BrianM

Doug Baldwin 2018 Outlook

Recommended Posts

1 hour ago, mverkruyse said:

The Seahawks brought in Brian Schottenheimer specifically so that they could transform back into a run-oriented offense, like their most successful years in 2013/2014.

 

If you look at the team leaders for WR those seasons, you have:

 

2013 - Golden Tate, 64/898/5

2014 - Doug Baldwin, 66/825/3

 

They had a generational Marshawn in those years, and an all-time great defense, so there may be a tad more passing then back then, but it's not unreasonable to think Baldwin finishes the season at a pro-rated ~65/900/5 pace (I know he's sucked so far, so he probably won't hit those numbers--hence why I said pro-rated).

 

Is that droppable? Depends on the league, it's definitely a rosterable WR3 (who will have some high WR2 games) in a 12 teamer, but not the consistent low WR1, high WR2 that people were hoping for on draft day.

 

TLDR: 

 

Seahawks want to run more (and are succeeding running more). Baldwin won't be a WR1, he also probably shouldn't be dropped. 

 

Well, team's can still want to run the ball and have a productive WR. Seattle's WR are probably among the worst in the league. Baldwin should be netting a 30 percent share of the targets, meaning there's no reason why he can't average 4-5 catches as a floor with upside. Instead, he's seeing a low target share and his targets, as a result, are historically low

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Well I just traded Baldwin. It was part of a larger deal and he was just a sweetener. I probably didn't even have to throw him in but it easier to stomach that flat dropping him. 

In before 2 td game!!

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

This upcoming game feels like one of those "reverse trap" games. Everyone is down on baldwin, paired with a winnable matchup out of the slot means he'll probalby have a good game.

 

It seems plenty likley that moore is a bit of a flash in the pan -- and that baldwin is due for a TD. 

 

I'm still not sure i have the guts to start him since i have other options this week.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

He has done nothing but f--- me over this year so, it would be fitting that i bench him for a risky start in flex like duke or trequan smith and he explodes. I just cant start him again tho until he shows some signs of life. 

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

With Diggs likely out, I'm forced to start him this week. I'm praying for a shootout and a TD to salvage the game, but it feels like he just doesn't have it anymore. :(

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

While he didn't go off, it was better than nothing.  Still think he will be hit and miss.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Yeah he's not good enough to be rostered on my team anymore.  I need a Def this week so he's gone.  I'm done with you Baldwin.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

In a 10 team PPR, I legit might drop. How can you feel confident starting him? Hes merely a flex option at this point. Plenty of replacements on the WW for that

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
3 minutes ago, DerekQ said:

Held out of Wednesday’s practice with a groin injury. 

Yeah I dropped him today for Corey Davis before this news hit...the Hawks just do not throw enough and he was playing hurt already so not surprising injuries are popping up elsewhere as he compensates for the bad knee

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
3 hours ago, pjbyrne707 said:

Should’ve been dropped weeks ago 

 

Hopefully next year folks will stop downplaying preseason injuries on players who became relevant off injuries to other players lol

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Upside looks good. Doug is gonna have a big second half. He’s the number 1 WR option on Seattle, he’ll score a ton from here on out. WR1 ros.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
4 hours ago, Jrt80 said:

Upside looks good. Doug is gonna have a big second half. He’s the number 1 WR option on Seattle, he’ll score a ton from here on out. WR1 ros.

 

Not if he injured his groin. 

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Groin injuries, and all his others are really tanking this guy.

 

There are definitely better low risk

options now. 

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
Just now, RoseLin23 said:

I'm starting him this week. God help me. I have no other options.

I’m with you partner. God speed.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

If you havent dropped already, just do yourself a favor and stop holding out for that 2nd half resurgence. Were in the 2nd half, this isnt the same offense. Hes a risky flex at best, theres plenty of those on the Wire. Such a shame.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
47 minutes ago, Broncos132 said:

If you havent dropped already, just do yourself a favor and stop holding out for that 2nd half resurgence. Were in the 2nd half, this isnt the same offense. Hes a risky flex at best, theres plenty of those on the Wire. Such a shame.

 

Yeah I've stubbornly held onto him until now due to his theoretical borderline WR1 upside with enough solid WRs to hold me over. After finally leading the Seahawks in receiving last week I gave him another shot thinking the Rams after losing to Saints would crush the Seahawks and force them out of their conservative ultra-run happy ways. However, once again the Seahawks formula largely worked and it doesn't even seem to matter who they have at RB. 

 

Health aside (although I think he has looked better) I don't think Baldwin has WR1 upside in this style Seahawks offense. When Wilson does pass it he is spreading it around so even if Baldwin does have a big game one of these days he'll be tough to rely on week to week. With BYE weeks mostly done and benches tightening I'm probably dumping him for a handcuff RB or playoff defense. 

 

 

  • Like 1

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

I think this week was the final nail for most

 

i thought it was pretty telling that, down 12 with four minutes left, the Seahawks are still out there trying to run the ball. They are simply uninterested in throwing it more than 15-20 times a game. 

 

just wish I knew this before I drafted him

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
3 minutes ago, smash10033 said:

Probably !   I dropped him :lol:

Dropped his a** this morning.  Good riddance!!! Cant trust ya, cant keep ya.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Join the conversation

You can post now and register later. If you have an account, sign in now to post with your account.

Guest
Reply to this topic...

×   Pasted as rich text.   Paste as plain text instead

  Only 75 emoji are allowed.

×   Your link has been automatically embedded.   Display as a link instead

×   Your previous content has been restored.   Clear editor

×   You cannot paste images directly. Upload or insert images from URL.

Loading...