deadly climbing the ladder, he's a serious presence. This is a prolific aerial attack & he's now their primary! They don't know whether he's legit? Could be wrong but I'm rolling with McCarthy, Rodgers & that organization knowing their own player. 

 

Graham helps make all coverage decisions bad. It's just me, but I still like Montgomery a lot. The argument there was never; up until the play he got hurt, that he'd lead the league in touches. I don't know why they went so heavy on him, probably because he was so effective. Elsewhere others have suggested that Jones or Williams are going to displace Monty as the lead 'back, which I disagree with. Neither of them are as versatile. When they want speed to the perimeter, that's #88. When they want to run their very effective screen game, that's #88. When they want to create a mismatch with a RB, that too is #88. Their aggressive offseason suggests they're all in. 

 

I agree. Don't think it's too far fetched to believe that Adams + Graham + Montgomery account for 3/4 of Rodgers' TDs this season.

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2 hours ago, cohenstantinople said:

 

Interesting article. Thanks for the post. The fact that Adams can write boosts his ADP for me, though when he speaks about his route and says, " I was a mile from where I was supposed to be" it has me thinking, How many times has he said or thought or done this? I wish GB had snatched up ARob --- his level of perfectionism seems to be more in tune with Rodgers'.

 

so ur the local anti- Adams contingent, eh?

 

1100/7 would have made him a wr1 this season.   That is historically on the low side...but I’m struggling to see how a healthy Adams doesn’t get to at least that.  

 

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He has increased his catch percentage since 2015 when he bottomed out.

 

2014 - 57.6%

2015 - 53.2%

2016 - 62.0%

2017 - 63.2%

 

He was also catching more passes per game than anytime in his career. He is one of those guys I watched more closely last year and came away impressed.  Hoping to get him this year.

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I don't think he's going to finish where he did the last 2 years...he's either going to explode into a mid-tier WR1 (and pundits will treat it as fait accompli as Rodgers' clear #1), or he'll drop off to a low-end WR2 (and people will bring up his never topping 1000 yards). 

 

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I just am bullish on the fact that he's going to be top 5-10 in the NFL in targets, from Aaron Rodgers, and he's as likely as any WR to put up double digit TD's.    He's a WR1.   

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