BrianM

Doug Baldwin 2018 Outlook

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2 hours ago, kyoun1e said:

 

Read something somewhere today indicating Baldwin was blocking on half of his snaps.

 

Yuck! Dropsville! I'm seriously considering it...I need to find WRs that have a chance of busting out now...not this crap. 

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Considering how much they ran I’m sure half his snaps were run plays. What’s the alternative running a route on a run play?

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1 hour ago, PlayTheWaivers said:

 

Yuck! Dropsville! I'm seriously considering it...I need to find WRs that have a chance of busting out now...not this crap. 

Last year he was the second highest scoring receiver between weeks 8-16.....

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1 hour ago, meverett85 said:

Last year he was the second highest scoring receiver between weeks 8-16.....

....and healthy

 

Dropping him is definitely a bit extreme but expectations need to be seriously reeled in. 

Edited by Jaw1

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1 hour ago, meverett85 said:

Last year he was the second highest scoring receiver between weeks 8-16.....

 

I'm not sure what thread you meant to post this stat in, but it sure as hell wasn't this one.

 

He was the second highest scoring receiver *On the Seahawks* last year between weeks 8-16... (If you play in 1.5ppr for TE leagues and count Jimmy Graham as a receiver.)

 

Only other explanation is that you just woke up from a coma and think it's 2016.

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8 hours ago, kyoun1e said:

 

Read something somewhere today indicating Baldwin was blocking on half of his snaps.

 

I’m in PPR.  Not PPB

 

UGH

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9 hours ago, FFCollusion said:

 

I'm not sure what thread you meant to post this stat in, but it sure as hell wasn't this one.

 

He was the second highest scoring receiver *On the Seahawks* last year between weeks 8-16... (If you play in 1.5ppr for TE leagues and count Jimmy Graham as a receiver.)

 

Only other explanation is that you just woke up from a coma and think it's 2016.

 

So, the insinuation here is that people are holding onto the name, not the reality of the situation- which is that Doug Baldwin is a less than effective asset on a team with low passing volume and seems to want to run the ball more.

 

AKA WR3 ceiling rock-bottom floor? At this point, why hold on?

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We really only have one game this season to judge him by. I had him last season and he was a beast, so I'm a little optimistic of him turning it around.

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Big name and very very small game.  Baldwin is the spiritual leader of this Seahawk team but he's obviously playing at far less than 100% health.  I would not drop, though.  Time to trade this guy to someone who shrewdly (yet foolishly) thinks they are "buying low" on Doug Baldwin, and primed for his second-half explosion that will never arrive.

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19 minutes ago, WVFalcon said:

We really only have one game this season to judge him by. I had him last season and he was a beast, so I'm a little optimistic of him turning it around.

The game plan changed so much between 2018 vs 2017. They weren't able to run the ball much in 2017. Now, 3 games... Since week 2... They were able to strongly make plays in the running Dept, between Carson and Davis... That limits the need to pass... 

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Maybe I'm a fool but I'm still optimistic about Baldwin. A better run game should open up a better passing game. Especially in high scoring games (possibly this week against Oakland).

 

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6 minutes ago, ADDwithFF said:

Maybe I'm a fool but I'm still optimistic about Baldwin. A better run game should open up a better passing game. Especially in high scoring games (possibly this week against Oakland).

 

 I am with you. He is at worst a stash for the next few weeks, especially for after the bye.

 

He burned me this week, he is the sole reason I lost. I am still not going to drop him so he gets picked up by someone else, and get beat by him him again haha

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10 minutes ago, Szer0 said:

The game plan changed so much between 2018 vs 2017. They weren't able to run the ball much in 2017. Now, 3 games... Since week 2... They were able to strongly make plays in the running Dept, between Carson and Davis... That limits the need to pass... 

 

What about when they had Beast Mode and they were running and passing? I’m pretty sure they’d like to get the passing game going and it starts and ends with Baldwin. 

 

Furthermore, if you’re planning on going the whole season relying on a running game featuring Carson and Davis to win games yofukt.

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14 minutes ago, Asian Sensation said:

 

What about when they had Beast Mode and they were running and passing? I’m pretty sure they’d like to get the passing game going and it starts and ends with Baldwin. 

 

Furthermore, if you’re planning on going the whole season relying on a running game featuring Carson and Davis to win games yofukt.

I got no horse in this discussion. Just stating the obvious here. Compare the pass and rush attempts for Russ Wilson from the years' past... There is just a disturbing trend going on. 

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26 minutes ago, Asian Sensation said:

 

What about when they had Beast Mode and they were running and passing? I’m pretty sure they’d like to get the passing game going and it starts and ends with Baldwin. 

 

Furthermore, if you’re planning on going the whole season relying on a running game featuring Carson and Davis to win games yofukt.

 

Carson and Davis looked like two of the most bruising RB in the NFL against the Rams.

The hawks game plan is working - and would be a strong strategy other than the fact that their defense is no longer elite and simply upper-middle of the pack.  

Vs most non-rams competition if they keep doing what they're doing they'll be giving themselves a good chance to win.  I think Baldwin is a guy you try to ship out for pennies and try to get some other shmuck to insert him into their starting lineup.  getting 2-7 points from him weekly in your WR2 or Flex spot will lose you games.

 

 

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5 hours ago, Szer0 said:

The game plan changed so much between 2018 vs 2017. They weren't able to run the ball much in 2017. Now, 3 games... Since week 2... They were able to strongly make plays in the running Dept, between Carson and Davis... That limits the need to pass... 

 

Yeah I see that, but there are going to be games they have to abandon the run. Baldwin has been Wilson's favorite target for years even when they had beast mode. We have years of samples that shows how good the wilson/baldwin combo is. I'm not going to let one pooper game discourage me too much. 

Edited by WVFalcon

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Simple overreaction. He lost me this week too, but I’m just happy he played his normal snaps. This week against the Raiders (who have no one to chase Russ around), he will have his breakout game.

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17 minutes ago, TonyRomo said:

Simple overreaction. He lost me this week too, but I’m just happy he played his normal snaps. This week against the Raiders (who have no one to chase Russ around), he will have his breakout game.

Then he can have it on my bench because I'm sure as hell not starting him until he has a decent fantasy game.

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8 hours ago, Asian Sensation said:

What about when they had Beast Mode and they were running and passing?

You mean back when Baldwin sucked, before he was fantasy relevant?  What about it?

Baldwin didn't breakout until the 2nd half of 2015, after Marshawn Lynch went down with an injury in week 7.

 

Through the first half of 2015 Doug Baldwin averaged 5 targets, 4 catches, and 43 yards a game, with a grand total of 2 TDs.

Through the second half of 2015 Doug Baldwin averaged 8 targets, 6 catches, and 90 yards a game, with a grand total of 12 TDs.

 

9 hours ago, PlayTheWaivers said:

So, the insinuation here is that people are holding onto the name, not the reality of the situation- which is that Doug Baldwin is a less than effective asset on a team with low passing volume and seems to want to run the ball more.

 

AKA WR3 ceiling rock-bottom floor? At this point, why hold on?

 

Not quite.  I dislike Baldwin, have for years, because of his week to week volatility, and the over-valuing of him every single year by people who only care about year end results, despite the game we play weekly, insisting he's a 2nd or 3rd round caliber WR, when he's not.  Having said that, no one should be dropping Doug Baldwin.  Doug Baldwin's floor has always been basement dweller.  His ceiling is top 5 WR in any given week.  That's what you drafted, that's what you get, and personally, I don't think any of you have a right to complain.  You bought a rich man's D.Jax, who's 30 years old, and literally told you he wasn't 100% entering the year.  You reap what you sow.  I don't think I would start him next week, plus the week 7 bye.  From week 8 on, IF you own him, AND don't have blatantly better options, then you should probably just ride the train until there's more evidence to judge him off of.  Snap counts, routes run, monitor the run game, Wilson's total attempts, total plays etc.  

 

My analysis on Baldwin this year:

On 6/27/2018 at 5:21 PM, FFCollusion said:

Doug Baldwin on the other hand...
I'd rather watch Josh Gordon flame out, than to suffer a season of Doug Baldwin's mediocrity.

 

His career best year only got him to 10th. (2015)

The next year he scored less fantasy points, but because he finished higher (aka the field sucked) people wanted to pretend he was trending up with Wilson. (2016)

Then in 2017 he takes another step backwards, fails to break 1,000 yards, has his lowest catch rate and reception totals in years, despite Russell Wilson having career highs in fantasy points, pass attempts, and Touchdowns.

 

On top of that, Doug Baldwin is now being drafted HIGHER than he was last year, and you want to call it a discount?

People in this thread want to talk about overratted WRs, then stop pointing the finger at Jarvis Landry and take a look at Doug Baldwin.

 

Doug Baldwin finished 14th overall last year.  These are his weekly finishes, weeks 1-16:

39th, 37th, 9th, 63rd, 47th, 5th, 26th, 4th, 22nd, 32nd, 81st, 24th, 18th, 105th, 18th.

 

Doug Baldwin is a glorified DeSean Jackson, Mike Wallace, Torrey Smith, Ted Ginn Jr that somehow people have convinced themselves is different.  3 Great weeks that inflate his yearly totals, 8 weeks he destroys your team, and 4 weeks of whatever.

*No Offense to D.Jax and Wallace who were actually legit in their prime.

 

10th WR off the board, and 26th player overall.  Absolutely insane.

 

And before someone even tries to make the claim, NO, 2017 was not an outlier, his game logs for 2016 looked the exact same.  In fact, you can find this exact warning label in his 2016 thread, where I explained ad nauseam to people that he didn't deserve to be drafted as the 11th WR off the board, 25th overall.

2018 is no different.  He doesn't deserve to be drafted as the 10th WR off the board, 26th overall.

He wasn't a value last year, I don't know how he could be considered a value this year.  You are drastically overpaying, because one time 4 seasons ago, he had 14 TDs.  Age effects everyone differently, but food for thought, Baldwin will be 30 years old at the start of this season.

 

Do not be fooled by position by attrition.

 

Good luck.

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29 minutes ago, pjbyrne707 said:

Buy low or naw

Might as well. You can get him really low right now. He still has top 25 potential, and has a history or turning it on in the 2nd half

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3 hours ago, FFCollusion said:

You mean back when Baldwin sucked, before he was fantasy relevant?  What about it?

Baldwin didn't breakout until the 2nd half of 2015, after Marshawn Lynch went down with an injury in week 7.

 

Through the first half of 2015 Doug Baldwin averaged 5 targets, 4 catches, and 43 yards a game, with a grand total of 2 TDs.

Through the second half of 2015 Doug Baldwin averaged 8 targets, 6 catches, and 90 yards a game, with a grand total of 12 TDs.

 

 

 

He broke out despite Marshawn going down not in spite of him getting injured. During the games Marshawn missed....  Rawls got the start and he was absolutely balling. He finished with 800+ yards and 4 tds on the season with pretty much all those numbers coming in the 7 games he started. Those could’ve been Marshawn’s numbers instead. The breakout was bound to happen regardless who started in the backfield. 

 

I’m not a Baldwin fan or apologist but he’s a damn good player that’s flown under the radar the last few years despite his impressive numbers. With the run game showing signs of life, the defense sucking and his health improving he’s a solid hold for me. 

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Seattle fan here, and am a fan of Baldwin. The offense has completely changed, going back into the stone age. They committed to the run before the season began by stupidly drafting an RB in the 1st. No receiver in this offense will be a top option. They just don't run enough plays and that's the way they like it.

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Yahoo has an insane 14 pt projection for him this week in half ppr.

 

 

 

Edited by Fuzzy_Slippers
Removed CSB

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