RMJ_12

Davante Adams 2018 Season Outlook

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Posted (edited)
24 minutes ago, predator_05 said:

 

Me: 5 well explained points on why Adams isn't worth a 2nd round pick.

 

You: "YEAH?!?!?! Well, you're STYOOOPID. And you're dumb!!! Adams will have 1100 yards....because i said so. So there."

 

That's basically how you look right now.

 

If they're "off-base", then tell me why. You can't have a debate if you're reacting like a kid from elementary school. I didn't call people disagreeing with me 'stupid', because i don't take it personally.

 

First of all, I didn't call your 5 points stupid.  You said he'd need 20 TDs to be in a category with Julio, Thomas, Green, or Evans, and that's what I called stupid

 

Second of all, why would I take your bad take about an NFL player personally?  Not like he's a relative or anything.

 

You're the one who is misremembering facts and mischaracterizing me, which tells me you may be the one taking my comments personally.

 

Your 5 points, and my responses:

1. He's never showed he can be a WR1 on his team.

> Except last year, when Jordy played the slot, and Adams drew CB1s, and he finished WR14 overall despite missing 2.5 games and playing with Brett Hundley. 

2. He doesn't make plays downfield, and isn't reliable.

> Are we watching the same Davante Adams?

3. Adams doesn't get a lot of receptions.

> But he gets a lot of touchdowns, and now his main competition for targets is gone.  He's had 75 as a WR2 on his team, and 74 in a shortened season with Hundley.  85+ is very reasonable now.

4. Cobb and Geronimo Allison and J'Mon Moore

> This is the point when I decided your 5 reasons weren't worth responding to.

5. The Packers have a strong run game

> Williams and Jones are decent players.  Rodgers is still going to throw 35+ TDs, so the point is irrelevant.

Edited by Lord_Varys
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7 minutes ago, predator_05 said:

 

 

 

Not sure why starts is in quotes but I'm glad you learned something. B)

I learned that you're bending the truth to justify your position. 

 

You claimed Cobb was his favorite RZ target for 3 years, even though Jordy had more TDs. 

 

Even if Jordy didn't have more TDs, how the hell is stats from 5 years ago relative now? Secondly, if they are relative, then Adams TD count from the last 2 years is also applicable, and to a higher degree seeing as how it's recent data. 

 

Cobb has averaged 5 TDs per season for 3 years straight. That's more who he is in 2018 than pulling his stats from 5 years ago. If you're expecting a 5'10 WR who has 10 TDs in the last 2 years to out-TD a 6'1 WR who has 22 TDs the last 2 years, there is no medication for your condition. 

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Ben, shut up, you’re embarrassing yourself.

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21 hours ago, predator_05 said:

I seriously question the knowledge of anyone that picks Adams over Julio, Thomas, Green or Keenan allen. He has done NOTHING to show that he belongs in that category of players.

 

KpJM9rW.jpg

 

 

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42 minutes ago, Lord_Varys said:

 

First of all, I didn't call your 5 points stupid.  You said he'd need 20 TDs to be in a category with Julio, Thomas, Green, or Evans, and that's what I called stupid

 

Second of all, why would I take your bad take about an NFL player personally?  Not like he's a relative or anything.

 

You're the one who is misremembering facts and mischaracterizing me, which tells me you may be the one taking my comments personally.

 

Your 5 points, and my responses:

1. He's never showed he can be a WR1 on his team.

> Except last year, when Jordy played the slot, and Adams drew CB1s, and he finished WR14 overall despite missing 2.5 games and playing with Brett Hundley. 

2. He doesn't make plays downfield, and isn't reliable.

> Are we watching the same Davante Adams?

3. Adams doesn't get a lot of receptions.

> But he gets a lot of touchdowns, and now his main competition for targets is gone.  He's had 75 as a WR2 on his team, and 74 in a shortened season with Hundley.  85+ is very reasonable now.

4. Cobb and Geronimo Allison and J'Mon Moore

> This is the point when I decided your 5 reasons weren't worth responding to.

5. The Packers have a strong run game

> Williams and Jones are decent players.  Rodgers is still going to throw 35+ TDs, so the point is irrelevant.

 

Nice, this was the response i was looking for. Glad we finally got here.

 

1. I mentioned that Hundley locked onto Adams in a way that Rodgers didn't. Adams' numbers with hundley are essentially meaningless in the context of this discussion. Does Rodgers have the same level of trust in Adams? Its a leap of faith to suggest that he does, since Adams has never shown he can be a number 1 receiver. All his stats so far are as a complementary WR.

 

2. I don't think so. The Adams i have seen drops passes and hasn't shown he can beat double coverage. It's a leap of faith to suggest that he suddenly changes. I'm sticking to the statement that he's nowhere near as reliable as jordy nelson was.

 

3. Touchdowns aren't as useful for predicting performance as yards or receptions. I like how people ignore the fact that he has under 5 receptions a game with Rodgers while pushing the TD stat. Saying he'll suddenly get 85+ receptions is a leap of faith.

 

4. Bad idea. I don't foresee GB suddenly abandoning 3 WR sets when that's what they've been doing for ages. Do you? 

 

5. This is the only prediction that isn't a leap of faith, but to suggest Adams is an automatic beneficiary definitely is.

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27 minutes ago, petekrum said:

Ben, shut up, you’re embarrassing yourself.

 

Go cook some spaghetti, grandpa. :D

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Posted (edited)
16 minutes ago, Lord_Varys said:
Quote
  21 hours ago, predator_05 said:

I seriously question the knowledge of anyone that picks Adams over Julio, Thomas, Green or Keenan allen. He has done NOTHING to show that he belongs in that category of players.

KpJM9rW.jpg

 

 

 

Bump

Edited by Lord_Varys

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56 minutes ago, Experienced Rookie said:

I learned that you're bending the truth to justify your position. 

 

You claimed Cobb was his favorite RZ target for 3 years, even though Jordy had more TDs. 

 

Even if Jordy didn't have more TDs, how the hell is stats from 5 years ago relative now? Secondly, if they are relative, then Adams TD count from the last 2 years is also applicable, and to a higher degree seeing as how it's recent data. 

 

Cobb has averaged 5 TDs per season for 3 years straight. That's more who he is in 2018 than pulling his stats from 5 years ago. If you're expecting a 5'10 WR who has 10 TDs in the last 2 years to out-TD a 6'1 WR who has 22 TDs the last 2 years, there is no medication for your condition. 

 

How can i bend the truth? 24 TDs in 28 starts IS a fact. I can't "bend" anything here, it is what it is.

 

I never said Cobb will score more TDs than Adams.

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17 minutes ago, Lord_Varys said:

 

KpJM9rW.jpg

 

 

 

Why standard and why not PPR?

 

And I'm not taking Marvin Jones over any of your highlighted names either.

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I’d be very happy getting D. Adams in the 2nd round. (12 person PPR)

 

My struggles is:

D. Adams vs. K. Allen vs. J. Jones

 

Adams: I expect 10+ TDs

Allen: I expect to be even more a target monster with the Henry out and Gates retired

Jones: I expect to bounce back in his 2nd year under a new OC

 

Injury risk might be the differentiator: Adams is projected to miss the least amount of games, and Julio the most.  But, P. Rivers is less likely to get injured than A. Rodgers.  

 

http://sportsinjurypredictor.com/rankings?InjuryPredictorRankingsForm[position]=WR

 

My only conclusion is I’ll be drafting a WR in the 2nd round...

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29 minutes ago, predator_05 said:

 

How can i bend the truth? 24 TDs in 28 starts IS a fact. I can't "bend" anything here, it is what it is.

 

I never said Cobb will score more TDs than Adams.

Because "28 starts" makes it sound like he only played 28 games. Duh. Add on the fact that you failed to mention all the other games he played. You're clearly bending the truth. 

 

You might not have explicitly stated that Cobb will have more TDs, but you implied it, or at least that it would be likely based on 5 year old numbers. 

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1 minute ago, Experienced Rookie said:

Because "28 starts" makes it sound like he only played 28 games. Duh. Add on the fact that you failed to mention all the other games he played. You're clearly bending the truth. 

 

You might not have explicitly stated that Cobb will have more TDs, but you implied it, or at least that it would be likely based on 5 year old numbers. 

 

??

 

59b80ec78f223_crazy_asian_face_by_zhanra

 

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10 minutes ago, predator_05 said:

 

??

 

59b80ec78f223_crazy_asian_face_by_zhanra

 

Hey look, another non answer. 

 

This is what happens when someone is getting owned. 

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Just now, Experienced Rookie said:

Hey look, another non answer. 

 

This is what happens when someone is getting owned. 

 

Congratulations, sir. Your trophy is in the mail.

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Posted (edited)
43 minutes ago, seanismorris said:

Injury risk might be the differentiator: Adams is projected to miss the least amount of games, and Julio the most.  But, P. Rivers is less likely to get injured than A. Rodgers.  

 

http://sportsinjurypredictor.com/rankings?InjuryPredictorRankingsForm[position]=WR

 

My only conclusion is I’ll be drafting a WR in the 2nd round...

 

Not all injuries are the same.

 

According to your link, Adams has 3 concussions over the last 2 years. That's not good. If you've suffered multiple concussions, you're three times more likely to have another one: https://www.webmd.com/fitness-exercise/news/20031118/one-concussion-increases-risk-of-more#1

 

I didn't mention this in my earlier posts, because predicting injuries is a crap-shoot. But a concussion history definitely scares me more than other injuries.

Edited by predator_05

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49 minutes ago, predator_05 said:

 

Not all injuries are the same.

 

According to your link, Adams has 3 concussions over the last 2 years. That's not good. If you've suffered multiple concussions, you're three times more likely to have another one: https://www.webmd.com/fitness-exercise/news/20031118/one-concussion-increases-risk-of-more#1

 

I didn't mention this in my earlier posts, because predicting injuries is a crap-shoot. But a concussion history definitely scares me more than other injuries.

 

Both Adams' concussions last year came from being illegally hit in the head.  In fact, both Trevathan and Davis were suspended for a game b/c of those hits.  Are you worried that defenders will continue to target Adams in an illegal manner?  I'm not.

 

 

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21 minutes ago, wekko368 said:

 

Both Adams' concussions last year came from being illegally hit in the head.  In fact, both Trevathan and Davis were suspended for a game b/c of those hits.  Are you worried that defenders will continue to target Adams in an illegal manner?  I'm not.

 

 

Why is that relevant?  He's still prone to more concussions now.

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It's not that he's prone to MORE concussions, but more severe symptoms/consequences if he were to receive another hard hit to the head.

 

I think every skill player runs very similar chances of receiving a concussion.

 

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16 minutes ago, RMJ_12 said:

Why is that relevant?  He's still prone to more concussions now.

 

It's giving context to his concussions.  If he were getting concussed on normal, legal hits, then yes, I'd be wary about having him on my team.  But he's not.  He's getting concussed from illegal hits.  Any player in the league would get concussed if they got hit like Adams did. 

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2 hours ago, predator_05 said:

 

Not all injuries are the same.

 

According to your link, Adams has 3 concussions over the last 2 years. That's not good. If you've suffered multiple concussions, you're three times more likely to have another one: https://www.webmd.com/fitness-exercise/news/20031118/one-concussion-increases-risk-of-more#1

 

I didn't mention this in my earlier posts, because predicting injuries is a crap-shoot. But a concussion history definitely scares me more than other injuries.

I’m not sure how the concussions factor into their calculations, but 3 in 2 years is a lot.  Adams already got paid, he’s probably going to report any symptoms and not risk playing through them.

 

Adams has more upside than Allen with Rodgers throwing him the ball.  I don’t think Rivers has ever produced a #1 for fantasy...

 

Every time I think I’ve eliminated one of these guys from being my 2nd round pick, I find a few stat.  Julio is the #2 PPR fantasy WR (AVE) over the last 3 years.  No injuries and consistently boosted him...

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1 hour ago, RMJ_12 said:

Why is that relevant?  He's still prone to more concussions now.

I don’t think how Adams received his concussions is relevant either... a concussion is a concussion.  Adams has to be concerned, as does the GB medical staff.  It gives Adams an increased chance of getting pulled and missing games...

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Posted (edited)

Just to make the K. Allen vs. D. Adams vs. J. Jones debate more complicated...

 

My too quick conclusions looking at looking at 2017 matchups...

 

D. Adams does well even against tough defenses.

K. Allen dominates bad teams, but struggles a bit agains good D’s.

J. Jones disappears randomly, and has the lowest lows in fantasy but when he goes off you’re winning that week.

 

In 2018 Green Bay has the toughest schedule in the league.

In 2018 the Chargers has the 25th toughest schedule (very easy).

 

That means Adams will probably be consistent, but Allen will have more fantasy points.

 

What do you want in your #1 WR?  

(I realize I occasionally contradict myself, but I’ll looking at different data points) 

Edited by seanismorris

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21 hours ago, Experienced Rookie said:

There's 4300 yards and 39 TDs to go around. 

 

Adams 1250 - 11

Graham 750 - 10

Cobb 900 - 6

Allison 575 - 5

Ty Mont 350 - 3

Williams 200 - 1

Jones 200 - 1

 

With an extra 275 yards and 2 TDs going to random WR4 or TE2. 

No ESB on here? He’s getting 900/8 so...

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