RMJ_12

Davante Adams 2018 Season Outlook

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Posted (edited)

This is simple. Captain Always Pass Never Run The Ball Rodgers is going to throw and throw and throw until his arm falls of to keep his team competitive in a stacked NFC. Davante is going to catch alot of balls.  I would take him as my wr1 in every format.

Period :D

Edited by dashoe
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8 hours ago, Rolling Thunder said:

 

I usually see alot to agree with in your posts, so that's why I really believe you need to take a harder look at Adams (the player he is today, not the player he was in 2015) and his very favorable circumstances.  I would predict with some confidence that if Adams and Rogers stay healthy, Adams will out-perform as many as 10 of the guys you reference.  

 

For a WR in PPR, Adams had a top 10 season in 2017.  Predicting he'll do much worse (he would need to for the likes of Howard, CMcC, Alshon, etc. to surpass him) in 16 games with Rogers and a leaky defense strikes me as way too pessimistic.  I'll take one of the big 4 RBs and Adams in the first two rounds of a PPR twelve teamer in a heartbeat.  As others have said, the Rodgers/Adams combo is as rock solid as any QB/WR combo in the league right now.

 

 

 

You make a good point, that the Adams of today is not the Devante “Droppy” Adams of yesterday. That’s always been Green Bay’s thing, find raw talent and mold it. And I do believe that Adams will have a good year (like I’ve said in this thread), but I am more skeptical about his value-vs.-ADP (as I’ve mentioned as well).

 

In part, I have yet to see Adams gel with Rodgers as a lead WR, and I remember seeing Rodgers’ frustrated face numerous times in 2015 (when Adams was less than mediocre in the number one role: 50 rec. / 483 yards / 1 TD. James Jones had the same amount of receptions plus 300 more yards and 7 more TDs). Adams did much better as Rodgers #2 in 2016, 997 yards / 12 TDs as defenses tried and failed to cover Jordy, Rodgers #1 WR and the #1 WR for the year (97 rec. / 1257 yards / 14 TDs).

 

I suggest that we owners be wary, asking the questions, Does Adams have the talent to be a #1 WR? (Noting that last year, part of Adams’ success stemmed from defenses shutting down the Nelson/Hundley mess.) Is this reminiscent of Jordan Matthews, who averaged 925 yards / 8 TDs his first two years serving as the Eagles’ #2, but then when he became the Eagles’ #1 WR was shut down? Can’t say “yes” or “no” to this Adams’ question, not yet, but I think it’s a fair question until we see otherwise.

 

In Michael Lombardi’s podcast last week, he creates an analogy to the art world and uses the word “fraud” to connote a WR who is overrated and overpaid; here, he’s referring to Cooks as an example, and while I’m not saying that Adams is another example, I’m only suggesting that the jury is still out until we see Rodgers + Adams producing top numbers together with Adams drawing the best coverage as the GB #1. I agree with your implication—and with the leaning of this thread—that Rodgers could easily elevate Adams’ game, and it’s fair to suggest that in 2019 Adams might be a first round value based on an excellent 2018 season. Yet, I’m skeptical until I see it, and Confucian wisdom applies to predicting bust candidates: the cautious seldom err.

 

As if my needing to see proof isn’t enough, we have Jimmy Graham in the equation. Graham has not missed any games since his microfracture surgery (32 straight games), so safe to say the surgery was a success. He was also the #4 TE last year, and #2 the year before. I’d suggest that Graham will be more than just a red zone threat next year, despite Rodger’s preferences for WRs over TEs.

 

But again, back to your point: Adams has improved. And I’ll look to be more open-minded moving forward, but if I drafted today, Adams is not my second round pick; if he somehow lasted into Round 3, I’d snatch him up immediately. In auction, it’s easier to finagle numbers, and I’ll have Adams on several squads. For me, Cobb’s depressed ADP seems like a better value right now. Jimmy Graham, I imagine, will prompt a hype train moving towards August, and I’d expect his ADP to elevate up to Round 4, potentially Round 3, the latter removing elements of a “bargain” pick.

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If the plan is to take a WR in the 2nd round, you could do worse than D. Adams.

 

I’d take him over M. Evans, AJ Green, TY Hilton, and T. Hill.

 

Last year Adam proved he could put up good numbers even with a mediocre QB throwing to him.  

 

With Nelson gone, Adams will put up true WR1 numbers.  

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Am I the only one not convinced he is going to be worth his ADP?

 

Obviously someone is going to have to eat and the depth chart isn't very deep at the WR position but Adams has been very dependent on TDs. While Graham has been a bum, he has still been good in the redzone. I don't doubt that Adams can produce top 7 or so WR numbers I just wouldn't bet on it. He reminds me more of Crabtree than an elite WR. 

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6 minutes ago, Gohawks said:

Am I the only one not convinced he is going to be worth his ADP?

 

Obviously someone is going to have to eat and the depth chart isn't very deep at the WR position but Adams has been very dependent on TDs. While Graham has been a bum, he has still been good in the redzone. I don't doubt that Adams can produce top 7 or so WR numbers I just wouldn't bet on it. He reminds me more of Crabtree than an elite WR. 

 

I just see the door being wide open to being near the league leaders in targets, with Aaron Rodgers as his QB.    He wont have to be as TD dependent if he gets 30-40 more targets than he got the last time Rodgers played 16 games.     With Graham, I think there's enough to go around to feed both.    As for the Crabtree thing, honestly, that's not a terrible comparison- but if Crabtree at age 25 was set to be Aaron Rodgers's #1 WR, would he not be a stud?   I wont argue that Adams is as good a player as Julio Jones or even Mike Evans........but I'll argue that he's got THE plum gig short of Antonio Brown, and he's good enough to make it pay. 

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Posted (edited)
18 minutes ago, Gohawks said:

Am I the only one not convinced he is going to be worth his ADP?

 

Obviously someone is going to have to eat and the depth chart isn't very deep at the WR position but Adams has been very dependent on TDs. While Graham has been a bum, he has still been good in the redzone. I don't doubt that Adams can produce top 7 or so WR numbers I just wouldn't bet on it. He reminds me more of Crabtree than an elite WR. 

adams and graham could each have a big season and only catch 60 - 70% of Rodgers TD passes

 

Also consider that Adams is going into offseason and camp as the #1.   Different than being expected to step in after a season ending injury to Jordy.  He’s a lot better player now too.

Not elite— but the situation is.  

 

Edited by Impreza178
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56 minutes ago, seanismorris said:

If the plan is to take a WR in the 2nd round, you could do worse than D. Adams.

 

I’d take him over M. Evans, AJ Green, TY Hilton, and T. Hill.

This blows my mind.

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6 hours ago, dashoe said:

This is simple. Captain Always Pass Never Run The Ball Rodgers is going to throw and throw and throw until his arm falls of to keep his team competitive in a stacked NFC. Davante is going to catch alot of balls.  I would take him as my wr1 in every format.

Period :D

But Rodgers threw less passes per game last year than Brett Hundley did...

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25 minutes ago, Gohawks said:

Am I the only one not convinced he is going to be worth his ADP?

 

Obviously someone is going to have to eat and the depth chart isn't very deep at the WR position but Adams has been very dependent on TDs. While Graham has been a bum, he has still been good in the redzone. I don't doubt that Adams can produce top 7 or so WR numbers I just wouldn't bet on it. He reminds me more of Crabtree than an elite WR. 

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23 minutes ago, RMJ_12 said:

But Rodgers threw less passes per game last year than Brett Hundley did...

 

 

But Rodgers threw more yards per pass/catch/game/average  downfield chunky plays etc

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17 minutes ago, RMJ_12 said:

This blows my mind.

This isn’t a competition of who the better receiver is.  AJ. Green was #10 last year, and it looks like they want to run the ball more.

 

M. Evans didn’t get the number of targets, and the TD’s went elsewhere.  He was barely above R. Anderson in PPR, and behind D. Thomas.

 

TY Hilton isn’t currently in the 2nd round consideration, because he has a gimpy QB.  I wouldn’t consider him in the 3rd either...

 

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Posted (edited)
1 hour ago, seanismorris said:

If the plan is to take a WR in the 2nd round, you could do worse than D. Adams.

 

I’d take him over M. Evans, AJ Green, TY Hilton, and T. Hill.

 

Last year Adam proved he could put up good numbers even with a mediocre QB throwing to him.  

 

With Nelson gone, Adams will put up true WR1 numbers.  

I'm not taking him over Evans, Green, or Hill IMO

 

They are vastly superior in terms of talent, too much so to take someone in a better fantasy environment.

Edited by beotos

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1 minute ago, dashoe said:

 

 

But Rodgers threw more yards per pass/catch/game/average  downfield chunky plays etc

This is a strange discussion...  

 

Huntley isn’t a good QB, and Rodgers is an elite who elevates his receivers.

 

I think we’re on the same page.  Comparing the number of targets of Rodgers vs. Huntley is crazy.  Rodgers is enormously more accurate.

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This seems to be a prime debate of talent vs situation. The problem is, I just find that around his ADP there are plenty of elite talents in solid situations and I rather have that over a solid talent in an elite situation.

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1 minute ago, beotos said:

I'm not taking him over Evans, Green, or Hill IMO

 

 

I would take him over Hill because u havea rookie QB and Andy Reid calling plays with an effective running game whereas in GB Rodgers will throw before and audible every run plat into a pass.

Evans is a coin flip for me because TB has alot of guys who can effectively catch the ball

I also think GB is going to be playing from behind alot

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1 minute ago, Gohawks said:

This seems to be a prime debate of talent vs situation. The problem is, I just find that around his ADP there are plenty of elite talents in solid situations and I rather have that over a solid talent in an elite situation.

 

I'm betting on volume in an offense that loves to throw the ball with arguably the best QB in the NFL who has a history of punishing defenses that makes mistakes with big plays.

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3 minutes ago, beotos said:

I'm not taking him over Evans, Green, or Hill IMO

 

They are vastly superior in terms of talent, too much so to take someone in a better fantasy environment.

I like T. Hill but not in the 2nd round.  

 

He was #9 last year, and while I don’t expect his ranking to drop much, I expect his consistency will.

 

I like Mahomes but taking Hill in their 1st year together (in the 2nd) is to much.  

 

Superior WR talent vs. vastly superior QB 

 

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9 minutes ago, Gohawks said:

This seems to be a prime debate of talent vs situation. The problem is, I just find that around his ADP there are plenty of elite talents in solid situations and I rather have that over a solid talent in an elite situation.

It’s not like Jordy is elite either.  He has top end speed, tough to jam, and good hands- but you won’t confuse him with Julio or Beckham anytime soon.  It’s the fact GB will always rely on Rodgers to be Superman.    And he often delivers. 

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Just so everyone is looking at the same thing... (PPR)

https://www.fantasypros.com/nfl/rankings/ppr-cheatsheets.php

 

I expect the ranking to change, but I’m looking at RB-RB with my target being Fournette.

 

These WR’s are my backup plan for round 2 (12 person PPR).

 

We saw a significant decline in Evan and Green’s production last year.  I don’t see a huge improvement in 2018.  Hill is a question mark with upside, and I also expect he’ll be undervalued.  Adams is the safest WR, and he has upside.  He’s the most likely to have 10+ TDs.

 

I’m betting on Rodgers, with a bad defense, to lean on his #1 receiver.  Adams isn’t Jordy, but he can be top5 in fantasy.

 

 

 

 

 

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Posted (edited)

 PFF

Davante Adams, Green Bay Packers

To answer our initial question, Adams’ season by adjusted-WR Rating was indeed superior to Hill’s. His +30.7 differential actually ranks 10th-best by any wide receiver of the PFF era (since 2007). Fellow wide receiver Randall Cobb also ranked within the top-20, while Jordy Nelson (the PFF-era leader in WR Rating) ranked bottom-20 for the first time in his career. Perhaps this played a role in his departure, but in either case both Adams and Cobb appear to be strong ADP values assuming more available targets and a healthy return of Aaron Rodgers.

 

https://www.profootballfocus.com/news/fantasy-football-metrics-that-matter-adjusted-wr-rating

 

Jordy Nelson leads all wide receivers in career WR Rating this past decade, but fell to just 72.6 last year. Davante Adams, meanwhile, was far more impressive, and especially so considering 61 percent of his targets came from Brett Hundley(70.6 passer rating in 2017). Perhaps this played a role in Green Bay’s decision to release Nelson and sign Adams to a four-year, $58 million extension. After finishing sixth-best in fantasy points per game last year, he seems like a safe investment at ADP WR9 with a healthy Aaron Rodgers and less competition for targets.

Edited by seanismorris

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2 hours ago, seanismorris said:

This is a strange discussion...  

 

Huntley isn’t a good QB, and Rodgers is an elite who elevates his receivers.

 

I think we’re on the same page.  Comparing the number of targets of Rodgers vs. Huntley is crazy.  Rodgers is enormously more accurate.

What's crazy?  Hundley targeted Adams more than Rodgers did.  It's the same reason Deandre Hopkins was better with Tom Savage than he was with Deshaun Watson even though Watson dominated.

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2 hours ago, seanismorris said:

This isn’t a competition of who the better receiver is.  AJ. Green was #10 last year, and it looks like they want to run the ball more.

 

M. Evans didn’t get the number of targets, and the TD’s went elsewhere.  He was barely above R. Anderson in PPR, and behind D. Thomas.

 

TY Hilton isn’t currently in the 2nd round consideration, because he has a gimpy QB.  I wouldn’t consider him in the 3rd either...

 

Always take talent, it wins out in the end.

 

We aren't talking about 2017 with those WR's anymore.  If we're talking about the past there's basically no excuse for Adams 2015 flop without Jordy on the field.

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5 minutes ago, RMJ_12 said:

Always take talent, it wins out in the end.

 

We aren't talking about 2017 with those WR's anymore.  If we're talking about the past there's basically no excuse for Adams 2015 flop without Jordy on the field.

I’m taking talent, Aaron Rodger’s talent + an ascending WR + a much better situation.

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12 minutes ago, RMJ_12 said:

What's crazy?  Hundley targeted Adams more than Rodgers did.  It's the same reason Deandre Hopkins was better with Tom Savage than he was with Deshaun Watson even though Watson dominated.

Hundly is getting replaced with Kizer.

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1 hour ago, seanismorris said:

Hundly is getting replaced with Kizer.

You're not getting the point. 

 

Bad QBs often times tend to force feed a target. It's simple human nature that when a situation is unknown or you are uncomfortable you stick to what you know best. That and also bad QBs can't progress through reads. The combination of these things often results a single WR getting an abnormal amount of targets.

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