RMJ_12

Davante Adams 2018 Outlook

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1 hour ago, seanismorris said:

Hundly is getting replaced with Kizer.

Yeah I don't get what your point is... like I said Hundley was good for Adams.

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1 hour ago, seanismorris said:

I’m taking talent, Aaron Rodger’s talent + an ascending WR + a much better situation.

The point is a player like Rodgers can target whoever he wants, especially when none of his WR's are supremely talented.  Who says it won't be someone else this year?  Remember James Jones?

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1 minute ago, RMJ_12 said:

The point is a player like Rodgers can target whoever he wants, especially when none of his WR's are supremely talented.  Who says it won't be someone else this year?  Remember James Jones?

 

Its going to be Adams- that’s what you’re banking on by drafting him.   His adp is exactly where Rodgers #1 wr should be. 

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1 minute ago, Impreza178 said:

 

Its going to be Adams- that’s what you’re banking on by drafting him.   His adp is exactly where Rodgers #1 wr should be. 

Exactly, and I won't touch him anywhere near that ADP.

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Just now, RMJ_12 said:

Exactly, and I won't touch him anywhere near that ADP.

 

I think that’s been established.   But you do understand why right? 

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People are sort of forgetting  when Rodgers runs the 2 min drill and gets extra seconds for big plays to develop with his mobility Davante can put up wr1 numbers in. . 2min :D

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4 minutes ago, RMJ_12 said:

Exactly, and I won't touch him anywhere near that ADP.

 

Why do u bother using ADP?  I find tiers are easier to manage and separate talent pools. numerical rankings tend to distort values.  

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2 hours ago, Impreza178 said:

 

Its going to be Adams- that’s what you’re banking on by drafting him.   His adp is exactly where Rodgers #1 wr should be. 

First we have to assume both Rodgers & Adams is healthy.  I think that’s a safe bet as any...

 

The last time Rodgers was healthy as 2016. 

Jordy Nelson:  was #2 in fantasy points (only 2.2pts behind A. Brown)

Davante Adams: was #9 in fantasy points

 

          Trgts-Recept, Yards-TDs

Nelson: 152-97, 1257-14

Adams: 121-75, 997-12

 

There’s your floor & ceiling.  Adams is now the #1 WR.  His numbers will be closer to Nelson’s 2016.  That put’s him firmly in top5 consideration.

 

In 2017 without Rodger’s, Adams had less targets than in 2016 even though he was supposed in the WR1 role.  Rodgers is massively more accurate than Hundley (Yes, it’s crazy to compare them).  

 

It’s no accident Adams has a 2nd round ADP.

 

 

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4 hours ago, dashoe said:

 

Why do u bother using ADP?  I find tiers are easier to manage and separate talent pools. numerical rankings tend to distort values.  

Because no matter what tier you have him in you still have to take him in the 2nd round to get him.

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4 hours ago, Impreza178 said:

 

Its going to be Adams- that’s what you’re banking on by drafting him.   His adp is exactly where Rodgers #1 wr should be. 

I'm pretty sure my point this entire time has been I'm not convinced he will be Rodgers #1 the entire season based on his talent level.

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6 minutes ago, RMJ_12 said:

I'm pretty sure my point this entire time has been I'm not convinced he will be Rodgers #1 the entire season based on his talent level.

Someone is going to come in and James Jones the s--- out of Adam's. Who knows who though?

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6 hours ago, hoppychokes said:

Someone is going to come in and James Jones the s--- out of Adam's. Who knows who though?

 

This makes no sense. Jones already had years of experience with Rodgers trusting him. There is no one comparable now who is a FA. This is 2018, not 2015.

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1 hour ago, joshua18 said:

 

This makes no sense. Jones already had years of experience with Rodgers trusting him. There is no one comparable now who is a FA. This is 2018, not 2015.

 

 

stevesmithsr.jpg

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Just now, cohenstantinople said:

 

 

stevesmithsr.jpg

 

It's not April 1st, bro

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Please let me have league mates who don’t realize Adams is a lock top ten WR and absolutely worthy of a 2nd round pick.

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The ONLY thing I'm concerned with is that he was concussed twice last year. Not something I want to see continue. Everything else will be fine. 

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Barring injury, his floor is 90 catches, 1200 yards, and 8 TDs.

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26 minutes ago, petekrum said:

Barring injury, his floor is 90 catches, 1200 yards, and 8 TDs.

 

How many targets do you project for him to reach those numbers?

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1 hour ago, petekrum said:

Barring injury, his floor is 90 catches, 1200 yards, and 8 TDs.

His floor is not over 200 yards more than his career high...

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12 minutes ago, RMJ_12 said:

His floor is not over 200 yards more than his career high...

Why not?  

 

If his catches increases by only 20% going from the #2 to #1 WR his yards increase by 200 yards.

 

 

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18 minutes ago, RMJ_12 said:

His floor is not over 200 yards more than his career high...

 

Yeah, it is.

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1 hour ago, joshua18 said:

 

How many targets do you project for him to reach those numbers?

I’ll answer for him: 140-150

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Posted (edited)

There is no way they don't bring in another wide receiver. Adams will draw a number 1 coverage and it may open up things for the number 2. It could be a scenario like the Broncos have with Sanders and Thomas. The Packers aren't what they used to be. Plus they have a legit tight end now

Edited by the_dying_dream

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1 hour ago, seanismorris said:

Why not?  

 

If his catches increases by only 20% going from the #2 to #1 WR his yards increase by 200 yards.

 

 

He was the #1 last year, what don't you guys get about that?

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20 minutes ago, RMJ_12 said:

He was the #1 last year, what don't you guys get about that?

He had a bottom 3 QB throwing to him.  What don’t you get about that?

 

Throw out that data.  It’s trash.  

 

We’re using 2016, where Adams had Rodgers, was the #2 receiver, and had the same amount of catches as 2017.  His target’s are going up as the #1... it’s basic math.

 

How much is the question.  The answer is Jordy Nelson who had 150+ targets.  That’s who Rodgers is, he throws a ton of balls, and elevates his receivers.  Adams had 12TD’s as the #2 receiver in 2016, and Nelson had more.  If Jimmy G gets 10+ TD’s, and the offense isn’t as effective, Adams still gets 10+ TDs.

 

Adams is probably the safest WR available in the 2nd round, and has the highest ceiling.

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