RMJ_12

Davante Adams 2018 Outlook

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1 minute ago, Impreza178 said:

 

Adams’ best stat is his tds...are we to assume all targets are created equal?   Seems a given the Pack will have more RZ chances and score more with Rodgers.  

 

The Packers also added a TE who's capable of 12+ TD's, especially with Rodgers throwing to him.

 

3 minutes ago, Impreza178 said:

 

It’s one thing to get targeted heavily in short stretches by a backup qb-  AB had great numbers when BB went out after all....  are you claiming a backup qb is a good thing for WR stats as a rule?  

 

No, I'm stating that it's a fact the Brett Hundley targeted Adams more frequently than Aaron Rodgers did.  Therefore his stats didn't suffer as a result of not having Rodgers.  His efficiency went down but his target share went up. 

 

As I explain before it's the same as when DeAndre Hopkins was better with Tom Savage than he was with DeShaun Watson.  Which is also a fact.

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10 minutes ago, RMJ_12 said:

The Packers also added a TE who's capable of 12+ TD's, especially with Rodgers throwing to him.

 

No, I'm stating that it's a fact the Brett Hundley targeted Adams more frequently than Aaron Rodgers did.  Therefore his stats didn't suffer as a result of not having Rodgers.  His efficiency went down but his target share went up. 

 

As I explain before it's the same as when DeAndre Hopkins was better with Tom Savage than he was with DeShaun Watson.  Which is also a fact.

 

Graham does not have years of chemistry built up with Rodgers.  It’s much more logical- to me- to assume Adams is the primary beneficiary of Jordys departure.    I like Graham too but we are talking about a qb likely to throw 35ish tds.   To a wr who has already led the league in tds over last 2 seasons.   There’s almost no way Adams can go under 1000/8.  Could be 1300/12.  Right in line with his ADP.    

 

This is how the Packers do it.  Take smart, team first guys in the second rounds over Uber talented 1st round picks.  

 

Jennings, Nelson, Adams all fit this profile.  

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9 minutes ago, Impreza178 said:

I like Graham too but we are talking about a qb likely to throw 35ish tds.   To a wr who has already led the league in tds over last 2 seasons.   There’s almost no way Adams can go under 1000/8.  Could be 1300/12.  Right in line with his ADP.    

 

I could definitely see 1000/8.  Because I don't think much is going to change.  How is that worth a 2nd round pick?

 

9 minutes ago, Impreza178 said:

 

Graham does not have years of chemistry built up with Rodgers.  It’s much more logical- to me- to assume Adams is the primary beneficiary of Jordys departure.

 

The primary beneficiary of Jordy's departure will be the guy starting in Jordy's place.

 

You mean to tell me that you think Jimmy Graham is going to come to Green Bay and play with Aaron Rodgers, but have worse statistics than previous seasons?  Because they don't yet have a chemistry?  Stop.

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I’ll just leave this here and shrewd owners can take it for what it’s worth.    

 

“In 2014 and 2016, Nelson was the Packers’ No. 1 receiver and Rodgers’ favorite target. He saw 151 targets in 2014 and 152 in 2016. It wouldn’t be unreasonable for Adams to see at least 151 targets in 2018, especially given the Packers’ current lack of depth at receiver.

So let’s say Adams handles 151 targets this season.

Over the last two years, Adams has averaged a catch rate of 62.6 percent and an average per catch of 12.6 yards. If he catches 62.6 percent of 151 targets, he’ll end 2018 with about 95 catches. And he averages 12.6 yards over 95 catches, he’ll finish with 1,197 yards.

What about touchdowns?

Of Adams’ 149 catches over the last two seasons, 22 have resulted in touchdowns. That’s a touchdown rate of 14.7 percent. That’s really high, but let’s go with it. If Adams catches a touchdown on 14.7 percent of 95 catches, he’d finish with 14 touchdowns.

Rough projection: 95 catches, 1197 yards, 14 touchdowns”

 

https://www.google.com/amp/s/packerswire.usatoday.com/2018/07/09/projecting-davante-adams-stats-as-packers-no-1-wr-in-2018/amp/

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

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21 minutes ago, RMJ_12 said:

I could definitely see 1000/8.  Because I don't think much is going to change.  How is that worth a 2nd round pick?

 

If you're saying that's his floor.......then yes, its 2nd round pick worthy.   There aren't 10 receivers with a higher floor than this IMO.      

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10 minutes ago, BrianM said:

 

If you're saying that's his floor.......then yes, its 2nd round pick worthy.   There aren't 10 receivers with a higher floor than this IMO.      

That's not his floor at all.  In fact he has yet to have a 1000 yard season.

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8 hours ago, RMJ_12 said:

It's the same reason DeAndre Hopkins was better with Tom Savage than he was with Deshaun Watson.  Don't act like it's a stupid concept.  He TARGETED him more.

Hopkins averaged over 18 points per game with Watson. Averaged 17 points per game without him. 

 

Nice try though. 

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5 minutes ago, RMJ_12 said:

That's not his floor at all.  In fact he has yet to have a 1000 yard season.

 

So you really think with no Nelson and a healthy Rodgers he's going to have less yards?    

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Is Adams elite in any facet?  He just seems to be a solid receiver all the way around.  Nelson is gone, that's true.  But I think Nelson is a far better receiver than Adams.

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17 minutes ago, RMJ_12 said:

That's not his floor at all.  In fact he has yet to have a 1000 yard season.

 

What does 1,000 yards tell you that 997 yards doesn't?

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6 minutes ago, kdko said:

Is Adams elite in any facet?  He just seems to be a solid receiver all the way around.  Nelson is gone, that's true.  But I think Nelson is a far better receiver than Adams.

 

Route running (especially double moves), contested catches, short-area quickness, to name a few. Plus unlike Jordy (and any other receiver there), he actually made Hundley look like a competent NFL starting QB.  Which shows that he's not just a product of Rodgers.

 

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40 minutes ago, Experienced Rookie said:

Hopkins averaged over 18 points per game with Watson. Averaged 17 points per game without him. 

 

Nice try though. 

No he didn't.

 

Nice try though.

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2 minutes ago, RMJ_12 said:

No he didn't.

 

Nice try though.

I literally just went to my 0.5 PPR league, sorted out weeks 2-8 with Watson, and weeks 9-16 without him. Those are the results I found. 

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37 minutes ago, wekko368 said:

 

What does 1,000 yards tell you that 997 yards doesn't?

It says that 1300 is a bad projection

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14 minutes ago, Experienced Rookie said:

I literally just went to my 0.5 PPR league, sorted out weeks 2-8 with Watson, and weeks 9-16 without him. Those are the results I found. 

Okay, and in full ppr that changes.

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59 minutes ago, BrianM said:

 

So you really think with no Nelson and a healthy Rodgers he's going to have less yards?    

People seem to act like Jordy Nelson's replacement with have 300 yards and 2 touchdowns lol. 

 

The difference between the WR2 and the TE before and the WR2 and TE now, if you combine them, isn't going to be much of a drop off statistically.  Somebody else will emerge in this offense as I've said before.  They drafted 3 rookies but nobody seems to think they'll see the field because Adams is just so amazing lol.

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Just now, RMJ_12 said:

People seem to act like Jordy Nelson's replacement with have 300 yards and 2 touchdowns lol. 

 

The difference between the WR2 and the TE before and the WR2 and TE now, if you combine them, isn't going to be much of a drop off statistically.  Somebody else will emerge in this offense as I've said before.  They drafted 3 rookies but nobody seems to think they'll see the field because Adams is just so amazing lol.

Your argument is just getting worse.    Now it’s Geronimo JAG and some mid round rooks we should fear?   

 

Adams confidence growing 

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Just now, Impreza178 said:

Your argument is just getting worse.    Now it’s Geronimo JAG and some mid round rooks we should fear?   

 

Adams confidence growing 

You're right, the Packers will probably just do 2 WR's sets with Adams on the outside and Cobb in the slot.  Looks real good to me.

 

Maybe you're forgetting what James Jones did in this offense?

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2 minutes ago, RMJ_12 said:

People seem to act like Jordy Nelson's replacement with have 300 yards and 2 touchdowns lol. 

 

The difference between the WR2 and the TE before and the WR2 and TE now, if you combine them, isn't going to be much of a drop off statistically.  Somebody else will emerge in this offense as I've said before.  They drafted 3 rookies but nobody seems to think they'll see the field because Adams is just so amazing lol.

 

Funny you used those exact numbers, then also pointed out that 3 rookies are coming on board.  No one argues that Jordy Nelson isn't talented, right?   His rookie year: 366 yards, 2 TD's.   

 

Greg Jennings- 11-104-3

Adams  38-446-3

Cobb 25-375-1

 

But yea- Equanimous St Brown or a 6th round pick is going to come in and buck this trend of rookie GB WR's, no matter how talented, being scaled back in their first season.     

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7 minutes ago, BrianM said:

 

Funny you used those exact numbers, then also pointed out that 3 rookies are coming on board.  No one argues that Jordy Nelson isn't talented, right?   His rookie year: 366 yards, 2 TD's.   

 

Greg Jennings- 11-104-3

Adams  38-446-3

Cobb 25-375-1

 

But yea- Equanimous St Brown or a 6th round pick is going to come in and buck this trend of rookie GB WR's, no matter how talented, being scaled back in their first season.     

Yes, the starting WR for the GB Packers will have 300 yards and 2 TD's.  You guys are becoming a joke.

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15 minutes ago, RMJ_12 said:

You're right, the Packers will probably just do 2 WR's sets with Adams on the outside and Cobb in the slot.  Looks real good to me.

 

Maybe you're forgetting what James Jones did in this offense?

Thats particularly amusing considering Jones’ value was his experience and familiarity with the offense.  

 

 Or maybe you simply struggle with math?   

Edited by Impreza178

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13 minutes ago, RMJ_12 said:

Yes, the starting WR for the GB Packers will have 300 yards and 2 TD's.  You guys are becoming a joke.

 

Nah, Cobb's gonna have a good bit more than that

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2 minutes ago, BrianM said:

 

Nah, Cobb's gonna have a good bit more than that

Cobb is a slot receiver, I said WIDE receiver.  Pretty simple concept.

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17 minutes ago, Impreza178 said:

Thats particularly amusing considering Jones’ value was his experience and familiarity with the offense.  

 

 Or maybe you simply struggle with math?   

No, but apparently you do.  I'm not projecting 14 TD's in that spot.  There doesn't need to be.

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5 minutes ago, RMJ_12 said:

Cobb is a slot receiver, I said WIDE receiver.  Pretty simple concept.

 

WTF? Time for someone to take their meds :lol:

Edited by dashoe
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