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2ndCitySox

Anibal Sanchez 2018 Outlook

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ummm...pitching damn well again today. Anyone buying it? It has been awhile since his glory days, but he is back in his NL east stomping grounds. 

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I cannot believe he is 34. Ive been playing fantasy baseball for too long. I might be old enough to move on to cribbage or pinochle.

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96.4% strand rate, walking nearly 4 per 9.  Looks like he’s cut way back on his horrific 4 seam fastball that is piped meat and gone to more of a kitchen sink guy.    Cutter and change usage up.  Still hard to trust a guy that’s been horrid for this long and walking that many.  Have to see a lot more before I’d even think of buying in 12-14 team leagues.

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@brockpapersizer

2 minutes ago, Cmilne23 said:

Cutter and change usage up. 

This is what Brooks says as well in terms of changing pitch mixes.

 

Haven't caught him much myself, because for one who would've thought Anibal was appointment television and for two, I watch the Cubs the least of any team due to blackout restrictions despite the fact that I'm a fan. 

 

Fastball Usage if you're combining 4s and 2s:

2015: 51.92%

2016: 57.41%

2017: 49.51%

2018: 40.08% 

 

The semi-interesting thing to me is that he did have a good K/BB last year. It was actually a whopping 4.10 with a 8.75 K/9 and a 2.13 BB/9. 


The problem is the HR rate, not the K/BB. It's actually kind've shocking how he went from a HR Suppressor to a get killed type. 

2013: 0.45 HR/9

2014: 0.29 HR/9 (this is a ridiculous mark. I know this is pre-binge, but the lowest total in 2017 was 0.67. Even in 2014 the second lowest qualified was 0.40). 

2015: 1.66 HR/9 (Threw 5 Innings short of qualifying. If he had qualified, would've gone from the LOWEST rate in baseball to a tie for the HIGHEST). 

2016: 1.76 HR/9

2017: 2.22 HR/9 (Woof, woof, woof. Even last year with the HR totals the highest mark was 1.92 and only 7 Pitchers were at 1.50 or Higher)

 

So to me it's more about believing in limiting the long-ball/damage than the traditional K/BB. If you believe him Junk-Balling can help him accomplish that you may be willing to buy in. I'm certainly not willing to say much definitive on behalf of Anibal Sanchez at this point in terms of projection, just that this is what I think he needs to have fully ironed out if he wants to succeed. 

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Mlb.com is showing that he has a 20mile difference btwn his fb and changeup like a video game. Is this true?

Edited by papasmurf

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1 hour ago, papasmurf said:

Mlb.com is showing that he has a 20mile difference btwn his fb and changeup like a video game. Is this true?

 

Change is at 80, curve is high 70s.  Fastball averages 90, but he throws it a lot less.  Like a lot lot less. Throwing a cutter more.  He’s probably not this good but this is 7 starts spanning 2.5 months before and after injury.  Somethings different 

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Must be a misclassified cb then. I was looking on mlb gameday and his pitches were mostly on the black and he was locating with everything. 

 

Seems like a typical junkballer who needs to be perfect. If he makes a mistake he pays.

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2 hours ago, kidtwentytwo said:

 

Change is at 80, curve is high 70s.  Fastball averages 90, but he throws it a lot less.  Like a lot lot less. Throwing a cutter more.  He’s probably not this good but this is 7 starts spanning 2.5 months before and after injury.  Somethings different 

 

Considering adding in a SUPER deep league. 

 

Talk me out of it fellas.

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I just read that he's expected to go back to the bullpen once Julio return from the DL on Sunday. I guess Mike Faultyweiner isn't going to need to miss any starts, so that leaves Sanchez as the odd man out for now.

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1 hour ago, phizzics said:

I just read that he's expected to go back to the bullpen once Julio return from the DL on Sunday. I guess Mike Faultyweiner isn't going to need to miss any starts, so that leaves Sanchez as the odd man out for now.

 

Source? I know there was talk of him going back to the pen a while back, but he has been pitching well as a starter now.

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5 hours ago, vmo1059 said:

 

Source? I know there was talk of him going back to the pen a while back, but he has been pitching well as a starter now.

 

From the Atlanta Journal Constitution:

https://www.ajc.com/sports/baseball/anibal-sanchez-has-been-godsend-for-braves-but-future-unclear/3PDYrsFMC3LYCFgiCHR7zH/

"Sanchez didn’t address if he belonged in the rotation, opting to say he’s just thankful for the opportunity. But his manager knows the Braves will eventually have choices to make.

"We've got a good problem,” Snitker said. “We've got more starters than we can probably use right now. And that's something not a lot of teams can say. It’s going to be some tough decisions going forward, as everybody comes back healthy, just to see what we’re going to do.”

 

From Fantrax:

Analysis

"Sanchez was in complete control, as he allowed only two runners to reach scoring position throughout his start. He worked very efficiently -- he needed only 85 pitches to complete his seven innings of work and began 21 of the 25 batters he faced with a strike -- allowing him to match his longest outing of the season. Despite the strong performance, Sanchez may find himself out of the Braves' rotation shortly with Julio Teheran (thumb) expected to return from the disabled list Sunday and Mike Foltynewicz's (tricep) injury looking relatively minor."

 

 

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teheran dating back to the start of last season (last 45 starts) has been brutal overall...small chance of it happening, but why not move him to the pen and ride the hot arm of sanchez?

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11 hours ago, 96mnc said:

 

Considering adding in a SUPER deep league. 

 

Talk me out of it fellas.

 

If a ML pitcher is locked in and consistently hitting his spots, he will usually do well. That's the case with Analball right now. I can't see the games, but I did check out yesterday's highlights on MLB.com. Even though he's barely hitting 90 with his FB, he was getting some real feeble swings and the location was on the black both sides. He had SD tied up in knots.

 

For the season according to mlb.com his foreseam fb is getting exit velocity avg of about 84, that's significantly below league avg. He's also getting it by hitters when he throws it high.

 

Now the flip side of that is, if his command is off and he's missing over the plate, it will be ugly.

 

I am tempted to give him one more shot at home vs. TOR.

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On 6/20/2018 at 11:52 AM, Dunkaroos said:

Anyone have any opinions on streaming him today?

In hindsight, he was ok. Struggled with Morales, couldn't get him out.

 

I will be going with him vs. CIN at home (Harvey) but that's cuz I don't have any better options.

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So this week he’s held the Yankees and brewers in check on the road.  At some point you have to believe this isn’t a complete mirage

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12 minutes ago, kidtwentytwo said:

So this week he’s held the Yankees and brewers in check on the road.  At some point you have to believe this isn’t a complete mirage

His FIP, xFIP, and last 3 years’ numbers say otherwise. His FB velocity is actually down for the 5th year in a row. His BABIP (.241) looks like a complete outlier while has LOB rate is 10% higher than his career average. There’s not much that I see in his numbers that makes me think he rediscovered something. I think he’s been the beneficiary of some good luck and regression looms.

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Also some good stuff happening too though. Soft contact is up, line drive% in line with his best seasons as well as swinging strike% and hard contact%. Not exactly sure what it is he’s doing, but something is working and there’s some numbers that back it up. There’s also some numbers that are worrisome. Could go either way. 

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3 hours ago, meh2 said:

His FIP, xFIP, and last 3 years’ numbers say otherwise. His FB velocity is actually down for the 5th year in a row. His BABIP (.241) looks like a complete outlier while has LOB rate is 10% higher than his career average. There’s not much that I see in his numbers that makes me think he rediscovered something. I think he’s been the beneficiary of some good luck and regression looms.

 

A lot of soft contact. Also, if you watched the game today on FS1, he basically lives on the edges of the strike zone. He just can’t make too many mistakes because his stuff isn’t dominant or anything, but he’s been commanding his pitches well.

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5 hours ago, kidtwentytwo said:

So this week he’s held the Yankees and brewers in check on the road.  At some point you have to believe this isn’t a complete mirage

 

Him and Jordan Zimmerman went out and discovered the Fountain of Youth this off season.  The same one CC ran across not too long ago.

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1 hour ago, herschel said:

anyone know if hes lined up for 2 starts this week?  cbs only has him going once....

 

Yet CBS has him listed in the 2-start pitcher rankings for this week. Fantrax doesn't have him listed for a second start, and ESPN doesn't have any Braves starters listed past Wednesday. I started him in the weeklies where I own him just in case, but I don't know.

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It would be nice to know whether he's starting again this week. Yahoo doesn't have him starting again until next week. Is Atlanta throwing a 6 man rotation ?

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6 minutes ago, fletch44 said:

It would be nice to know whether he's starting again this week. Yahoo doesn't have him starting again until next week. Is Atlanta throwing a 6 man rotation ?

 

I'm guessing Atlanta doesn't know either depending on how/when they might clinch their division.  How many do they need to clinch?

 

If he doesn't start again until next week that could make him a 2-game starter that week so H2H owners may have a toss-up on desires and of course it doesn't really matter much in roto except that he avoids the Phillies if he doesn't start on Sunday.

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